Predictors of 1- and 2-year mortality in patients with rectal cancer.

AIM: Tools are needed to aid in the assessment of the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer regarding the risk of medium-term mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate clinical prediction rules for 1- and 2-year mortality in patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer. METHOD: A prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with rectal cancer who underwent surgery was carried out. The main outcomes were mortality at 1 and 2 years after surgery. Background, clinical parameters and diagnostic test findings were evaluated as possible predictors. Multivariable survival models were used in the statistical analyses. RESULTS: Predictors of 1-year mortality were being a current smoker [hazard ratio (HR) 4.98], having a Charlson index adjusted by age > 5 (HR 2.61), the presence of vascular, perineural or lymphatic invasion (HR 3.30), the presence of residual tumour at the operation (R-stage) (HR 8.64) and TNM stage (HR for TNM IV 5.10) [concordance index (C-index) 0.799 (95% CI: 0.71-0.89)]. Age greater than 80 years (HR 2.19), being a current smoker (HR 2.20), the pre-intervention haemoglobin level (HR 2.02), need for blood transfusion (HR 2.12), vascular, perineural or lymphatic invasion (HR 2.59), R-stage of the operation (HR 6.13) and TNM stage (HR for TNM IV 4.43) were predictors of 2-year mortality [C-index 0.779 (0.718-0.840)]. Adjuvant chemotherapy was an additional predictor at both outcome durations. CONCLUSION: These clinical parameters show good predictive values and are easy and quick-to-use tools to help in clinical decision making.

Prospective study of predictive factors of changes in pain and hip function after hip fracture among the elderly.

UNLABELLED: Our study identified pre-fracture variables, such as home status or function, that are directly or indirectly associated with frailty status before fracture. The prevention in the deterioration of those variables would improve the prognosis of those hip fractured, being this an important issue for the societies with increasingly aging population. INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to identify predictors of pain and declines in function among elderly patients following a fall-related hip fracture. METHODS: Patients aged 65 or older with a fall-related hip fracture retrospectively completed pre-fracture status questionnaires (T0; n = 740) and were then prospectively followed for 6 months (T1; n = 546). Of these, 474 were randomly selected to complete an additional 18 months of follow-up (T2; n = 356). Primary outcome measures were changes in the pain and function dimensions of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index questionnaire's short form (WOMAC-SF). Potential predictors included sociodemographic variables, in-hospital and clinical pre- and post-fracture data, and activities of daily living at baseline and follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression was used for analysis. RESULTS: Predictors of worsening pain at T1 and/or T2 included living in a home care situation or nursing home before the fracture (OR at T1, 1.515; OR at T2, 2.749), and low pre-fracture pain (OR at T1, 1.028; OR at T2, 1.027). Predictors of deterioration in function at T1 and/or T2 included age ≥85 years (OR at T1, 2.714; OR at T2, 4.762), lower income (OR at T1, 1.755), high pre-fracture hip function (OR at T1, 1.029; OR at T2, 1.028), referral to rehabilitation upon discharge (OR at T1, 2.378; OR at T2, 2.881), and longer delay between fall and surgery (OR at T1, 1.133; OR at T2, 1.124). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty before hip fracture is a predictor of greater post-fracture pain and deterioration in function. Given that exercise programs help prevent frailty, promoting exercise in elderly may improve the prognosis of hip fracture.