Envelope-dimer epitope-like broadly protective antibodies against dengue in children following natural infection and vaccination.

Cross-reactive antibodies (Abs) to epitopes that span envelope proteins on the virion surface are hypothesized to protect against dengue. Here, we measured Abs targeting the quaternary envelope dimer epitope (EDE) as well as neutralizing and binding Abs and evaluate their association with dengue virus (DENV) infection, vaccine response, and disease outcome in dengue vaccinated and unvaccinated children (n=252) within a longitudinal cohort in Cebu, Philippines (n=2,996). Abs targeting EDE were prevalent and strongly associated with broad neutralization of DENV1-4 in those with baseline multitypic immunity. Subsequent natural infection and vaccination boosted EDE-like, neutralizing, and binding Abs. EDE-like Abs were associated with reduced dengue risk and mediated the protective effect of binding and neutralizing Abs on symptomatic and severe dengue. Thus, Abs targeting quaternary epitopes help explain broad cross protection in those with multiple prior DENV exposures, making them useful for evaluation and development of future vaccines and therapeutics.

Primary exposure to Zika virus is linked with increased risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4, but not 1.

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by DENV1-4 in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced dengue cases caused by DENV1 (n = 139), DENV4 (n = 133), DENV3 (n = 54), DENV2 (n = 9), or an undetermined serotype (n = 39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since last infection, and year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared with flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection was associated with increased risk of disease caused by DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34 to 6.27), but not DENV1 infection. Primary DENV infection or DENV followed by ZIKV infection was also associated with increased risk of DENV4 disease. We reanalyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus immunity and antibody titer had distinct associations with disease risk depending on incoming serotype. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, is associated with increased risk of disease with certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Primary exposure to Zika virus increases risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4 but not serotype 1.

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on pre-existing antibodies and the subsequent infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has been shown to increase DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by all four serotypes in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3,412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced symptomatic DENV infections caused by DENV1 (n=139), DENV4 (n=133), DENV3 (n=54), DENV2 (n=9), or an undetermined serotype (n=39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since the last infection, cohort year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared to flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection increased disease risk of DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34-6.27) but not DENV1 (1.20, 0.72-1.99). Primary DENV infection or a DENV followed by ZIKV infection also increased DENV4 risk. We re-analyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus-immunity and pre-existing antibody titer differentially affected disease risk for incoming serotypes, increasing risk of DENV2 and DENV4, protecting against DENV1, and protecting at high titers but enhancing at low titers against DENV3. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, increases risk of certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be carefully considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Effects of boosting and waning in highly exposed populations on dengue epidemic dynamics.

Sequential infection with multiple dengue virus (DENV) serotypes is thought to induce enduring protection against dengue disease. However, long-term antibody waning has been observed after repeated DENV infection. Here, we provide evidence that highly immune Nicaraguan children and adults (n = 4478) experience boosting and waning of antibodies during and after major Zika and dengue epidemics. We develop a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS-type) model that tracks immunity by titer rather than number of infections to show that boosts in highly immune individuals can contribute to herd immunity, delaying their susceptibility to transmissible infection. In contrast, our model of lifelong immunity in highly immune individuals, as previously assumed, results in complete disease eradication after introduction. Periodic epidemics under this scenario can only be sustained with a constant influx of infected individuals into the population or a high basic reproductive number. We also find that Zika virus infection can boost DENV immunity and produce delays and then surges in dengue epidemics, as observed with real epidemiological data. This work provides insight into factors shaping periodicity in dengue incidence and may inform vaccine efforts to maintain population immunity.

Phase 1 trial to model primary, secondary, and tertiary dengue using a monovalent vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The four co-circulating and immunologically interactive dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) pose a unique challenge to vaccine design because sub-protective immunity can increase the risk of severe dengue disease. Existing dengue vaccines have lower efficacy in DENV seronegative individuals but higher efficacy in DENV exposed individuals. There is an urgent need to identify immunological measures that are strongly associated with protection against viral replication and disease following sequential exposure to distinct serotypes. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a phase 1 trial wherein healthy adults with neutralizing antibodies to zero (seronegative), one non-DENV3 (heterotypic), or more than one (polytypic) DENV serotype will be vaccinated with the live attenuated DENV3 monovalent vaccine rDEN3Δ30/31-7164. We will examine how pre-vaccine host immunity influences the safety and immunogenicity of DENV3 vaccination in a non-endemic population. We hypothesize that the vaccine will be safe and well tolerated, and all groups will have a significant increase in the DENV1-4 neutralizing antibody geometric mean titer between days 0 and 28. Compared to the seronegative group, the polytypic group will have lower mean peak vaccine viremia, due to protection conferred by prior DENV exposure, while the heterotypic group will have higher mean peak viremia, due to mild enhancement. Secondary and exploratory endpoints include characterizing serological, innate, and adaptive cell responses; evaluating proviral or antiviral contributions of DENV-infected cells; and immunologically profiling the transcriptome, surface proteins, and B and T cell receptor sequences and affinities of single cells in both peripheral blood and draining lymph nodes sampled via serial image-guided fine needle aspiration. DISCUSSION: This trial will compare the immune responses after primary, secondary, and tertiary DENV exposure in naturally infected humans living in non-endemic areas. By evaluating dengue vaccines in a new population and modeling the induction of cross-serotypic immunity, this work may inform vaccine evaluation and broaden potential target populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05691530 registered on January 20, 2023.

Spatial dynamics of inflammation-causing and commensal bacteria in the gastrointestinal tract.

In recent years, new research programmes have been initiated to understand the role of gut bacteria in health and disease, enabled in large part by the emergence of high-throughput sequencing. As new genomic and other data emerge it will become important to explain observations in terms of underlying population mechanisms; for instance, it is of interest to understand how resident bacteria interact with their hosts and pathogens, and how they play a protective role. Connecting underlying processes with observed patterns is aided by the development of mathematical models. Here, we develop a spatial model of microbial populations in the gastrointestinal tract to explore conditions under which inflammation-causing bacteria can invade the gut and under which such pathogens become persistent. We find that pathogens invade both small and large intestine from even a relatively small inoculum size but are usually eliminated by the host response. When the immune response is weak, the pathogen is able to persist for a long period. Spatial structure affects these dynamics by creating moving refugia which facilitate bouts of pathogen resurgence and inflammation in persistent infections. Space also plays a role in repopulation by commensals after infection. We further find that the rate of decay of inflammation has a stronger effect on outcomes than the initiation of inflammation or other parameters. Finally, we explore the impact of partially inflammation-resistant commensals on these dynamics.

Similarly efficacious anti-malarial drugs SJ733 and pyronaridine differ in their ability to remove circulating parasites in mice.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been a mainstay for malaria prevention and treatment. However, emergence of drug resistance has incentivised development of new drugs. Defining the kinetics with which circulating parasitized red blood cells (pRBC) are lost after drug treatment, referred to as the "parasite clearance curve", has been critical for assessing drug efficacy; yet underlying mechanisms remain partly unresolved. The clearance curve may be shaped both by the rate at which drugs kill parasites, and the rate at which drug-affected parasites are removed from circulation. METHODS: In this context, two anti-malarials, SJ733, and an ACT partner drug, pyronaridine were compared against sodium artesunate in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei (strain ANKA). To measure each compound's capacity for pRBC removal in vivo, flow cytometric monitoring of a single cohort of fluorescently-labelled pRBC was employed, and combined with ex vivo parasite culture to assess parasite maturation and replication. RESULTS: These three compounds were found to be similarly efficacious in controlling established infection by reducing overall parasitaemia. While sodium artesunate acted relatively consistently across the life-stages, single-dose SJ733 elicited a biphasic effect, triggering rapid, partly phagocyte-dependent removal of trophozoites and schizonts, followed by arrest of residual ring-stages. In contrast, pyronaridine abrogated maturation of younger parasites, with less pronounced effects on mature parasites, while modestly increasing pRBC removal. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-malarials SJ733 and pyronaridine, though similarly efficacious in reducing overall parasitaemia in mice, differed markedly in their capacity to arrest replication and remove pRBC from circulation. Thus, similar parasite clearance curves can result for anti-malarials with distinct capacities to inhibit, kill and clear parasites.

COVID-19 virtual patient cohort suggests immune mechanisms driving disease outcomes.

To understand the diversity of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and distinguish features that predispose individuals to severe COVID-19, we developed a mechanistic, within-host mathematical model and virtual patient cohort. Our results suggest that virtual patients with low production rates of infected cell derived IFN subsequently experienced highly inflammatory disease phenotypes, compared to those with early and robust IFN responses. In these in silico patients, the maximum concentration of IL-6 was also a major predictor of CD8+ T cell depletion. Our analyses predicted that individuals with severe COVID-19 also have accelerated monocyte-to-macrophage differentiation mediated by increased IL-6 and reduced type I IFN signalling. Together, these findings suggest biomarkers driving the development of severe COVID-19 and support early interventions aimed at reducing inflammation.

COVID-19 virtual patient cohort reveals immune mechanisms driving disease outcomes.

To understand the diversity of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and distinguish features that predispose individuals to severe COVID-19, we developed a mechanistic, within-host mathematical model and virtual patient cohort. Our results indicate that virtual patients with low production rates of infected cell derived IFN subsequently experienced highly inflammatory disease phenotypes, compared to those with early and robust IFN responses. In these in silico patients, the maximum concentration of IL-6 was also a major predictor of CD8 + T cell depletion. Our analyses predicted that individuals with severe COVID-19 also have accelerated monocyte-to-macrophage differentiation that was mediated by increased IL-6 and reduced type I IFN signalling. Together, these findings identify biomarkers driving the development of severe COVID-19 and support early interventions aimed at reducing inflammation. AUTHOR SUMMARY: Understanding of how the immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for improving diagnostic and treatment approaches. Identifying which immune mechanisms lead to divergent outcomes can be clinically difficult, and experimental models and longitudinal data are only beginning to emerge. In response, we developed a mechanistic, mathematical and computational model of the immunopathology of COVID-19 calibrated to and validated against a broad set of experimental and clinical immunological data. To study the drivers of severe COVID-19, we used our model to expand a cohort of virtual patients, each with realistic disease dynamics. Our results identify key processes that regulate the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in virtual patients and suggest viable therapeutic targets, underlining the importance of a rational approach to studying novel pathogens using intra-host models.

Leveraging Computational Modeling to Understand Infectious Diseases.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Computational and mathematical modeling have become a critical part of understanding in-host infectious disease dynamics and predicting effective treatments. In this review, we discuss recent findings pertaining to the biological mechanisms underlying infectious diseases, including etiology, pathogenesis, and the cellular interactions with infectious agents. We present advances in modeling techniques that have led to fundamental disease discoveries and impacted clinical translation. RECENT FINDINGS: Combining mechanistic models and machine learning algorithms has led to improvements in the treatment of Shigella and tuberculosis through the development of novel compounds. Modeling of the epidemic dynamics of malaria at the within-host and between-host level has afforded the development of more effective vaccination and antimalarial therapies. Similarly, in-host and host-host models have supported the development of new HIV treatment modalities and an improved understanding of the immune involvement in influenza. In addition, large-scale transmission models of SARS-CoV-2 have furthered the understanding of coronavirus disease and allowed for rapid policy implementations on travel restrictions and contract tracing apps. SUMMARY: Computational modeling is now more than ever at the forefront of infectious disease research due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This review highlights how infectious diseases can be better understood by connecting scientists from medicine and molecular biology with those in computer science and applied mathematics.

Quantification of host-mediated parasite clearance during blood-stage Plasmodium infection and anti-malarial drug treatment in mice.

A major mechanism of host-mediated control of blood-stage Plasmodium infection is thought to be removal of parasitized red blood cells (pRBCs) from circulation by the spleen or phagocytic system. The rate of parasite removal is thought to be further increased by anti-malarial drug treatment, contributing to the effectiveness of drug therapy. It is difficult to directly compare pRBC removal rates in the presence and absence of treatment, since in the absence of treatment the removal rate of parasites is obscured by the extent of ongoing parasite proliferation. Here, we transfused a single generation of fluorescently-labelled Plasmodium berghei pRBCs into mice, and monitored both their disappearance from circulation, and their replication to produce the next generation of pRBCs. In conjunction with a new mathematical model, we directly estimated host removal of pRBCs during ongoing infection, and after drug treatment. In untreated mice, pRBCs were removed from circulation with a half-life of 15.1 h. Treatment with various doses of mefloquine/artesunate did not alter the pRBC removal rate, despite blocking parasite replication effectively. An exception was high dose artesunate, which doubled the rate of pRBC removal (half-life of 9.1 h). Phagocyte depletion using clodronate liposomes approximately halved the pRBC removal rate during untreated infection, indicating a role for phagocytes in clearance. We next assessed the importance of pRBC clearance for the decrease in the parasite multiplication rate after high dose artesunate treatment. High dose artesunate decreased parasite replication ∼46-fold compared with saline controls, with inhibition of replication contributing 23-fold of this, and increased pRBC clearance contributing only a further 2.0-fold. Thus, in our in vivo systems, drugs acted primarily by inhibiting parasite replication, with drug-induced increases in pRBC clearance making only minor contributions to overall drug effect.

Characterising the effect of antimalarial drugs on the maturation and clearance of murine blood-stage Plasmodium parasites in vivo.

The artemisinins are the first-line therapy for severe and uncomplicated malaria, since they cause rapid declines in parasitemia after treatment. Despite this, in vivo mechanisms underlying this rapid decline remain poorly characterised. The overall decline in parasitemia is the net effect of drug inhibition of parasites and host clearance, which competes against any ongoing parasite proliferation. Separating these mechanisms in vivo was not possible through measurements of total parasitemia alone. Therefore, we employed an adoptive transfer approach in which C57BL/6J mice were transfused with Plasmodium berghei ANKA strain-infected, fluorescent red blood cells, and subsequently drug-treated. This approach allowed us to distinguish between the initial drug-treated generation of parasites (Gen0), and their progeny (Gen1). Artesunate efficiently impaired maturation of Gen0 parasites, such that a sufficiently high dose completely arrested maturation after 6h of in vivo exposure. In addition, artesunate-affected parasites were cleared from circulation with a half-life of 6.7h. In vivo cell depletion studies using clodronate liposomes revealed an important role for host phagocytes in the removal of artesunate-affected parasites, particularly ring and trophozoite stages. Finally, we found that a second antimalarial drug, mefloquine, was less effective than artesunate at suppressing parasite maturation and driving host-mediated parasite clearance. Thus, we propose that in vivo artesunate treatment causes rapid decline in parasitemia by arresting parasite maturation and encouraging phagocyte-mediated clearance of parasitised RBCs.