Evaluation of Statistical Treatment of Left-Censored Contamination Data: Example Involving Deoxynivalenol Occurrence in Pasta and Pasta Substitute Products.

The handling of data on food contamination frequently represents a challenge because these are often left-censored, being composed of both positive and non-detected values. The latter observations are not quantified and provide only the information that they are below a laboratory-specific threshold value. Besides deterministic approaches, which simplify the treatment through the substitution of non-detected values with fixed threshold or null values, a growing interest has been shown in the application of stochastic approaches to the treatment of unquantified values. In this study, a multiple imputation procedure was applied in order to analyze contamination data on deoxynivalenol, a mycotoxin that may be present in pasta and pasta substitute products. An application of the proposed technique to censored deoxynivalenol occurrence data is presented. The results were compared to those attained using deterministic techniques (substitution methods). In this context, the stochastic approach seemed to provide a more accurate, unbiased and realistic solution to the problem of left-censored occurrence data. The complete sample of values could then be used to estimate the exposure of the general population to deoxynivalenol based on consumption data.

Quality of life and sexual functioning among endometrial cancer patients treated with one week adjuvant high-dose-rate vaginal brachytherapy schedule.

Purpose: To examine quality of life (QOL) and sexual functioning in a series of patients with intermediate- and high-intermediate risk endometrial cancer, treated with exclusive adjuvant one week high-dose-rate (HDR) vaginal brachytherapy (VBT) schedule. Material and methods: Between July 2008 and October 2013, 55 patients with diagnosis of endometrial cancer were treated with adjuvant exclusive VBT. All patients had undergone surgical treatment with a laparotomy approach before VBT. Post-operative VBT was administered 6-8 weeks after surgery. Treatment was delivered to vaginal vault using Nucletron HDR unit with iridium-192 source at a dose of 21 Gy/3 fractions of 7 Gy each, three times a week, every other day, prescribed at 0.5 cm depth of vaginal wall, and 3 cm in length from the apex. QOL was assessed using European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) quality of life questionnaire Core-30 (QLQ-C30), and EORTC cancer-specific quality of life questionnaire (QLQ-CX24). Results: Median follow-up time was 92 months (range, 42-162 months). Questionnaires were carried out respectively at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months after the end of BT. Response rate to questionnaires was 100% (n = 55). Nineteen patients (35%) answered all the questions of surveys, while 36 patients (65%) completed the surveys, except for questions on sex activity, vaginal function, and sex enjoyment. Longitudinal analysis during 5-year follow-up period showed a statistically significant trend towards worsening of fatigue, constipation, and diarrhea. Overall physical functioning and role functioning was not impaired after VBT. Over the time, sex enjoyment improved, except for elderly patients. For emotional functioning, sex worry and social functioning presented no significant time-related effect. Conclusions: One week brachytherapy schedule to vaginal cuff is generally well-tolerated. QOL does not worsen after applying vaginal brachytherapy.

Minimal Extrathyroidal Extension in Predicting 1-Year Outcomes: A Longitudinal Multicenter Study of Low-to-Intermediate-Risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (ITCO#4).

Background: The role of minimal extrathyroidal extension (mETE) as a risk factor for persistent papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is still debated. The aims of this study were to assess the clinical impact of mETE as a predictor of worse initial treatment response in PTC patients and to verify the impact of radioiodine therapy after surgery in patients with mETE. Methods: We reviewed all records in the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory database and selected 2237 consecutive patients with PTC who satisfied the inclusion criteria (PTC with no lymph node metastases and at least 1 year of follow-up). For each case, we considered initial surgery, histological variant of PTC, tumor diameter, recurrence risk class according to the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification system, use of radioiodine therapy, and initial therapy response, as suggested by ATA guidelines. Results: At 1-year follow-up, 1831 patients (81.8%) had an excellent response, 296 (13.2%) had an indeterminate response, 55 (2.5%) had a biochemical incomplete response, and 55 (2.5%) had a structural incomplete response. Statistical analysis suggested that mETE (odds ratio [OR] 1.16, p = 0.65), tumor size >2 cm (OR 1.45, p = 0.34), aggressive PTC histology (OR 0.55, p = 0.15), and age at diagnosis (OR 0.90, p = 0.32) were not significant risk factors for a worse initial therapy response. When evaluating the combination of mETE, tumor size, and aggressive PTC histology, the presence of mETE with a >2 cm tumor was significantly associated with a worse outcome (OR 5.27 [95% confidence interval], p = 0.014). The role of radioiodine ablation in patients with mETE was also evaluated. When considering radioiodine treatment, propensity score-based matching was performed, and no significant differences were found between treated and nontreated patients (p = 0.24). Conclusions: This study failed to show the prognostic value of mETE in predicting initial therapy response in a large cohort of PTC patients without lymph node metastases. The study suggests that the combination of tumor diameter and mETE can be used as a reliable prognostic factor for persistence and could be easily applied in clinical practice to manage PTC patients with low-to-intermediate risk of recurrent/persistent disease.

Predictors of Lung Cancer Risk: An Ecological Study Using Mortality and Environmental Data by Municipalities in Italy.

Lung cancer (LC) mortality remains a consistent part of the total deaths occurring worldwide. Its etiology is complex as it involves multifactorial components. This work aims in providing an epidemiological assessment on occupational and environmental factors associated to LC risk by means of an ecological study involving the 8092 Italian municipalities for the period 2006-2015. We consider mortality data from mesothelioma as proxy of asbestos exposure, as well as PM2.5 and radon levels as a proxy of environmental origin. The compensated cases for occupational respiratory diseases, urbanization and deprivation were included as predictors. We used a negative binomial distribution for the response, with analysis stratified by gender. We estimated that asbestos is responsible for about 1.1% (95% CI: 0.8, 1.4) and 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2, 0.8) of LC mortality in males and females, respectively. The corresponding figures are 14.0% (95% CI: 12.5, 15.7) and 16.3% (95% CI: 16.2, 16.3) for PM2.5 exposure, and 3.9% (95% CI: 3.5, 4.2) and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.4, 1.7) for radon exposure. The assessment of determinants contribution to observed LC deaths is crucial for improving awareness of its origin, leading to increase the equity of the welfare system.

Selective Use of Radioactive Iodine Therapy for Papillary Thyroid Cancers With Low or Lower-Intermediate Recurrence Risk.

CONTEXT: Current guidelines recommend a selective use of radioiodine treatment (RAI) for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to determine how policy changes affect the use of RAI and the short-term outcomes of patients. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of longitudinal data was conducted in an academic referral center of patients with nonaggressive PTC variants; no extrathyroidal invasion or limited to soft tissues, no distant metastases, and 5 or fewer central-compartment cervical lymph node metastases. In cohort 1, standard treatments were total thyroidectomy and RAI (May 2005-June 2011); in cohort 2 decisions on RAI were deferred for approximately 12 months after surgery (July 2011-December 2018). Propensity score matching was used to adjust for sex, age, tumor size, lymph node status, and extrathyroidal extension. Intervention included immediate RAI or deferred choice. Main outcome measures were responses to initial treatment during 3 or more years of follow-up. RESULTS: In cohort 1, RAI was performed in 50 of 116 patients (51.7%), whereas in cohort 2, it was far less frequent: immediately in 10 of 156 (6.4%), and in 3 more patients after the first follow-up data. The frequencies of structural incomplete response were low (1%-3%), and there were no differences between the 2 cohorts at any follow-up visit. Cohort 2 patients had higher rates of "gray-zone responses" (biochemical incomplete or indeterminate response). CONCLUSION: Selective use of RAI increases the rate of patients with "uncertain" status during early follow-up. The rate of structural incomplete responses remains low regardless of whether RAI is used immediately. Patients should be made aware of the advantages and drawbacks of omitting RAI.

Real-World Performance of the American Thyroid Association Risk Estimates in Predicting 1-Year Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes: A Prospective Multicenter Study of 2000 Patients.

Background: One of the most widely used risk stratification systems for estimating individual patients' risk of persistent or recurrent differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. The 2015 ATA version, which has increased the number of patients considered at low or intermediate risk, has been validated in several retrospective, single-center studies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the real-world performance of the 2015 ATA risk stratification system in predicting the response to treatment 12 months after the initial treatment and to determine the extent to which this performance is affected by the treatment center in which it is used. Methods: A prospective cohort of DTC patients collected by the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory web-based database was analyzed. We reviewed all records present in the database and selected consecutive cases that satisfied inclusion criteria: (i) histological diagnosis of DTC, with the exclusion of noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features; (ii) complete data of the initial treatment and pathological features; and (iii) results of 1-year follow-up visit (6-18 months after the initial treatment), including all data needed to classify the estimated response to treatment. Results: The final cohort was composed of 2071 patients from 40 centers. The ATA risk of persistent/recurrent disease was classified as low in 1109 patients (53.6%), intermediate in 796 (38.4%), and high in 166 (8.0%). Structural incomplete responses were documented in only 86 (4.2%) patients: 1.5% in the low-risk, 5.7% in the intermediate-risk, and 14.5% in the high-risk group. The baseline ATA risk class proved to be a significant predictor of structural persistent disease, both for intermediate-risk (odds ratio [OR] 4.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.59-8.43) and high-risk groups (OR 16.48; CI 7.87-34.5). Individual center did not significantly influence the prediction of the 1-year disease status. Conclusions: The ATA risk stratification system is a reliable predictor of short-term outcomes in patients with DTC in real-world clinical settings characterized by center heterogeneity in terms of size, location, level of care, local management strategies, and resource availability.

Upper bound estimators of the population size based on ordinal models for capture-recapture experiments.

Capture-recapture studies have attracted a lot of attention over the past few decades, especially in applied disciplines where a direct estimate for the size of a population of interest is not available. Epidemiology, ecology, public health, and biodiversity are just a few examples. The estimation of the number of unseen units has been a challenge for theoretical statisticians, and considerable progress has been made in providing lower bound estimators for the population size. In fact, it is well known that consistent estimators for this cannot be provided in the very general case. Considering a case where capture-recapture studies are summarized by a frequency of frequencies distribution, we derive a simple upper bound of the population size based on the cumulative distribution function. We introduce two estimators of this bound, without any specific parametric assumption on the distribution of the observed frequency counts. The behavior of the proposed estimators is investigated using several benchmark datasets and a large-scale simulation experiment based on the scheme discussed by Pledger.

Residual Site Radiotherapy After Immunochemotherapy in Primary Mediastinal B-Cell Lymphoma: A Monoinstitutional Retrospective Study.

AIM: To evaluate the efficacy of residual site radiation therapy (RSRT) on local control (LC), progression-free (PFS) and overall (OS) survival in patients with primary mediastinal lymphoma (PMBCL), following rituximab and chemotherapy treatment (ICHT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 34 patients with PMBCL treated between 2006 and 2014 with ICHT with/without autologous stem cell transplantation and RSRT. Between the end of ICHT/stem cell transplantation and RSRT, patients were evaluated with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography. The gross tumor volume included morphological mediastinal residual disease after ICHT/SCT. The percentage of LC, PFS and OS were assessed. RESULTS: All patients received RSRT with a median dose of 30 Gy. Median follow-up was 82 months. One patient out of 34 (3%) showed progressive disease 9 months from diagnosis. The 10-year PFS and OS were 97% and 97% respectively. CONCLUSION: RSRT in patients with PMBCL treated with ICHT did not impact unfavorably on LC and patient survival.

Finite Mixtures of Hidden Markov Models for Longitudinal Responses Subject to Drop out.

Drop out is a typical issue in longitudinal studies. When the missingness is non-ignorable, inference based on the observed data only may be biased. This paper is motivated by the Leiden 85+ study, a longitudinal study conducted to analyze the dynamics of cognitive functioning in the elderly. We account for dependence between longitudinal responses from the same subject using time-varying random effects associated with a heterogeneous hidden Markov chain. As several participants in the study drop out prematurely, we introduce a further random effect model to describe the missing data mechanism. The potential dependence between the random effects in the two equations (and, therefore, between the two processes) is introduced through a joint distribution specified via a latent structure approach. The application of the proposal to data from the Leiden 85+ study shows its effectiveness in modeling heterogeneous longitudinal patterns, possibly influenced by the missing data process. Results from a sensitivity analysis show the robustness of the estimates with respect to misspecification of the missing data mechanism. A simulation study provides evidence for the reliability of the inferential conclusions drawn from the analysis of the Leiden 85+ data.

A bidimensional finite mixture model for longitudinal data subject to dropout.

In longitudinal studies, subjects may be lost to follow up and, thus, present incomplete response sequences. When the mechanism underlying the dropout is nonignorable, we need to account for dependence between the longitudinal and the dropout process. We propose to model such a dependence through discrete latent effects, which are outcome-specific and account for heterogeneity in the univariate profiles. Dependence between profiles is introduced by using a probability matrix to describe the corresponding joint distribution. In this way, we separately model dependence within each outcome and dependence between outcomes. The major feature of this proposal, when compared with standard finite mixture models, is that it allows the nonignorable dropout model to properly nest its ignorable counterpart. We also discuss the use of an index of (local) sensitivity to nonignorability to investigate the effects that assumptions about the dropout process may have on model parameter estimates. The proposal is illustrated via the analysis of data from a longitudinal study on the dynamics of cognitive functioning in the elderly.

Mixed hidden Markov quantile regression models for longitudinal data with possibly incomplete sequences.

Quantile regression provides a detailed and robust picture of the distribution of a response variable, conditional on a set of observed covariates. Recently, it has be been extended to the analysis of longitudinal continuous outcomes using either time-constant or time-varying random parameters. However, in real-life data, we frequently observe both temporal shocks in the overall trend and individual-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. A benchmark dataset on HIV progression gives a clear example. Here, the evolution of the CD4 log counts exhibits both sudden temporal changes in the overall trend and heterogeneity in the effect of the time since seroconversion on the response dynamics. To accommodate such situations, we propose a quantile regression model, where time-varying and time-constant random coefficients are jointly considered. Since observed data may be incomplete due to early drop-out, we also extend the proposed model in a pattern mixture perspective. We assess the performance of the proposals via a large-scale simulation study and the analysis of the CD4 count data.

Normal human adipose tissue functions and differentiation in patients with biallelic LPIN1 inactivating mutations.

Lipin-1 is a Mg2+-dependent phosphatidic acid phosphatase (PAP) that in mice is necessary for normal glycerolipid biosynthesis, controlling adipocyte metabolism, and adipogenic differentiation. Mice carrying inactivating mutations in the Lpin1 gene display the characteristic features of human familial lipodystrophy. Very little is known about the roles of lipin-1 in human adipocyte physiology. Apparently, fat distribution and weight is normal in humans carrying LPIN1 inactivating mutations, but a detailed analysis of adipose tissue appearance and functions in these patients has not been available so far. In this study, we performed a systematic histopathological, biochemical, and gene expression analysis of adipose tissue biopsies from human patients harboring LPIN1 biallelic inactivating mutations and affected by recurrent episodes of severe rhabdomyolysis. We also explored the adipogenic differentiation potential of human mesenchymal cell populations derived from lipin-1 defective patients. White adipose tissue from human LPIN1 mutant patients displayed a dramatic decrease in lipin-1 protein levels and PAP activity, with a concomitant moderate reduction of adipocyte size. Nevertheless, the adipose tissue develops without obvious histological signs of lipodystrophy and with normal qualitative composition of storage lipids. The increased expression of key adipogenic determinants such as SREBP1, PPARG, and PGC1A shows that specific compensatory phenomena can be activated in vivo in human adipocytes with deficiency of functional lipin-1.

Growth curves of "normal" serum total IgE levels throughout childhood: A quantile analysis in a birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of serum total IgE (t-IgE) were not able to discriminate well-enough atopic from non-atopic subjects, that is, with or without serum-specific IgE antibodies to allergens. OBJECTIVES: To model growth curves of the total IgE levels in children without atopic sensitization (hereafter defined as "normal" t-IgE levels) and to test their usefulness in predicting atopic sensitization. METHODS: The German Multicentre Allergy Study (MAS), a birth cohort with 1314 recruited newborns, began in 1990 and examined the participants until age 20 years. Total and specific IgE (t-IgE, s-IgE) were analyzed with a fluorescent enzyme immunoassay ImmunoCAP (TFS, Sweden) at ages 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 13, and 20 years. Participants were classified as "never atopic" if all their available serum samples had negative response (cutoff: <0.35 kUA /L) for s-IgE to the nine common foodborne and airborne allergenic extracts (milk, egg, soy, wheat, house dust mite, cat, dog, birch, and grass) tested in the MAS birth cohort. By contrast, participants were defined as atopic if they had, for at least at one available serum sample, s-IgE≥0.35 kUA /L to at least one allergenic extract tested. The evolution of t-IgE levels in the "never atopic" children was described by growth curves, estimated by exploiting a quantile regression model. A "reference" percentile, based on the t-IgE value measured at age 5 years, was assigned to each child with no IgE sensitization at that age. Upward deviations from the own "reference" quantile of t-IgE in atopic and "never atopic" children were calculated and a ROC analysis was used to identify the best cutoff point for predicting atopic sensitization. RESULTS: Overall, 1113 of 1314 children were included in this analysis. Of these, 469 were "never atopic" and 644 atopic. Quantile trajectories of t-IgE levels in "never atopic" subjects were stable from 5 years of age, increased to a plateau at age 10-13 years, and decreased slightly afterward. The onset of atopic s-IgE responses was characterized by an upward deviation of serum t-IgE levels from their "reference" trajectory. T-IgE quantiles predicted the onset of atopy with high efficiency (AUC>80%). ROC analysis showed that deviations from the t-IgE level "reference" quantile above 0.32, 0.41, 0.42, 0.30, and 0.58 kU/L (log-units) at 6, 7, 10, 13, and 20 years of age, respectively, predicted an atopic sensitization. CONCLUSION: The growth curves of "normal" serum t-IgE concentrations were estimated in "never atopic" children; for each individual who was non-atopic at 5 years of age a "reference" quantile was identified that represented the individual's "normal" level of t-IgE production. Upward deviations of observed t-IgE levels from the own "reference" quantile, from 6 to 20 years of age, predicted at each year the occurrence of atopic sensitization. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: The trajectory of t-IgE levels can be elaborated since age 5 years in non-atopic children. A child whose t-IgE levels are consistently higher than those predicted by his/her growth curve may have developed atopic sensitization.

Second cancer incidence in primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma treated with methotrexate with leucovorin rescue, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, prednisone, and bleomycin regimen with or without rituximab and mediastinal radiotherapy: Results from a monoinstitutional cohort analysis of long-term survivors.

Our aim is to assess the incidence of second cancer in long-time surviving primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) patients treated with combined radiochemoimmunotherapy (standard methotrexate with leucovorin rescue, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, prednisone, and bleomycin with rituximab and mediastinal radiation therapy at a dose of 30 to 36 Gy). For this purpose, 92 points were evaluated. After a median overall survival of 137 months (range 76-212), we recorded second cancer in 3 of 80 long-surviving patients (3.75%) with cumulative incidence of 3.47% at 15 years and 11% at 17 years, with a 17-year second cancer-free survival of 82%. We observed 2 papillary thyroid cancers with a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 7.97 and an absolute excess risk (AER) of 17. 84 and 1 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with an SIR of 66.53 and an AER of 10.05. No breast cancer occurred. Although we should take into account the limits of the proposed statistical analysis, combined modality treatment was related to a significant SIR and AER for thyroid cancer and acute myeloid leukemia.