Sex-Specific Developmental Scales for Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Developmental surveillance, conducted routinely worldwide, is fundamental for early detection of children at risk for developmental delay. We aimed to explore sex-related difference in attainment rates of developmental milestones and to evaluate the clinical need for separate sex-specific scales. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional, natiowide retrospective study, utilizing data from a national child surveillance program of ∼1000 maternal child health clinics. The main cohort, used for constructing sex-specific developmental scales, included all children born between January 2014 to September 2020, who visited maternal child health clinics from birth to 6 years of age (n = 839 574). Children with abnormal developmental potential were excluded (n = 195 616). A validation cohort included all visits between 2020 and 2021 (n = 309 181). The sex-differences in normative attainment age of 59 developmental milestones from 4 domains were evaluated. The milestones with a significant gap between males and females were identified, and the projected error rates when conducting unified versus sex-specific surveillance were calculated. RESULTS: A new sex-specific developmental scale was constructed. In total, females preceded males in most milestones of all developmental domains, mainly at older ages. Conducting routine developmental surveillance using a unified scale, compared with sex-specific scales, resulted in potential missing of females at risk for developmental delay (19.3% of failed assessments) and over-diagnosis of males not requiring further evaluation (5.9% of failed assessments). CONCLUSIONS: There are sex-related differences in the normative attainment rates of developmental milestones, indicating possible distortion of the currently used unified scales. These findings suggest that using sex-specific scales may improve the accuracy of early childhood developmental surveillance.

Early Prediction of Autistic Spectrum Disorder Using Developmental Surveillance Data.

Importance: With the continuous increase in the prevalence of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD), effective early screening is crucial for initiating timely interventions and improving outcomes. Objective: To develop predictive models for ASD using routinely collected developmental surveillance data and to assess their performance in predicting ASD at different ages and in different clinical scenarios. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used nationwide data of developmental assessments conducted between January 1, 2014, and January 17, 2023, with minimal follow-up of 4 years and outcome collection in March 2023. Data were from a national program of approximately 1000 maternal child health clinics that perform routine developmental surveillance of children from birth to 6 years of age, serving 70% of children in Israel. The study included all children who were assessed at the maternal child health clinics (N = 1 187 397). Children were excluded if they were born at a gestational age of 33 weeks or earlier, had no record of gestational age, or were followed up for less than 4 years without an ASD outcome. The data set was partitioned at random into a development set (80% of the children) and a holdout evaluation set (20% of the children), both with the same prevalence of ASD outcome. Exposures: For each child, demographic and birth-related covariates were extracted, as were per-visit growth measurements, quantified developmental milestone assessments, and referral summary covariates. Only information that was available before the prediction age was used for training and evaluating the models. Main Outcome and Measure: The main outcome was eligibility for a governmental disabled child allowance due to ASD, according to administrative data of the National Insurance Institute of Israel. The performance of the models that predict the outcome was evaluated and compared with previous work on the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT). Results: The study included 1 187 397 children (610 588 [51.4%] male). The performance of the ASD prediction models improved with prediction age, with fair accuracy already at 12 months of age. A model that combined longitudinal measures of developmental milestone assessments with a minimal set of demographic variables, which was applied at 18 to 24 months of age, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83, with a sensitivity of 45.1% at a specificity of 95.0%. A model using single-visit assessments achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 and a sensitivity of 41.2% at a specificity of 95.0%. The best performing prediction models surpassed the pooled performance of M-CHAT (sensitivity, 40%; specificity, 95%) reported in studies with a similar design. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that ASD can be predicted from routine developmental surveillance data at an accuracy surpassing M-CHAT screening. This tool may be seamlessly integrated in the clinical workflow to improve early identification of children who may benefit from timely interventions.

Colchicine to Prevent Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Catheter Ablation: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation may promote atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation. This study aimed to evaluate a short-term anti-inflammatory treatment with colchicine following ablation of AF. METHODS: Patients scheduled for ablation were randomized to receive colchicine 0.6 mg twice daily or placebo for 10 days. The first dose of the study drug was administered within 4 hours before ablation. Atrial arrhythmia recurrence was defined as AF, atrial flutter, or atrial tachycardia >30 s on two 14-day Holters performed immediately and at 3 months following ablation. RESULTS: The modified intention-to-treat population included 199 patients (median age, 61 years; 22% female; 70% first procedure) who underwent radiofrequency (79%) or cryoballoon ablation (21%) of AF. Antiarrhythmic drugs were prescribed at discharge in 149 (75%) patients. Colchicine did not prevent atrial arrhythmia recurrence at 2 weeks (31% versus 32%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.98 [95% CI, 0.59-1.61]; P=0.92) or at 3 months following ablation (14% versus 15%; HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.45-2.02]; P=0.89). Postablation chest pain consistent with pericarditis was reduced with colchicine (4% versus 15%; HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.09-0.77]; P=0.02) and colchicine increased diarrhea (26% versus 7%; HR, 4.74 [95% CI, 1.95-11.53]; P<0.001). During a median follow-up of 1.3 years, colchicine did not reduce a composite of emergency department visit, cardiovascular hospitalization, cardioversion, or repeat ablation (29 versus 25 per 100 patient-years; HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 0.69-1.99]; P=0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Colchicine administered for 10 days following catheter ablation did not reduce atrial arrhythmia recurrence or AF-associated clinical events, but did reduce postablation chest pain and increase diarrhea.

Increased rates of unattained developmental milestones among Israeli children between 2016 and 2020: a national report.

BACKGROUND: The early years of children's lives are critical for their healthy development. Although children's growth and development rates may vary, a significant delay during early childhood could indicate a medical or a developmental disorder. Developmental surveillance is used worldwide by healthcare providers in routine encounters, as well as by educators and parents, to elicit concerns about child development. In this work, we used a national dataset of developmental assessments to describe temporal trends of milestone attainment rates and associations between milestone attainment and various sociodemographic factors. METHODS: The study included 1,002,700 children ages birth until 6 years with 4,441,689 developmental visits between the years 2016 and 2020. We used the Israeli developmental scale to assess the annual rates of failure to attain language, social and motoric milestones by the entire population, as well as by subgroups stratified by sociodemographic factors. In addition, we evaluated the rates of parental concern for child development and of the nurse's report of development inadequate for age. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze the impact of different sociodemographic factors on the odds of failure to attain milestones, while controlling for confounding. RESULTS: Milestone failure rates progressively increased over the examined years in all developmental domains, and most prominently in the language domain. Conversely, the rates of parental concern for developmental delay remained constant. In multivariable analysis, higher risk of milestone attainment failure was observed in children whose mothers were divorced, unemployed, immigrant, had lower education, of Bedouin origin or were over 40 years old when giving birth. CONCLUSIONS: This report describes national trends of child development in the gross motor, fine motor, language, and social domains. A periodic report of these trends should be published to objectively evaluate subgroups in need for intervention, and to assess the effectiveness of intervention programs in attempt to maximize the developmental potential of children in Israel.

A Developmental Surveillance Score for Quantitative Monitoring of Early Childhood Milestone Attainment: Algorithm Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: Developmental surveillance, conducted routinely worldwide, is fundamental for timely identification of children at risk of developmental delays. It is typically executed by assessing age-appropriate milestone attainment and applying clinical judgment during health supervision visits. Unlike developmental screening and evaluation tools, surveillance typically lacks standardized quantitative measures, and consequently, its interpretation is often qualitative and subjective. OBJECTIVE: Herein, we suggested a novel method for aggregating developmental surveillance assessments into a single score that coherently depicts and monitors child development. We described the procedure for calculating the score and demonstrated its ability to effectively capture known population-level associations. Additionally, we showed that the score can be used to describe longitudinal patterns of development that may facilitate tracking and classifying developmental trajectories of children. METHODS: We described the Developmental Surveillance Score (DSS), a simple-to-use tool that quantifies the age-dependent severity level of a failure at attaining developmental milestones based on the recently introduced Israeli developmental surveillance program. We evaluated the DSS using a nationwide cohort of >1 million Israeli children from birth to 36 months of age, assessed between July 1, 2014, and September 1, 2021. We measured the score's ability to capture known associations between developmental delays and characteristics of the mother and child. Additionally, we computed series of the DSS in consecutive visits to describe a child's longitudinal development and applied cluster analysis to identify distinct patterns of these developmental trajectories. RESULTS: The analyzed cohort included 1,130,005 children. The evaluation of the DSS on subpopulations of the cohort, stratified by known risk factors of developmental delays, revealed expected relations between developmental delay and characteristics of the child and mother, including demographics and obstetrics-related variables. On average, the score was worse for preterm children compared to full-term children and for male children compared to female children, and it was correspondingly worse for lower levels of maternal education. The trajectories of scores in 6 consecutive visits were available for 294,000 children. The clustering of these trajectories revealed 3 main types of developmental patterns that are consistent with clinical experience: children who successfully attain milestones, children who initially tend to fail but improve over time, and children whose failures tend to increase over time. CONCLUSIONS: The suggested score is straightforward to compute in its basic form and can be easily implemented as a web-based tool in its more elaborate form. It highlights known and novel relations between developmental delay and characteristics of the mother and child, demonstrating its potential usefulness for surveillance and research. Additionally, it can monitor the developmental trajectory of a child and characterize it. Future work is needed to calibrate the score vis-a-vis other screening tools, validate it worldwide, and integrate it into the clinical workflow of developmental surveillance.

Top-down identification of keystone taxa in the microbiome.

Keystone taxa in ecological communities are native taxa that play an especially important role in the stability of their ecosystem. However, we still lack an effective framework for identifying these taxa from the available high-throughput sequencing without the notoriously difficult step of reconstructing the detailed network of inter-specific interactions. In addition, while most microbial interaction models assume pair-wise relationships, it is yet unclear whether pair-wise interactions dominate the system, or whether higher-order interactions are relevant. Here we propose a top-down identification framework, which detects keystones by their total influence on the rest of the taxa. Our method does not assume a priori knowledge of pairwise interactions or any specific underlying dynamics and is appropriate to both perturbation experiments and metagenomic cross-sectional surveys. When applied to real high-throughput sequencing of the human gastrointestinal microbiome, we detect a set of candidate keystones and find that they are often part of a keystone module - multiple candidate keystone species with correlated occurrence. The keystone analysis of single-time-point cross-sectional data is also later verified by the evaluation of two-time-points longitudinal sampling. Our framework represents a necessary advancement towards the reliable identification of these key players of complex, real-world microbial communities.

Individualized network analysis reveals a link between the gut microbiome, diet intervention and Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM), a serious complication during pregnancy which is defined by abnormal glucose regulation, is commonly treated by diabetic diet and lifestyle changes. While recent findings place the microbiome as a natural mediator between diet interventions and diverse disease states, its role in GDM is still unknown. Here, based on observation data from healthy pregnant control group and GDM patients, we developed a new network approach using patterns of co-abundance of microorganism to construct microbial networks that represent human-specific information about gut microbiota in different groups. By calculating network similarity in different groups, we analyze the gut microbiome from 27 GDM subjects collected before and after two weeks of diet therapy compared with 30 control subjects to identify the health condition of microbial community balance in GDM subjects. Although the microbial communities remain similar after the diet phase, we find that the structure of their inter-species co-abundance network is significantly altered, which is reflected in that the ecological balance of GDM patients was not "healthier" after the diet intervention. In addition, we devised a method for individualized network analysis of the microbiome, thereby a pattern is found that GDM individuals whose microbial networks are with large deviations from the GDM group are usually accompanied by their abnormal glucose regulation. This approach may help the development of individualized diagnosis strategies and microbiome-based therapies in the future.

Progression of Atrial Fibrillation after Cryoablation or Drug Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is a chronic, progressive disorder, and persistent forms of atrial fibrillation are associated with increased risks of thromboembolism and heart failure. Catheter ablation as initial therapy may modify the pathogenic mechanism of atrial fibrillation and alter progression to persistent atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We report the 3-year follow-up of patients with paroxysmal, untreated atrial fibrillation who were enrolled in a trial in which they had been randomly assigned to undergo initial rhythm-control therapy with cryoballoon ablation or to receive antiarrhythmic drug therapy. All the patients had implantable loop recorders placed at the time of trial entry, and evaluation was conducted by means of downloaded daily recordings and in-person visits every 6 months. Data regarding the first episode of persistent atrial fibrillation (lasting ≥7 days or lasting 48 hours to 7 days but requiring cardioversion for termination), recurrent atrial tachyarrhythmia (defined as atrial fibrillation, flutter, or tachycardia lasting ≥30 seconds), the burden of atrial fibrillation (percentage of time in atrial fibrillation), quality-of-life metrics, health care utilization, and safety were collected. RESULTS: A total of 303 patients were enrolled, with 154 patients assigned to undergo initial rhythm-control therapy with cryoballoon ablation and 149 assigned to receive antiarrhythmic drug therapy. Over 36 months of follow-up, 3 patients (1.9%) in the ablation group had an episode of persistent atrial fibrillation, as compared with 11 patients (7.4%) in the antiarrhythmic drug group (hazard ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09 to 0.70). Recurrent atrial tachyarrhythmia occurred in 87 patients in the ablation group (56.5%) and in 115 in the antiarrhythmic drug group (77.2%) (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.67). The median percentage of time in atrial fibrillation was 0.00% (interquartile range, 0.00 to 0.12) in the ablation group and 0.24% (interquartile range, 0.01 to 0.94) in the antiarrhythmic drug group. At 3 years, 8 patients (5.2%) in the ablation group and 25 (16.8%) in the antiarrhythmic drug group had been hospitalized (relative risk, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.66). Serious adverse events occurred in 7 patients (4.5%) in the ablation group and in 15 (10.1%) in the antiarrhythmic drug group. CONCLUSIONS: Initial treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with catheter cryoballoon ablation was associated with a lower incidence of persistent atrial fibrillation or recurrent atrial tachyarrhythmia over 3 years of follow-up than initial use of antiarrhythmic drugs. (Funded by the Cardiac Arrhythmia Network of Canada and others; EARLY-AF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02825979.).

Perioperative Safety and Early Patient and Device Outcomes Among Subcutaneous Versus Transvenous Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Implantations : A Randomized, Multicenter Trial.

BACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) improve survival in patients at risk for cardiac arrest, but are associated with intravascular lead-related complications. The subcutaneous ICD (S-ICD), with no intravascular components, was developed to minimize lead-related complications. OBJECTIVE: To assess key ICD performance measures related to delivery of ICD therapy, including inappropriate ICD shocks (delivered in absence of life-threatening arrhythmia) and failed ICD shocks (which did not terminate ventricular arrhythmia). DESIGN: Randomized, multicenter trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02881255). SETTING: The ATLAS trial. PATIENTS: 544 eligible patients (141 female) with a primary or secondary prevention indication for an ICD who were younger than age 60 years, had a cardiogenetic phenotype, or had prespecified risk factors for lead complications were electrocardiographically screened and 503 randomly assigned to S-ICD (251 patients) or transvenous ICD (TV-ICD) (252 patients). Mean follow-up was 2.5 years (SD, 1.1). Mean age was 49.0 years (SD, 11.5). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was perioperative major lead-related complications. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant reduction in perioperative, lead-related complications, which occurred in 1 patient (0.4%) with an S-ICD and in 12 patients (4.8%) with TV-ICD (-4.4%; 95% CI, -6.9 to -1.9; P = 0.001). There was a trend for more inappropriate shocks with the S-ICD (hazard ratio [HR], 2.37; 95% CI, 0.98 to 5.77), but no increase in failed appropriate ICD shocks (HR, 0.61 (0.15 to 2.57). Patients in the S-ICD group had more ICD site pain, measured on a 10-point numeric rating scale, on the day of implant (4.2 ± 2.8 vs. 2.9 ± 2.2; P < 0.001) and 1 month later (1.3 ± 1.8 vs. 0.9 ± 1.5; P = 0.035). LIMITATION: At present, the ATLAS trial is underpowered to detect differences in clinical shock outcomes; however, extended follow-up is ongoing. CONCLUSION: The S-ICD reduces perioperative, lead-related complications without significantly compromising the effectiveness of ICD shocks, but with more early postoperative pain and a trend for more inappropriate shocks. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Boston Scientific.

Assessing the Attainment Rates of Updated CDC Milestones Using a New Israeli Developmental Scale.

OBJECTIVES: Developmental milestones norms are widely used worldwide and are fundamental for early childhood developmental surveillance. We compared a new Israeli evidence-based national developmental scale with the recently updated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) checklists. METHODS: We used a cohort of nearly 4.5 million developmental assessments of 758 300 full-term born children aged 0 to 6 years (ALL-FT cohort), who visited maternal child health clinics in Israel for routine developmental surveillance. Among the assessed milestones of 4 developmental domains (gross motor, fine motor, language, and personal-social) we identified milestones that had equivalents on the CDC checklists and assessed the attainment rates of the Israeli children at the ages recommended by the CDC, at which ≥75% of the children would be expected to achieve the milestone. The analysis was repeated on a subgroup of 658 958 children who were considered healthy, typically developing by their birth and growth characteristics (NORMAL-FT cohort). RESULTS: There were 29 milestones, across all developmental domains and assessment ages, whose definitions by both tools were compatible, and could be compared. The attainment rate at the CDC-recommended age was >90% for 22 (76%) and 23 (79%) milestones, and the median attainment rates were 95.2% and 96.3% in the ALL-FT and NORMAL-FT cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For almost all comparable milestones of all domains and all ages, children of the Israeli cohorts achieved the milestones earlier than expected by the CDC-defined threshold age. Evidence-based analysis of milestone norms among different populations may enable adjustments of developmental scales and facilitate more personalized developmental surveillance.

Estimating the effect of cesarean delivery on long-term childhood health across two countries.

Assessing the impact of cesarean delivery (CD) on long-term childhood outcomes is challenging as conducting a randomized controlled trial is rarely feasible and inferring it from observational data may be confounded. Utilizing data from electronic health records of 737,904 births, we defined and emulated a target trial to estimate the effect of CD on predefined long-term pediatric outcomes. Causal effects were estimated using pooled logistic regression and standardized survival curves, leveraging data breadth to account for potential confounders. Diverse sensitivity analyses were performed including replication of results in an external validation set from the UK including 625,044 births. Children born in CD had an increased risk to develop asthma (10-year risk differences (95% CI) 0.64% (0.31, 0.98)), an average treatment effect of 0.10 (0.07-0.12) on body mass index (BMI) z-scores at age 5 years old and 0.92 (0.68-1.14) on the number of respiratory infection events until 5 years of age. A positive 10-year risk difference was also observed for atopy (10-year risk differences (95% CI) 0.74% (-0.06, 1.52)) and allergy 0.47% (-0.32, 1.28)). Increased risk for these outcomes was also observed in the UK cohort. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence on the long-term effects of CD on pediatric morbidity, may assist in the decision to perform CD when not medically indicated and paves the way to future research on the mechanisms underlying these effects and intervention strategies targeting them.

Pan-cancer analyses reveal cancer-type-specific fungal ecologies and bacteriome interactions.

Cancer-microbe associations have been explored for centuries, but cancer-associated fungi have rarely been examined. Here, we comprehensively characterize the cancer mycobiome within 17,401 patient tissue, blood, and plasma samples across 35 cancer types in four independent cohorts. We report fungal DNA and cells at low abundances across many major human cancers, with differences in community compositions that differ among cancer types, even when accounting for technical background. Fungal histological staining of tissue microarrays supported intratumoral presence and frequent spatial association with cancer cells and macrophages. Comparing intratumoral fungal communities with matched bacteriomes and immunomes revealed co-occurring bi-domain ecologies, often with permissive, rather than competitive, microenvironments and distinct immune responses. Clinically focused assessments suggested prognostic and diagnostic capacities of the tissue and plasma mycobiomes, even in stage I cancers, and synergistic predictive performance with bacteriomes.

Pre-treatment with antiarrhythmic drugs for elective electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

AIMS: Our objective was to compare the efficacy of pre-treatment with different classes of anti-arrhythmic drugs (AADs) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing electrical cardioversion. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing different AADs in patients with AF undergoing electrical cardioversion. We grouped AADs into five network nodes: no treatment or rate control, Class Ia, Class Ic, Class III, and amiodarone. Outcomes were (i) acute restoration and (ii) maintenance of sinus rhythm. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception until June 2020. We used Python 3.8.3 and R 3.6.2 for data analysis. We evaluated the overall certainty of evidence with the GRADE framework. We included 28 RCTs. Compared with no treatment or rate control, Class III AADs [odds ratio (OR): 2.41; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.37 to 4.62, high certainty] and amiodarone (OR: 2.58; 95% CrI: 1.54 to 4.37, high certainty) improved restoration of sinus rhythm. Amiodarone improved long-term maintenance of sinus rhythm when compared with no treatment or rate control (OR: 5.37; 95% CrI: 4.00-7.39, high certainty), Class Ic (OR: 1.89; 95% CrI: 1.05-3.45, moderate certainty) and Class III AADs (OR: 2.19; 95% CrI: 1.39-3.26, high certainty). CONCLUSION: Before electrical cardioversion of AF, treatment with Class III AADs or amiodarone improves the acute restoration of sinus rhythm. Amiodarone is most likely to improve the maintenance of sinus rhythm after electrical cardioversion, but Class Ic and Class III AADs are also effective.

Randomized trial of conventional versus radiofrequency needle transseptal puncture for cryoballoon ablation: the CRYO-LATS trial.

BACKGROUND: Transseptal puncture to achieve left atrial access is necessary for many cardiac procedures, including atrial fibrillation ablation. More recently, there has been an increasing need for left atrial access using large caliber sheaths, which increases risk of perforation associated with the initial advancement into the left atrium. We compared the effectiveness of a radiofrequency needle-based transseptal system versus conventional needle for transseptal access. METHODS: This prospective controlled trial randomized 161 patients with symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation undergoing cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation to transseptal access with a commercially available transseptal system (radiofrequency needle plus stiff pigtail wire; RF + Pigtail group) versus conventional transseptal access (standard group). The primary outcome was time required for left atrial access. Secondary outcomes included failure of the assigned transseptal system, radiation exposure, and complications. RESULTS: The median transseptal puncture time was significantly shorter using the radiofrequency needle plus stiff pigtail wire transseptal system compared with conventional transseptal (840 ± 323 vs. 956 ± 407 s, P = 0.0489). Compared to conventional transseptal puncture, fewer transseptal attempts were required (1.0 ± 0.5 RF applications vs. 1.3 ± 0.8 mechanical punctures, P = 0.0123) and the fluoroscopy time was significantly shorter (72.0 [IQR 48.0, 129.0] vs. 93.0 [IQR 60.0, 171.0] s, P = 0.0490) with the radiofrequency needle plus stiff pigtail wire transseptal system. Failure to achieve transseptal LA access with the assigned system was rarely observed (1.3% vs. 5.7%, P = 0.2192). There were no procedural complications observed with either system. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a radiofrequency needle plus stiff pigtail wire resulted in shorter time to left atrial access and reduced fluoroscopy time compared to left atrial access using conventional transseptal equipment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT03199703.

Global coordination level in single-cell transcriptomic data.

Genes are linked by underlying regulatory mechanisms and by jointly implementing biological functions, working in coordination to apply different tasks in the cells. Assessing the coordination level between genes from single-cell transcriptomic data, without a priori knowledge of the map of gene regulatory interactions, is a challenge. A 'top-down' approach has recently been developed to analyze single-cell transcriptomic data by evaluating the global coordination level between genes (called GCL). Here, we systematically analyze the performance of the GCL in typical scenarios of single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. We show that an individual anomalous cell can have a disproportionate effect on the GCL calculated over a cohort of cells. In addition, we demonstrate how the GCL is affected by the presence of clusters, which are very common in scRNA-seq data. Finally, we analyze the effect of the sampling size of the Jackknife procedure on the GCL statistics. The manuscript is accompanied by a description of a custom-built Python package for calculating the GCL. These results provide practical guidelines for properly pre-processing and applying the GCL measure in transcriptional data.

Complexity-stability trade-off in empirical microbial ecosystems.

May's stability theory, which holds that large ecosystems can be stable up to a critical level of complexity, a product of the number of resident species and the intensity of their interactions, has been a central paradigm in theoretical ecology. So far, however, empirically demonstrating this theory in real ecological systems has been a long-standing challenge with inconsistent results. Especially, it is unknown whether this theory is pertinent in the rich and complex communities of natural microbiomes, mainly due to the challenge of reliably reconstructing such large ecological interaction networks. Here we introduce a computational framework for estimating an ecosystem's complexity without relying on a priori knowledge of its underlying interaction network. By applying this method to human-associated microbial communities from different body sites and sponge-associated microbial communities from different geographical locations, we found that in both cases the communities display a pronounced trade-off between the number of species and their effective connectance. These results suggest that natural microbiomes are shaped by stability constraints, which limit their complexity.

Standardization of a Developmental Milestone Scale Using Data From Children in Israel.

Importance: Routine developmental screening tests for children are used worldwide for early detection of developmental delays. However, assessment of developmental milestone norms lacks strong normative data, and there are inconsistencies among different screening tools. Objective: To establish milestone norms and build an updated developmental scale. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2014 and 2020. Developmental assessments were conducted by trained public health nurses, documented in national maternal child health clinics, known as Tipat Halav, which serve all children in Israel. Participants included all children born between January 2014 and September 2020, who were followed at the maternal child health clinics from birth to age 6 years. Exclusion criteria were preterm birth, missing gestational age, low birth weight (<2.5 kg), abnormal weight measurement (<3% according to standardized child growth charts), abnormal head circumference measurement (<3% or >97% according to standardized child growth charts), and visits without developmental data or without the child's age. Data analysis was performed from September 2020 to June 2021. Exposures: In total, 59 milestones in 4 developmental domains were evaluated, and the achievement rate per child's age was calculated for each milestone. Main Outcomes and Measures: A contemporary developmental scale, the Tipat Halav Israel Screening (THIS) Developmental Scale, was built, presenting the 75%, 90%, and 95% achievement rates for each milestone. The THIS scale was compared with other commonly used screening tests, including the Denver Developmental Screening Test II (Denver II), the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Developmental Assessment. Results: A total of 839 574 children were followed in the maternal child health clinics between January 2014 and September 2020 in Israel, and 195 616 children were excluded. A total of 3 774 517 developmental assessments were performed for the remaining 643 958 children aged 0 to 6 years (319 562 female children [49.6%]), resulting in the establishment of new developmental norms. In terms of the comparable milestones, THIS milestones had a match of 18 of 27 (67%) with the Denver II, 7 of 7 (100%) with AIMS, and 10 of 19 (53%) with the CDC Developmental Assessment. The remaining unmatched milestones were achieved earlier in the THIS scale compared with other screening tools. Conclusions and Relevance: The THIS developmental scale is based on the largest population evaluated to date for developmental performance, representing the heterogeneous, multicultural population comprising this cohort. It is recommended for further evaluation worldwide.

Estimation of postpartum depression risk from electronic health records using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum depression is a widespread disorder, adversely affecting the well-being of mothers and their newborns. We aim to utilize machine learning for predicting risk of postpartum depression (PPD) using primary care electronic health records (EHR) data, and to evaluate the potential value of EHR-based prediction in improving the accuracy of PPD screening and in early identification of women at risk. METHODS: We analyzed EHR data of 266,544 women from the UK who gave first live birth between 2000 and 2017. We extracted a multitude of socio-demographic and medical variables and constructed a machine learning model that predicts the risk of PPD during the year following childbirth. We evaluated the model's performance using multiple validation methodologies and measured its accuracy as a stand-alone tool and as an adjunct to the standard questionnaire-based screening by Edinburgh postnatal depression scale (EPDS). RESULTS: The prevalence of PPD in the analyzed cohort was 13.4%. Combing EHR-based prediction with EPDS score increased the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) from 0.805 to 0.844 and the sensitivity from 0.72 to 0.76, at specificity of 0.80. The AUC of the EHR-based prediction model alone varied from 0.72 to 0.74 and decreased by only 0.01-0.02 when applied as early as before the beginning of pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: PPD risk prediction using EHR data may provide a complementary quantitative and objective tool for PPD screening, allowing earlier (pre-pregnancy) and more accurate identification of women at risk, timely interventions and potentially improved outcomes for the mother and child.

Prevalence of Left Atrial Thrombus in Anticoagulated Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of left atrial (LA) thrombus in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter (AFL) on guideline-directed anticoagulation is not well known, yet this may inform transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE) use before cardioversion or catheter ablation. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to quantify LA thrombus prevalence among patients with AF/AFL on guideline-directed anticoagulation and to identify high-risk subgroups. METHODS: EMBASE, MEDLINE, and CENTRAL were systematically searched from inception to July 2020 for studies reporting on LA thrombus prevalence among patients with AF/AFL undergoing TEE following at least 3 weeks of continuous therapeutic oral anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Meta-analysis was performed using random effects models. RESULTS: Thirty-five studies describing 14,653 patients were identified. The mean-weighted LA thrombus prevalence was 2.73% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.95% to 3.80%). LA thrombus prevalence was similar for VKA- and DOAC-treated patients (2.80%; 95% CI: 1.86% to 4.21% vs. 3.12%; 95% CI: 1.92% to 5.03%; p = 0.674). Patients with nonparoxysmal AF/AFL had a 4-fold higher LA thrombus prevalence compared with paroxysmal patients (4.81%; 95% CI: 3.35% to 6.86% vs. 1.03%; 95% CI: 0.52% to 2.03%; p < 0.001). LA thrombus prevalence was higher among patients undergoing cardioversion versus ablation (5.55%; 95% CI: 3.15% to 9.58% vs. 1.65%; 95% CI: 1.07% to 2.53%; p < 0.001). Patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥3 had a higher LA thrombus prevalence compared with patients with scores ≤2 (6.31%; 95% CI: 3.72% to 10.49% vs. 1.06%; 95% CI: 0.45% to 2.49%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LA thrombus prevalence is high in subgroups of anticoagulated patients with AF/AFL, who may benefit from routine pre-procedural TEE use before cardioversion or catheter ablation.

Canadian national electrophysiology ablation registry report 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Interventional cardiac electrophysiology (EP) is a rapidly evolving field in Canada; a nationwide registry was established in 2011 to conduct a periodic review of resource allocation. METHODS: The registry collects annual data on EP lab infrastructure, imaging, tools, human resources, procedural volumes, success rates, and wait times. Leading physicians from each EP lab were contacted electronically; participation was voluntary. RESULTS: All Canadian EP centres were identified (n = 30); 50 and 45 % of active centres participated in the last 2 instalments of the registry. A mean of 508 ± 270 standard and complex catheter ablation procedures were reported annually for 2015-2016 by all responding centres. The most frequently performed ablation targets atrial fibrillation (PVI) arrhythmia accounting for 36 % of all procedures (mean = 164 ± 85). The number of full time physicians ranges between 1 and 7 per centre, (mean = 4). The mean wait time to see an electrophysiologist for an initial non-urgent consult is 23 weeks. The wait time between an EP consult and ablation date is 17.8 weeks for simple ablation, and 30.1 weeks for AF ablation. On average centres have 2 (range: 1-4) rooms equipped for ablations; each centre uses the EP lab an average of 7 shifts per week. While diagnostic studies and radiofrequency ablations are performed in all centres, point-by-point cryoablation is available in 85 % centres; 38 % of the respondents use circular ablation techniques. CONCLUSIONS: This initiative provides contemporary data on invasive electrophysiology lab practices. The EP registry provides activity benchmarks on national trends and practices.