ABSTRACT
Abstract Objective: To analyse the mortality trends in children under five years old in Brazil from 2017 to 2020 and the influence of COVID-19 in 2020. Methods: A retrospective study employing secondary data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Deaths according to cause were extracted and disaggregated into early, late, post-neonatal, and 1 to 4-year-old periods. Corrected mortality rates per 1, 000 live births and relative risk ratio for the cause of death were calculated. Results: There were 34, 070 deaths, being 417 (1.2%) from COVID-19 in 2020. COVID-19 mortality was 0.17 per 1000 live births, reaching 0.006 in the early neonatal period, 0.007 in the late neonatal, 0.09 in the postneonatal, and 0.06 in 1 to 4-year-old. Mortality decreased mostly for some diseases that originated in the perinatal period, congenital anomalies, diseases of the respiratory system and external causes, in this order. In 2020, the highest rate was in the early neonatal period, with a fall from 7.2 to 6.5, followed by the postneonatal (3.9 to 3.4) and late neonatal (2.3 to 2.1). Among children aged 1 to 4-year-old, external causes had the highest proportional rate, and diseases of the respiratory system showed the highest decline. Conclusion: The mortality rate declined from 2017 to 2020, and this variation was higher in the early neonatal period. The risk of death from COVID-19 was 14 times higher in the postneonatal period and 10 times higher in children aged 1 to 4 year-old compared to the early neonatal period.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To analyse the mortality trends in children under five years old in Brazil from 2017 to 2020 and the influence of COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS: A retrospective study employing secondary data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Deaths according to cause were extracted and disaggregated into early, late, postneonatal, and 1 to 4-year-old periods. Corrected mortality rates per 1,000 live births and relative risk ratio for the cause of death were calculated. RESULTS: There were 34,070 deaths, being 417 (1.2%) from COVID-19 in 2020. COVID-19 mortality was 0.17 per 1000 live births, reaching 0.006 in the early neonatal period, 0.007 in the late neonatal, 0.09 in the postneonatal, and 0.06 in 1 to 4-year-old. Mortality decreased mostly for some diseases that originated in the perinatal period, congenital anomalies, diseases of the respiratory system and external causes, in this order. In 2020, the highest rate was in the early neonatal period, with a fall from 7.2 to 6.5, followed by the postneonatal (3.9 to 3.4) and late neonatal (2.3 to 2.1). Among children aged 1 to 4-year-old, external causes had the highest proportional rate, and diseases of the respiratory system showed the highest decline. CONCLUSION: The mortality rate declined from 2017 to 2020, and this variation was higher in the early neonatal period. The risk of death from COVID-19 was 14 times higher in the postneonatal period and 10 times higher in children aged 1 to 4 year-old compared to the early neonatal period.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Infant Mortality , Infant, Newborn , Child , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Infant , Child, Preschool , Brazil/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Odds Ratio , Cause of DeathABSTRACT
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence would allow national policy makers to focus disease control resources in areas of highest need. We developed an approach for generating small area estimates of TB incidence, and the fraction of individuals missed by routine case detection, based on available notification and mortality data. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach by creating municipality-level burden estimates for Brazil. We developed a mathematical model describing the relationship between TB incidence and TB case notifications and deaths, allowing for known biases in each of these data sources. We embedded this model in a regression framework with spatial dependencies between local areas, and fitted the model to municipality-level case notifications and death records for Brazil during 2016-2018. We estimated outcomes for 5568 municipalities. Incidence rate ranged from 8.6 to 57.2 per 100,000 persons/year for 90% of municipalities, compared to 44.8 (95% UI: 43.3, 46.8) per 100,000 persons/year nationally. Incidence was concentrated geographically, with 1% of municipalities accounting for 50% of incident TB. The estimated fraction of incident TB cases receiving diagnosis and treatment ranged from 0.73 to 0.95 across municipalities (compared to 0.86 (0.82, 0.89) nationally), and the rate of untreated TB ranged from 0.8 to 72 cases per 100,000 persons/year (compared to 6.3 (4.8, 8.3) per 100,000 persons/year nationally). Granular disease burden estimates can be generated using routine data. These results reveal substantial subnational differences in disease burden and other metrics useful for designing high-impact TB control strategies.
