Active European warzone impacts raptor migration.

Human conflicts can have impacts on wildlife, from direct mortality and environmental damage to the displacement of people, changing institutional dynamics and altering economies.1,2,3 Extreme anthropogenic disturbances related to conflict may act as a barrier to migrating birds and increase the energetic costs of migration.4 On February 24th, 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, with targeted attacks on Kyiv and the eastern regions.5 By March 3rd, when the first of 19 tagged Greater Spotted Eagles entered Ukraine on migration, the conflict had spread to most major cities, including parts of western Ukraine.6 We quantified how conflict impacted the migratory behavior of this species using GPS tracks and conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project7,8 in a quasi-experimental before-after control-impact design, accounting for meteorological conditions. Migrating eagles were exposed to conflict events along their migration through Ukraine and exhibited different behavior compared with previous years, using fewer stopover sites and making large route deviations. This delayed their arrival to the breeding grounds and likely increased the energetic cost of migration, with sublethal fitness effects. Our findings provide a rare window into how human conflicts affect animal behavior and highlight the potential impacts of exposure to conflict events or other extreme anthropogenic disturbances on wildlife.

Combining remote sensing and tracking data to quantify species' cumulative exposure to anthropogenic change.

Identifying when and where organisms are exposed to anthropogenic change is crucial for diagnosing the drivers of biodiversity declines and implementing effective conservation measures. Accurately measuring individual-scale exposure to anthropogenic impacts across the annual cycle as they move across continents requires an approach that is both spatially and temporally explicit-now achievable through recent parallel advances in remote-sensing and individual tracking technologies. We combined 10 years of tracking data for a long-distance migrant, (common cuckoo, Cuculus canorus), with multi-dimensional remote-sensed spatial datasets encompassing thirteen relevant anthropogenic impacts (including infrastructure, hunting, habitat change, and climate change), to quantify mean hourly and total accumulated exposure of tracked individuals to anthropogenic change across each stage of the annual cycle. Although mean hourly exposure to anthropogenic change was greatest in the breeding stage, accumulated exposure to changes associated with direct mortality risks (e.g., built infrastructure) and with climate were greatest during the wintering stage, which comprised 63% of the annual cycle on average for tracked individuals. Exposure to anthropogenic change varied considerably within and between migratory flyways, but there were no clear between-flyway differences in overall exposure during migration stages. However, more easterly autumn migratory routes were significantly associated with lower subsequent exposure to anthropogenic impacts in the winter stage. Cumulative change exposure was not significantly associated with recent local-scale population trends in the breeding range, possibly because cuckoos from shared breeding areas may follow divergent migration routes and therefore encounter very different risk landscapes. Our study highlights the potential for the integration of tracking data and high-resolution remote sensing to generate valuable and detailed new insights into the impacts of environmental change on wild species.

Spring arrival of the common cuckoo at breeding grounds is strongly determined by environmental conditions in tropical Africa.

Failure to adapt migration timing to changes in environmental conditions along migration routes and at breeding locations can result in mismatches across trophic levels, as occurs between the brood parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus and its hosts. Using satellite tracking data from 87 male cuckoos across 11 years, we evaluate why the cuckoo has not advanced its arrival to the UK. Across years, breeding ground arrival was primarily determined by timing of departure from stopover in West Africa before northward crossing of the Sahara. Together with high population synchrony and low apparent endogenous control of this event, this suggests that a seasonal ecological constraint operating here limits overall variation in breeding grounds arrival, although this event was itself influenced by carry-over from timing of arrival into tropical Africa. Between-year variation within individuals was, in contrast, mostly determined by northward migration through Europe, probably due to weather conditions. We find evidence of increased mortality risk for (a) early birds following migration periods positively impacting breeding grounds arrival, and (b) late birds, possibly suffering energy limitation, after departure from the breeding grounds. These results help identify areas where demands of responding to global change can potentially be alleviated by improving stopover quality.

Landscape fires disproportionally affect high conservation value temperate peatlands, meadows, and deciduous forests, but only under low moisture conditions.

Landscape fires are a natural component of the Earth System. However, they are of growing global concern due to climate change exacerbating their multiple impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, carbon storage, human health, economies, and wider society. Temperate regions are predicted to be at greatest risk of increasing fire activity due to climate change, where fires can seriously impact important ecosystems for biodiversity and carbon storage, such as peatlands and forests. There is insufficient literature on the background prevalence, distribution, and drivers of fires in these regions, especially within Europe, to assess and mitigate their risks. Using a global database of fire patches based on the MODIS FireCCI51 product, we address this knowledge gap by quantifying the current prevalence and size of fires in Polesia, a 150,000 km2 area comprising a mosaic of peatland, forest, and agricultural habitats in northern Ukraine and southern Belarus. Between 2001 and 2019, fires burned 31,062 km2 of land, and were most frequent in spring and autumn. Although most fires started in agricultural land, fires disproportionately affected natural and semi-natural land cover types, particularly in protected areas. Over one fifth of protected land burned. Coniferous forests were the most common land cover type in protected areas, but fires mostly occurred in meadows, open peatlands (especially fen and transition mires), and native deciduous forests. These land cover types were highly susceptible to fires under low soil moisture conditions, but the risk of fire was low under average or higher soil moisture conditions. Restoring and maintaining natural hydrological regimes could be an effective nature-based solution to increase the resilience of fire-vulnerable ecosystems and support global biodiversity and carbon storage commitments under the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change and Convention on Biological Diversity.

Timing is critical: consequences of asynchronous migration for the performance and destination of a long-distance migrant.

BACKGROUND: Migration phenology is shifting for many long-distance migrants due to global climate change, however the timing and duration of migration may influence the environmental conditions individuals encounter, with potential fitness consequences. Species with asynchronous migrations, i.e., with variability in migration timing, provide an excellent opportunity to investigate how of the conditions individuals experience during migration can vary and affect the migratory performance, route, and destination of migrants. METHODS: Here, we use GPS tracking and accelerometer data to examine if timing of autumn migration influences the migratory performance (duration, distance, route straightness, energy expenditure) and migration destinations of a long-distance, asynchronous, migrant, the white stork (Ciconia ciconia). We also compare the weather conditions (wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height) encountered on migration and examine the influence of wind direction on storks' flight directions. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2020, we tracked 172 white storks and obtained 75 complete migrations from the breeding grounds in Europe to the sub-Saharan wintering areas. Autumn migration season spanned over a 3-month period (July-October) and arrival destinations covered a broad area of the Sahel, 2450 km apart, from Senegal to Niger. We found that timing of migration influenced both the performance and conditions individuals experienced: later storks spent fewer days on migration, adopted shorter and more direct routes in the Sahara Desert and consumed more energy when flying, as they were exposed to less supportive weather conditions. In the Desert, storks' flight directions were significantly influenced by wind direction, with later individuals facing stronger easterly winds (i.e., winds blowing to the west), hence being more likely to end their migration in western areas of the Sahel region. Contrastingly, early storks encountered more supportive weather conditions, spent less energy on migration and were exposed to westerly winds, thus being more likely to end migration in eastern Sahel. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the timing of migration influences the environmental conditions individuals face, the energetic costs of migration, and the wintering destinations, where birds may be exposed to different environmental conditions and distinct threats. These findings highlight that on-going changes in migration phenology, due to environmental change, may have critical fitness consequences for long-distance soaring migrants.

Performance of GPS/GPRS tracking devices improves with increased fix interval and is not affected by animal deployment.

The use of GPS tracking technologies has revolutionized the study of animal movement providing unprecedentedly detailed information. The characterization of GPS accuracy and precision under different conditions is essential to correctly identify the spatial and temporal resolution at which studies can be conducted. Here, we examined the influence of fix acquisition interval and device deployment on the performance of a new GPS/GSM solar powered device. Horizontal and vertical accuracy and precision of locations were obtained under different GPS fix acquisition intervals (1min, 20 min and 60 min) in a stationary test. The test devices were deployed on pre-fledgling white storks (Ciconia ciconia) and we quantified accuracy and precision after deployment while controlling for bias caused by variation in habitat, topography, and animal movement. We also assessed the performance of GPS-Error, a metric provided by the device, at identifying inaccurate locations (> 10 m). Average horizontal accuracy varied between 3.4 to 6.5 m, and vertical accuracy varied between 4.9 to 9.7 m, in high (1 min) and low frequency (60 min) GPS fix intervals. These values were similar after the deployment on white storks. Over 84% of GPS horizontal positions and 71% of vertical positions had less than 10m error in accuracy. Removing 3% of data with highest GPS-Error eliminated over 99% of inaccurate positions in high GPS frequency intervals, but this metric was not effective in the low frequency intervals. We confirmed the suitability of these devices for studies requiring horizontal and vertical accuracies of 5-10m. For higher accuracy data, intensive GPS fix intervals should be used, but this requires more sophisticated battery management, or larger batteries and devices.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2022.

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.

Carryover effects of long-distance avian migration are weaker than effects of breeding environment in a partially migratory bird.

Migration may expose individuals to a wide range of increasing anthropogenic threats. In addition to direct mortality effects, this exposure may influence post-migratory reproductive fitness. Partial migration-where a population comprises migrants and residents-represents a powerful opportunity to explore carryover effects of migration. Studies of partial migration in birds typically examine short-distance systems; here we studied an unusual system where residents breed in mixed colonies alongside long-distance trans-Saharan migrants (lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) in Spain). Combining geolocator data, stable isotope analysis and resighting data, we examined the effects of this stark difference in migratory strategy on body condition, breeding phenology and breeding success. We monitored four colonies in two regions of southern Spain for five consecutive years (2014-2018), yielding 1962 captures, determining migratory strategy for 141 adult bird-years. Despite a 3000-km difference in distance travelled, we find no effect of strategy on breeding parameters. We find weak evidence for a short-term negative carryover effect of migration on body condition, but this was only apparent in the breeding region with lower primary productivity. Our results indicate that carryover effects of even highly divergent migratory strategies may be minimal relative to effects of conditions experienced on breeding grounds.

A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues.

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.

Population decline is linked to migration route in the Common Cuckoo.

Migratory species are in rapid decline globally. Although most mortality in long-distance migrant birds is thought to occur during migration, evidence of conditions on migration affecting breeding population sizes has been completely lacking. We addressed this by tracking 42 male Common Cuckoos from the rapidly declining UK population during 56 autumn migrations in 2011-14. Uniquely, the birds use two distinct routes to reach the same wintering grounds, allowing assessment of survival during migration independently of origin and destination. Mortality up to completion of the Sahara crossing (the major ecological barrier encountered in both routes) is higher for birds using the shorter route. The proportion of birds using this route strongly correlates with population decline across nine local breeding populations. Knowledge of variability in migratory behaviour and performance linked to robust population change data may therefore be necessary to understand population declines of migratory species and efficiently target conservation resources.

Predictive Modelling to Identify Near-Shore, Fine-Scale Seabird Distributions during the Breeding Season.

During the breeding season seabirds are constrained to coastal areas and are restricted in their movements, spending much of their time in near-shore waters either loafing or foraging. However, in using these areas they may be threatened by anthropogenic activities such as fishing, watersports and coastal developments including marine renewable energy installations. Although many studies describe large scale interactions between seabirds and the environment, the drivers behind near-shore, fine-scale distributions are not well understood. For example, Alderney is an important breeding ground for many species of seabird and has a diversity of human uses of the marine environment, thus providing an ideal location to investigate the near-shore fine-scale interactions between seabirds and the environment. We used vantage point observations of seabird distribution, collected during the 2013 breeding season in order to identify and quantify some of the environmental variables affecting the near-shore, fine-scale distribution of seabirds in Alderney's coastal waters. We validate the models with observation data collected in 2014 and show that water depth, distance to the intertidal zone, and distance to the nearest seabird nest are key predictors in the distribution of Alderney's seabirds. AUC values for each species suggest that these models perform well, although the model for shags performed better than those for auks and gulls. While further unexplained underlying localised variation in the environmental conditions will undoubtedly effect the fine-scale distribution of seabirds in near-shore waters we demonstrate the potential of this approach in marine planning and decision making.

Are white storks addicted to junk food? Impacts of landfill use on the movement and behaviour of resident white storks (Ciconia ciconia) from a partially migratory population.

BACKGROUND: The migratory patterns of animals are changing in response to global environmental change with many species forming resident populations in areas where they were once migratory. The white stork (Ciconia ciconia) was wholly migratory in Europe but recently guaranteed, year-round food from landfill sites has facilitated the establishment of resident populations in Iberia. In this study 17 resident white storks were fitted with GPS/GSM data loggers (including accelerometer) and tracked for 9.1 ± 3.7 months to quantify the extent and consistency of landfill attendance by individuals during the non-breeding and breeding seasons and to assess the influence of landfill use on daily distances travelled, percentage of GPS fixes spent foraging and non-landfill foraging ranges. RESULTS: Resident white storks used landfill more during non-breeding (20.1 % ± 2.3 of foraging GPS fixes) than during breeding (14.9 % ± 2.2). Landfill attendance declined with increasing distance between nest and landfill in both seasons. During non-breeding a large percentage of GPS fixes occurred on the nest throughout the day (27 % ± 3.0 of fixes) in the majority of tagged storks. This study provides first confirmation of year-round nest use by resident white storks. The percentage of GPS fixes on the nest was not influenced by the distance between nest and the landfill site. Storks travelled up to 48.2 km to visit landfills during non-breeding and a maximum of 28.1 km during breeding, notably further than previous estimates. Storks nesting close to landfill sites used landfill more and had smaller foraging ranges in non-landfill habitat indicating higher reliance on landfill. The majority of non-landfill foraging occurred around the nest and long distance trips were made specifically to visit landfill. CONCLUSIONS: The continuous availability of food resources on landfill has facilitated year-round nest use in white storks and is influencing their home ranges and movement behaviour. White storks rely on landfill sites for foraging especially during the non-breeding season when other food resources are scarcer and this artificial food supplementation probably facilitated the establishment of resident populations. The closure of landfills, as required by EU Landfill Directives, will likely cause dramatic impacts on white stork populations.

Can REDD+ help the conservation of restricted-range island species? Insights from the endemism hotspot of São Tomé.

REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through "Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation". Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe) as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species.

Conserving the birds of Uganda's banana-coffee arc: land sparing and land sharing compared.

Reconciling the aims of feeding an ever more demanding human population and conserving biodiversity is a difficult challenge. Here, we explore potential solutions by assessing whether land sparing (farming for high yield, potentially enabling the protection of non-farmland habitat), land sharing (lower yielding farming with more biodiversity within farmland) or a mixed strategy would result in better bird conservation outcomes for a specified level of agricultural production. We surveyed forest and farmland study areas in southern Uganda, measuring the population density of 256 bird species and agricultural yield: food energy and gross income. Parametric non-linear functions relating density to yield were fitted. Species were identified as "winners" (total population size always at least as great with agriculture present as without it) or "losers" (total population sometimes or always reduced with agriculture present) for a range of targets for total agricultural production. For each target we determined whether each species would be predicted to have a higher total population with land sparing, land sharing or with any intermediate level of sparing at an intermediate yield. We found that most species were expected to have their highest total populations with land sparing, particularly loser species and species with small global range sizes. Hence, more species would benefit from high-yield farming if used as part of a strategy to reduce forest loss than from low-yield farming and land sharing, as has been found in Ghana and India in a previous study. We caution against advocacy for high-yield farming alone as a means to deliver land sparing if it is done without strong protection for natural habitats, other ecosystem services and social welfare. Instead, we suggest that conservationists explore how conservation and agricultural policies can be better integrated to deliver land sparing by, for example, combining land-use planning and agronomic support for small farmers.

Population-scale drivers of individual arrival times in migratory birds.

1. In migratory species, early arrival on the breeding grounds can often enhance breeding success. Timing of spring migration is therefore a key process that is likely to be influenced both by factors specific to individuals, such as the quality of winter and breeding locations and the distance between them, and by annual variation in weather conditions before and during migration. 2. The Icelandic black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa islandica population is currently increasing and, throughout Iceland, is expanding into poorer quality breeding areas. Using a unique data set of arrival times in Iceland in different years for individuals of known breeding and wintering locations, we show that individuals breeding in lower quality, recently occupied and colder areas arrive later than those from traditionally occupied areas. The population is also expanding into new wintering areas, and males from traditionally occupied winter sites also arrive earlier than those occupying novel sites. 3. Annual variation in timing of migration of individuals is influenced by large-scale weather systems (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but between-individual variation is a stronger predictor of arrival time than the NAO. Distance between winter and breeding sites does not influence arrival times. 4. Annual variation in timing of migration is therefore influenced by climatic factors, but the pattern of individual arrival is primarily related to breeding and winter habitat quality. These habitat effects on arrival patterns are likely to operate through variation in individual condition and local-scale density-dependent processes. Timing of migration thus appears to be a key component of the intricate relationship between wintering and breeding grounds in this migratory system.

Rapid population decline in red knots: fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay.

Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego, which undertakes marathon 30,000 km hemispheric migrations annually. In spring, migrant birds forage voraciously on horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay in the eastern USA before departing to breed in Arctic polar deserts. From 1997 to 2002 an increasing proportion of knots failed to reach threshold departure masses of 180-200 g, possibly because of later arrival in the Bay and food shortage from concurrent over-harvesting of crabs. Reduced nutrient storage, especially in late-arriving birds, possibly combined with reduced sizes of intestine and liver during refuelling, had severe fitness consequences for adult survival and recruitment of young in 2000-2002. From 1997 to 2002 known survivors in Delaware Bay were heavier at initial capture than birds never seen again, annual survival of adults decreased by 37% between May 2000 and May 2001, and the number of second-year birds in wintering flocks declined by 47%. Population size in Tierra del Fuego declined alarmingly from 51,000 to 27,000 in 2000-2002, seriously threatening the viability of this subspecies. Demographic modelling predicts imminent endangerment and an increased risk of extinction of the subspecies without urgent risk-averse management.