Identifying uncertainty in physical-chemical property estimation with IFSQSAR.

This study describes the development and evaluation of six new models for predicting physical-chemical (PC) properties that are highly relevant for chemical hazard, exposure, and risk estimation: solubility (in water SW and octanol SO), vapor pressure (VP), and the octanol-water (KOW), octanol-air (KOA), and air-water (KAW) partition ratios. The models are implemented in the Iterative Fragment Selection Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (IFSQSAR) python package, Version 1.1.0. These models are implemented as Poly-Parameter Linear Free Energy Relationship (PPLFER) equations which combine experimentally calibrated system parameters and solute descriptors predicted with QSPRs. Two other ancillary models have been developed and implemented, a QSPR for Molar Volume (MV) and a classifier for the physical state of chemicals at room temperature. The IFSQSAR methods for characterizing applicability domain (AD) and calculating uncertainty estimates expressed as 95% prediction intervals (PI) for predicted properties are described and tested on 9,000 measured partition ratios and 4,000 VP and SW values. The measured data are external to IFSQSAR training and validation datasets and are used to assess the predictivity of the models for "novel chemicals" in an unbiased manner. The 95% PI intervals calculated from validation datasets for partition ratios needed to be scaled by a factor of 1.25 to capture 95% of the external data. Predictions for VP and SW are more uncertain, primarily due to the challenges in differentiating their physical state (i.e., liquids or solids) at room temperature. The prediction accuracy of the models for log KOW, log KAW and log KOA of novel, data-poor chemicals is estimated to be in the range of 0.7 to 1.4 root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP), with RMSEP in the range 1.7-1.8 for log VP and log SW. Scientific contributionNew partitioning models integrate empirical PPLFER equations and QSARs, allowing for seamless integration of experimental data and model predictions. This work tests the real predictivity of the models for novel chemicals which are not in the model training or external validation datasets.

Modeling sorption of environmental organic chemicals from water to soils.

Reliable estimation of chemical sorption from water to solid phases is an essential prerequisite for reasonable assessments of chemical hazards and risks. However, current fate and exposure models mostly rely on algorithms that lack the capability to quantify chemical sorption resulting from interactions with multiple soil constituents, including amorphous organic matter, carbonaceous organic matter, and mineral matter. Here, we introduce a novel, generic approach that explicitly combines the gravimetric composition of various solid constituents and poly-parameter linear free energy relationships to calculate the solid-water sorption coefficient (Kd) for non-ionizable or predominantly neutral organic chemicals with diverse properties in a neutral environment. Our approach demonstrates an overall statistical uncertainty of approximately 0.9 log units associated with predictions for different types of soil. By applying this approach to estimate the sorption of 70 diverse chemicals from water to two types of soils, we uncover that different chemicals predominantly exhibit sorption onto different soil constituents. Moreover, we provide mechanistic insights into the limitation of relying solely on organic carbon normalized sorption coefficient (KOC) in chemical hazard assessment, as the measured KOC can vary significantly across different soil types, and therefore, a universal cut-off threshold may not be appropriate. This research highlights the importance of considering chemical properties and multiple solid constituents in sorption modeling and offers a valuable theoretical approach for improved chemical hazard and exposure assessments.

Chemical Space Covered by Applicability Domains of Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships and Semiempirical Relationships in Chemical Assessments.

A significant number of chemicals registered in national and regional chemical inventories require assessments of their potential "hazard" concerns posed to humans and ecological receptors. This warrants knowledge of their partitioning and reactivity properties, which are often predicted by quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs) and other semiempirical relationships. It is imperative to evaluate the applicability domain (AD) of these tools to ensure their suitability for assessment purpose. Here, we investigate the extent to which the ADs of commonly used QSPRs and semiempirical relationships cover seven partitioning and reactivity properties of a chemical "space" comprising 81,000+ organic chemicals registered in regulatory and academic chemical inventories. Our findings show that around or more than half of the chemicals studied are covered by at least one of the commonly used QSPRs. The investigated QSPRs demonstrate adequate AD coverage for organochlorides and organobromines but limited AD coverage for chemicals containing fluorine and phosphorus. These QSPRs exhibit limited AD coverage for atmospheric reactivity, biodegradation, and octanol-air partitioning, particularly for ionizable organic chemicals compared to nonionizable ones, challenging assessments of environmental persistence, bioaccumulation capability, and long-range transport potential. We also find that a predictive tool's AD coverage of chemicals depends on how the AD is defined, for example, by the distance of a predicted chemical from the centroid of the training chemicals or by the presence or absence of structural features.

Quantitative Structure Use Relationships: Highlights from a technical summit meeting.

The Quantitative Structure Use Relationship (QSUR) Summit, held on November 2-4, 2022, focused on advancing the development, refinement, and use of QSURs to support chemical substance prioritization and risk assessment and mitigation. QSURs utilize chemical structures to predict the function of a chemical within a formulated product or an industrial process. This presumed function can then be used to develop chemical use categories or other information necessary to refine exposure assessments. The invited expert meeting was attended by 38 scientists from Canada, Finland, France, the UK, and the USA, representing government, business, and academia, with expertise in exposure science, chemical engineering, risk assessment, formulation chemistry, and machine learning. Workshop discussions emphasized the importance of collection and sharing of data and quantification of relative chemical quantities to progress QSUR development. Participants proposed collaborative approaches to address key challenges, including mechanisms for aggregating information while still protecting proprietary product composition and other confidential business information. Discussions also led to proposals for applications beyond exposure and risk modeling, including sustainable formulation discovery. In addition, discussions continue to construct, conduct, and circulate case studies tied to various specific problem formulations in which QSURs supply or derive information on chemical functions, concentrations, and exposures.

Hazard vs. exposure: Does it make a difference in identifying chemicals with persistence and mobility concerns?

Persistent and mobile (PM) chemicals are considered emerging threats to the environment and drinking water because they can be transported over long distances, penetrate natural and artificial barriers, and resist removal by traditional water treatment procedures. Current chemical regulatory frameworks raise concerns over PM chemicals due to their potential to cause high human exposure through drinking water contamination. However, the criteria used to screen and identify these chemicals often rely on hazard properties related to stability and sorption, such as biodegradation half-lives and organic-carbon-normalized sorption coefficients as respective measures of P and M. Here, we conduct a model-based assessment to examine the consistency between hazard-based and exposure-based approaches in assessing PM chemicals, by evaluating whether chemicals identified as highly P and M are consistently associated with high drinking water exposure potential (DWEP). We discover that chemicals with the top DWEPs tend to be PM chemicals, but the reverse is not always true, because DWEPs are also impacted by volatilization for air-distributed chemicals and advective particle-bound transport for particle-bound chemicals. Our findings suggest that the hazard metrics are better suited for de-prioritizing, as opposed to prioritizing, chemicals that are unlikely to result in significant human exposure through drinking water, as unfavorable values of hazard metrics are a necessary but not sufficient condition for a high DWEP. We also find that distinct mechanisms determine the DWEP in different sources of drinking water: Sorption and stability are more influential on the DWEP of chemicals in groundwater and surface water, respectively, whereas both sorption and stability equally impact water undergoing riverbank filtration. Future studies should focus on optimizing the identification of persistent and mobile chemicals to ensure that exposure potential is taken into consideration.

A framework for understanding the bioconcentration of surfactants in fish.

Surfactants are a class of chemicals released in large quantities to water, and therefore bioconcentration in fish is an important component of their safety assessment. Their structural diversity, which encompasses nonionic, anionic, cationic and zwitterionic molecules with a broad range of lipophilicity, makes their evaluation challenging. A strong influence of environmental pH adds a further layer of complexity to their bioconcentration assessment. Here we present a framework that penetrates this complexity. Using simple equations derived from current understanding of the relevant underlying processes, we plot the key bioconcentration parameters (uptake rate constant, elimination rate constant and bioconcentration factor) as a function of its membrane lipid/water distribution ratio and the neutral fraction of the chemical in water at pH 8.1 and at pH 6.1. On this chemical space plot, we indicate boundaries at which four resistance terms (perfusion with water, transcellular, paracellular, and perfusion with blood) limit transport of surfactants across the gills. We then show that the bioconcentration parameters predicted by this framework align well with in vivo measurements of anionic, cationic and nonionic surfactants in fish. In doing so, we demonstrate how the framework can be used to explore expected differences in bioconcentration behavior within a given sub-class of surfactants, to assess how pH will influence bioconcentration, to identify the underlying processes governing bioconcentration of a particular surfactant, and to discover knowledge gaps that require further research. This framework for amphiphilic chemicals may function as a template for improved understanding of the accumulation potential of other ionizable chemicals of environmental concern, such as pharmaceuticals or dyes.

An amended in vitro-in vivo extrapolation model that accounts for first pass clearance effects on chemical bioaccumulation in fish.

Measured rates of in vitro intrinsic clearance for fish may be extrapolated to the whole animal as a means of estimating a whole-body biotransformation rate constant (kB; d-1). This estimate of kB can then be used as an input to existing bioaccumulation prediction models. Most in vitro-in vivo extrapolation/bioaccumulation (IVIVE/B) modeling efforts to date have focused on predicting the chemical bioconcentration in fish (aqueous only exposure), with less attention paid to dietary exposures. Following dietary uptake, biotransformation in the gut lumen, intestinal epithelia, and liver can reduce chemical accumulation; however, current IVIVE/B models do not consider these first pass clearance effects on dietary uptake. Here we present an amended IVIVE/B model that accounts for first pass clearance. The model is then used to examine how biotransformation in the liver and intestinal epithelia (alone or combined) may impact chemical accumulation that occurs during dietary exposure. First pass clearance by the liver can greatly reduce dietary uptake of contaminants, but these effects are only apparent at rapid rates of in vitro biotransformation (first order depletion rate constant kDEP ≥ 10 h-1). The impact of first pass clearance becomes more pronounced when biotransformation in the intestinal epithelia is included in the model. Modelled results suggest that biotransformation in the liver and intestinal epithelia cannot entirely explain reduced dietary uptake reported in several in vivo bioaccumulation tests. This unexplained reduction in dietary uptake is attributed to chemical degradation in the gut lumen. These findings underscore the need for research to directly investigate luminal biotransformation in fish.

A weight of evidence approach for bioaccumulation assessment.

Bioaccumulation assessments conducted by regulatory agencies worldwide use a variety of methods, types of data, metrics, and categorization criteria. Lines of evidence (LoE) for bioaccumulation assessment can include bioaccumulation metrics such as in vivo bioconcentration factor (BCF) and biomagnification factor (BMF) data measured from standardized laboratory experiments, and field (monitoring) data such as BMFs, bioaccumulation factors (BAFs), and trophic magnification factors (TMFs). In silico predictions from mass-balance models and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and a combination of in vitro biotransformation rates and in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) models can also be used. The myriad bioaccumulation metrics and categorization criteria and underlying uncertainty in measured or modeled data can make decision-making challenging. A weight of evidence (WoE) approach is recommended to address uncertainty. The Bioaccumulation Assessment Tool (BAT) guides a user through the process of collecting and generating various LoE required for assessing the bioaccumulation of neutral and ionizable organic chemicals in aquatic (water-respiring) and air-breathing organisms. The BAT includes data evaluation templates (DETs) to critically evaluate the reliability of the LoE used in the assessment. The DETs were developed from standardized testing guidance. The approach used in the BAT is consistent with OECD and SETAC WoE principles and facilitates the implementation of chemical policy objectives in chemical assessment and management. The recommended methods are also iterative and tiered, providing pragmatic methods to reduce unnecessary animal testing. General concepts of the BAT are presented and case study applications of the tool for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and ß-hexachlorocyclohexane (ß-HCH) are demonstrated. The BAT provides a consistent and transparent WoE framework to address uncertainty in bioaccumulation assessment and is envisaged to evolve with scientific and regulatory developments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1235-1253. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Developing an internal threshold of toxicological concern (iTTC).

BACKGROUND: Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approaches are used for chemical safety assessment and risk-based priority setting for data poor chemicals. TTCs are derived from in vivo No Observed Effect Level (NOEL) datasets involving an external administered dose from a single exposure route, e.g., oral intake rate. Thus, a route-specific TTC can only be compared to a route-specific exposure estimate and such TTCs cannot be used for other exposure scenarios such as aggregate exposures. OBJECTIVE: Develop and apply a method for deriving internal TTCs (iTTCs) that can be used in chemical assessments for multiple route-specific exposures (e.g., oral, inhalation or dermal) or aggregate exposures. METHODS: Chemical-specific toxicokinetics (TK) data and models are applied to calculate internal concentrations (whole-body and blood) from the reported administered oral dose NOELs used to derive the Munro TTCs. The new iTTCs are calculated from the 5th percentile of cumulative distributions of internal NOELs and the commonly applied uncertainty factor of 100 to extrapolate animal testing data for applications in human health assessment. RESULTS: The new iTTCs for whole-body and blood are 0.5 nmol/kg and 0.1 nmol/L, respectively. Because the iTTCs are expressed on a molar basis they are readily converted to chemical mass iTTCs using the molar mass of the chemical of interest. For example, the median molar mass in the dataset is 220 g/mol corresponding to an iTTC of 22 ng/L-blood (22 pg/mL-blood). The iTTCs are considered broadly applicable for many organic chemicals except those that are genotoxic or acetylcholinesterase inhibitors. The new iTTCs can be compared with measured or estimated whole-body or blood exposure concentrations for chemical safety screening and priority-setting. SIGNIFICANCE: Existing Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approaches are limited in their applications for route-specific exposure scenarios only and are not suitable for chemical risk and safety assessments under conditions of aggregate exposure. New internal Threshold of Toxicological Concern (iTTC) values are developed to address data gaps in chemical safety estimation for multi-route and aggregate exposures.

In vitro biotransformation assays using fish liver cells: Comparing rainbow trout and carp hepatocytes.

Biotransformation assays using primary hepatocytes from rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, were validated as a reliable in vitro tool to predict in vivo bioconcentration factors (BCF) of chemicals in fish. Given the pronounced interspecies differences of chemical biotransformation, the present study aimed to compare biotransformation rate values and BCF predictions obtained with hepatocytes from the cold-water species, rainbow trout, to data obtained with hepatocytes of the warm-water species, common carp (Cyprinus carpio). In a first step, we adapted the protocol for the trout hepatocyte assay, including the cryopreservation method, to carp hepatocytes. The successful adaptation serves as proof of principle that the in vitro hepatocyte biotransformation assays can be technically transferred across fish species. In a second step, we compared the in vitro intrinsic clearance rates (CLin vitro, int) of two model xenobiotics, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) and methoxychlor (MXC), in trout and carp hepatocytes. The in vitro data were used to predict in vivo biotransformation rate constants (kB) and BCFs, which were then compared to measured in vivo kB and BCF values. The CLin vitro, int values of BaP and MXC did not differ significantly between trout and carp hepatocytes, but the predicted BCF values were significantly higher in trout than in carp. In contrast, the measured in vivo BCF values did not differ significantly between the two species. A possible explanation of this discrepancy is that the existing in vitro-in vivo prediction models are parameterized only for trout but not for carp. Therefore, future research needs to develop species-specific extrapolation models.

Dynamic Mass Balance Modeling for Chemical Distribution Over Time in In Vitro Systems With Repeated Dosing.

As toxicologists and risk assessors move away from animal testing and more toward using in vitro models and biological modeling, it is necessary to produce tools to quantify the chemical distribution within the in vitro environment prior to extrapolating in vitro concentrations to human equivalent doses. Although models predicting chemical distribution in vitro have been developed, very little has been done for repeated dosing scenarios, which are common in prolonged experiments where the medium needs to be refreshed. Failure to account for repeated dosing may lead to inaccurate estimations of exposure and introduce bias into subsequent in vitro to in vivo extrapolations. Our objectives were to develop a dynamic mass balance model for repeated dosing in in vitro systems; to evaluate model accuracy against experimental data; and to perform illustrative simulations to assess the impact of repeated doses on predicted cellular concentrations. A novel dynamic in vitro partitioning mass balance model (IV-MBM DP v1.0) was created based on the well-established fugacity approach. We parameterized and applied the dynamic mass balance model to single dose and repeat dosing scenarios, and evaluated the predicted medium and cellular concentrations against available empirical data. We also simulated repeated dosing scenarios for organic chemicals with a range of partitioning properties and compared the in vitro distributions over time. In single dose scenarios, for which only medium concentrations were available, simulated concentrations predicted measured concentrations with coefficients of determination (R 2) of 0.85-0.89, mean absolute error within a factor of two and model bias of nearly one. Repeat dose scenario simulations displayed model bias <2 within the cell lysate, and ∼1.5-3 in the medium. The concordance between simulated and available experimental data supports the predictive capacity of the IV-MBM DP v1.0 tool, but further evaluation as empirical data becomes available is warranted, especially for cellular concentrations.

In Vivo Bioconcentration of 10 Anionic Surfactants in Rainbow Trout Explained by In Vitro Data on Partitioning and S9 Clearance.

Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) in rainbow trout were measured for 10 anionic surfactants with a range of alkyl chain lengths and different polar head groups. The BCFs ranged from 0.04 L kg-1 ww (for C10SO3) to 1370 L kg-1 ww (C16SO3). There was a strong correlation between the log BCF and log membrane lipid-water distribution ratio (DMLW, r2 = 0.96), and biotransformation was identified as the dominant elimination mechanism. The strong positive influence of DMLW on BCF was attributed to two phenomena: (i) increased partitioning from water into the epithelial membrane of the gill, leading to more rapid diffusion across this barrier and more rapid uptake, and (ii) increased sequestration of the surfactant body burden into membranes and other body tissues, resulting in lower freely dissolved concentrations available for biotransformation. Estimated whole-body in vivo biotransformation rate constants kB-BCF are within a factor three of rate constants estimated from S9 in vitro assays for six of the eight test chemicals for which kB-BCF could be determined. A model-based assessment indicated that the hepatic clearance rate of freely dissolved chemicals was similar for the studied surfactants. The dataset will be useful for evaluation of in silico and in vitro methods to assess bioaccumulation.

Risk-based prioritization of organic substances in the Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventory using an evaluative regional-scale multimedia mass balance model.

The National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) is a Canadian inventory of facility-reported data on releases, transfers, and disposals of over 300 pollutants, but it does not contain information on chemical properties or other characteristics critical to understanding environmental and human health risks. To reconcile this gap, we use the Risk Assessment IDentification And Ranking (RAIDAR) model to integrate NPRI release data with chemical property information in a multimedia mass balance model to combine exposure estimates with toxicity hazard data yielding an estimate of risk for 198 NPRI organic substances reported in 2010-2019. The presented case study further corroborates the hypothesis that risk-based ranking gives rise to different chemical priorities versus ranking based on release quantity alone. Chemicals like propane and hexane (except n-hexane) are in the top 10 highest-ranked organic substances based on emission quantities reported to NPRI but are ranked outside the top 10 based on corresponding regional-scale risk estimates. On the contrary, dioxins and furans are ranked very low based on emissions quantities reported to NPRI but are ranked higher based on corresponding risk estimates. The results also suggest that although quantities of some NPRI organic pollutant releases change over time, the ensuing risk estimates are not always directly proportional to these changes. This can be explained by changes in mode of entry to the environment that can influence the overall fate and exposure of the same chemicals, highlighting the complex dynamics that can occur when simulating fate and risk as opposed to quantity alone. Limitations are discussed and recommendations are provided for improving the priority setting methods, including reducing the uncertainty of the NPRI data and the need for multimedia models to address point source emissions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1722-1732. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Retrieval, Selection, and Evaluation of Chemical Property Data for Assessments of Chemical Emissions, Fate, Hazard, Exposure, and Risks.

Reliable chemical property data are the key to defensible and unbiased assessments of chemical emissions, fate, hazard, exposure, and risks. However, the retrieval, evaluation, and use of reliable chemical property data can often be a formidable challenge for chemical assessors and model users. This comprehensive review provides practical guidance for use of chemical property data in chemical assessments. We assemble available sources for obtaining experimentally derived and in silico predicted property data; we also elaborate strategies for evaluating and curating the obtained property data. We demonstrate that both experimentally derived and in silico predicted property data can be subject to considerable uncertainty and variability. Chemical assessors are encouraged to use property data derived through the harmonization of multiple carefully selected experimental data if a sufficient number of reliable laboratory measurements is available or through the consensus consolidation of predictions from multiple in silico tools if the data pool from laboratory measurements is not adequate.

Development and Evaluation of a Holistic and Mechanistic Modeling Framework for Chemical Emissions, Fate, Exposure, and Risk.

BACKGROUND: Large numbers of chemicals require evaluation to determine if their production and use pose potential risks to ecological and human health. For most chemicals, the inadequacy and uncertainty of chemical-specific data severely limit the application of exposure- and risk-based methods for screening-level assessments, priority setting, and effective management. OBJECTIVE: We developed and evaluated a holistic, mechanistic modeling framework for ecological and human health assessments to support the safe and sustainable production, use, and disposal of organic chemicals. METHODS: We consolidated various models for simulating the PROduction-To-EXposure (PROTEX) continuum with empirical data sets and models for predicting chemical property and use function information to enable high-throughput (HT) exposure and risk estimation. The new PROTEX-HT framework calculates exposure and risk by integrating mechanistic computational modules describing chemical behavior and fate in the socioeconomic system (i.e., life cycle emissions), natural and indoor environments, various ecological receptors, and humans. PROTEX-HT requires only molecular structure and chemical tonnage (i.e., annual production or consumption volume) as input information. We evaluated the PROTEX-HT framework using 95 organic chemicals commercialized in the United States and demonstrated its application in various exposure and risk assessment contexts. RESULTS: Seventy-nine percent and 97% of the PROTEX-HT human exposure predictions were within one and two orders of magnitude, respectively, of independent human exposure estimates inferred from biomonitoring data. PROTEX-HT supported screening and ranking chemicals based on various exposure and risk metrics, setting chemical-specific maximum allowable tonnage based on user-defined toxicological thresholds, and identifying the most relevant emission sources, environmental media, and exposure routes of concern in the PROTEX continuum. The case study shows that high chemical tonnage did not necessarily result in high exposure or health risks. CONCLUSION: Requiring only two chemical-specific pieces of information, PROTEX-HT enables efficient screening-level evaluations of existing and premanufacture chemicals in various exposure- and risk-based contexts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9372.

Screening the baseline fish bioconcentration factor of various types of surfactants using phospholipid binding data.

Fish bioconcentration factors (BCFs) are commonly used in chemical hazard and risk assessment. For neutral organic chemicals BCFs are positively correlated with the octanol-water partition ratio (KOW), but KOW is not a reliable parameter for surfactants. Membrane lipid-water distribution ratios (DMLW) can be accurately measured for all kinds of surfactants, using phospholipid-based sorbents. This study first demonstrates that DMLW values for ionic surfactants are more than 100 000 times higher than the partition ratio to fish-oil, representing neutral storage lipid. A non-ionic alcohol ethoxylate surfactant showed almost equal affinity for both lipid types. Accordingly, a baseline screening BCF value for surfactants (BCFbaseline) can be approximated for ionic surfactants by multiplying DMLW by the phospholipid fraction in tissue, and for non-ionic surfactants by multiplying DMLW by the total lipid fraction. We measured DMLW values for surfactant structures, including linear and branched alkylbenzenesulfonates, an alkylsulfoacetate and an alkylethersulfate, bis(2-ethylhexyl)-surfactants (e.g., docusate), zwitterionic alkylbetaines and alkylamine-oxides, and a polyprotic diamine. Together with sixty previously published DMLW values for surfactants, structure-activity relationships were derived to elucidate the influence of surfactant specific molecular features on DMLW. For 23 surfactant types, we established the alkyl chain length at which BCFbaseline would exceed the EU REACH bioaccumulation (B) threshold of 2000 L kg-1, and would therefore require higher tier assessments to further refine the BCF estimate. Finally, the derived BCFbaseline are compared with measured literature in vivo BCF data where available, suggesting that refinements, most notably reliable estimates of biotransformation rates, are needed for most surfactant types.

Update and Evaluation of a High-Throughput In Vitro Mass Balance Distribution Model: IV-MBM EQP v2.0.

This study demonstrates the utility of an updated mass balance model for predicting the distribution of organic chemicals in in vitro test systems (IV-MBM EQP v2.0) and evaluates its performance with empirical data. The IV-MBM EQP v2.0 tool was parameterized and applied to four independent data sets with measured ratios of bulk medium or freely-dissolved to initial nominal concentrations (e.g., C24/C0 where C24 is the measured concentration after 24 h of exposure and C0 is the initial nominal concentration). Model performance varied depending on the data set, chemical properties (e.g., "volatiles" vs. "non-volatiles", neutral vs. ionizable organics), and model assumptions but overall is deemed acceptable. For example, the r2 was greater than 0.8 and the mean absolute error (MAE) in the predictions was less than a factor of two for most neutral organics included. Model performance was not as good for the ionizable organic chemicals included but the r2 was still greater than 0.7 and the MAE less than a factor of three. The IV-MBM EQP v2.0 model was subsequently applied to several hundred chemicals on Canada's Domestic Substances List (DSL) with nominal effects data (AC50s) reported for two in vitro assays. We report the frequency of chemicals with AC50s corresponding to predicted cell membrane concentrations in the baseline toxicity range (i.e., >20-60 mM) and tabulate the number of chemicals with "volatility issues" (majority of chemical in headspace) and "solubility issues" (freely-dissolved concentration greater than water solubility after distribution). In addition, the predicted "equivalent EQP blood concentrations" (i.e., blood concentration at equilibrium with predicted cellular concentration) were compared to the AC50s as a function of hydrophobicity (log octanol-water partition or distribution ratio). The predicted equivalent EQP blood concentrations exceed the AC50 by up to a factor of 100 depending on hydrophobicity and assay conditions. The implications of using AC50s as direct surrogates for human blood concentrations when estimating the oral equivalent doses using a toxicokinetic model (i.e., reverse dosimetry) are then briefly discussed.