Forecasting the evolution of fast-changing transportation networks using machine learning.

Transportation networks play a critical role in human mobility and the exchange of goods, but they are also the primary vehicles for the worldwide spread of infections, and account for a significant fraction of CO2 emissions. We investigate the edge removal dynamics of two mature but fast-changing transportation networks: the Brazilian domestic bus transportation network and the U.S. domestic air transportation network. We use machine learning approaches to predict edge removal on a monthly time scale and find that models trained on data for a given month predict edge removals for the same month with high accuracy. For the air transportation network, we also find that models trained for a given month are still accurate for other months even in the presence of external shocks. We take advantage of this approach to forecast the impact of a hypothetical dramatic reduction in the scale of the U.S. air transportation network as a result of policies to reduce CO2 emissions. Our forecasting approach could be helpful in building scenarios for planning future infrastructure.

A solution to the challenge of optimization on ''golf-course''-like fitness landscapes.

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been used to find efficient solutions to numerous fundamental and applied problems. While GAs are a robust and flexible approach to solve complex problems, there are some situations under which they perform poorly. Here, we introduce a genetic algorithm approach that is able to solve complex tasks plagued by so-called ''golf-course''-like fitness landscapes. Our approach, which we denote variable environment genetic algorithms (VEGAs), is able to find highly efficient solutions by inducing environmental changes that require more complex solutions and thus creating an evolutionary drive. Using the density classification task, a paradigmatic computer science problem, as a case study, we show that more complex rules that preserve information about the solution to simpler tasks can adapt to more challenging environments. Interestingly, we find that conservative strategies, which have a bias toward the current state, evolve naturally as a highly efficient solution to the density classification task under noisy conditions.

Duality between time series and networks.

Studying the interaction between a system's components and the temporal evolution of the system are two common ways to uncover and characterize its internal workings. Recently, several maps from a time series to a network have been proposed with the intent of using network metrics to characterize time series. Although these maps demonstrate that different time series result in networks with distinct topological properties, it remains unclear how these topological properties relate to the original time series. Here, we propose a map from a time series to a network with an approximate inverse operation, making it possible to use network statistics to characterize time series and time series statistics to characterize networks. As a proof of concept, we generate an ensemble of time series ranging from periodic to random and confirm that application of the proposed map retains much of the information encoded in the original time series (or networks) after application of the map (or its inverse). Our results suggest that network analysis can be used to distinguish different dynamic regimes in time series and, perhaps more importantly, time series analysis can provide a powerful set of tools that augment the traditional network analysis toolkit to quantify networks in new and useful ways.