Risk Assessment Score and Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection Algorithm for Hypertension Among Africans: Models From the SIREN Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a risk-scoring model for hypertension among Africans. METHODS: In this study, 4413 stroke-free controls were used to develop the risk-scoring model for hypertension. Logistic regression models were applied to 13 risk factors. We randomly split the dataset into training and testing data at a ratio of 80:20. Constant and standardized weights were assigned to factors significantly associated with hypertension in the regression model to develop a probability risk score on a scale of 0 to 1 using a logistic regression model. The model accuracy was assessed to estimate the cutoff score for discriminating hypertensives. RESULTS: Mean age was 59.9±13.3 years, 56.0% were hypertensives, and 8 factors, including diabetes, age ≥65 years, higher waist circumference, (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2, lack of formal education, living in urban residence, family history of cardiovascular diseases, and dyslipidemia use were associated with hypertension. Cohen κ was maximal at ≥0.28, and a total probability risk score of ≥0.60 was adopted for both statistical weighting for risk quantification of hypertension in both datasets. The probability risk score presented a good performance-receiver operating characteristic: 64% (95% CI, 61.0-68.0), a sensitivity of 55.1%, specificity of 71.5%, positive predicted value of 70.9%, and negative predicted value of 55.8%, in the test dataset. Similarly, decision tree had a predictive accuracy of 67.7% (95% CI, 66.1-69.3) for the training set and 64.6% (95% CI, 61.0-68.0) for the testing dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The novel risk-scoring model discriminated hypertensives with good accuracy and will be helpful in the early identification of community-based Africans vulnerable to hypertension for its primary prevention.

Determinants of First-Ever Stroke Severity in West Africans: Evidence From the SIREN Study.

Background Baseline stroke severity is probably partly responsible for poor stroke outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is a paucity of information on determinants of stroke severity among indigenous Africans. We sought to identify the factors associated with stroke severity among West Africans in the SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Networks) study. Methods and Results Stroke was diagnosed clinically and confirmed with brain neuroimaging. Severe stroke was defined as a Stroke Levity Scale score of ≤5. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify factors associated with stroke severity at 95% CI and a nominal cutoff of 5% type 1 error. A total of 3660 stroke cases were included. Overall, 50.7%% had severe stroke, including 47.6% of all ischemic strokes and 56.1% of intracerebral hemorrhage. Factors independently associated with severe stroke were meat consumption (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.97 [95% CI, 1.43-2.73]), low vegetable consumption (aOR, 2.45 [95% CI, 1.93-3.12]), and lesion volume, with an aOR of 1.67 (95% CI, 1.03-2.72) for lesion volume of 10 to 30 cm3 and aOR of 3.88 (95% CI, 1.93-7.81) for lesion volume >30 cm3. Severe ischemic stroke was independently associated with total anterior circulation infarction (aOR, 3.1 [95% CI, 1.5-6.9]), posterior circulation infarction (aOR, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.1-4.2]), and partial anterior circulation infarction (aOR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.2-3.3]) compared with lacunar stroke. Increasing age (aOR, 2.6 [95% CI, 1.3-5.2]) and lesion volume >30 cm3 (aOR, 6.2 [95% CI, 2.0-19.3]) were independently associated with severe intracerebral hemorrhage. Conclusions Severe stroke is common among indigenous West Africans, where modifiable dietary factors are independently associated with it. These factors could be targeted to reduce the burden of severe stroke.

Patient-level and system-level determinants of stroke fatality across 16 large hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Every minute, six indigenous Africans develop new strokes. Patient-level and system-level contributors to early stroke fatality in this region are yet to be delineated. We aimed to identify and quantify the contributions of patient-level and system-level determinants of inpatient stroke fatality across 16 hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicentre study involving 16 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults (aged ≥18 years) with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Data on stroke services and resources available at each study site were collected and analysed as system-level factors. A host of demographic and clinical variables of cases were analysed as patient-level factors. A mixed effect log-binomial model including both patient-level and system-level covariates was fitted. Results are presented as adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) with respective 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Overall, 814 (21·8%) of the 3739 patients admitted with stroke died as inpatients: 476 (18·1%) of 2635 with ischaemic stroke and 338 (30·6%) of 1104 with intracerebral haemorrhage. The variability in the odds of stroke fatality that could be attributed to the system-level factors across study sites assessed using model intracluster correlation coefficient was substantial at 7·3% (above a 5% threshold). Stroke units were available at only five of 16 centres. The aRRs of six patient-level factors associated with stroke fatality were: low vegetable consumption, 1·19 (95% CI 1·07-1·33); systolic blood pressure, 1·02 (1·01-1·04) for each 10 mm Hg rise; stroke lesion volume more than 30 cm3, 1·48 (1·22-1·79); National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, 1·20 (1·13-1·26) for each 5-unit rise; elevated intracranial pressure, 1·75 (1·31-2·33); and aspiration pneumonia, 1·79 (1·16-2·77). INTERPRETATION: Studies are needed to assess the efficacy of interventions targeting patient-level factors such as aspiration pneumonia in reducing acute stroke fatality in this region. Policy directives to improve stroke unit access are warranted. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Twi, Yoruba and Hausa translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Determinants of metabolic syndrome and its prognostic implications among stroke patients in Africa: Findings from the Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic implications of metabolic syndrome (METS) among African stroke patients are poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the determinants of METS and its prognostic implications among Africans with newly diagnosed stroke in the SIREN study. METHODS: We included stroke cases (adults aged >18 years with CT/MRI confirmed stroke). The validated tools comprehensively evaluated vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% CIs for the association between METS and risk factors. We also computed the prediction power of the domain of covariates in a sequential manner using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Among 3998 stroke subjects enrolled in the study, 76.8% had METS by at least one of the clinical definitions. Factors associated with METS were age > 50 years (OR- 1.46, CI-1.19-1.80), male gender (OR 4.06, CI- 3.28-5.03), income >100USD (OR1.42, CI-1.17-1.71), stress (OR1.46, CI-1.14-1.87), family history of diabetes mellitus (OR1.38, CI-1.06-1.78), and cardiac disease (OR1.42, CI-1.18-1.65). Stroke severity was higher among those with METS (SLS = 5.8 ± 4.3) compared with those without METS (6.2 ± 4.5) at p = 0.037. METS was associated with higher odds (aOR 1.31, CI-1.08-1.58) of one-month fatality after adjusting for stroke severity, age > 50 years, and average monthly income >100USD. CONCLUSION: METS is very common among African stroke patients and is associated with stroke severity and worse one-month fatality. Lifestyle interventions may prevent METS and attenuate its impact on stroke occurrence and outcomes.

Risk Factor Characterization of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes Among West Africans.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To identify the qualitative and quantitative contributions of conventional risk factors for occurrence of ischemic stroke and its key pathophysiologic subtypes among West Africans. METHODS: The SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with ischemic stroke who were etiologically subtyped using the A-S-C-O-D classification into atherosclerosis, small-vessel occlusion, cardiac pathology, other causes, and dissection. Controls were age- and gender-matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors were performed. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios with 95% CI. RESULTS: There were 2431 ischemic stroke case and stroke-free control pairs with respective mean ages of 62.2±14.0 versus 60.9±13.7 years. There were 1024 (42.1%) small vessel occlusions, 427 (17.6%) large-artery atherosclerosis, 258 (10.6%) cardio-embolic, 3 (0.1%) carotid dissections, and 719 (29.6%) undetermined/other causes. The adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) for the 8 dominant risk factors for ischemic stroke were hypertension, 10.34 (6.91-15.45); dyslipidemia, 5.16 (3.78-7.03); diabetes, 3.44 (2.60-4.56); low green vegetable consumption, 1.89 (1.45-2.46); red meat consumption, 1.89 (1.45-2.46); cardiac disease, 1.88 (1.22-2.90); monthly income $100 or more, 1.72 (1.24-2.39); and psychosocial stress, 1.62 (1.18-2.21). Hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes were confluent factors shared by small-vessel, large-vessel and cardio-embolic subtypes. Stroke cases and stroke-free controls had a mean of 5.3±1.5 versus 3.2±1.0 adverse cardio-metabolic risk factors respectively (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional vascular risk factors demonstrate important differential effect sizes with pathophysiologic, clinical and preventative implications on the occurrence of ischemic stroke among indigenous West Africans.

A Novel Afrocentric Stroke Risk Assessment Score: Models from the Siren Study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke risk can be quantified using risk factors whose effect sizes vary by geography and race. No stroke risk assessment tool exists to estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African. OBJECTIVES: To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for stroke occurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated 3533 radiologically confirmed West African stroke cases paired 1:1 with age-, and sex-matched stroke-free controls in the SIREN study. The 7,066 subjects were randomly split into a training and testing set at the ratio of 85:15. Conditional logistic regression models were constructed by including 17 putative factors linked to stroke occurrence using the training set. Significant risk factors were assigned constant and standardized statistical weights based on regression coefficients (ß) to develop an additive risk scoring system on a scale of 0-100%. Using the testing set, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to obtain a total score to serve as cut-off to discriminate between cases and controls. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at this cut-off. RESULTS: For stroke occurrence, we identified 15 traditional vascular factors. Cohen's kappa for validity was maximal at a total risk score of 56% using both statistical weighting approaches to risk quantification and in both datasets. The risk score had a predictive accuracy of 76% (95%CI: 74-79%), sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 63.0%, PPV of 68.5% and NPV of 76.2% in the test dataset. For ischemic strokes, 12 risk factors had predictive accuracy of 78% (95%CI: 74-81%). For hemorrhagic strokes, 7 factors had a predictive accuracy of 79% (95%CI: 73-84%). CONCLUSIONS: The SIREN models quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans with good accuracy. Prospective studies are needed to validate this instrument for stroke prevention.

Factors associated with hypertension among stroke-free indigenous Africans: Findings from the SIREN study.

Hypertension is one of the most important risk factors for stroke and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) globally. Understanding risk factors for hypertension among individuals with matching characteristics with stroke patients may inform primordial/primary prevention of hypertension and stroke among them. This study identified the risk factors for hypertension among community-dwelling stroke-free population in Ghana and Nigeria. Data for 4267 community-dwelling stroke-free controls subjects in the Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network (SIREN) study in Nigeria and Ghana were used. Participants were comprehensively assessed for sociodemographic, lifestyle and metabolic factors using standard methods. Hypertension was defined as a previous diagnosis by a health professional or use of an anti-hypertensive drug or mean systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of hypertension and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) at p < .05. Overall, 56.7% of the participants were hypertensive with a higher proportion among respondents aged ≥60 years (53.0%). Factors including physical inactivity (aOR: 9.09; 95% CI: 4.03 to 20.53, p < .0001), diabetes (aOR: 2.70; CI: 1.91 to 3.82, p < .0001), being ≥60 years (aOR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.78 to 2.77, p < .0001), and family history of CVD (aOR 2.02; CI: 1.59 to 2.56, p < .0001) were associated with increased aOR of hypertension. Lifestyle factors were associated with hypertension in the current population of community-dwelling stroke-free controls in west Africa. Community-oriented interventions to address sedentary lifestyles may benefit this population and reduce/prevent hypertension and stroke among them.