Differences in the organisation of early pregnancy units and the effect of senior clinician presence, volume of patients and weekend opening on emergency hospital admissions: Findings from the VESPA Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the participation of consultant gynaecologists in delivering early pregnancy care results in a lower rate of acute hospital admissions. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study and emergency hospital care audit; data were collected as part of the national prospective mixed-methods VESPA study on the "Variations in the organization of EPAUs in the UK and their effects on clinical, Service and PAtient-centred outcomes". SETTING: 44 Early Pregnancy Assessment Units (EPAUs) across the UK randomly selected in balanced numbers from eight pre-defined mutually exclusive strata. PARTICIPANTS: 6606 pregnant women (≥16 years old) with suspected first trimester pregnancy complications attending the participating EPAUs or Emergency Departments (ED) from December 2016 to July 2017. EXPOSURES: Planned and actual senior clinician presence, unit size, and weekend opening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Unplanned admissions to hospital following any visit for investigations or treatment for first trimester complications as a proportion of women attending EPAUs. RESULTS: 205/6397 (3.2%; 95% CI 2.8-3.7) women were admitted following their EPAU attendance. The admission rate among 44 units ranged from 0% to 13.7% (median 2.8). Neither planned senior clinician presence (p = 0.874) nor unit volume (p = 0.247) were associated with lower admission rates from EPAU, whilst EPAU opening over the weekend resulted in lower admission rates (p = 0.027). 1445/5464 (26.4%; 95%CI 25.3 to 27.6) women were admitted from ED. There was little evidence of an association with planned senior clinician time (p = 0.280) or unit volume (p = 0.647). Keeping an EPAU open over the weekend for an additional hour was associated with 2.4% (95% CI 0.1% to 4.7%) lower odds of an emergency admission from ED. CONCLUSIONS: Involvement of senior clinicians in delivering early pregnancy care has no significant impact on emergency hospital admissions for early pregnancy complications. Weekend opening, however, may be an effective way of reducing emergency admissions from ED.

Association of Group A Streptococcus Exposure and Exacerbations of Chronic Tic Disorders: A Multinational Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine prospectively the association between group A Streptococcus (GAS) pharyngeal exposures and exacerbations of tics in a large multicenter population of youth with chronic tic disorders (CTD) across Europe. METHODS: We followed up 715 children with CTD (age 10.7 ± 2.8 years, 76.8% boys), recruited by 16 specialist clinics from 9 countries, and followed up for 16 months on average. Tic, obsessive-compulsive symptom (OCS), and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) severity was assessed during 4-monthly study visits and telephone interviews. GAS exposures were analyzed using 4 possible combinations of measures based on pharyngeal swab and serologic testing. The associations between GAS exposures and tic exacerbations or changes of tic, OC, and ADHD symptom severity were measured, respectively, using multivariate logistic regression plus multiple failure time analyses and mixed effects linear regression. RESULTS: A total of 405 exacerbations occurred in 308 of 715 (43%) participants. The proportion of exacerbations temporally associated with GAS exposure ranged from 5.5% to 12.9%, depending on GAS exposure definition. We did not detect any significant association of any of the 4 GAS exposure definitions with tic exacerbations (odds ratios ranging between 1.006 and 1.235, all p values >0.3). GAS exposures were associated with longitudinal changes of hyperactivity-impulsivity symptom severity ranging from 17% to 21%, depending on GAS exposure definition. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not support GAS exposures as contributing factors for tic exacerbations in children with CTD. Specific workup or active management of GAS infections is unlikely to help modify the course of tics in CTD and is therefore not recommended.

Mortality Among Referral Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy vs the General European Population.

Importance: It is unclear whether hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) conveys excess mortality when compared with the general population. Objective: To compare the survival of patients with HCM with that of the general European population. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of 4893 consecutive adult patients with HCM presenting at 7 European referral centers between 1980 and 2013. The data were analyzed between April 2018 and August 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survival was compared using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) calculated with data from Eurostat, stratified by study period, country, sex, and age, and using a composite end point in the HCM cohort of all-cause mortality, aborted sudden cardiac death, and heart transplant. Results: Of 4893 patients with HCM, 3126 (63.9%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at presentation was 49.2 (16.4) years. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years (interquartile range, 3.1-9.8 years), 721 patients (14.7%) reached the composite end point. Compared with the general population, patients with HCM had excess mortality throughout the age spectrum (SMR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.48-2.63). Excess mortality was highest among patients presenting prior to the year 2000 but persisted in the cohort presenting between 2006 and 2013 (SMR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.55-2.18). Women had higher excess mortality than men (SMR, 2.66; 95% CI, 2.38-2.97; vs SMR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.52-1.85; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients referred to European specialty centers, HCM was associated with significant excess mortality through the life course. Although there have been improvements in survival with time, potentially reflecting improved treatments for HCM, these findings highlight the need for more research into the causes of excess mortality among patients with HCM and for better risk stratification.

The cardiac output optimisation following liver transplant (COLT) trial: a feasibility randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Perioperative goal directed fluid therapy (GDFT) has been shown to reduce postoperative complications following major surgery; this intervention has not been formally evaluated in the setting of liver transplantation. METHODS: We conducted a prospective trial of GDFT following liver transplantation randomising patients with liver cirrhosis to either 12 h of GDFT using non-invasive cardiac output monitoring or standard care (SC). The primary outcome was feasibility. Secondary outcomes included survival, postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo), quality of life (by EQ-5D-5L) and resource use. Trial specific follow up occurred at 90 and 180 days after surgery. RESULTS: The study was feasible. Of 224 eligible patients, 122 were approached, 114 consented to participate and 60 were enrolled into the trial. The mean (SD) volume of IV crystalloid administered to the GDFT group during the 12-h study period was 3968 (2073) ml for the GDFT group and 2510 (1026) ml for the SC group. As regards secondary outcomes there was no difference in survival or overall complication rates. There was no significant difference in quality of life scores and resource use between the groups. CONCLUSION: A randomised study of GDFT following liver transplantation is feasible. A post-trial stakeholder meeting supported proceeding with a full multi-centre trial.

Predicting diagnosis of Parkinson's disease: A risk algorithm based on primary care presentations.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) is typically preceded by nonspecific presentations in primary care. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for diagnosis of PD based on presentations in primary care. SETTING: The settings were general practices providing data for The Health Improvement Network UK primary care database. METHODS: Data from 8,166 patients aged older than age 50 years with incident diagnosis of PD and 46,755 controls were analyzed. Likelihood ratios, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for individual symptoms and combinations of presentations were calculated. An algorithm for risk of diagnosis of PD within 5 years was calculated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Split sample analysis was used for model validation with a 70% development sample and a 30% validation sample. RESULTS: Presentations independently and significantly associated with later diagnosis of PD in multivariate analysis were tremor, constipation, depression or anxiety, fatigue, dizziness, urinary dysfunction, balance problems, memory problems and cognitive decline, hypotension, rigidity, and hypersalivation. The discrimination and calibration of the risk algorithm were good with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.81). At a threshold of 5%, 37% of those classified as high risk would be diagnosed with PD within 5 years and 99% of those who were not classified as high risk would not be diagnosed with PD. CONCLUSION: This risk algorithm applied to routine primary care presentations can identify individuals at increased risk of diagnosis of PD within 5 years to allow for monitoring and earlier diagnosis of PD. © 2019 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Effectiveness of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guideline on sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In 2014, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommended the use of a novel risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) to guide use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We sought to determine the performance of HCM Risk-SCD by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of articles reporting on the prevalence of SCD within 5 years of evaluation in low, intermediate and high-risk patients as defined by the 2014 guidelines (predicted risk <4%, 4%-<6% and ≥6%, respectively). METHODS: The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42017064203). MEDLINE and manual searches for papers published from October 2014 to December 2017 were performed. Longitudinal, observational cohorts of unselected adult patients, without history of cardiac arrest were considered. The original HCM Risk-SCD development study was included a priori. Data were pooled using a random effects model. RESULTS: Six (0.9%) out of 653 independent publications identified by the initial search were included. The calculated 5-year risk of SCD was reported in 7291 individuals (70% low, 15% intermediate; 15% high risk) with 184 (2.5%) SCD endpoints within 5 years of baseline evaluation. Most SCD endpoints (68%) occurred in patients with an estimated 5-year risk of ≥4% who formed 30% of the total study cohort. Using the random effects method, the pooled prevalence of SCD endpoints was 1.01% (95% CI 0.52 to 1.61) in low-risk patients, 2.43% (95% CI 1.23 to 3.92) in intermediate and 8.4% (95% CI 6.68 to 10.25) in high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis demonstrates that HCM Risk-SCD provides accurate risk estimations that can be used to guide ICD therapy in accordance with the 2014 ESC guidelines. REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42017064203;Pre-results.

Clinical variables and biomarkers in prediction of cognitive impairment in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease is associated with an increased incidence of cognitive impairment and dementia. Predicting who is at risk of cognitive decline early in the disease course has implications for clinical prognosis and for stratification of participants in clinical trials. We assessed the use of clinical information and biomarkers as predictive factors for cognitive decline in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease. METHODS: The Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) study is a cohort study in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease. We evaluated cognitive performance (Montreal Cognitive Assessment [MoCA] scores), demographic and clinical data, APOE status, and biomarkers (CSF and dopamine transporter [DAT] imaging results). Using change in MoCA scores over 2 years, MoCA scores at 2 years' follow-up, and a diagnosis of cognitive impairment (combined mild cognitive impairment or dementia) at 2 years as outcome measures, we assessed the predictive values of baseline clinical variables and separate or combined additions of APOE status, DAT imaging, and CSF biomarkers. We did univariate and multivariate linear analyses with MoCA change scores between baseline and 2 years, and with MoCA scores at 2 years as dependent variables, using backwards linear regression analysis. Additionally, we constructed a prediction model for diagnosis of cognitive impairment using logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS: 390 patients with Parkinson's disease recruited between July 1, 2010, and May 31, 2013, and for whom data on MoCA scores at baseline and 2 years were available. In multivariate analyses, baseline age, University of Pennsylvania Smell Inventory Test (UPSIT) scores, CSF amyloid - (Aß42) to t-tau ratio, and APOE status were associated with change in MoCA scores over time. Baseline age, MoCA and UPSIT scores, and CSF Aß42 to t-tau ratio were associated with MoCA score at 2 years (using a backwards p-removal threshold of 0·1). Accuracy of prediction of cognitive impairment using age alone (area under the curve 0·68, 95% CI 0·60-0·76) significantly improved by addition of clinical scores (UPSIT, Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behaviour Disorder Screening Questionnaire [RBDSQ], Geriatric Depression Scale, and Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale motor scores; 0·76, 0·68-0·83), CSF variables (0·74, 0·68-0·81), or DAT imaging results (0·76, 0·68-0·83). In combination, the five variables showing the most significant associations with cognitive impairment (age, UPSIT, RBDSQ, CSF Aß42, and caudate uptake on DAT imaging) allowed prediction of cognitive impairment at 2 years (0·80, 0·74-0·87; p=0·0003 compared to age alone). INTERPRETATION: In newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease, the occurrence of cognitive impairment at 2 year follow-up can be predicted with good accuracy using a model combining information on age, non-motor assessments, DAT imaging, and CSF biomarkers. FUNDING: None.