Investigation and response to an outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup Y ST-1466 urogenital infections, Australia.

Abstract: In 2023, an increased number of urogenital and anorectal infections with Neisseria meningitis serogroup Y (MenY) were reported in New South Wales (NSW). Whole genome sequencing (WGS) found a common sequence type (ST-1466), with limited sequence diversity. Confirmed outbreak cases were NSW residents with a N. meningitidis isolate matching the cluster sequence type; probable cases were NSW residents with MenY isolated from a urogenital or anorectal site from 1 July 2023 without WGS testing. Of the 41 cases, most were men (n = 27), of whom six reported recent contact with a female sex worker. Five cases were men who have sex with men and two were female sex workers. Laboratory alerts regarding the outbreak were sent to all Australian jurisdictions through the laboratories in the National Neisseria Network. Two additional states identified urogenital MenY ST-1466 infections detected in late 2023. Genomic analysis showed all MenY ST-1466 sequences were interspersed, suggestive of an Australia-wide outbreak. The incidence of these infections remains unknown, due to varied testing and reporting practices both within and across jurisdictions. Isolates causing invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Australia are typed, and there has been no MenY ST-1466 IMD recorded in Australia to end of March 2024. Concerns remain regarding the risk of IMD, given the similarity of these sequences with a MenY ST-1466 IMD strain causing a concurrent outbreak in the United States of America.

The utility of behavioral biometrics in user authentication and demographic characteristic detection: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Objective measures of screen time are necessary to better understand the complex relationship between screen time and health outcomes. However, current objective measures of screen time (e.g., passive sensing applications) are limited in identifying the user of the mobile device, a critical limitation in children's screen time research where devices are often shared across a family. Behavioral biometrics, a technology that uses embedded sensors on modern mobile devices to continuously authenticate users, could be used to address this limitation. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review was to summarize the current state of behavioral biometric authentication and synthesize these findings within the scope of applying behavioral biometric technology to screen time measurement. METHODS: We systematically searched five databases (Web of Science Core Collection, Inspec in Engineering Village, Applied Science & Technology Source, IEEE Xplore, PubMed), with the last search in September of 2022. Eligible studies were on the authentication of the user or the detection of demographic characteristics (age, gender) using built-in sensors on mobile devices (e.g., smartphone, tablet). Studies were required to use the following methods for authentication: motion behavior, touch, keystroke dynamics, and/or behavior profiling. We extracted study characteristics (sample size, age, gender), data collection methods, data stream, model evaluation metrics, and performance of models, and additionally performed a study quality assessment. Summary characteristics were tabulated and compiled in Excel. We synthesized the extracted information using a narrative approach. RESULTS: Of the 14,179 articles screened, 122 were included in this scoping review. Of the 122 included studies, the most highly used biometric methods were touch gestures (n = 76) and movement (n = 63), with 30 studies using keystroke dynamics and 6 studies using behavior profiling. Of the studies that reported age (47), most were performed exclusively in adult populations (n = 34). The overall study quality was low, with an average score of 5.5/14. CONCLUSION: The field of behavioral biometrics is limited by the low overall quality of studies. Behavioral biometric technology has the potential to be used in a public health context to address the limitations of current measures of screen time; however, more rigorous research must be performed in child populations first. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: The protocol has been pre-registered in the Open Science Framework database ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/92YCT ).

Effects of Vitamin D Supplementation on Telomere Length: An Analysis of Data from the Randomised Controlled D-Health Trial.

OBJECTIVES: Observational studies have suggested that a higher 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration may be associated with longer telomere length; however, this has not been investigated in randomised controlled trials. We conducted an ancillary study within a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of monthly vitamin D (the D-Health Trial) for the prevention of all-cause mortality, conducted from 2014 to 2020, to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on telomere length (measured as the telomere to single copy gene (T/S) ratio). DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTION: Participants were Australians aged 60-84 years and we randomly selected 1,519 D-Health participants (vitamin D: n=744; placebo: n=775) for this analysis. We used quantitative polymerase chain reaction to measure the relative telomere length (T/S ratio) at 4 or 5 years after randomisation. We compared the mean T/S ratio between the vitamin D and placebo groups to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on relative telomere length, using a linear regression model with adjustment for age, sex, and state which were used to stratify the randomisation. RESULTS: The mean T/S ratio was 0.70 for both groups (standard deviation 0.18 and 0.16 for the vitamin D and placebo groups respectively). The adjusted mean difference (vitamin D minus placebo) was -0.001 (95% CI -0.02 to 0.02). There was no effect modification by age, sex, body mass index, or predicted baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, routinely supplementing older adults, who are largely vitamin D replete, with monthly doses of vitamin D is unlikely to influence telomere length.

Feasibility and preliminary efficacy of structured programming and a parent intervention to mitigate accelerated summer BMI gain: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the initial feasibility and preliminary efficacy of providing children a free summer day camp and a parent intervention to improve self-regulation and mitigate accelerated summer BMI gain. METHODS: This pilot 2x2 factorial randomized control trial used a mixed-methods design to evaluate providing children a free summer day camp (SCV), a parent intervention (PI), and the combination of these two strategies (SCV+PI) to mitigate accelerated summer body mass index (BMI) gain. Progression criteria for feasibility and efficacy were assessed to determine if a full-scale trial was warranted. Feasibility criteria included recruitment capability (≥80 participants recruited) retention (≥70% participants retained), compliance (≥80% of participants attending the summer program with children attending ≥60% of program days, and ≥80% of participants completing goal setting calls with ≥60% of weeks syncing their child's Fitbit), and treatment fidelity (≥80% of summer program days delivered for ≥9 h/day, and ≥80% of participant texts delivered). Efficacy criteria were assessed via achieving a clinically meaningful impact on zBMI (i.e., ≥0.15). Changes in BMI were estimated using intent-to-treat and post hoc dose-response analyses via multilevel mixed-effects regressions. RESULTS: For recruitment, capability and retention progression criteria were met with a total of 89 families participating and 24 participants randomized to the PI group, 21 randomized to the SCV group, 23 randomized to the SCV+PI group, and 21 randomized to the control. However, fidelity and compliance progression criteria were not achieved due to COVID-19 and lack of transportation. Progression criteria for efficacy was also not achieved as intent-to-treat analyses did not show changes in BMI gain that were clinically meaningful. Post hoc dose-response analyses showed that for each day (0 to 29) of summer programming children attended they gained -0.009 (95CI= -0.018, -0.001) less in BMI z score. CONCLUSIONS: Engagement in both the SCV and PI was not ideal due to COVID-19 and lack of transportation. Providing children with structured summer programming to mitigate accelerated summer BMI gain may be an effective strategy. However, because feasibility and efficacy progression criteria were not met, a larger trial is not warranted until further pilot work is completed to ensure children attend the programming. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial reported herein was prospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. Trial #: NCT04608188.

Relative rates of cancers and deaths in Australian communities with PFAS environmental contamination associated with firefighting foams: A cohort study using linked data.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are environmental contaminants that are potentially harmful to health. We examined if rates of selected cancers and causes of deaths were elevated in three Australian communities with local environmental contamination caused by firefighting foams containing PFAS. The affected Australian communities were Katherine in Northern Territory, Oakey in Queensland and Williamtown in New South Wales. METHODS: All residents identified in the Medicare Enrolment File (1983-2019)-a consumer directory for Australia's universal healthcare-who ever lived in an exposure area (Katherine, Oakey and Williamtown), and a sample of those who ever lived in selected comparison areas, were linked to the Australian Cancer Database (1982-2017) and National Death Index (1980-2019). We estimated standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for 23 cancer outcomes, four causes of death and three control outcomes, adjusting for sex, age and calendar time of diagnosis. FINDINGS: We observed higher rates of prostate cancer (SIR=1·76, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1·36-2·24) in Katherine; laryngeal cancer (SIR=2·71, 95 % CI 1·30-4·98), kidney cancer (SIR=1·82, 95 % CI 1·04-2·96) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (SIR=1·81, 95 % CI 1·46-2·33) in Oakey; and lung cancer (SIR=1·83, 95 % CI 1·39-2·38) and CHD mortality (SIR=1·22, 95 % CI 1·01-1·47) in Williamtown. We also saw elevated SIRs for control outcomes. SIRs for all other outcomes and overall cancer were similar across exposure and comparison areas. INTERPRETATION: There was limited evidence to support an association between living in a PFAS exposure area and risks of cancers or cause-specific deaths.

Early-stage studies to larger-scale trials: investigators' perspectives on scaling-up childhood obesity interventions.

BACKGROUND: Pilot/feasibility studies play an important role in the development and refinement of behavioral interventions by providing information about feasibility, acceptability, and potential efficacy. Despite their importance and wide-spread use, the approaches taken by behavioral scientists to scale-up early-stage studies to larger-scale trials has received little attention. The aim of our study was to understand the role that pilot studies play in the development and execution of larger-scale trials. METHODS: We conducted interviews with childhood obesity researchers who had published pilot behavioral interventions and larger-scale trials of the same or similar interventions. Questions were asked about the role of pilot studies in developing larger-scale trials and the challenges encountered when scaling-up an intervention based upon pilot findings. Data were coded and analyzed using an inductive analytic approach to identify themes. RESULTS: Twenty-four interventionists (54% women, 37-70 years old, mean 20 years since terminal degree) completed a total of 148 pilot studies across their careers (mean 6.4, range 1-20), of which 59% were scaled-up. Scaling was described as resource intensive and pilot work was considered essential to successfully competing for funding by 63% of the sample (n = 15). When asked to define a high-quality pilot study, interventionists described studies that allowed them to evaluate two independent factors: components of their intervention (e.g., acceptability, feasibility) and study parameters (e.g., sample size, measures). Interventionists expressed that more process implementation measures, different study designs, and additional iterations could improve decisions to scale-up. Most agreed that pilot studies were likely to produce inflated estimates of potential efficacy though only nine interventionists provided potential solutions for decreasing inflated measures of efficacy. Suggested major causes of inflated effects included high levels of oversight in pilot studies (e.g., researcher support), reliance on subjective measures, and utilizing convenience or highly motivated samples. Potential solutions included designing pilots for real-world implementation, only conducting randomized controlled pilot studies, and pre-registering pilot studies. CONCLUSIONS: Pilot studies purposes are multifaceted and deemed essential to obtaining funding for larger-scale trials. Clarifying the form and function of preliminary, early-stage research may enhance the productive utilization of early-stage studies and reduced drops in efficacy when transitioning to larger scale studies.

Wireless phone use in childhood and adolescence and neuroepithelial brain tumours: Results from the international MOBI-Kids study.

In recent decades, the possibility that use of mobile communicating devices, particularly wireless (mobile and cordless) phones, may increase brain tumour risk, has been a concern, particularly given the considerable increase in their use by young people. MOBI-Kids, a 14-country (Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain) case-control study, was conducted to evaluate whether wireless phone use (and particularly resulting exposure to radiofrequency (RF) and extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields (EMF)) increases risk of brain tumours in young people. Between 2010 and 2015, the study recruited 899 people with brain tumours aged 10 to 24 years old and 1,910 controls (operated for appendicitis) matched to the cases on date of diagnosis, study region and age. Participation rates were 72% for cases and 54% for controls. The mean ages of cases and controls were 16.5 and 16.6 years, respectively; 57% were males. The vast majority of study participants were wireless phones users, even in the youngest age group, and the study included substantial numbers of long-term (over 10 years) users: 22% overall, 51% in the 20-24-year-olds. Most tumours were of the neuroepithelial type (NBT; n = 671), mainly glioma. The odds ratios (OR) of NBT appeared to decrease with increasing time since start of use of wireless phones, cumulative number of calls and cumulative call time, particularly in the 15-19 years old age group. A decreasing trend in ORs was also observed with increasing estimated cumulative RF specific energy and ELF induced current density at the location of the tumour. Further analyses suggest that the large number of ORs below 1 in this study is unlikely to represent an unknown causal preventive effect of mobile phone exposure: they can be at least partially explained by differential recall by proxies and prodromal symptoms affecting phone use before diagnosis of the cases. We cannot rule out, however, residual confounding from sources we did not measure. Overall, our study provides no evidence of a causal association between wireless phone use and brain tumours in young people. However, the sources of bias summarised above prevent us from ruling out a small increased risk.

Can the rate of mortality and neurological recovery be predicted from the time of onset of symptoms and MRI grade in patients with cerebral fat embolism? : a study of 34 patients.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess whether it is possible to predict the mortality, and the extent and time of neurological recovery from the time of the onset of symptoms and MRI grade, in patients with the cerebral fat embolism syndrome (CFES). This has not previously been investigated. METHODS: The study included 34 patients who were diagnosed with CFES following trauma between 2012 and 2018. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed and the severity graded by MRI. We investigated the rate of mortality, the time and extent of neurological recovery, the time between the injury and the onset of symptoms, the clinical severity of the condition, and the MRI grade. All patients were male with a mean age of 29.7 years (18 to 70). The mean follow-up was 4.15 years (2 to 8), with neurological recovery being assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. RESULTS: In all, seven who had early-onset CFES (< 24 hours), and a severe Takahashi grade on MRI, died. There was a significant association between the time of onset of neurological signs and mortality (p = 0.035). Mortality was also significantly associated with a severe Takahashi grade (p < 0.001). Among the 27 surviving patients, 26 (96.3%) recovered completely. One (3.7%) had a cognitive deficit. The mean time to recovery was 4.7 weeks (2 to 13), with late recovery aftereight eight weeks being recorded in three patients. CONCLUSION: There was a significantly increased rate of mortality in patients with CFES who had an early onset of symptoms and a severe grade on MRI. Complete neurological recovery can be expected in most patients with CFES who survive. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):142-149.

Rheological, bioactive properties and sensory preferences of dark chocolates with partial incorporation of Sacha Inchi (Plukenetia volubilis L.) oil.

We studied the effect of substituting partially, cocoa butter (CB) with Sacha Inchi (Plukenetia volubilis L.) oil (SIO) on rheology, bioactive properties, and sensory preferences in potentially functional chocolate. For this 70% dark chocolates were prepared and the CB was substituted with 1.5%, 3%, and 4.5% of SIO. Hardness and viscosity of the SIO-chocolates were significantly reduced compared to the control (5451 ± 658 g; 17.01 ± 0.94 Pa s, respectively). Total phenolic content remained constant while the antioxidant capacity increased up to IC50 of 2.48 ± 0.10 as the content of SIO increased. The Casson yield stress and Casson plastic viscosity decreased as the amount of SIO increased. Chocolates with 4.5% SIO had a similar color, better glossiness, preferable snap attributes, and were more accepted (7.50 ± 0.08) compared to the control (p < 0.05), measured with a hedonic scale. Then, SIO can improve the bioactive properties of dark chocolates obtaining a potentially functional food with acceptable physicochemical characteristics. SIO can be considered as a new cocoa butter equivalent.

Risk factors for melanoma by anatomical site: an evaluation of aetiological heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma aetiology has been proposed to have two pathways, which are determined by naevi and type of sun exposure and related to the anatomical site where melanoma develops. OBJECTIVES: We examined associations with melanoma by anatomical site for a comprehensive set of risk factors including pigmentary and naevus phenotypes, ultraviolet radiation exposure and polygenic risk. METHODS: We analysed harmonized data from 2617 people with incident first invasive melanoma and 975 healthy controls recruited through two population-based case-control studies in Australia and the UK. Questionnaire data were collected by interview using a single protocol, and pathway-specific polygenic risk scores were derived from DNA samples. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression that compared melanoma cases at each anatomical site with all controls. RESULTS: When cases were compared with control participants, there were stronger associations for many naevi vs. no naevi for melanomas on the trunk, and upper and lower limbs than on the head and neck (P-heterogeneity < 0·001). Very fair skin (vs. olive/brown skin) was more weakly related to melanoma on the trunk than to melanomas at other sites (P-heterogeneity = 0·04). There was no significant difference by anatomical site for polygenic risk. Increased weekday sun exposure was positively associated with melanoma on the head and neck but not on other sites. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of aetiological heterogeneity for melanoma, supporting the dual pathway hypothesis. These findings enhance understanding of risk factors for melanoma and can guide prevention and skin examination education and practices.

Management of Tibial Shaft Fractures Distal to TKA Prosthesis by Intramedullary Nail: A Report of Three Cases.

INTRODUCTION: Diaphyseal tibial fractures distal to a well-fixed tibial component although rare present a significant challenge and optimal treatment remains controversial. Displaced periprosthetic tibial shaft fractures are ideally treated with open reduction internal fixation with plate osteosynthesis. However, this treatment method is associated with weight-bearing restrictions, which can be difficult for elderly patients with multiple comorbidities and balance impairment. We present our experience of internal fixation with an intramedullary nail that uses an inferior entry point, standard intramedullary tibial nail, and conventional instrumentation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2017 and 2018, three patients with acute tibial shaft fractures distal to a TKA (Felix Type 3A) were treated with an intramedullary nail. Preoperative planning involved assessing proximal tibia to ensure adequate room for implant and instrumentation. The average patient age was 66.3 years (range 59-72 years) and all patients were males. All the patients sustained fractures of distal tibial and fibula diaphysis, after a road traffic accident. There were no complications intraoperatively, and all procedures were completed uneventfully. One patient underwent additional fixation of the fibula. RESULTS: All patients achieved a radiological fracture union after an average of 20.6 weeks. There were no fixation failures, or nonunions postoperatively. There were no new symptoms relative to the TKA that could be attributed to the tibial nailing procedure. CONCLUSION: We recommend that this technique can be used primarily for this fracture pattern distal to a TKA, provided there is adequate space to accommodate the nail and instrumentation proximally anterior to the tibial tray.

Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study.

AIMS: We aimed to investigate the heterogeneity of seasonal suicide patterns among multiple geographically, demographically and socioeconomically diverse populations. METHODS: Weekly time-series data of suicide counts for 354 communities in 12 countries during 1986-2016 were analysed. Two-stage analysis was performed. In the first stage, a generalised linear model, including cyclic splines, was used to estimate seasonal patterns of suicide for each community. In the second stage, the community-specific seasonal patterns were combined for each country using meta-regression. In addition, the community-specific seasonal patterns were regressed onto community-level socioeconomic, demographic and environmental indicators using meta-regression. RESULTS: We observed seasonal patterns in suicide, with the counts peaking in spring and declining to a trough in winter in most of the countries. However, the shape of seasonal patterns varied among countries from bimodal to unimodal seasonality. The amplitude of seasonal patterns (i.e. the peak/trough relative risk) also varied from 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-1.62) to 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.1) among 12 countries. The subgroup difference in the seasonal pattern also varied over countries. In some countries, larger amplitude was shown for females and for the elderly population (≥65 years of age) than for males and for younger people, respectively. The subperiod difference also varied; some countries showed increasing seasonality while others showed a decrease or little change. Finally, the amplitude was larger for communities with colder climates, higher proportions of elderly people and lower unemployment rates (p-values < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the common features of a spring peak and a winter trough, seasonal suicide patterns were largely heterogeneous in shape, amplitude, subgroup differences and temporal changes among different populations, as influenced by climate, demographic and socioeconomic conditions. Our findings may help elucidate the underlying mechanisms of seasonal suicide patterns and aid in improving the design of population-specific suicide prevention programmes based on these patterns.

The impact of summer programming on the obesogenic behaviors of children: behavioral outcomes from a quasi-experimental pilot trial.

BACKGROUND: Children from low-income families experience accelerated BMI gain and learning loss during summer. Healthy Summer Learners (HSL) addresses accelerated BMI gain and academic learning loss during summer by providing academic- and health-focused programming. This manuscript reports the effects of HSL on underlying obesogenic behaviors (i.e., physical activity, screen time, sleep, diet) that lead to accelerated summer BMI gain, a necessary first step to informing a future randomized controlled trial of HSL. METHODS: In the summer of 2018 and 2019 using a quasi-experimental study design, 180 children (90 per summer, 7.9 years [SD = 1.0], 94% non-Hispanic Black, 40% male) at two schools (i.e., one per summer) who were struggling academically (25-75% on a standardized reading test) were provided a free, school-based 6-week health- and academic-focused summer program (i.e., HSL, n = 60), a 4- to 6-week academic-focused summer program (i.e., 21st Century Summer Learning program (21C), n = 60), or no summer program (n = 60). Children wore the Fitbit Charge 2™ over a 10-week period during the summers (June-Aug) of 2018-2019. Differences within (within child days attend vs. not attend) and between (differences between groups attend vs. not attend) were evaluated using mixed effects linear regression. RESULTS: Regression estimates indicated that, on days attending, HSL children experienced a greater reduction in sedentary minutes (- 58.6 [95% CI = - 92.7, - 24.4]) and a greater increase in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (36.2 [95% CI = 25.1, 47.3]) and steps (2799.2 [95% CI = 2114.2, 3484.2]) compared to 21C children. However, both HSL and 21C children were more active (i.e., greater MVPA, total steps) and less sedentary (i.e., less sedentary minutes and total screen time) and displayed better sleeping patterns (i.e., earlier and less variability in sleep onset and offset) on days they attended than children in the control. CONCLUSIONS: HSL produced greater changes in physical activity than 21C. However, attendance at either HSL or 21C leads to more healthy obesogenic behaviors. Based on the behavioral data in this pilot study, a larger trial may be warranted. These results must be considered along with the pending primary outcomes (i.e., academics and BMI z-score) of the HSL pilot to determine if a full-scale trial is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NIH-NCT03321071. Registered 25 October 2017.

A risk prediction model for the development of subsequent primary melanoma in a population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for follow-up of patients with melanoma are based on limited evidence. OBJECTIVES: To guide skin surveillance, we developed a risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using demographic, phenotypical, histopathological, sun exposure and genomic risk factors. METHODS: Using Cox regression frailty models, we analysed data for 2613 primary melanomas from 1266 patients recruited to the population-based Genes, Environment and Melanoma study in New South Wales, Australia, with a median of 14 years' follow-up via the cancer registry. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. RESULTS: The median time to diagnosis of a subsequent primary melanoma decreased with each new primary melanoma. The final model included 12 risk factors. Harrell's C-statistic was 0·73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·68-0·77], 0·65 (95% CI 0·62-0·68) and 0·65 (95% CI 0·61-0·69) for predicting second, third and fourth primary melanomas, respectively. The risk of a subsequent primary melanoma was 4·75 times higher (95% CI 3·87-5·82) for the highest vs. the lowest quintile of the risk score. The mean absolute risk of a subsequent primary melanoma within 5 years was 8·0 ± SD 4.1% after the first primary melanoma, and 46·8 ± 15·0% after the second, but varied substantially by risk score. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing a subsequent primary melanoma varies considerably between individuals and is particularly high for those with two or more primary melanomas. The risk prediction model and its associated nomograms enable estimation of the absolute risk of subsequent primary melanoma, on the basis of on an individual's risk factors, and can be used to tailor surveillance intensity, communicate risk and provide patient education. What's already known about this topic? Current guidelines for the frequency and length of follow-up to detect new primary melanomas in patients with one or more previous primary melanomas are based on limited evidence. People with one or more primary melanomas have, on average, a higher risk of developing another primary invasive melanoma, compared with the general population, but an accurate way of estimating individual risk is needed. What does this study add? We provide a comprehensive risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using data from 1266 participants with melanoma (2613 primary melanomas), over a median 14 years' follow-up. The model includes 12 risk factors comprising demographic, phenotypical, histopathological and genomic factors, and sun exposure. It enables estimation of the absolute risk of subsequent primary melanomas, and can be used to tailor surveillance intensity, communicate individual risk and provide patient education.

Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients' risk. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. METHODS: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age- and sex-adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six-level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71-4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23-2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76-0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70-0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. CONCLUSIONS: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self-assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically-assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions.

A 2-stage hierarchical interrupted time-series analysis to quantify the long-term effect of subclinical bacterial kidney disease on performance of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.).

Bacterial Kidney Disease (BKD) is an economically significant disease in salmonid aquaculture and commonly requires antibiotic treatments to reduce its impact. Once a pen of fish is diagnosed with BKD, fish are considered chronically infected, potentially until harvest. Although there appears to be little or no evidence to support it, it is often assumed that subclinical infections affect productivity over the long term. We used a 2-stage hierarchical interrupted time series (ITS) analysis in an attempt to quantify the effect of subclinical BKD on mortality, growth, and food conversion ratio (FCR) of Atlantic salmon cultured in marine farms in Atlantic Canada. For all three outcomes, BKD had for some site cycles a positive effect, and for others a negative effect. Overall, the effect of BKD on mortality and growth could not be detected (effect -0.08 ((95% ci: -0.51, 0.35) and 0.00 (-0.02, 0.02)), while a very small effect showing an increase in FCR was detected (0.07 (-0.01, 0.15)). We hypothesized that minimal interference with fish performance may be compatible with the ecology of Renibacterium salmoninarum, the causative agent of BKD. For this organism, vertical transmission is a primary mode of propagation in low-density host populations as found in the wild. Since farms are always adapting and optimizing their farm management of BKD, these constant adjustments may also have negated our ability to detect the effect of many factors contributing to BKD productivity impacts. Hierarchical ITS analysis is considered an appropriate methodology to investigate the complex relationships with productivity measures over time under farming conditions. In the highly innovative salmon aquaculture industry, health records generating data available for time-series analysis is expected to become more accurate and abundant in the future, providing more opportunities for time-series regression studies.

Associations of pigmentary and naevus phenotype with melanoma risk in two populations with comparable ancestry but contrasting levels of ambient sun exposure.

BACKGROUND: People at high risk of developing melanoma are usually identified by pigmentary and naevus phenotypes. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether associations of these phenotypes with melanoma risk differed by ambient sun exposure or participant characteristics in two population-based, case-control studies with comparable ancestry but different ambient sun exposure. METHODS: Data were analysed from 616 cases and 496 controls from the Australian Melanoma Family Study and 2012 cases and 504 controls from the Leeds (UK) case-control study. Questionnaire, interview and dermatological skin examination data were collected using the same measurement protocols. Relative risks were estimated as odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Hair and skin colour were the strongest pigmentary phenotype risk factors. All associations of pigmentary phenotype with melanoma risk were similar across countries. The median number of clinically assessed naevi was approximately three times higher in Australia than Leeds, but the relative risks for melanoma associated with each additional common or dysplastic naevus were higher for Leeds than Australia, especially for naevi on the upper and lower limbs. Higher naevus counts on the head and neck were associated with a stronger relative risk for melanoma for women than men. The two countries had similar relative risks for melanoma based on self-reported naevus density categories, but personal perceptions of naevus number differed by country. There was no consistent evidence of interactions between phenotypes on risk. CONCLUSIONS: Classifying people at high risk of melanoma based on their number of naevi should ideally take into account their country of residence, type of counts (clinical or self-reported), body site on which the naevus counts are measured and sex. The presence of naevi may be a stronger indicator of a genetic predisposition in the UK than in Australia based on less opportunity for sun exposure to influence naevus development.