ABSTRACT
Since 2013, the Brazilian National Bank of Genetic Profiles (BNPG) of the Integrated Network of Genetic Profiles Bank (RIBPG) has been used to aid investigations, identifying who committed a crime based on biological samples found at crime scenes or on victims, which may be substantial evidence in a criminal case. This research evaluates the extent to which the types of genetic profiles and the number of hits influence the number of investigations aided. The study used data from institutions of the RIBPG adopting the period from 2016 to 2020 and organized them in a stacked panel with 98 observations. A regression mediation model was built to estimate the influence of the independent variables "forensic unknown profiles," "profiles of convicted offenders," and "profiles of suspected perpetrators or legal profiles" when mediated by the "hits" variable, influence the increase of the dependent variable "investigations aided," identified as a measure of the effectiveness of the forensic DNA banks. The results showed that the 1% increase in the variables "forensic unknown profiles" and "profiles of suspected perpetrators or legal profiles," mediated by "hits," was significant to produce "investigations aided." As for the variable "profiles of convicted offenders," there was no evidence that it contributed significantly to the increase in "hits" and "investigations aided." The study demonstrated that the increase in "forensic unknown profiles" by 126 and "profiles of suspected perpetrators or legal profiles" by 14 led to 12 "hits" in the RIBPG, offering support to 4 cases. The variable "profiles of convicted offenders" did not show significant results in terms of "hits" and "investigations aided."
