The perceived duration of expected events depends on how the expectation is formed.

Repeated events can seem shortened. It has been suggested that this results from an inverse relationship between predictability and perceived duration, with more predictable events seeming shorter. Some evidence disputes this generalisation, as there are cases where this relationship has been nullified, or even reversed. This study sought to combine different factors that encourage expectation into a single paradigm, to directly compare their effects. We find that when people are asked to declare a prediction (i.e., to predict which colour sequence will ensue), guess-confirming events can seem relatively protracted. This augmented a positive time-order error, with the first of two sequential presentations already seeming protracted. We did not observe a contraction of perceived duration for more probable or for repeated events. Overall, our results are inconsistent with a simple mapping between predictability and perceived duration. Whether the perceived duration of an expected event will seem relatively contracted or expanded seems to be contingent on the causal origin of expectation.

An observer model of tilt perception, sensitivity and confidence.

Humans experience levels of confidence in perceptual decisions that tend to scale with the precision of their judgements; but not always. Sometimes precision can be held constant while confidence changes-leading researchers to assume precision and confidence are shaped by different types of information (e.g. perceptual and decisional). To assess this, we examined how visual adaptation to oriented inputs changes tilt perception, perceptual sensitivity and confidence. Some adaptors had a greater detrimental impact on measures of confidence than on precision. We could account for this using an observer model, where precision and confidence rely on different magnitudes of sensory information. These data show that differences in perceptual sensitivity and confidence can therefore emerge, not because these factors rely on different types of information, but because they rely on different magnitudes of sensory information.