Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country. METHODS: We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration. FINDINGS: We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050. INTERPRETATION: Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

African Cuisine-Centered Insulin Therapy: Expert Opinion on the Management of Hyperglycaemia in Adult Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

The prevalence of diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is growing rapidly, and a steadily increasing number of adults are estimated to be living with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Insulin therapy is the treatment of choice in patients who present with severe hyperglycaemia and in most of those who do not achieve target goals on oral hypoglycaemic agents. Initiating treatment with the appropriate type of insulin based on the meal patterns and lifestyle of the individual patient is a strategy that is more likely than others to improve glycaemic control and adherence. African cuisine typically has a high carbohydrate load. Given these predominantly carbohydrate-rich food habits, it is essential to modify this dietary pattern whilst at the same time ensuring that insulin therapy is initiated, titrated and maintained in a timely manner, as needed to suit the patient's habits. To date, there are no published clinical guidelines to guide practitioners and patients on tailoring insulin to match the high carbohydrate content in African cuisine. To address this gap, we have reviewed current insulin therapy practices and propose a patient-centric guide to insulin therapy based on African cuisine. A literature search was conducted for studies published in English up to November 2019 that focused on the choice of insulin and its dosing in relation to African foods. All articles extracted were reviewed by an expert group. The recommendation of the expert group was that basal-bolus and premix insulin regimens are best suited to manage post-meal glycaemia in African cuisine. The timing and constituents of the meal, portion sizes, glycaemic load and glycaemic index of meals should be considered when choosing the type of insulin and insulin regimen. Assessment of individual preferences and comorbidities should be prioritised and form an integral part of diabetes management.

Prognostic value of the insertion/deletion polymorphism of the ACE gene in type 2 diabetic subjects: results from the Non-insulin-dependent Diabetes, Hypertension, Microalbuminuria or Proteinuria, Cardiovascular Events, and Ramipril (DIABHYCAR), Diabete de type 2, Nephropathie et Genetique (DIAB2NEPHROGENE), and Survie, Diabete de type 2 et Genetique (SURDIAGENE) studies.

OBJECTIVE: We tested whether determination of the ACE insertion/deletion polymorphism is useful for renal and cardiovascular prognoses of type 2 diabetic subjects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The French participants (3,126 of 4,912) in the Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes, Hypertension, Microalbuminuria or Proteinuria, Cardiovascular Events, and Ramipril (DIABHYCAR) trial were studied for their prognosis over 4 years according to their ACE insertion/deletion polymorphism. We used two cohorts of French type 2 diabetic patients for replication: a 3-year follow-up study (n = 917; Survie, Diabete de type 2 et Genetique [SURDIAGENE] study) and a case-control study on diabetic nephropathy (n = 1,277; Diabete de type 2, Nephropathie et Genetique [DIAB2NEPHROGENE] study). We investigated the effect of the insertion/deletion polymorphism on the primary outcome in the DIABHYCAR trial (defined as the first of the following events to occur: cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure leading to hospital admission, or end-stage renal failure) and its components. RESULTS: In DIABHYCAR, the primary outcome and most of its components were not affected by the ACE insertion/deletion genotype. Only renal outcome was favored by the I allele (P = 0.03). The risk of myocardial infarction was not affected by ACE genotype, but the probability of fatal outcome increased with the number of D alleles (P < 0.03). In SURDIAGENE, the association between the ACE I allele and renal outcome was not replicated. In DIAB2NEPHROGENE, no association was found with nephropathy. CONCLUSIONS: We were not able to demonstrate the manifest usefulness of the ACE insertion/deletion polymorphism for the prognosis of type 2 diabetic subjects.

Modulation of the renal response to ACE inhibition by ACE insertion/deletion polymorphism during hyperglycemia in normotensive, normoalbuminuric type 1 diabetic patients.

ACE inhibition protects kidney function, but ACE insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism affects renal prognosis in type 1 diabetic patients. ACE genotype may influence the renal benefits of ACE inhibition. We studied the impact of ACE I/D polymorphism on the renal hemodynamic changes induced by ACE inhibition in type 1 diabetes. We studied renal hemodynamics (glomerular filtration rate [GFR], effective renal plasma flow [ERPF], filtration fraction [GFR/ERPF], mean arterial pressure [MAP], and total renal resistances [MAP/ERPF]) repeatedly during normoglycemia and then hyperglycemia in 12 normotensive, normoalbuminuric type 1 diabetes and the II genotype (associated with nephroprotection) versus 22 age- and sex-matched subjects with the ACE D allele after three randomly allocated 2- to 6-week periods on placebo, 1.25 mg/day ramipril, and 5 mg/day ramipril in a double-blind, cross-over study. During normoglycemia, the hemodynamic changes induced by ramipril were similar in both genotypes. During hyperglycemia, the changes induced by ramipril were accentuated in the II genotype group and attenuated dose dependently in the D allele group (treatment-genotype interaction P values for ERPF, 0.018; MAP, 0.018; and total renal resistances, 0.055). These results provide a basis to different renal responses to ACE inhibition according to ACE genotype in type 1 diabetes.