Geospatial Analyses of Recent Household Surveys to Assess Changes in the Distribution of Zero-Dose Children and Their Associated Factors before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria.

The persistence of geographic inequities in vaccination coverage often evidences the presence of zero-dose and missed communities and their vulnerabilities to vaccine-preventable diseases. These inequities were exacerbated in many places during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, due to severe disruptions to vaccination services. Understanding changes in zero-dose prevalence and its associated risk factors in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic is, therefore, critical to designing effective strategies to reach vulnerable populations. Using data from nationally representative household surveys conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2018, and during the pandemic, in 2021, in Nigeria, we fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to map the distribution of three vaccination coverage indicators: receipt of the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP1), the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1), and any of the four basic vaccines (bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG), oral polio vaccine (OPV0), DTP1, and MCV1), and the corresponding zero-dose estimates independently at a 1 × 1 km resolution and the district level during both time periods. We also explored changes in the factors associated with non-vaccination at the national and regional levels using multilevel logistic regression models. Our results revealed no increases in zero-dose prevalence due to the pandemic at the national level, although considerable increases were observed in a few districts. We found substantial subnational heterogeneities in vaccination coverage and zero-dose prevalence both before and during the pandemic, showing broadly similar patterns in both time periods. Areas with relatively higher zero-dose prevalence occurred mostly in the north and a few places in the south in both time periods. We also found consistent areas of low coverage and high zero-dose prevalence using all three zero-dose indicators, revealing the areas in greatest need. At the national level, risk factors related to socioeconomic/demographic status (e.g., maternal education), maternal access to and utilization of health services, and remoteness were strongly associated with the odds of being zero dose in both time periods, while those related to communication were mostly relevant before the pandemic. These associations were also supported at the regional level, but we additionally identified risk factors specific to zero-dose children in each region; for example, communication and cross-border migration in the northwest. Our findings can help guide tailored strategies to reduce zero-dose prevalence and boost coverage levels in Nigeria.

Understanding the policy environment for immunization supply chains: Lessons learned from landscape analyses in Uganda and Senegal.

As immunization programs around the world undergo rapid change and expansion, supply chain and logistics systems have become strained, making it increasingly challenging for national public health systems to provide reliable, safe, and efficient access to vaccines. Governments and immunization partners have been aware of this problem for several years, and in 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the Effective Vaccine Management (EVM) process to help countries identify shortcomings in their immunization supply chains and develop plans for systematic improvement. EVM improvement plans now exist in all Gavi-eligible countries plus many middle- and upper-income countries; however, implementation has been slow and in many cases fraught with financial, managerial, structural, and political roadblocks. Recognizing that significant change of any kind requires a supportive policy environment and strong leadership, PATH began working in Uganda and Senegal to landscape the policy environment around immunization and identify relevant policies, administrative and technical roles and responsibilities, and other issues that may be affecting the supply chain for immunization. The policy landscape assessments included a desk review and a series of structured, in-depth interviews with key international, national, and local stakeholders. The findings highlighted a number of critical issues and challenges in both countries that may be preventing supply chains from functioning optimally. These challenges include a need for better coordination and planning between immunization programs and supply chain managers; the need for sufficient, timely and reliable financing for all aspects of immunization programs; the need for high-level managers trained in immunization supply chain management; and an urgent need for better, more timely data for decision-making. Overcoming these challenges will require the involvement of high-level political actors-including ministers of health and finance, parliamentarians, and other officials who have the ability to approve and influence policy, personnel, and structural changes; ensure work plans are backed with adequate resources for implementation; and hold program managers accountable for achieving agreed indicators.

Root cause analysis underscores the importance of understanding, addressing, and communicating cold chain equipment failures to improve equipment performance.

Vaccine cold chain equipment (CCE) in developing countries is often exposed to harsh environmental conditions, such as extreme temperatures and humidity, and is subject to many additional challenges, including intermittent power supply, insufficient maintenance capacity, and a scarcity of replacement parts. Together, these challenges lead to high failure rates for refrigerators, potentially damaging vaccines and adversely affecting immunization coverage. Providing a sustainable solution for improving CCE performance requires an understanding of the root causes of failure. Project teams conducted small-scale studies to determine the root causes of CCE failure in selected locations in Uganda and Mozambique. The evaluations covered 59 failed refrigerators and freezers in Uganda and 27 refrigerators in Mozambique. In Uganda, the vast majority of failures were due to a cooling unit fault in one widely used refrigerator model. In Mozambique, 11 of the 27 problems were attributable to solar refrigerators with batteries that were unable to hold a charge, and another eight problems were associated with a need to adjust thermostat settings. The studies showed that tracking and evaluation of equipment performance and failure can yield important, actionable information for a range of stakeholders, including local CCE technicians, the ministry of health, equipment manufacturers, and international partners such as the United Nations Children's Fund, World Health Organization, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Collaborative efforts to systematically collect and communicate data on CCE performance and causes of failure will help to improve the efficiency and reach of immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries.