A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for causal inference using time-series observational data on mixed outcomes.

Assessing the impact of an intervention by using time-series observational data on multiple units and outcomes is a frequent problem in many fields of scientific research. Here, we propose a novel Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for estimating intervention effects in such settings and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the high-dimensional and nontractable posterior of interest. The proposed method is one of the few that can simultaneously deal with outcomes of mixed type (continuous, binomial, count), increase efficiency in the estimates of the causal effects by jointly modeling multiple outcomes affected by the intervention, and easily provide uncertainty quantification for all causal estimands of interest. Using the proposed approach, we evaluate the impact that Local Tracing Partnerships had on the effectiveness of England's Test and Trace programme for COVID-19.

Neisseria meningitidis presenting as acute abdomen and recurrent reactive pericarditis

ABSTRACT Meningococcal meningitis is a well established potential fatal infection characterized by fever, headache, petechial rash, and vomiting in the majority of cases. However, protean manifestations including abdominal pain, sore throat, diarrhea and cough, even though rare, should not be overlooked. Similarly, although disseminated infection could potentially involve various organ-targets, secondary immune related complications including joints or pericardium should be dealt with caution, since they remain unresponsive to appropriate antibiotic regimens. We hereby report the rare case of an otherwise healthy adult female, presenting with acute abdominal pain masking Neisseria meningitidis serotype B meningitis, later complicated with recurrent reactive pericarditis despite appropriate antibiotic treatment. There follows a review of current literature.

Neisseria meningitidis presenting as acute abdomen and recurrent reactive pericarditis.

Meningococcal meningitis is a well established potential fatal infection characterized by fever, headache, petechial rash, and vomiting in the majority of cases. However, protean manifestations including abdominal pain, sore throat, diarrhea and cough, even though rare, should not be overlooked. Similarly, although disseminated infection could potentially involve various organ-targets, secondary immune related complications including joints or pericardium should be dealt with caution, since they remain unresponsive to appropriate antibiotic regimens. We hereby report the rare case of an otherwise healthy adult female, presenting with acute abdominal pain masking Neisseria meningitidis serotype B meningitis, later complicated with recurrent reactive pericarditis despite appropriate antibiotic treatment. There follows a review of current literature.