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1.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 11739, 2024 05 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38778134

ABSTRACT

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.


Subject(s)
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , HIV Infections , Models, Theoretical , Tuberculosis , Humans , Tuberculosis/prevention & control , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/mortality , Tuberculosis/economics , Brazil/epidemiology , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Incidence , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/prevention & control , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/economics , Poverty
2.
PLoS One ; 19(2): e0297247, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38306355

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, despite the increasing poverty and inequalities, policies should be designed to deal with population heterogeneity and environmental changes. Bottom-up designs, such as the Agent-Based Model (ABM), can model these features, dealing with such complexity. HIV/AIDS has a complex dynamic of structural factors, risk behaviors, biomedical characteristics and interventions. All embedded in unequal, stigmatized and heterogeneous social structure. To understand how ABMs can model this complexity, we performed a scoping review of HIV applications, highlighting their potentialities. METHODS: We searched on PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus repositories following the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. Our inclusion criteria were HIV/AIDS studies with an ABM application. We identified the main articles using a local co-citation analysis and categorized the overall literature aims, (sub)populations, regions, and if the papers declared the use of ODD protocol and limitations. RESULTS: We found 154 articles. We identified eleven main papers, and discussed them using the overall category results. Most studies model Transmission Dynamics (37/154), about Men who have sex with Men (MSM) (41/154), or individuals living in the US or South Africa (84/154). Recent studies applied ABM to model PrEP interventions (17/154) and Racial Disparities (12/154). Only six papers declared the use of ODD Protocol (6/154), and 34/154 didn't mention the study limitations. CONCLUSIONS: While ABM is among the most sophisticated techniques available to model HIV/AIDS complexity. Their applications are still restricted to some realities. However, researchers are challenged to think about social structure due model characteristics, the inclusion of these features is still restricted to case-specific. Data and computational power availability can enhance this feature providing insightful results.


Subject(s)
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , HIV Infections , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Male , Humans , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Homosexuality, Male , Policy
3.
Lancet HIV ; 10(6): e394-403, 2023 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37270225

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Poverty and social inequality are risk factors for poor health outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS. In addition to eligibility, cash transfer programmes can be divided into two categories: those with specific requirements (conditional cash transfers [CCTs]) and those without specific requirements (unconditional cash transfers). Common CCT requirements include health care (eg, undergoing an HIV test) and education (eg, children attending school). Trials assessing the effect of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS outcomes have yielded divergent findings. This review aimed to summarise evidence to evaluate the effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS prevention and care outcomes. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, LILACS, WHO IRIS, PAHO-IRIS, BDENF, Secretaria Estadual de Saúde SP, Localizador de Informação em Saúde, Coleciona SUS, BINACIS, IBECS, CUMED, SciELO, and Web of Science up to Nov 28, 2022. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV incidence, HIV testing, retention in HIV care, and antiretroviral therapy adherence, and conducted risk of bias and quality of evidence assessments using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations approach. A random-effects meta-analysis model was used to combine studies and calculate risk ratios (RRs). Subgroup analyses were performed using conditionality types (ie, school attendance or health care). The protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021274452. FINDINGS: 16 RCTs, which included 5241 individuals, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 13 studies included conditionalities for receiving cash transfer programmes. The results showed that receiving a cash transfer was associated with lowered HIV incidence among individuals who had to meet health-care conditionalities (RR 0·74, 95% CI 0·56-0·98) and with increased retention in HIV care for pregnant women (1·14, 95% CI 1·03-1·27). No significant effect was observed for HIV testing (RR 0·45, 95% CI 0·18-1·12) or antiretroviral therapy adherence (1·13, 0·73-1·75). Lower risk of bias was observed for HIV incidence and having an HIV test. The strength of available evidence can be classified as moderate. INTERPRETATION: Cash transfer programmes have a positive effect on mitigating HIV incidence for individuals who have to meet health-care conditionalities and on increasing retention in HIV care for pregnant women. These results show the potential of cash transfer programmes for HIV prevention and care, especially among people in extreme poverty, and highlight that cash transfer programmes must be considered when developing policies for HIV/AIDS control, as indicated by the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target of the HIV care continuum. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, USA.


Subject(s)
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , HIV Infections , United States , Pregnancy , Child , Female , Humans , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Socioeconomic Factors , Risk Factors , Poverty
4.
PLoS One ; 17(3): e0265253, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35316304

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite the great progress made over the last decades, stronger structural interventions are needed to end the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). Brazil is one of the largest and data-richest LMIC, with rapidly changing socioeconomic characteristics and an important HIV/AIDS burden. Over the last two decades Brazil has also implemented the world's largest Conditional Cash Transfer programs, the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP), and one of the most consolidated Primary Health Care (PHC) interventions, the Family Health Strategy (FHS). OBJECTIVE: We will evaluate the effects of socioeconomic determinants, BFP exposure and FHS coverage on HIV/AIDS incidence, treatment adherence, hospitalizations, case fatality, and mortality using unprecedently large aggregate and individual-level longitudinal data. Moreover, we will integrate the retrospective datasets and estimated parameters with comprehensive forecasting models to project HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality scenarios up to 2030 according to future socioeconomic conditions and alternative policy implementations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will combine individual-level data from all national HIV/AIDS registries with large-scale databases, including the "100 Million Brazilian Cohort", over a 19-year period (2000-2018). Several approaches will be used for the retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations, such as Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), Random Administrative Delays (RAD) and Propensity Score Matching (PSM), combined with multivariable Poisson regressions for cohort analyses. Moreover, we will explore in depth lagged and long-term effects of changes in living conditions and in exposures to BFP and FHS. We will also investigate the effects of the interventions in a wide range of subpopulations. Finally, we will integrate such retrospective analyses with microsimulation, compartmental and agent-based models to forecast future HIV/AIDS scenarios. CONCLUSION: The unprecedented datasets, analyzed through state-of-the-art quasi-experimental methods and innovative mathematical models will provide essential evidences to the understanding and control of HIV/AIDS epidemic in LMICs such as Brazil.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Social Determinants of Health , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/therapy , Humans , Primary Health Care , Retrospective Studies
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