Prospects of cryosphere-fed Kuhl irrigation system nurturing high mountain agriculture under changing climate in the Upper Indus Basin.

Changing cryosphere and growing population have raised the importance of extending agriculture and improving the livelihoods of local communities in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). In the present study, prospects of cryosphere-fed irrigation were investigated through adopting topographic suitability and water availability indexing approach to broaden the base of agriculture and socio-economic activities in the UIB of Pakistan. Topographic suitability for crop farming was found high (<15° slope below 3000 m) over 47.8% area of the Swat, 23.6% of the Indus, 16.6% of the Jhelum basin and overall 14.6% of the UIB region. This land can be developed through kuhl systems subject to availability of sufficient water resources. The glacier-melt was found >8.0 liters/sec/hectare in the Karakoram basins, i.e., Hunza, Shigar and Shyok, and within 4.0-8.0 lps/ha in the Chitral and Astore river basins. The scarcity of land and water was found (one at a time or both at once) at certain locations which may impact agricultural productivity in the region. In places with limited land for farming opportunities, the basis of livelihoods can be broaden through diversifying income sources, e.g. availing off-farm and nonlocal income opportunities. However, while framing adaptation process, the socio-political complexity of the area should be taken into account, as optimum integration of natural and socioeconomic aspects would ensure sustainable development in this high altitude region in future.

Appraisal of groundwater recharge in Neelum watershed (Upper Indus Basin) using geospatial water balance technique.

Water availability is important for survival of millions of people living in the Himalayan region of Upper Indus Basin and adequate monitoring system is for better water resources management. In the present study, groundwater recharge appraisals in the Neelum watershed (Upper Indus Basin) were investigated by using water balance and geospatial modeling techniques on monthly time-scale climate data from 1989 to 2015. Results demonstrated that on an average out of total annual rainfall (i.e., 2028 mm), about 46% of the rainfall convert to surface runoff and 35% loss to atmosphere via evapo-transpiration (ET), while the remaining 18% contribute to infiltrate the groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge enhanced during snow-melt from December to March and the rainfall infiltration increased during July and August months. Similarly, the infiltration ranges 106-177 mm from January to March and 45-51 mm from December to July. The groundwater discharge in the form of oozing from the spring occurred during the remaining six months, which ultimately contributed to the baseflow of the stream. Findings from the study revealed variations in groundwater recharge during the years and hence recommended more hydrological studies to predict future changes in climate and land use for sustainable development of freshwater resources in the Upper Indus Basin.

Prevalence of facet joint arthritis and its association with spinal pain in mountain population - A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: People living in the mountains are subject to tough terrain and climbing biomechanics which lead to degeneration of the spine and Facet joint arthritis (FJA). AIMS: The goal of present study was (1) to know the prevalence of facet joint arthritis on CT scans in mountain population in regard to (a) different levels in spine (b) age (c) sex (2) to know if there is any significant association between FJA and spinal pain at that corresponding level. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Bilateral Facet joints of 210 participants (age range, 18 to 97 years) who underwent MDCT imaging for reasons other than spinal pain, were graded and statistically analysed with SPSS software in this study. FJA was defined as at least one joint affected by facet joint disease (grade 2). RESULTS: In our study, Seventy two men (68.5%) and eighty four women (80%) had Facet Joint arthritis. The difference between men and women in the prevalence of FJA was not statistically significant (P = 0.058). The increasing age demonstrated a higher prevalence of facet joint arthritis with statistical significance (P = 0.000). In dorsal and lumbar spine region, there was a statistically significant difference in prevalence of FJA according to spinal level. The prevalence of FJA grade 2 in cervical and dorsal spine region was associated with spinal pain in both men (P = 0.000) and women (P = 0.000). However, no statistically significant association was found between FJA grade 2 and spinal pain in lumbar spine region in both males (P = 0.680) and females (P = 0.680) as well as in total population (P = 0.513). CONCLUSIONS: People residing and actually ambulating in the mountain regions and exposed to the terrain have higher prevalence of Facet joint arthritis as compared to general population and this may be an independent risk factor for development of facet joint arthritis. However, a statistically significant relation between FJA and spinal pain exists only in cervical and dorsal spine.

Influential aspects of glacial resource for establishing Kuhl system (gravity flow irrigation) in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya ranges.

The meltwater components play an important role in the hydrological regime of the Hindu Kush, Karakorum and Himalaya (HKH) region, in terms of high demand of water for food and fiber from snow and glacial resource. The communities of Himalayan mountains are facing challenges of food security owing to lack of the resource information for meeting their water requirements. In this study, suitability index approach was adopted to assess glacier resource potential for establishing kuhl irrigation system in HKH ranges of Pakistan. The basis of indexing is glacier accessibility and water yield potential of the glacial resource for irrigation estimated in terms of number and ice reserve of the glaciers. The suitability index was found good for about 1.4% glaciers constituting about 80% of the total ice reserves of the HKH region. Medium suitability constitutes about 36.1% glaciers with 12.6% of the total ice reserves, while low suitability was assessed for about 60% glaciers containing 1.5% ice reserves only. Maximum unit glacial reserve was estimated for Shigar basin, i.e., 1.44 km3, and among HKH ranges, 0.46 km3 for the Karakoram range. A regular monitoring of the glacial resource would prove helpful in assessing vulnerability of this resource to climate change in the high Himalayan region in future.

Composite use of numerical groundwater flow modeling and geoinformatics techniques for monitoring Indus Basin aquifer, Pakistan.

The integration of the Geographic Information System (GIS) with groundwater modeling and satellite remote sensing capabilities has provided an efficient way of analyzing and monitoring groundwater behavior and its associated land conditions. A 3-dimensional finite element model (Feflow) has been used for regional groundwater flow modeling of Upper Chaj Doab in Indus Basin, Pakistan. The approach of using GIS techniques that partially fulfill the data requirements and define the parameters of existing hydrologic models was adopted. The numerical groundwater flow model is developed to configure the groundwater equipotential surface, hydraulic head gradient, and estimation of the groundwater budget of the aquifer. GIS is used for spatial database development, integration with a remote sensing, and numerical groundwater flow modeling capabilities. The thematic layers of soils, land use, hydrology, infrastructure, and climate were developed using GIS. The Arcview GIS software is used as additive tool to develop supportive data for numerical groundwater flow modeling and integration and presentation of image processing and modeling results. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to simulate future changes in piezometric heads from the period 2006 to 2020. Different scenarios were developed to study the impact of extreme climatic conditions (drought/flood) and variable groundwater abstraction on the regional groundwater system. The model results indicated a significant response in watertable due to external influential factors. The developed model provides an effective tool for evaluating better management options for monitoring future groundwater development in the study area.

Implications and concerns of deep-seated disposal of hydrocarbon exploration produced water using three-dimensional contaminant transport model in Bhit Area, Dadu District of Southern Pakistan.

A three-dimensional contaminant transport model has been developed to simulate and monitor the migration of disposal of hydrocarbon exploration produced water in Injection well at 2,100 m depth in the Upper Cretaceous Pab sandstone, Bhit area in Dadu district of Southern Pakistan. The regional stratigraphic and structural geological framework of the area, landform characteristics, meteorological parameters, and hydrogeological milieu have been used in the model to generate the initial simulation of steady-state flow condition in the underlying aquifer's layers. The geometry of the shallow and deep-seated characteristics of the geological formations was obtained from the drilling data, electrical resistivity sounding surveys, and geophysical well-logging information. The modeling process comprised of steady-state simulation and transient simulation of the prolific groundwater system of contamination transport after 1, 10, 30 years of injection. The contaminant transport was evaluated from the bottom of the injection well, and its short- and long-term effects were determined on aquifer system lying in varying hydrogeological and geological conditions.