Variations in Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions by State Correlate with COVID-19 Disease Outcomes

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the lack of understanding around effective public health interventions to curtail the spread of an emerging respiratory virus. Here, we examined the public health approaches implemented by each state to limit the spread and burden of COVID-19. Our analysis revealed that stronger statewide interventions positively correlated with fewer COVID-19 deaths, but some neighboring states with distinct intervention strategies had similar SARS-CoV-2 case trajectories. Additionally, more than two weeks is needed to observe an impact on SARS-CoV-2 cases after an intervention is implemented. These data provide a critical framework to inform future interventions during emerging pandemics.

K-12 School Teaching Posture Correlates with COVID-19 Disease Outcomes in Ohio

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, most US K-12 schools shutdown and millions of students began remote learning. By September 2020, little guidance had been provided to school districts to inform fall teaching. This indecision led to a variety of teaching postures within a given state. In this report we examine Ohio school districts in-depth, to address whether on-premises teaching impacted COVID-19 disease outcomes in that community. We observed that counties with on-premises teaching had more cumulative deaths at the end of fall semester than counties with predominantly online teaching. To provide a measure of disease progression, we developed an observational disease model and examined multiple possible confounders, such as population size, mobility, and demographics. Examination of micropolitan counties revealed that the progression of COVID-19 disease was faster during the fall semester in counties with predominantly on-premises teaching. The relationship between increased disease prevalence in counties with on-premises teaching was not related to deaths at the start of the fall semester, population size, or the mobility within that county. This research addresses the critical question whether on-premises schooling can impact the spread of epidemic and pandemic viruses and will help inform future public policy decisions on school openings.