ABSTRACT
AIMS: To determine prevalence and incidence estimates for clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes from the Life For a Child Program (LFAC) with onset < 26 years in six representative districts, and the capital, of Rwanda. METHODS: Cases were identified from the LFAC registry and visits to district hospitals. Denominators were calculated from district-level population surveys. Period prevalence data were collected from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2012 and annual incidence rates were calculated, retrospectively, for 2004-2011. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: The prevalence of known Type 1 diabetes in seven districts in Rwanda for ages < 26 years was 16.4 [95% CI 14.6-18.4]/100 000 and for < 15 years was 4.8 [3.5-6.4]/100 000. Prevalence was higher in females (18.5 [15.8-21.4]/100 000) than males (14.1 [11.8-16.7]/100 000; P = 0.01) and rates increased with age. The annual incidence rate for those < 26 years was stable between 2007 and 2011 with a mean incidence over that time of 2.7 [2.0-3.7]/100 000 ( < 15 years = 1.2 [0.5-2.0]/100 000). Incidence rates were higher in females than males and peaked in males at ages 17 and 22 years and in females at age 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our report of known Type 1 diabetes cases shows lower incidence and prevalence rates in Rwanda than previously reported in the USA and most African countries. Incidence of recognized cases has increased over time, but has recently stabilized. However, the likelihood of missed cases due to death before diagnosis and misdiagnosis is high and therefore more definitive studies are needed.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/epidemiology , Adolescent , Age Distribution , Child , Child, Preschool , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Prevalence , Rural Health/statistics & numerical data , Rwanda/epidemiology , Sex Distribution , Urban Health/statistics & numerical data , Young AdultABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Empirical evidence supports an inverse relationship between physical activity (PA) and adiposity, but studies using detailed measures of both are scarce. The relationship between regional adiposity and accelerometer-derived PA in men and women are described. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis included 253 participants from a weight loss study limited to ages 20-45 years and BMI 25-39.9 kg m(-2) . PA data were collected with accelerometers and expressed as total accelerometer counts and average amount of time per day accumulated in different intensity levels [sedentary, light-, and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA)]. Accumulation of time spent above 100 counts was expressed as total active time. Computed tomography (CT) was used to measure abdominal and adipose tissue (AT). Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to assess the relationship between regional adiposity (dependent variable) and the various PA levels (independent variable), and were executed separately for men and women, adjusting for wear time, age, race, education, and BMI. RESULTS: Among males, light activity was inversely associated with total AT (ß = -0.19; P = 0.02) as well as visceral AT (VAT) (ß = -0.30; P = 0.03). Among females sedentary time was positively associated with VAT (ß = 0.11; P = 0.04) and total active time was inversely associated with VAT (ß = -0.12; P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study suggest that PA intensity level may influence regional adiposity differently in men and women. Additional research is needed in larger samples to clarify the difference in these associations by sex, create recommendations for the frequency, duration and intensity of PA needed to target fat deposits, and determine if these recommendations should differ by sex.
Subject(s)
Accelerometry/methods , Adiposity/physiology , Motor Activity , Adipose Tissue , Adult , Body Mass Index , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Self Report , Young AdultABSTRACT
Structure-activity relationship (SAR) models can be used to predict the biological activity of potential developmental toxicants whose adverse effects include death, structural abnormalities, altered growth and functional deficiencies in the developing organism. Physico-chemical descriptors of spatial, electronic and lipophilic properties were used to derive SAR models by two modeling approaches, logistic regression and Classification and Regression Tree (CART), using a new developmental database of 293 chemicals (FDA/TERIS). Both single models and ensembles of models (termed bagging) were derived to predict toxicity. Assessment of the empirical distributions of the prediction measures was performed by repeated random partitioning of the data set. Results showed that both the decision tree and logistic regression derived developmental SAR models exhibited modest prediction accuracy. Bagging tended to enhance the prediction accuracy and reduced the variability of prediction measures compared to the single model for CART-based models but not consistently for logistic-based models. Prediction accuracy of single logistic-based models was higher than single CART-based models but bagged CART-based models were more predictive. Descriptor selection in SAR for the understanding of the developmental mechanism was highly dependent on the modeling approach. Although prediction accuracy was similar in the two modeling approaches, there was inconsistency in the model descriptors.
Subject(s)
Decision Trees , Embryonic and Fetal Development/drug effects , Environmental Pollutants/toxicity , Logistic Models , Models, Theoretical , Animals , Forecasting , Humans , Structure-Activity RelationshipABSTRACT
Humans are exposed to thousands of environmental chemicals for which no developmental toxicity information is available. Structure-activity relationships (SARs) are models that could be used to efficiently predict the biological activity of potential developmental toxicants. However, at this time, no adequate SAR models of developmental toxicity are available for risk assessment. In the present study, a new developmental database was compiled by combining toxicity information from the Teratogen Information System (TERIS) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines. We implemented a decision tree modeling procedure, using Classification and Regression Tree software and a model ensemble approach termed bagging. We then assessed the empirical distributions of the prediction accuracy measures of the single and ensemble-based models, achieved by repeating our modeling experiment many times by repeated random partitioning of the working database. The decision tree developmental SAR models exhibited modest prediction accuracy. Bagging tended to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Also, the model ensemble approach reduced the variability of prediction measures compared to the single model approach. Further research with data derived from animal species- and endpoint-specific components of an extended and refined FDA/TERIS database has the potential to derive SAR models that would be useful in the developmental risk assessment of the thousands of untested chemicals.
Subject(s)
Abnormalities, Drug-Induced , Databases as Topic , Decision Trees , Structure-Activity Relationship , Teratogens , United States Food and Drug Administration , Chemical Phenomena , Chemistry, Physical , Databases, Factual , Environmental Exposure , Humans , Models, Chemical , No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Level , Software , Toxicity Tests , United StatesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: We present the mortality experience for a cohort of women (n = 2,877) from a large epidemiologic study of production and fabrication high nickel alloys workers (n = 31,165). All the plants were located within the United States and cohort eligibility required some work experience within the period of the late 1940s through the mid 1960s. METHODS: Vital status follow-up was through the end of 1988 and incorporated information from multiple sources. Cause-specific mortality was evaluated by comparing cohort mortality to the general United States female population and to local populations in geographic proximity to the plants. Relative risk estimates were determined for 62 cause of death categories using the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and were adjusted for age, race, gender, and calendar time by the indirect method using a modified life table technique. RESULTS: Relative risks for all causes (0.98), all cancers (0.90), lung cancer (1.34), and breast cancer (0.96) were nonsignificant when mortality was compared to the US female population. No relationship between mortality and length of time employed in the industry or work area was identified. DISCUSSION: Although there were some difficulties in tracing women due to name changes, comprehensive follow-up was obtained when using multiple sources of information. Our strategy resulted in resolving vital status for over 95% of the women, which is comparable to that of the male cohort. The type of jobs and work activities differed between genders. Females were employed predominantly in two work areas (allocated services, 87%, and grinding, 46%), whereas males were employed in several work areas (allocated services, 76%, grinding, 27%, hot working, 20%, and cold working, 17%). Considerable variation was noted among the study plants with respect to the percent of female production workers in the workforce. Generally, the patterns of relative risks derived for the total cohort and various subgroups are similar across the different comparison populations. Estimated elevated risks are usually lower when cohort mortality is compared to that of local populations. No increased risks were identified for any site-specific cancers or nonmalignant causes of death.
Subject(s)
Metallurgy/statistics & numerical data , Occupational Diseases/mortality , Occupational Exposure/statistics & numerical data , Women's Health , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Alloys , Cause of Death , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Life Tables , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Ischemia/etiology , Myocardial Ischemia/mortality , Neoplasms/etiology , Neoplasms/mortality , Nickel , Occupational Exposure/adverse effects , Occupational Exposure/classification , Statistics as Topic , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
The focus of this article is to examine how the choice of comparison group affects the identification and interpretation of cause-specific health risks in occupational cohorts when different external control populations are used. The mortality experience of approximately 31,000 high nickel alloys workers is compared with the total US population and to local populations in geographic proximity to the plants. Generally, the patterns of relative risks derived for the total cohort and various subgroups are similar across the different comparison populations. Estimated elevated risks are usually lower when cohort mortality is compared with that of local populations. An overall significant 13% risk for lung cancer is noted when compared with that of the total US population. However, no significant excess is identified when local populations are used. Subset analysis identified significant excesses of colon cancer among nonwhite males (50%-150%) and kidney cancer among white male workers employed in melting (approximately 100%), irrespective of the comparison population.
Subject(s)
Cause of Death , Epidemiologic Methods , Mortality , Occupational Health , Adult , Aged , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Industry , Male , Middle Aged , Nickel/adverse effects , Reproducibility of Results , Sample SizeABSTRACT
Three interstitial implant trial groups (one permanent low-dose rate 125I and two temporary high-dose rate 125I implants) in glioblastoma patients ('newly diagnosed' and 'failed') were compared to non-randomized similar control groups for efficacy. The results formed the basis for the BTCG 87-01 national implant trial. The 'pilot' trial demonstrated: 1) the effectiveness of a temporary high-dose rate 125I implant in 'failed' and 'newly diagnosed' patients; 2) the ability of a multicenter consortium to adhere to a standard protocol; 3) a methodology to insure quality assurance; and 4) the possibility of the future adjuvant application of hyperthermia using a single catheter system.
Subject(s)
Brain Neoplasms/radiotherapy , Glioblastoma/radiotherapy , Iodine Radioisotopes/administration & dosage , Iodine Radioisotopes/therapeutic use , Brain Neoplasms/pathology , Glioblastoma/pathology , Humans , Infusion Pumps, Implantable , Middle Aged , Quality Assurance, Health Care , Radiotherapy, Adjuvant , Recurrence , Research Design , Survival RateABSTRACT
This study assessed variation in red cell transfusion practice among adult patients hospitalized with ulcer disease (ULCER), and those undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), hip surgery (HIP), or total knee replacement (KNEE). The study design was a retrospective analysis of the 1989 MedisGroups Hospital Comparative Database, and the participants were adult patients presenting for their first admission with ULCER (N = 4,664), CABG (N = 6,812), HIP (N = 4,131) or KNEE (N = 3,042) in the MedisGroups Hospital Comparative Database. Outcome measures were whether a patient was transfused, and the number of units transfused. Logistic regression was used to analyze the decision to transfuse, and linear regression to analyze the number of units transfused. In these analyses, patient characteristics, hospital characteristics, and unique hospital identity were used as independent variables. The percentage of patients transfused was ULCER 50%, CABG 81%, HIP 69%, and KNEE 51%. The range among hospitals in the percentage of patients transfused was ULCER 11% to 76%, CABG 51% to 100%, HIP 36% to 95%, and KNEE 9% to 97%. When only patient characteristics were entered in the linear regression analyses, the R2 values were ULCER 0.33, CABG 0.11, HIP 0.11, and KNEE 0.07. When hospital was added, the R2 increased to ULCER 0.38, CABG 0.29, HIP 0.19, and KNEE 0.20 (P < 0.0001 for the change for all analyses). The results of the logistic regression analyses of the probability of transfusion were similar. There is substantial interhospital variation in the proportion of patients transfused and number of units transfused in the four conditions studied. Patient demographic and clinical characteristics explain a substantial proportion of the variation in transfusion practices for ulcer patients, but little of the variation in the three surgical conditions.
Subject(s)
Blood Loss, Surgical/prevention & control , Erythrocyte Transfusion/statistics & numerical data , Peptic Ulcer/therapy , Adult , Aged , Coronary Artery Bypass , Female , Hip Prosthesis , Humans , Knee Prosthesis , Linear Models , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Outcome Assessment, Health CareABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To examine treatment seeking for urinary incontinence among older adults and to identify characteristics associated with treatment-seeking behavior. DESIGN: Survey. SETTING: Five rural counties in northwestern Pennsylvania. PARTICIPANTS: 1104 community-dwelling ambulatory older adults aged 65 to 79 years with self-reported urinary incontinence. Participants were a subgroup of a large sample (n = 3884) who volunteered for a study of health promotion services. Those who reported urinary incontinence within the past year, during an in-person health risk appraisal, were included in this analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Reporting incontinence to the participant's physician was the main dependent measure. MAIN RESULTS: 37.6% of the participants had told their physician about loss of urine. Reporting incontinence to a physician was strongly associated with severity of incontinence as indicated by eight measures (P < 0.001). Treatment seeking was also related to type of incontinence (P < 0.001), physical disability (P < 0.01), and the pattern of health care utilization (P < 0.01). In multiple logistic regression analyses, younger age, physical disability, and frequency of physical and rectal examinations had significant predictive value independent of severity. Not associated with treatment seeking were gender, marital status, income, employment status, educational level, and distance from health care provider. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of older adults with urinary incontinence do not report the condition to their doctor. Severity of incontinence, physical disability, and a pattern of regular health care utilization appear to be the strongest predictors of treatment-seeking behavior.
Subject(s)
Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Urinary Incontinence/therapy , Aged , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Pennsylvania , Predictive Value of Tests , Rural Health , Severity of Illness IndexABSTRACT
A histological analysis of 2564 endomyocardial biopsies was conducted in 349 cardiac transplant patients to determine potential risk factors for acute cellular rejection during the first three months following transplantation. This analysis dealt with the frequency, time of onset, and duration of cellular rejection. Patients on perioperative RATG experienced significantly less rejection than patients on OKT3 or without antilymphocyte antibody immunoprophylaxis. A trend was noted toward increased rejection in recipients diagnosed originally with chronic myocarditis compared with patients in other disease categories including ischemic heart disease and dilated cardiomyopathy. No significant differences were seen in histological rejection between male and female recipients. On the other hand, patients over 55 years of age were found at lower risk of histological rejection. The results of this analysis have demonstrated quite clearly, but not unexpectedly, that a greater degree of HLA mismatching correlates with increased cellular rejection. This effect was noted not only for the HLA-A,B and DR antigens, but also HLA-DQ and HLA-DRw52/53 antigens. In multivariate analysis, the highest level of statistical significance was obtained for the combined HLA-A,B,DR and DQ group. Sensitized patients with panel-reactive lymphocytotoxic antibodies of greater than 10% experienced more histological rejection than nonsensitized patients. On the other hand, a positive lymphocytotoxic crossmatch did not appear to influence cellular rejection of cardiac allografts. Also, no differences were seen in histological rejection between ABO-identical and compatible heart transplants. These findings further support the concept that donor HLA compatibility and pretransplant sensitization represent significant risk factors for cellular rejection in cardiac transplantation.
Subject(s)
Graft Rejection , Heart Transplantation/adverse effects , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , HLA Antigens/analysis , HLA Antigens/genetics , HLA-DQ Antigens/analysis , HLA-DQ Antigens/genetics , HLA-DR Antigens/analysis , HLA-DR Antigens/genetics , Histocompatibility , Humans , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Risk Factors , Time Factors , Transplantation, HomologousABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the preparation and interpretation of sputum Gram stains by housestaff physicians in the assessment of patients with community-acquired pneumonia. DESIGN: A prospective, multicenter study. SETTING: Two university-affiliated hospitals in Pittsburgh. PATIENTS: Ninety-nine cases of clinically and radiographically established pneumonia occurring in 97 patients. Diagnostic test assessment: Housestaff and microbiology personnel prepared a Gram stain for each case of pneumonia. Housestaff assessed the presence and identity of a predominant microbial organism on the slides they prepared. Two senior staff microbiologists, blinded to patient and preparer, evaluated all slides for preparation, sputum purulence, and identification of the predominant organism. Two reference standards were used to assess the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of housestaff's Gram-stain interpretations: 1) senior staff microbiologists' determinations of the microbes present using the slides without benefit of culture results, and 2) the etiologic agent derived from results of sputum culture, blood culture, or serology. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Housestaff physicians completed a Gram stain in 58% of the pneumonia episodes. Gram stains were not made in 42% of cases, primarily because patients were unable to produce sputum. Fifteen percent of housestaff's smears were judged inadequately prepared, compared with 3% for the laboratory personnel (p less than 0.01). Housestaff obtained purulent sputum samples significantly more often than did nursing personnel (58% versus 38%; p less than 0.01). Housestaff's Gram stains were 90% sensitive for detecting pneumococcus, with a 50% false-positive rate. The sensitivity of the Gram stain was less for identification of Haemophilus influenzae than for identification of Streptococcus pneumoniae. A single antimicrobial agent was chosen as initial therapy for 50% of the patients in whom housestaff identified a predominant organism, compared with 30% in whom a predominant organism was not identified (p less than or equal to 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Although housestaff obtained purulent sputum samples more frequently than did nursing personnel, they made systematic errors in the preparation and interpretation of Gram-stained slides. Housestaff physicians should receive formal training in the preparation and interpretation of Gram stains; the specific defects elucidated in this study warrant special attention.
Subject(s)
Bacteriological Techniques/standards , Internship and Residency , Pneumonia/microbiology , Sputum/microbiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Chi-Square Distribution , Double-Blind Method , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Nursing Staff, Hospital , Personnel, Hospital , Prospective Studies , Sensitivity and Specificity , Staining and Labeling/methods , Staining and Labeling/standardsABSTRACT
We report 25 verified cases of well-differentiated cerebral astrocytomas in adults treated between 1978 and 1988. All patients were diagnosed by computed tomographic (CT) scans, with 5 undergoing a craniotomy for debulking and 20 undergoing a biopsy alone. The median survival for the entire group was 8.2 years, the longest survival yet reported for a series of patients with these tumors. A review of the literature suggests that the longer survival observed in more recent series is the result of the earlier diagnosis of tumors afforded by modern brain imaging. Twenty of our patients presented with seizures in the absence of any other focal findings and would probably not have had a biopsy in the era before CT scans until their tumors had progressed. Only 8% of our patients had papilledema at the time of presentation, in contrast to almost half of the patients with low-grade astrocytomas reported before 1975, supporting the hypothesis that patients in the CT era are diagnosed earlier. None of our patients died from progressive low-grade disease. One patient died from a squamous cell cancer, and 7 died as a consequence of their tumors dedifferentiating into a more malignant astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme, with a median time of approximately 5 years after the diagnosis. Our findings, together with the available data in the literature, suggest that death from a focal low-grade astrocytoma, in the absence of malignant degeneration, may be a rare event. Consequently, future therapeutic efforts should be targeted at preventing dedifferentiation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Subject(s)
Astrocytoma/diagnostic imaging , Astrocytoma/mortality , Brain Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Brain Neoplasms/mortality , Tomography, X-Ray Computed , Adult , Astrocytoma/pathology , Astrocytoma/therapy , Brain Neoplasms/pathology , Brain Neoplasms/therapy , Cell Transformation, Neoplastic , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Glioblastoma/pathology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Radiotherapy Dosage , Survival RateABSTRACT
Deferoxamine (DFO) is an iron chelator that is known to inhibit acute non-lymphocytic leukemia cells in vitro. To explore the possibility that this drug has cytotoxic activity in vivo, rats were inoculated with a small lethal dose (10(2] of tumor cells from the transplantable BN acute myelogenous leukemia model. Animals were then treated with one of several regimens of bolus subcutaneous DFO: 10 mg/day x 5; 20 mg/day x 5; 10 mg/day x approximately 5 weeks; or no DFO. There were no consistently significant differences in survival between any of the DFO and untreated groups. Because the short plasma half-life of DFO was thought to be a potential reason for this lack of protection, a high molecular weight polymeric conjugate of DFO that is known to provide sustained intravascular drug levels was also studied. However, hydroxyethyl starch conjugated with DFO in amounts equivalent to 100 mg free drug (intraperitoneally for 5 days) also failed to have major impact on survival. These findings suggest that it may not be possible to achieve levels of this chelating agent in vivo that are cytotoxic for this disease.
Subject(s)
Deferoxamine/therapeutic use , Leukemia, Experimental/drug therapy , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/drug therapy , Animals , Deferoxamine/administration & dosage , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Drug Administration Schedule , Female , Injections, Subcutaneous , Rats , Rats, Inbred StrainsABSTRACT
Despite much speculation about the relationship between depression and medical comorbidity in primary care settings, few investigators have examined this issue empirically. Using a two-stage screening procedure, we assessed 618 patients aged 18 to 64 years in an academic general medicine clinic. Forty-one patients (6.6%) suffered from a current episode of major depressive disorder (MDD). We compared this group with a 20% random sample of nondepressed patients. While patients with MDD were younger (mean age, 41.1 vs 47.2 years), they were assessed by the Duke University Severity of Illness Scale as having more severe medical illness. Patients with MDD were more likely to have malignant tumors and "ill-defined conditions" than nondepressed patients. The 18 patients with MDD (44%) who were correctly diagnosed by their physicians had less severe medical illness than those whose depression was clinically undetected. A logistic regression model predicting MDD group membership included female gender, younger age, higher Duke University Severity of Illness Scale score, and more frequent inactive ill-defined diagnoses. These findings are consistent with assertions: (1) patients with MDD have more physical illness than nondepressed patients and/or (2) somatic symptoms and disability caused by MDD add to the burden of physical illness.
Subject(s)
Depressive Disorder/epidemiology , Adult , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Endocrine System Diseases/epidemiology , Family Practice , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Outpatient Clinics, Hospital , Prevalence , Severity of Illness IndexABSTRACT
Infection of the lung allograft is the greatest cause of morbidity and mortality after heart-lung transplantation. To better understand the pathogenesis of these infections, we compared the results from cultures of the donor tracheas with the type and prevalence of early intrathoracic infections in the recipients. In the last 37 recipients, intrathoracic infections occurred within 2 weeks of operation in 16 (43%). Organisms isolated from the donor tracheal cultures were different from those associated with early infections, except for three of four recipients with heavy growth of Candida in donor tracheal cultures, in whom fatal invasive candidiasis developed caused by the same species of Candida isolated from the donor culture. Comparisons were made between recipients with (n = 16) and without early infection (n = 21) for age of donors and recipients, ischemic time, length of donor stay in an intensive care unit, donor arterial oxygen pressure, duration of recipient intubation, sterile donor tracheal culture or culture with presence of mouth flora, bacterial pathogens, or Candida, method of lung preservation, and antibiotic prophylaxis of donor. The only factor significantly associated with the onset of early infection was the presence of mouth flora in the donor tracheal culture (p = 0.004, Fisher's exact test, two sided). Multiple logistic regression was performed to test the additional contribution of other covariates after adjusting for the presence of mouth flora. None of the other covariates contributed to the occurrence of early infection. Recipients with early infection had a significantly lower survival compared with those without early infection (p = 0.04) by the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
Subject(s)
Candidiasis/etiology , Lung Transplantation , Lung/microbiology , Mediastinitis/microbiology , Pneumonia/microbiology , Postoperative Complications/microbiology , Pseudomonas Infections/etiology , Tissue Donors , Adolescent , Adult , Female , Humans , Lung Transplantation/mortality , Male , Regression Analysis , Survival Analysis , Time Factors , Trachea/microbiologyABSTRACT
To determine the incremental yield of ambulatory monitoring in the evaluation of syncope, three serial 24-hour Holter recordings were obtained in a consecutive series of 95 patients with syncope, the cause of which was not explained by history, physical examination, or 12-lead electrocardiogram. The mean age of patients was 61 years and 41% were men. Major electrocardiographic abnormalities were found in 26 patients (27%), including unsustained ventricular tachycardia (19 patients), pauses of at least 2 seconds (8 patients), profound bradycardia (1 patient), and complete heart block (1 patient). The first 24-hour Holter recording had at least one major abnormality in 14 patients (15%) (95% confidence interval, 8.3% to 23.4%). Of the 81 patients without a major abnormality on the first Holter recording, the second Holter recording had major abnormalities in 9 (11%) (95% confidence interval, 5.1% to 20.0%). Of the 72 patients without a major abnormality on the first two Holter recordings, only 3 patients (4.2%) had a major abnormality on the third Holter recording (95% confidence interval, 0.8% to 11.7%). Four factors were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of a major abnormality on 72 hours of monitoring: age above 65 years (relative risk, 2.2), male gender (relative risk, 2.0), history of heart disease (relative risk, 2.2), and an initial nonsinus rhythm (relative risk, 3.5). These results suggest that 24 hours of Holter monitoring is not enough to identify all potentially important arrhythmias in patients with syncope. Monitoring may need to be extended to 48 hours if the first 24-hour Holter recording is normal.
Subject(s)
Electrocardiography, Ambulatory , Syncope/diagnosis , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Arrhythmias, Cardiac/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , Sex Factors , Syncope/etiology , Time FactorsABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Our purpose was to determine which clinical features predict short-term mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicenter study of 347 patients hospitalized in Pittsburgh (the derivation cohort) and 253 hospitalized and ambulatory patients in Boston (the validation cohort) with clinical and radiographic evidence of pneumonia. Patients in the derivation cohort underwent an extensive microbiologic evaluation including bacteriologic sputum culture, blood cultures, direct fluorescent antibody testing for Legionella species, and serologic testing for Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Legionella species, and Chlamydia TWAR. RESULTS: The overall mortality was 18% in the derivation cohort and 13.2% in the validation cohort. We identified five independent predictors of mortality in the derivation cohort: pleuritic chest pain (risk ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17 to 0.99), mental status changes (risk ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.4 to 4.6), a severe vital sign abnormality (risk ratio, 2.1; 95% CI 1.2 to 3.6), neoplastic disease (risk ratio, 5.0; 95% CI, 2.7 to 9.1), and "high-risk" pneumonia etiology (risk ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 5.0). A mortality index based on these factors accurately classified patients into five risk classes of increasing mortality. In the derivation cohort, the 6-week mortality rates were 0% in class I, 2.9% in class II, 13.1% in class III, 32.7% in class IV, and 89.5% in class V. There was little deterioration in the predictive accuracy of the model when tested in the validation cohort: mortality was 2.2% in class I, 0% in class II, 13.5% in class III, 33.3% in class IV, and 55.6% in class V. CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic classification may help direct triage decisions, assess appropriateness of care, and guide the design and analysis of therapeutic trials in patients with community-acquired pneumonia.
Subject(s)
Pneumonia/mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Cohort Studies , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Pneumonia/microbiology , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Survival RateABSTRACT
Hypertension is becoming more common among Navajo people, especially among young men. In a group of 580 Navajo adolescents, we looked for factors associated with variations in blood pressure level. Using our criteria, 11.1% of adolescent males and 1.6% of females had an elevated screening blood pressure. In males, blood pressure was a function of age only, and not significantly related either to obesity (body mass index) or measures of acculturation and personal adjustment. In females, blood pressure was not related to age, but was associated with body mass index. Systolic pressure in females was also associated with poor personal adjustment. Level of acculturation (by our index) had no bearing on blood pressure level in this population.
Subject(s)
Blood Pressure , Hypertension/etiology , Indians, North American , Acculturation , Adaptation, Psychological , Adolescent , Arizona , Body Weight , Female , Humans , Hypertension/psychology , Indians, North American/psychology , Life Style , Male , Obesity/complications , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
Most primary care patients exhibiting significant depressive symptomatology fail to meet DSM-III criteria for a major depressive disorder (MDD). Yet, such patients have substantial morbidity and dysfunction attributable to their affective syndrome. Since surprisingly little is known about this group's clinical characteristics, we studied 618 general medicine patients aged eighteen to sixty-four years. In this population, fifty-seven (9.2%) scored quite high when screened on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (greater than or equal to 27) while not meeting MDD criteria on the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. Membership in the "depression symptoms only" (DSO) group was predicted by a logistic regression model including female gender, more severe medical illness, higher likelihood of operative procedures, and less frequent cardiovascular diagnoses. Our findings suggest that the DSO state is associated with substantial "medical" morbidity. Prospective studies of subclinical depression in the primary care setting are urged to clarify etiologic and treatment concerns.
Subject(s)
Adjustment Disorders/diagnosis , Depressive Disorder/diagnosis , Psychophysiologic Disorders/diagnosis , Sick Role , Adjustment Disorders/drug therapy , Adjustment Disorders/psychology , Adult , Antidepressive Agents/therapeutic use , Depressive Disorder/drug therapy , Depressive Disorder/psychology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Personality Tests , Primary Health Care , Psychophysiologic Disorders/drug therapy , Psychophysiologic Disorders/psychologyABSTRACT
Some studies suggest that home use of wood-burning stoves is an independent risk factor for lower respiratory tract infection in young children. To test this hypothesis in a population with a high prevalence of wood-burning stove use, we studied Navajo children with diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis. We matched each case (less than or equal to 24 months of age) with a child of identical sex and age who was seen for well-child care or a minor health problem, and we interviewed an adult caretaker about family history and environmental exposures. Analyzing 58 case-control pairs, we found that home wood-burning stove use, recent respiratory illness exposure, family history of asthma, dirt floors, and lack of running water in the home increased the risk of lower respiratory tract infection. On multiple logistic regression analysis, however, only wood-burning stove use and respiratory illness exposure were independently associated with higher risk.