Life Course Models of Child Maltreatment: Effects on General Psychopathology Outcomes in a Longitudinal Sample.

The study compared life course models (LCM; accumulation, recency, and sensitive period) of child maltreatment and general psychopathology in a large, national longitudinal data set of 1354 youth ages birth-16 years (657 boys, 53.2% Black, 59.7% <$40K caregiver income). Previous research has supported the accumulation and recency models, albeit with shorter or fewer time periods of outcome measurement. We extend this work by modeling the impact of combined abuse and neglect allegations on a general psychopathology factor (dysregulation profile). Cross-sectional structural equation models were constructed using LCMs and tested across two-year periods from 4-16 years old and compared using Akaike Information Criterion weights. The recency variable generally explained the greatest proportion of variance in psychopathology. Notably, maltreatment more proximal to the time of outcome measurement had the strongest effect, suggesting that more recent maltreatment may have stronger effects on general psychopathology. These results lend support to a recency effect of maltreatment on psychopathology outcomes, although substantive overlaps with the accumulation model are noted.

Nursing strategies to mitigate separation between hospitalized acute and critical care patients and families: A scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the nursing strategies used to mitigate the impact of forced separation between hospitalized acute and critical care patients and their families during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY/DESIGN: A scoping review was performed in accordance with JBI methodology. SETTINGS: Those acute and critical care areas in which sudden, often unexpected, emergent episodes of illness or injury were treated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Articles written in English and French between March 2020 and September 2023 in Medline, CINAHL Complete, APA PsycInfo, Embase and the Cochrane COVID-19 study register databases that met our inclusion criteria were included. Gray literature included dissertations, theses and Base Bielefeld Academic Search Engines. RESULTS: Among the 1,357 articles screened, 46 met the criteria for inclusion. Most of the articles were published in North America. Adult critical care units were the most frequently reported settings, followed by neonatal intensive care units. The most frequently reported strategies were virtual telephone or video communications. A majority of the innovative strategies involved interprofessional collaboration at the unit level. Core components included the provision of relational nursing practices, virtual visits, tailored information, fostering relationships between family members, palliative care support regarding end of life, and general information about hospitalization and COVID-19. Pediatric care settings were more likely than adult care settings to accommodate physical visitation. CONCLUSION: Nurses used synchronous, episodic, and structured virtual interactions, either alone or as part of an interprofessional team, to mitigate separation between patients and families during the COVID-19 pandemic in acute and critical care settings. IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE: Permanent policy changes are needed across acute and critical care settings to provide support for nurses in mitigating patient and family separation. We recommend that family members be considered as caregivers and care receivers, not visitors in patient and family-centered care in acute and critical care settings.

Gamification and motivation: Impact on delay discounting performance.

Delay discounting is a phenomenon strongly associated with impulsivity. However, in order for a measured discounting rate in an experiment to meaningfully generalize to choices made elsewhere in life, participants must provide thoughtful, engaged answers during the assessment. Classic discounting tasks may not optimize intrinsic motivation or enjoyment, and a participant who is disengaged from the task is likely to behave in a way that provides a biased estimate of their discounting function. We assessed degree of delay discounting in a task intended to vary level of participant motivation. This was accomplished by introducing varying levels of gamification, the application of game design principles to a non-game context. Experiment 1 compared three versions of the delay discounting task with differing degrees of gamification and compared performance and task enjoyment across those variations, while Experiment 2 used two conditions (one gamified, one not). Participants found more gamified versions of the task more enjoyable than the other conditions, without producing substantial between-group differences in most cases. Thus, more polished task gameplay can provide a more enjoyable experience for participants without undermining delay discounting effects commonly reported in the literature. We also found that in all experimental conditions, higher levels of interest in or enjoyment of the task tended to be associated with more rapid discounting. This may suggest that low task motivation may result in less impulsive choice and suggests that participants who find delay discounting experiments sufficiently boring may bias assessments of value across delays.

Reframing care while enduring the traumatic nature of witnessing disrupted family-patient-nurses' relationships during COVID-19.

AIM: To describe the lived experiences of nurses caring for patients and families in the context of COVID-19 in Brazil and United States. DESIGN: A phenomenological philosophical approach following the van Manen analysis method. METHODS: Participants were recruited in Brazil and the United States, including nurses working in health care settings caring for COVID-19 patients. Recruitment used purposive and snowball sampling. Participants completed a demographic survey and semi-structured interviews that were audio-recorded and transcribed for analysis. A cross-cultural examination occurred among researchers from each country. RESULTS: The result was described (n = 35) by the themes, representing the essences of each lifeworld (relationship, time, space and body). The nurses' lived experience was one of reframing care while enduring repeated trauma of witnessing disrupted patient-family-nurse relationships. Themes were as follows: (a) Living a silent and lonely experience; (b) Providing connectedness for disrupted patient and family relationships; (c) Feeling the burden of the demands; (d) Being a helping connector; (e) Reshaping spaces amidst evolving interventions and policies; (f) Creating safe spaces, surrounded by turmoil, threat, and distress within an unsafe environment; (g) Reorganizing care and reframing time; (h) Reconciling losses, regrets, victories and lessons. CONCLUSION: The nurses' lived experience of caring for patients and families during the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the need to respond to repeated traumas and distress posed by interrupted patient-family and nurse-own family relationships, vulnerable bodies, threatened space and dynamic and volatile time. IMPACT: Cultural nuances were discovered depending on the practice setting, political discourse and the autonomy of the nurse. Innovative models of care that create structures and processes to support nurses in caring for patients in threatening environments and the commitment to connecting family members have potential to contribute to the ongoing health of the nursing profession.

Cannabis constituents for chronic neuropathic pain; reconciling the clinical and animal evidence.

Chronic neuropathic pain is a debilitating pain syndrome caused by damage to the nervous system that is poorly served by current medications. Given these problems, clinical studies have pursued extracts of the plant Cannabis sativa as alternative treatments for this condition. The vast majority of these studies have examined cannabinoids which contain the psychoactive constituent delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). While there have been some positive findings, meta-analyses of this clinical work indicates that this effectiveness is limited and hampered by side-effects. This review focuses on how recent preclinical studies have predicted the clinical limitations of THC-containing cannabis extracts, and importantly, point to how they might be improved. This work highlights the importance of targeting channels and receptors other than cannabinoid CB1 receptors which mediate many of the side-effects of cannabis.

Measures of self-reported identity associated with sex and gender: Relations with collegiate drinking.

OBJECTIVE: Quantitative research has typically relied on categorical measures of sex assigned at birth (SAAB) and gender, with heterogeneous findings in terms of their associations with alcohol-related behavior. This investigation examined continuous indices of self-identification as an alternative to categorical operationalizations in alcohol research. METHOD: Eight hundred ninety-three undergraduate students (74.6% cisgender women, 20.3% cisgender men, 3.9% nonbinary, and 1.2% transgender), recruited from the Midwest and Pacific Northwest of the United States, completed online measures of SAAB (male/female), gender (categorical), continuous indices of identification (femaleness, maleness, and bidirectional), and alcohol consumption (Cahalan Indices; Daily Drinking Questionnaire-Revised; Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT]). RESULTS: Novel continuous measures of identification were associated with categorical indices of SAAB and gender as predicted. While none of the self-identification indices (continuous or categorical) predicted current drinking (consumption in the past 30 days), they evidenced relatively consistent, albeit small effects, across quantity-frequency of drinking and AUDIT scores for current drinkers. Higher scores on maleness and bidirectional indices of identification were associated with greater consumption, while greater endorsement of femaleness and being a cisgender woman (vs. a cisgender man) were related to less drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous self-reported identification items performed well when describing drinking behavior in college students. The inclusion of dimensional scales of identity broadens our ability to capture differing self-conceptualizations in research.

Tumor volume doubling time estimated from digital breast tomosynthesis mammograms distinguishes invasive breast cancers from benign lesions.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether lesion size metrics on consecutive screening mammograms could predict malignant invasive carcinoma versus benign lesion outcome. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed suspicious screen-detected lesions confirmed by biopsy to be invasive breast cancers or benign that were visible on current and in-retrospect prior screening mammograms performed with digital breast tomosynthesis from 2017 to 2020. Four experienced radiologists recorded mammogram dates, breast density, lesion type, lesion diameter, and morphology on current and prior exams. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the association of invasive breast cancer outcome with lesion size metrics such as maximum dimension, average dimension, volume, and tumor volume doubling time (TVDT). RESULTS: Twenty-eight patients with invasive ductal carcinoma or invasive lobular carcinoma and 40 patients with benign lesions were identified. The mean TVDT was significantly shorter for invasive breast cancers compared to benign lesions (0.84 vs. 2.5 years; p = 0.0025). Patients with a TVDT of less than 1 year were shown to have an odds ratio of invasive cancer of 6.33 (95% confidence interval, 2.18-18.43). Logistic regression adjusted for age, lesion maximum dimension, and lesion volume demonstrated that shorter TVDT was the size variable significantly associated with invasive cancer outcome. CONCLUSION: Invasive breast cancers detected on current and in-retrospect prior screening mammograms are associated with shorter TVDT compared to benign lesions. If confirmed to be sufficiently predictive of benignity in larger studies, lesions visible on mammograms which in comparison to prior exams have longer TVDTs could potentially avoid additional imaging and/or biopsy. KEY POINTS: • We propose tumor volume doubling time as a measure to distinguish benign from invasive breast cancer lesions. • Logistic regression results summarized the utility of the odds ratio in retrospective clinical mammography data.

Multidisciplinary implementation of family-based treatment delivered by videoconferencing (FBT-V) for adolescent anorexia nervosa during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Family-Based Treatment (FBT)-the most widely supported treatment for pediatric eating disorders-transitioned to virtual delivery in many programs due to COVID-19. Using a blended implementation approach, we systematically examined therapist adherence to key components of FBT and fidelity to FBT by videoconferencing (FBT-V), preliminary patient outcomes, and team experiences with our FBT-V implementation approach as well as familial perceptions of FBT-V effectiveness. We examined our implementation approach across four pediatric eating disorder programs in Ontario, Canada, using mixed methods. Participants included therapists (n = 8), medical practitioners (n = 4), administrators (n = 6), and families (n = 5; 21 family members in total). We developed implementation teams at each site, provided FBT-V training, and offered clinical and implementation consultation. Therapists submitted video recordings of their first four FBT-V sessions for fidelity rating, and patient outcomes. Therapists self-reported readiness, attitudes, confidence, and adherence to FBT-V. Focus groups were conducted with each team and family after the first four sessions of FBT-V. Quantitative data were analyzed using repeated measures ANOVA. Qualitative data were analyzed using directed and summative content analysis. Therapists adhered to key FBT components and maintained FBT-V fidelity. Changes in therapists' readiness, attitudes, and confidence in FBT-V over time were not significant. All patients gained weight. Focus groups revealed implementation facilitators/barriers, positives/negatives surrounding FBT-V training and consultation, suggestions for improvement, and effectiveness attributed to FBT-V. Our implementation approach appeared to be feasible and acceptable. Future research with a larger sample is required, furthering our understanding of this approach and exploring how organizational factors influence treatment fidelity.

We qualitatively and quantitatively examined the initial implementation (the first four sessions) of Family-Based Treatment (FBT) delivered by videoconferencing (FBT-V) during the COVID-19 pandemic using an evidence-based implementation approach. This included developing implementation teams (consisting of a lead therapist, medical practitioner, and program administrator) at each site, providing FBT-V training to all participants, and offering clinical consultation to all participating therapists and implementation consultation to implementation teams. Therapists were required to submit video recordings of their first four FBT-V sessions. Therapist adherence to key components of FBT as well as fidelity to the FBT-V model, team and family experiences with FBT-V, and preliminary patient outcomes (e.g., weight gain) were examined. Our findings suggest that our implementation approach was feasible and acceptable; therapists adhered to key FBT components and maintained FBT-V fidelity, patients gained weight, and teams and families expressed satisfaction with our intervention. Further research is needed with a larger sample and for a longer duration.

Living in COVID's Disbeliefs, Media, and Fear: Nurses in Brazil and the United States Share Their Experiences.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, nurses were placed in an unprecedented context in which they engaged with community members, family members, and friends while positioned between dire hospital situations and community disbelief about the seriousness of the pandemic, often along political lines. A secondary analysis of a qualitative study exploring experiences of 39 nurses in the United States and Brazil in engaging with the community and political discourse during the pandemic provided insights into the impact of these interactions on nurses, and implications for how nurses may emerge from this pandemic time stronger and more supported by those in administrative positions.

Paolo Freire's Pedagogy of the Oppressed: A Way Past Oppression for the Nursing Profession.

Several factors predispose nursing to being regarded as an oppressed profession. A majority of nurses are female; the role of the nurse is often seen as being under the direction of physician's orders; and the nature of nurses' clinical practice is seen as task driven. We propose that nursing can be liberated from this image of oppression by transforming nursing education to empower nurses to embrace the fullness of their practice of caring: Providing all human beings with dignity and valuing the care they provide as equally vital to the human condition as the focus on curing is to their physician counterparts. Paolo Freire's Pedagogy of the Oppressed proposes an educational model in which the teacher embraces the authentic thinking required of students in order to fully grasp their role, respecting what each student brings with them and recognizing the value of that knowledge. Trust must be built at every level of health care, beginning with nurses and their educators engaging in relationships rooted in communication, connection, and the ability to engage in productive dialogue. Should students and educators in nursing programs embrace the words of Freire, a transformation can take place in the health-care system. Nurses and nursing students will no longer carry the weight of oppression with them into the workforce.

A qualitative evaluation of team and family perceptions of family-based treatment delivered by videoconferencing (FBT-V) for adolescent Anorexia Nervosa during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, outpatient eating disorder care, including Family-Based Treatment (FBT), rapidly transitioned from in-person to virtual delivery in many programs. This paper reports on the experiences of teams and families with FBT delivered by videoconferencing (FBT-V) who were part of a larger implementation study. METHODS: Four pediatric eating disorder programs in Ontario, Canada, including their therapists (n = 8), medical practitioners (n = 4), administrators (n = 6), and families (n = 5), participated in our study. We provided FBT-V training and delivered clinical consultation. Therapists recorded and submitted their first four FBT-V sessions. Focus groups were conducted with teams and families at each site after the first four FBT-V sessions. Focus group transcripts were transcribed verbatim and key concepts were identified through line-by-line reading and categorizing of the text. All transcripts were double-coded. Focus group data were analyzed using directed and summative qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Analysis of focus group data from teams and families revealed four overarching categories-pros of FBT-V, cons of FBT-V, FBT-V process, and suggestions for enhancing and improving FBT-V. Pros included being able to treat more patients and developing a better understanding of family dynamics by being virtually invited into the family's home (identified by teams), as well as convenience and comfort (identified by families). Both teams and families recognized technical difficulties as a potential con of FBT-V, yet teams also commented on distractions in family homes as a con, while families expressed difficulties in developing therapeutic rapport. Regarding FBT-V process, teams and families discussed the importance and challenge of patient weighing at home. In terms of suggestions for improvement, teams proposed assessing a family's suitability or motivation for FBT-V to ensure it would be appropriate, while families strongly suggested implementing hybrid models of FBT in the future which would include some in-person and some virtual sessions. CONCLUSION: Team and family perceptions of FBT-V were generally positive, indicating acceptability and feasibility of this treatment. Suggestions for improved FBT-V practices were made by both groups, and require future investigation, such as examining hybrid models of FBT that involve in-person and virtual elements. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04678843 .

Examining the International Palliative Care Systems in Rural Areas: Protocol for a Comparative Case Study.

BACKGROUND: The aging population in the Global North is associated with an increased prevalence of multiple chronic diseases that would benefit from integrated palliative care. In this context, it is vital to consider the effectiveness of health care systems' response to the needs of the older population residing in rural areas, including access to palliative care services. Understanding palliative care program availability and palliative care system characteristics is important in creating useful health interventions in rural areas. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an international view on palliative care in rural areas. A study exploring palliative care services offered in Southern Minnesota will be carried out, building on a previous study conducted in Osona, Spain. Findings from both studies will be compared, providing insights into the strengths of each system and identifying areas for growth. METHODS: This study will be performed using qualitative case study methodology. Using a similar methodology to the one used in the Spanish study, palliative care services will be explored in a similarly sized rural area in Southern Minnesota. This will be accomplished by (1) reviewing available literature related to the Southern Minnesota palliative care system and (2) identifying key providers in this US palliative care system who will be invited to participate in semistructured interviews. The study participants will be asked about the gaps between ideal integrated palliative care system services and the existing complementary palliative care services, and the ethical issues and dilemmas that evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Following ethical approval for this protocol, data collection is anticipated to begin in spring or summer 2022 and is expected to take 6 months. Data collection will be followed by data analysis in fall 2022. Finally, the researchers plan to disseminate the findings in spring 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing 2 similarly sized but culturally different rural palliative care systems in Minnesota and Osona will provide insights into how integrated palliative care systems impact the older population and those with chronic illnesses. Study findings will contribute to enhanced patient care, organizational improvements, policy change, and an understanding of the impact of different health care system models. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/36037.

Examination of social smoking classifications using a machine learning approach.

INTRODUCTION: Idiosyncratic definitions of social smoking proliferate in the literature, making cross-study comparison challenging. This project investigated and differentiated four distinct classifications of social smoking using traditional modeling techniques as well as a multilayer perceptron artificial network, a novel machine learning approach suited for heterogeneous, multidimensional data. METHODS: One hundred thirty-three adults recruited from a college in the Pacific Northwest and from Amazon Mechanical Turk, age 18 to 25 (48% men; 37% women; 8% nonbinary; 73% white; 24% Hispanic or Latinx), completed a set of self-report measures assessing common variables associated with cigarette use. Participants also completed a well-validated audio simulation (Smoking-Simulated Intoxication Digital Elicitation) depicting social smoking contexts and reported their willingness to use cigarettes or alcohol in these contexts. RESULTS: Across three of the four social smoking definitions, social smokers consistently scored lower on measures of dependence, frequency, quantity, willingness to smoke, and all use motives than nonsocial smokers. The area under the curve for all four models ranged from excellent to outstanding discrimination within the training set. Frequency of days smoked in the past month was the most important predictor for three of the classification models with a relative importance of 100%. CONCLUSION: The social smoking definitions demonstrated great variability across common cigarette use variables between groups, except for one. The machine learning approach successfully differentiated all four classifications. Recommendations are made for which social smoker classifications to use in subsequent research to maximize appropriate endorsement by the target population.

From research to practice: a model for clinical implementation of evidence-based outpatient interventions for eating disorders.

BACKGROUND: A question frequently raised in the field is whether evidence-based interventions have adequate translational capacity for delivery in real-world settings where patients are presumed to be more complex, clinicians less specialized, and multidisciplinary teams less coordinated. The dual purpose of this article is to (a) outline a model for implementing evidence-driven, outpatient treatments for eating disorders in a non-academic clinical setting, and (b) report indicators of feasibility and quality of care. MAIN BODY: Since our inception (2015), we have completed nearly 1000 phone intakes, with first-quarter 2021 data suggesting an increase in the context of COVID-19. Our caseload for the practice currently consists of approximately 200 active patients ranging from 6 to 66 years of age. While the center serves a transdiagnostic and trans-developmental eating disorder population, modal concerns for which we receive inquiries are Anorexia Nervosa and Avoidant Restrictive Food Intake Disorder, with the most common age range for prospective patients spanning childhood through late adolescence/emerging adulthood; correspondingly, the modal intervention employed is Family-based treatment. Our team for each case consists, at a minimum, of a primary internal therapist and a physician external to the center. SHORT CONCLUSION: We will describe our processes of recruiting, training and coordinating team members, of ensuring ongoing fidelity to evidence-based interventions, and of training the next generation of clinicians. Future research will focus on a formal assessment of patient outcomes, with comparison to benchmark outcomes from randomized controlled trials.

A question frequently raised in the eating disorders field is whether treatments that were developed and tested in research environments can achieve the same results in real-world clinical settings, where patients' diagnoses are presumed to be more complex, clinicians less specialized, and multi-professional care teams less coordinated. The purpose of this article is to outline a model for implementing evidence-driven, outpatient treatments for eating disorders in non-academic clinical settings, specifically private practices and specialty programs. We describe the philosophy, infrastructure, training processes, personnel, and procedures utilized to optimize care delivery and to create accountability for both scientifically-adherent practice and positive patient outcomes. We also outline ways to be producers­not just consumers­of research in the private sector, and to train the next generation of scientifically-informed eating disorder specialists, all with the goal to bridge the research-practice divide.

Foot Reflexology: An Intervention for Pain and Nausea Among Inpatients With Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Pain and nausea affect a significant number of patients with cancer. Applying foot reflexology to this population has had some positive effects, but more studies are needed to confirm its efficacy. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to conduct a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effects of foot reflexology on pain and nausea among inpatients with cancer as compared to traditional nursing care alone. METHODS: A pilot study was conducted with adult patients with cancer hospitalized on a 24-bed inpatient oncology unit. Using convenience sampling, 40 patients provided consent and were randomized into either the intervention or control group. Each group had a treatment session of 20-25 minutes in which pre- and postsession surveys were completed, with reflexology performed in the intervention group only. FINDINGS: Results show that foot reflexology significantly decreases pain for inpatients with cancer as compared to traditional nursing care alone. Although the effects on nausea are not statistically significant, they may be clinically relevant; the mean changes in pre- and postsession nausea ratings indicate at least some decreased nausea among patients in the intervention group.

Social Anxiety, Cannabis Use Motives, and Social Context's Impact on Willingness to Use Cannabis.

Social anxiety is often purported to be a risk factor for increased cannabis use. Cannabis use motives are strong explanatory predictors of cannabis use embedded within social contexts. This investigation explored the impact of social anxiety, cannabis motives, and their interaction on willingness to use cannabis in a community sample of emerging adults. Social anxiety was anticipated to positively correlate with coping and conformity motives and greater willingness to use cannabis in peer social contexts. Motives to use were hypothesized to potentiate social anxiety's influence on cannabis use decision-making. In total, 124 participants completed an audio simulation of social cannabis use contexts (Can-SIDE) and standard measures of social anxiety (SIAS) and use motives (MMM). Contrary to expectations, social anxiety exerted a protective effect on willingness to use cannabis, but only when conformity, social, and expansion motives were at or below average. These effects varied by social contexts of use. Social anxiety leading to increased cannabis use may be most apparent in clinical samples and in high-risk cannabis users, but this pattern was not supported in this sample of community living emerging adults below clinical cutoffs for cannabis use disorder with relatively high social anxiety.

The information-seeking behavior and levels of knowledge, precaution, and fear of college students in Iloilo, Philippines amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 pandemic is devastating the health, social, and economic well-being of citizens worldwide. The high rates of morbidity and mortality and the absence of vaccines cause fear among the people regardless of age, gender, or social status. People's fear is heightened by misinformation spread across all media types, especially on social media. Filipino college students are one of the top Internet users worldwide and are very active in social media. Hence they are very prone to misinformation. This paper aims to ascertain the levels of knowledge, precaution, and fear of COVID-19 of the college students in Iloilo, Philippines, and determine the effects of their information-seeking behavior on the variables above. This paper is a cross-sectional survey that used a qualitative-quantitative method and snowball sampling technique. Data were gathered among 228 college students using an online survey instrument a few months after the pandemic began. College students were knowledgeable of the basic facts about the highly infectious COVID-19. However, the majority were inclined to believe the myths and misinformation regarding the pandemic. Television was the primary, most believable, and preferred source when seeking information. The Internet as a preferred source of information was significantly associated with a high level of knowledge. In contrast, the information sourced from interpersonal channels were found to make college students very cautious. The local presence of COVID-19 cases had caused college students to fear, likely exacerbated by the plethora of information about the pandemic, mostly from Facebook. This is the first study conducted on the effects of the information-seeking behavior on the levels of knowledge, precaution, and fear of COVID-19 of the college students in Iloilo, Philippines.

Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming.

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.