Effectiveness of Incentives for Improving Diabetes-Related Health Indicators in Chronic Disease Lifestyle Modification Programs: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the effectiveness of providing incentives to participants in lifestyle modification programs to improve diabetes-related health indicators: body weight, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, cholesterol, and hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C). We also examined the potential effect of 4 different incentive domains (ie, type, monetary value, attainment certainty, and schedule) on those indicators. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Cochrane Library to identify relevant studies published from January 2008 through August 2021. We used a random-effects model to pool study results and examine between-study heterogeneity by using the I2 statistic and the Cochran Q test. We also conducted moderator analyses by using a mixed-effects model to examine differences between subgroups of incentive domains (eg, incentive type [cash vs other types]). RESULTS: Our search yielded 10,965 articles, of which 19 randomized controlled trials met our selection criteria. The random-effects model revealed that, relative to the control group, the incentive group had significant reductions in weight (-1.85kg; 95% CI, -2.40 to -1.29; P < .001), BMI (-0.47kg/m2; 95% CI, -0.71 to -0.22; P < .001), and both systolic blood pressure (-2.59 mm HG; 95% CI, -4.98 to -0.20; P = .03) and diastolic blood pressure (-2.62 mm Hg; 95% CI, -4.61 to -0.64; P = .01). A reduction in cholesterol level was noted but was not significant (-2.81 mg/dL; 95% CI, -8.89 to -3.28; P = .37). One study found a significant reduction in hemoglobin A1c (-0.17%; 95% CI, -0.30% to -0.05%; P < .05). The moderator analyses showed that the incentive effect did not vary significantly between the subgroups of the incentive domains, except on weight loss for the attainment certainty domain, suggesting that a variety of incentive subgroups could be equally useful. CONCLUSION: Providing incentives in lifestyle modification programs is a promising strategy to decrease weight, BMI, and blood pressure.

Iterative guided machine learning-assisted systematic literature reviews: a diabetes case study.

BACKGROUND: Systematic Reviews (SR), studies of studies, use a formal process to evaluate the quality of scientific literature and determine ensuing effectiveness from qualifying articles to establish consensus findings around a hypothesis. Their value is increasing as the conduct and publication of research and evaluation has expanded and the process of identifying key insights becomes more time consuming. Text analytics and machine learning (ML) techniques may help overcome this problem of scale while still maintaining the level of rigor expected of SRs. METHODS: In this article, we discuss an approach that uses existing examples of SRs to build and test a method for assisting the SR title and abstract pre-screening by reducing the initial pool of potential articles down to articles that meet inclusion criteria. Our approach differs from previous approaches to using ML as a SR tool in that it incorporates ML configurations guided by previously conducted SRs, and human confirmation on ML predictions of relevant articles during multiple iterative reviews on smaller tranches of citations. We applied the tailored method to a new SR review effort to validate performance. RESULTS: The case study test of the approach proved a sensitivity (recall) in finding relevant articles during down selection that may rival many traditional processes and show ability to overcome most type II errors. The study achieved a sensitivity of 99.5% (213 out of 214) of total relevant articles while only conducting a human review of 31% of total articles available for review. CONCLUSIONS: We believe this iterative method can help overcome bias in initial ML model training by having humans reinforce ML models with new and relevant information, and is an applied step towards transfer learning for ML in SR.

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990-2015.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990-2015. METHODOLOGY: Combining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Results suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSIONS: Annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of dog rabies vaccination programs in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Dog rabies annually causes 24,000-70,000 deaths globally. We built a spreadsheet tool, RabiesEcon, to aid public health officials to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dog rabies vaccination programs in East Africa. METHODS: RabiesEcon uses a mathematical model of dog-dog and dog-human rabies transmission to estimate dog rabies cases averted, the cost per human rabies death averted and cost per year of life gained (YLG) due to dog vaccination programs (US 2015 dollars). We used an East African human population of 1 million (approximately 2/3 living in urban setting, 1/3 rural). We considered, using data from the literature, three vaccination options; no vaccination, annual vaccination of 50% of dogs and 20% of dogs vaccinated semi-annually. We assessed 2 transmission scenarios: low (1.2 dogs infected per infectious dog) and high (1.7 dogs infected). We also examined the impact of annually vaccinating 70% of all dogs (World Health Organization recommendation for dog rabies elimination). RESULTS: Without dog vaccination, over 10 years there would a total of be approximately 44,000-65,000 rabid dogs and 2,100-2,900 human deaths. Annually vaccinating 50% of dogs results in 10-year reductions of 97% and 75% in rabid dogs (low and high transmissions scenarios, respectively), approximately 2,000-1,600 human deaths averted, and an undiscounted cost-effectiveness of $451-$385 per life saved. Semi-annual vaccination of 20% of dogs results in in 10-year reductions of 94% and 78% in rabid dogs, and approximately 2,000-1,900 human deaths averted, and cost $404-$305 per life saved. In the low transmission scenario, vaccinating either 50% or 70% of dogs eliminated dog rabies. Results were most sensitive to dog birth rate and the initial rate of dog-to-dog transmission (Ro). CONCLUSIONS: Dog rabies vaccination programs can control, and potentially eliminate, dog rabies. The frequency and coverage of vaccination programs, along with the level of dog rabies transmission, can affect the cost-effectiveness of such programs. RabiesEcon can aid both the planning and assessment of dog rabies vaccination programs.

Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of a Novel Integrated Bite Case Management Program for the Control of Human Rabies, Haiti 2014-2015.

AbstractHaiti has the highest burden of rabies in the Western hemisphere, with 130 estimated annual deaths. We present the cost-effectiveness evaluation of an integrated bite case management program combining community bite investigations and passive animal rabies surveillance, using a governmental perspective. The Haiti Animal Rabies Surveillance Program (HARSP) was first implemented in three communes of the West Department, Haiti. Our evaluation encompassed all individuals exposed to rabies in the study area (N = 2,289) in 2014-2015. Costs (2014 U.S. dollars) included diagnostic laboratory development, training of surveillance officers, operational costs, and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). We used estimated deaths averted and years of life gained (YLG) from prevented rabies as health outcomes. HARSP had higher overall costs (range: $39,568-$80,290) than the no-bite-case-management (NBCM) scenario ($15,988-$26,976), partly from an increased number of bite victims receiving PEP. But HARSP had better health outcomes than NBCM, with estimated 11 additional annual averted deaths in 2014 and nine in 2015, and 654 additional YLG in 2014 and 535 in 2015. Overall, HARSP was more cost-effective (US$ per death averted) than NBCM (2014, HARSP: $2,891-$4,735, NBCM: $5,980-$8,453; 2015, HARSP: $3,534-$7,171, NBCM: $7,298-$12,284). HARSP offers an effective human rabies prevention solution for countries transitioning from reactive to preventive strategies, such as comprehensive dog vaccination.

Modeling in Real Time During the Ebola Response.

To aid decision-making during CDC's response to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic in West Africa, CDC activated a Modeling Task Force to generate estimates on various topics related to the response in West Africa and the risk for importation of cases into the United States. Analysis of eight Ebola response modeling projects conducted during August 2014-July 2015 provided insight into the types of questions addressed by modeling, the impact of the estimates generated, and the difficulties encountered during the modeling. This time frame was selected to cover the three phases of the West African epidemic curve. Questions posed to the Modeling Task Force changed as the epidemic progressed. Initially, the task force was asked to estimate the number of cases that might occur if no interventions were implemented compared with cases that might occur if interventions were implemented; however, at the peak of the epidemic, the focus shifted to estimating resource needs for Ebola treatment units. Then, as the epidemic decelerated, requests for modeling changed to generating estimates of the potential number of sexually transmitted Ebola cases. Modeling to provide information for decision-making during the CDC Ebola response involved limited data, a short turnaround time, and difficulty communicating the modeling process, including assumptions and interpretation of results. Despite these challenges, modeling yielded estimates and projections that public health officials used to make key decisions regarding response strategy and resources required. The impact of modeling during the Ebola response demonstrates the usefulness of modeling in future responses, particularly in the early stages and when data are scarce. Future modeling can be enhanced by planning ahead for data needs and data sharing, and by open communication among modelers, scientists, and others to ensure that modeling and its limitations are more clearly understood. The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S. and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html).

Cost-effectiveness of preventing dental caries and full mouth dental reconstructions among Alaska Native children in the Yukon-Kuskokwim delta region of Alaska.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of five specific dental interventions to help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet-based tool, from the healthcare payer perspective, to evaluate the cost effectiveness of specific dental interventions that are currently used among Alaska Native children (6-60 months). Interventions included: water fluoridation, dental sealants, fluoride varnish, tooth brushing with fluoride toothpaste, and conducting initial dental exams on children <18 months of age. We calculated the cost-effectiveness ratio of implementing the proposed interventions to reduce the number of carious teeth and full mouth dental reconstructions (FMDRs) over 10 years. RESULTS: A total of 322 children received caries treatments completed by a dental provider in the dental chair, while 161 children received FMDRs completed by a dental surgeon in an operating room. The average cost of treating dental caries in the dental chair was $1,467 (∼258,000 per year); while the cost of treating FMDRs was $9,349 (∼1.5 million per year). All interventions were shown to prevent caries and FMDRs; however tooth brushing prevented the greatest number of caries at minimum and maximum effectiveness with 1,433 and 1,910, respectively. Tooth brushing also prevented the greatest number of FMDRs (159 and 211) at minimum and maximum effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: All of the dental interventions evaluated were shown to produce cost savings. However, the level of that cost saving is dependent on the intervention chosen.

Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic--Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.

The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for annual influenza vaccination among children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces in China.

BACKGROUND: To support policy making, we developed an initial model to assess the cost-effectiveness of potential strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates among children in China. METHODS: We studied on children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces (Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan), with a health care system perspective. We used data from 2005/6 to 2010/11, excluding 2009/10. Costs are reported in 2010 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: In comparison with no vaccination, the mean (range) of Medically Attended Cases averted by the current self-payment policy for the two age groups (6 to 59 months and 60 months to 14 years) was 1,465 (23 ∼ 11,132) and 792 (36 ∼ 4,247), and the cost effectiveness ratios were $ 0 (-11-51) and $ 37 (6-125) per case adverted, respectively. In comparison with the current policy, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of alternative strategies, OPTION One-reminder and OPTION Two-comprehensive package, decreased as vaccination rate increased. The ICER for children aged 6 to 59 months was lower than that for children aged 60 months to 14 years. CONCLUSIONS: The model is a useful tool in identifying elements for evaluating vaccination strategies. However, more data are needed to produce more accurate cost-effectiveness estimates of potential vaccination policies.

Effects of vaccine program against pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus, United States, 2009-2010.

In April 2009, the United States began a response to the emergence of a pandemic influenza virus strain: A(H1N1)pdm09. Vaccination began in October 2009. By using US surveillance data (April 12, 2009-April 10, 2010) and vaccine coverage estimates (October 3, 2009-April 18, 2010), we estimated that the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus vaccination program prevented 700,000-1,500,000 clinical cases, 4,000-10,000 hospitalizations, and 200-500 deaths. We found that the national health effects were greatly influenced by the timing of vaccine administration and the effectiveness of the vaccine. We estimated that recommendations for priority vaccination of targeted priority groups were not inferior to other vaccination prioritization strategies. These results emphasize the need for relevant surveillance data to facilitate a rapid evaluation of vaccine recommendations and effects.

Estimating effect of antiviral drug use during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, United States.

From April 2009 through March 2010, during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, ≈8.2 million prescriptions for influenza neuraminidase-inhibiting antiviral drugs were filled in the United States. We estimated the number of hospitalizations likely averted due to use of these antiviral medications. After adjusting for prescriptions that were used for prophylaxis and personal stockpiles, as well as for patients who did not complete their drug regimen, we estimated the filled prescriptions prevented ≈8,400-12,600 hospitalizations (on the basis of median values). Approximately 60% of these prevented hospitalizations were among adults 18-64 years of age, with the remainder almost equally divided between children 0-17 years of age and adults >65 years of age. Public health officials should consider these estimates an indication of success of treating patients during the 2009 pandemic and a warning of the need for renewed planning to cope with the next pandemic.

Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010).

To calculate the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in the United States, we extrapolated from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations across the entire United States, and then corrected for underreporting. From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001. In our study, adults 65 years of age or older were found to have rates of hospitalization and death that were up to 75% and 81%, respectively, lower than seasonal influenza. These results confirm the necessity of a concerted public health response to pH1N1.