Long-term, landscape-level assessment of aquatic pesticide exposure to identify amphibian ontological traits affecting vulnerability.

Amphibians worldwide are threatened by habitat loss, some of which is driven by a changing climate, as well as exposure to pesticides, among other causes. The timing and duration of the larval development phase vary between species, thereby influencing the relative impacts of stochastic hydroregime conditions as well as potential aquatic pesticide exposure. We describe the stages of breeding through metamorphosis for eight amphibian species, based on optimal hydroregime conditions, and use a model of pesticide fate and exposure representative of central Florida citrus groves to simulate hydrodynamics based on observed weather data over a 54-year period. Using the Pesticide in Water Calculator and Plant Assessment Tool, we estimated daily wetland depth and pyraclostrobin exposure, with label-recommended application quantities. Species' timing and duration of larval development determined the number of years of suitable hydroregime for breeding and the likelihood of exposure to peak aquatic concentrations of pyraclostrobin. Although the timing of pesticide application determined the number of surviving larvae, density-dependent constraints of wetland hydroregime also affected larval survival across species and seasons. Further defining categorical amphibian life history types and habitat requirements supports the development of screening-level assessments by incorporating environmental stochasticity at the appropriate temporal resolution. Subsequent refinement of these screening-level risk assessment strategies to include spatially explicit landscape data along with terrestrial exposure estimates would offer additional insights into species vulnerability to pesticide exposure throughout the life cycle. Computational simulation of ecologically relevant exposure scenarios, such as these, offers a more realistic interpretation of differential agrichemical risk among species based on their phenology and habits and provides a more situation-specific risk assessment perspective for threatened species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-10. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Survey of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in surface water collected in Pensacola, FL.

As the persistence of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) become a global concern, information about the occurrence and characteristics of PFAS in estuarine and marine ecosystems is poorly represented. In this study, the presence of 51 PFAS were monitored in the Pensacola Bay System (PBS), Florida, USA. Due to the presence of many potential PFAS sources in close proximity to the PBS (e.g., military bases, industries, airports and several firefighting stations), the distribution and concentration of PFAS in this estuarine environment provides insights into the fate of these complex compounds as well as the possible impacts on coastal systems. Surface water was collected and analyzed from 45 different sites via Strata-X-AW cartridge extractions and ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS) analysis. Recoveries for many PFAS (13/51) were >60% (mean 77 %), with relative standard deviations below 20%, except for N-methylperfluoro-1-octanesulfonamidoacetic acid (N-MeFOSAA) (22%). Of the perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs), which comprised the majority of PFAS detected: perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA) were present in all samples; however, perfluoropentanoic acid (PFPeA) was the individual PFAS with the highest concentration of this group (51.9 ng.L-1, at site 81). The PFAS detected at the highest concentrations were perfluoroalkyl sulfonic acids (PFSA), with perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) having the highest detected concentration (269 ng.L-1, at site 81). At all sites, at least eight or more PFAS were quantified. Past and current use of PFAS-containing materials and their fate in areas surrounding military bases, airports, and industries, require more in-depth monitoring efforts to better determine the need for regulation, management, and/or remediation. Here, sites located close to areas suspected of PFAS use had elevated concentrations. For example, one coastal location near an airfield had a ΣPFAS of 677 ng.L-1. Expansion from these ongoing efforts will focus on assessment of PFAS-related effects in local wildlife and evaluating the distribution of PFAS at these "hotspot" sites during large episodic weather events, a critically understudied phenomenon regarding PFAS and vulnerable coastal environments.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in the environment.

Over the past several years, the term PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) has grown to be emblematic of environmental contamination, garnering public, scientific, and regulatory concern. PFAS are synthesized by two processes, direct fluorination (e.g., electrochemical fluorination) and oligomerization (e.g., fluorotelomerization). More than a megatonne of PFAS is produced yearly, and thousands of PFAS wind up in end-use products. Atmospheric and aqueous fugitive releases during manufacturing, use, and disposal have resulted in the global distribution of these compounds. Volatile PFAS facilitate long-range transport, commonly followed by complex transformation schemes to recalcitrant terminal PFAS, which do not degrade under environmental conditions and thus migrate through the environment and accumulate in biota through multiple pathways. Efforts to remediate PFAS-contaminated matrices still are in their infancy, with much current research targeting drinking water.

Using metabolomic profiling to inform use of surrogate species in ecological risk assessment practices.

The U.S. EPA frequently uses avian or fish toxicity data to set protective standards for amphibians in ecological risk assessments. However, this approach does not always adequately represent aquatic-dwelling and terrestrial-phase amphibian exposure data. For instance, it is accepted that early life stage tests for fish are typically sensitive enough to protect larval amphibians, however, metamorphosis from tadpole to a terrestrial-phase adult relies on endocrine cues that are less prevalent in fish but essential for amphibian life stage transitions. These differences suggest that more robust approaches are needed to adequately elucidate the impacts of pesticide exposure in amphibians across critical life stages. Therefore, in the current study, methodology is presented that can be applied to link the perturbations in the metabolomic response of larval zebrafish (Danio rerio), a surrogate species frequently used in ecotoxicological studies, to those of African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis) tadpoles following exposure to three high-use pesticides, bifenthrin, chlorothalonil, or trifluralin. Generally, D. rerio exhibited greater metabolic perturbations in both number and magnitude across the pesticide exposures as opposed to X. laevis. This suggests that screening ecological risk assessment surrogate toxicity data would sufficiently protect amphibians at the single life stage studied but care needs to be taken to understand the suite of metabolic requirements of each developing species. Ultimately, methodology presented, and data gathered herein will help inform the applicability of metabolomic profiling in establishing the risk pesticide exposure poses to amphibians and potentially other non-target species.

Projected Climate and Hydroregime Variability Constrain Ephemeral Wetland-Dependent Amphibian Populations in Simulations of Southern Toads.

Amphibian populations are threatened globally by stressors, including diminishing availability of suitable wetland breeding sites, altered hydroregimes driven by changing weather patterns, and exposure to contaminants. Ecological risk assessment should encompass spatial and temporal scales that capture influential ecological processes and demographic responses. Following the PopGUIDE framework of population model development for risk assessment, we used matrix population models, in conjunction with existing hydroregime predictions, under a climate change scenario to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity and aquatic pesticide exposure on amphibians that are dependent on ephemeral wetlands. Using southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) as an example, we simulated population dynamics with breeding success dependent on hydroregime suitability. Years were defined as optimal, marginal, or insufficient for successful toad recruitment, based on the duration of their potential breeding season and rate of larval development to metamorphosis. We simulated both probabilistic and chronologically specific population projections, including variable annual fecundity, based on hydroregime suitability and reduced larval survival from carbaryl exposure. In our simulations, populations were more negatively impacted by prolonged drought, and consequently multiple sequential years of reproductive failure, than by aquatic pesticide exposure. These results highlight the necessity of reliable climate projections to accurately represent the effects of altered hydroregimes on amphibian populations. Risk assessment approaches could be improved with flexible modifications that allow inclusion of various extrinsic stressors and identification of demographic and ecological vulnerabilities when precise data are lacking.

Global political responsibility for the conservation of albatrosses and large petrels.

Migratory marine species cross political borders and enter the high seas, where the lack of an effective global management framework for biodiversity leaves them vulnerable to threats. Here, we combine 10,108 tracks from 5775 individual birds at 87 sites with data on breeding population sizes to estimate the relative year-round importance of national jurisdictions and high seas areas for 39 species of albatrosses and large petrels. Populations from every country made extensive use of the high seas, indicating the stake each country has in the management of biodiversity in international waters. We quantified the links among national populations of these threatened seabirds and the regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs) which regulate fishing in the high seas. This work makes explicit the relative responsibilities that each country and RFMO has for the management of shared biodiversity, providing invaluable information for the conservation and management of migratory species in the marine realm.

Pop-guide: Population modeling guidance, use, interpretation, and development for ecological risk assessment.

The assimilation of population models into ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, ensuring that the models address risk assessment objectives has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated modeling framework and decision guide to aid the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with the protection goal. The decision guide provides risk assessors with a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. We have merged the decision guide and modeling framework into a comprehensive approach, Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE), for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. In Phase 1 of Pop-GUIDE, assessors are guided through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision, which are translated into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to guide development of a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure consistency and transparency of the modeling process. We introduce Pop-GUIDE as the most comprehensive guidance for population model development provided to date and demonstrate its use through case studies using fish as an example taxon and the US Federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act and Endangered Species Act as example regulatory statutes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:767-784. © 2020 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in sediments collected from the Pensacola Bay System watershed.

Sediment samples from 25 locations in the Pensacola Bay System (PBS) watershed were analyzed for the presence of 51 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) using ultra high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS) and selected reaction monitoring. Results revealed quantifiable concentrations of PFAS in all sampling locations. More specifically, perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) was present in every sediment sample with a minimum and maximum concentration of 0.04 to 0.48 ng g-1 dry weight, respectively, across the 25 sites with an average of 0.1 ± 0.09 ng g-1. While PFOS, with an average of 0.11 ± 0.14 ng g-1 (range:

Cross-Taxa Distinctions in Mechanisms of Developmental Effects for Aquatic Species Exposed to Trifluralin.

Standard ecological risk assessment practices often rely on larval and juvenile fish toxicity data as representative of the amphibian aquatic phase. Empirical evidence suggests that endpoints measured in fish early life stage tests are often sufficient to protect larval amphibians. However, the process of amphibian metamorphosis relies on endocrine cues that affect development and morphological restructuring and are not represented by these test endpoints. The present study compares developmental endpoints for zebrafish (Danio rerio) and the African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), 2 standard test species, exposed to the herbicide trifluralin throughout the larval period. Danio rerio were more sensitive and demonstrated a reduction in growth measurements with increasing trifluralin exposure. Size of X. laevis at metamorphosis was not correlated with exposure concentration; however, time to metamorphosis was delayed relative to trifluralin concentration. Gene expression patterns indicate discrepancies in response by D. rerio and X. laevis, and dose-dependent metabolic activity suggests that trifluralin exposure perturbed biological pathways differently within the 2 species. Although many metabolites were correlated with exposure concentration in D. rerio, nontargeted hepatic metabolomics identified a subset of metabolites that exhibited a nonmonotonic response to trifluralin exposure in X. laevis. Linking taxonomic distinctions in cellular-level response with ecologically relevant endpoints will refine assumptions used in interspecies extrapolation of standard test effects and improve assessment of sublethal impacts on amphibian populations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:1797-1812. Published 2020. This article is a US government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Guidance for Developing Amphibian Population Models for Ecological Risk Assessment.

Despite widespread acceptance of the utility of population modeling and advocacy of this approach for a more ecologically relevant perspective, it is not routinely incorporated in ecological risk assessments (ERA). A systematic framework for situation-specific model development is one of the major challenges to broadly adopting population models in ERA. As risk assessors confront the multitude of species and chemicals requiring evaluation, an adaptable stepwise guide for model parameterization would facilitate this process. Additional guidance on interpretation of model output and evaluating uncertainty would further contribute to establishing consensus on good modeling practices. We build on previous work that created a framework and decision guide for developing population models for ERA by focusing on data types, model structure, and extrinsic stressors relevant to anuran amphibians. Anurans have a unique life cycle with varying habitat requirements and high phenotypic plasticity. These species belong to the amphibian class, which is facing global population decline in large part due to anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals. We synthesize information from databases and literature relevant to amphibian risks to identify traits that influence exposure likelihood, inherent sensitivity, population vulnerability, and environmental constraints. We link these concerns with relevant population modeling methods and structure in order to evaluate pesticide effects with appropriate scale and parameterization. A standardized population modeling approach, with additional guidance for anuran ERA, offers an example method for quantifying population risks and evaluating long-term impacts of chemical stressors to populations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:223-233. © 2019 SETAC.

A framework for linking population model development with ecological risk assessment objectives.

The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level endpoints into a holistic interpretation of effect to the population; however, there continues to be a struggle for actual application of these models as a common practice in ERA. Although general frameworks for developing models for ERA have been proposed, there is limited guidance on when models should be used, in what form, and how to interpret model output to inform the risk manager's decision. We propose a framework for developing and applying population models in regulatory decision making that focuses on trade-offs of generality, realism, and precision for both ERAs and models. We approach the framework development from the perspective of regulators aimed at defining the needs of specific models commensurate with the assessment objective. We explore why models are not widely used by comparing their requirements and limitations with the needs of regulators. Using a series of case studies under specific regulatory frameworks, we classify ERA objectives by trade-offs of generality, realism, and precision and demonstrate how the output of population models developed with these same trade-offs informs the ERA objective. We examine attributes for both assessments and models that aid in the discussion of these trade-offs. The proposed framework will assist risk assessors and managers to identify models of appropriate complexity and to understand the utility and limitations of a model's output and associated uncertainty in the context of their assessment goals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:369-380. Published 2017. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Simulated developmental and reproductive impacts on amphibian populations and implications for assessing long-term effects.

Fish endpoints measured in early life stage toxicity tests are often used as representative of larval amphibian sensitivity in Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). This application potentially overlooks the impact of developmental delays on amphibian metamorphosis, and thereby reduced survival, in amphibian populations constrained by habitat availability. Likewise, the effects of reduced productivity or altered sexual development as a result of chemical exposure are not presented in terms of lower population fecundity in these surrogate tests. Translating endpoints measured in toxicity tests to those that are more representative of amphibian ecology and population dynamics provides a means of identifying how developmental effects result in long-term impacts. Here we compare effects of developmental delay on metamorphosis success in six anuran species and simulate population-level impacts of subsequent reductions in larval survival as well as potential reductions in fecundity as a result of developmental impacts. We use deterministic matrix models to compare realistic combinations of amphibian demographic rates and relative impacts of reduced growth on larval survival and subsequently on population growth. Developmental delays are less detrimental in species with longer and less synchronous larval periods. All six species were most sensitive to changes in first-year survival, and damping ratios were generally a good indicator of resilience to perturbations in both larval survival and fecundity. Further identification of species and population-level vulnerabilities can improve the evaluation of sublethal effects in relevant context for ERA.

Linking ecosystem service supply to stakeholder concerns on both land and sea: An example from Guánica Bay watershed, Puerto Rico.

Policies to protect coastal resources may lead to greater social, economic, and ecological returns when they consider potential co-benefits and trade-offs on land. In Guánica Bay watershed, Puerto Rico, a watershed management plan is being implemented to restore declining quality of coral reefs due to sediment and nutrient runoff. However, recent stakeholder workshops indicated uncertainty about benefits for the local community. A total of 19 metrics were identified to capture stakeholder concerns, including 15 terrestrial ecosystem services in the watershed and 4 metrics in the coastal zone. Ecosystem service production functions were applied to quantify and map ecosystem service supply in 1) the Guánica Bay watershed and 2) a highly engineered upper multi-watershed area connected to the lower watershed via a series of reservoirs and tunnels. These two watersheds were compared to other watersheds in Puerto Rico. Relative to other watersheds, the Upper Guánica watershed had high air pollutant removal rates, forest habitat area, biodiversity of charismatic and endangered species, but low farmland quality and low sediment retention. The Lower Guánica watershed had high rates of denitrification and high levels of marine-based recreational and fishing opportunities compared to other watersheds, but moderate to low air pollutant removal, soil carbon content, sediment and nutrient retention, and terrestrial biodiversity. Our results suggest that actions in the watershed to protect coral reefs may lead to improvements in other ecosystem services that stakeholders care about on land. Considering benefits from both coastal and terrestrial ecosystems in making coastal management decisions may ultimately lead to a greater return on investment and greater stakeholder acceptance, while still achieving conservation goals.

Spatially explicit assessment of estuarine fish after Deepwater Horizon oil spill: trade-off in complexity and parsimony.

Evaluating long-term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information readily available, making it difficult to determine the applicability of realistic models to quantify population-level risks. To evaluate the trade-offs between data demands and increased specificity of spatially explicit models for population-level risk assessments, we developed a model for a standard toxicity test species, the sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus), exposed to oil contamination following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and compared the output with various levels of model complexity to a standard risk quotient approach. The model uses habitat and fish occupancy data collected over five sampling periods throughout 2008-2010 in Pensacola and Choctawhatchee Bays, Florida, USA, to predict species distribution, field-collected and publically available data on oil distribution and concentration, and chronic toxicity data from laboratory assays applied to a matrix population model. The habitat suitability model established distribution of fish within Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, and the population model projected the dynamics of the species in the study area over a 5-yr period (October 2009-September 2014). Vital rates were modified according to estimated contaminant concentrations to simulate oil exposure effects. To evaluate the differences in levels of model complexity, simulations varied from temporally and spatially explicit, including seasonal variation and location-specific oiling, to simple interpretations of a risk quotient derived for the study area. The results of this study indicate that species distribution, as well as spatially and temporally variable contaminant concentrations, can provide a more ecologically relevant evaluation of species recovery from catastrophic environmental impacts but might not be cost-effective or efficient for rapid assessment needs.

Effects of Louisiana crude oil on the sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) during a life-cycle exposure to laboratory oiled sediment.

Determining the long-term effects of crude oil exposure is critical for ascertaining population-level ecological risks of spill events. A 19-week complete life-cycle experiment was conducted with the estuarine sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) exposed to reference (uncontaminated) sediment spiked with laboratory weathered South Louisiana crude (SLC) oil at five concentrations as well as one unspiked sediment control and one seawater (no sediment) control. Newly hatched larvae were exposed to the oiled sediments at measured concentrations of < 1 (sediment control), 50, 103, 193, 347, and 711 mg total polyaromatic hydrocarbons (tPAH)/kg dry sediment. Juveniles were exposed through the reproductively active adult phase at measured concentrations of <1 (sediment control), 52, 109, 199, 358, and 751 mg tPAH/kg sediment. Throughout the exposure, fish were assessed for growth, survival, and reproduction. Resulting F1 embryos were then collected, incubated, and hatched in clean water to determine if parental full life-cycle exposure to oiled sediment produced trans-generational effects. Larvae experienced significantly reduced standard length (5-13% reduction) and wet weight (13-35% reduction) at concentrations at and above 50 and 103 mg tPAH/kg sediment, respectively. At 92 and 132 days post hatch (dph), standard length was reduced (7-13% reduction) at 199 and 109 mg tPAH/kg dry sediment, respectively, and wet weight for both time periods was reduced at concentrations at and above 109 mg tPAH/kg dry sediment (21-38% reduction). A significant reduction (51-65%) in F0 fecundity occurred at the two highest test concentrations, but no difference was observed in F1 embryo survival. This study is the first to report the effects of chronic laboratory exposure to oiled sediment, and will assist the development of population models for evaluating risk to benthic spawning fish species exposed to oiled sediments. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Environ Toxicol 31: 1627-1639, 2016.

Developmental toxicity of Louisiana crude oil-spiked sediment to zebrafish.

Embryonic exposures to the components of petroleum, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), cause a characteristic suite of developmental defects and cardiotoxicity in a variety of fish species. We exposed zebrafish embryos to reference sediment mixed with laboratory weathered South Louisiana crude oil and to sediment collected from an oiled site in Barataria Bay, Louisiana in December 2010. Laboratory oiled sediment exposures caused a reproducible set of developmental malformations in zebrafish embryos including yolk sac and pericardial edema, craniofacial and spinal defects, and tissue degeneration. Dose-response studies with spiked sediment showed that total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (tPAH) concentrations of 27mg tPAH/kg (dry weight normalized to 1 percent organic carbon [1 percent OC]) caused a significant increase in defects, and concentrations above 78mg tPAH/kg 1 percent OC caused nearly complete embryo mortality. No toxicity was observed in Barataria sediment with 2mg tPAH/kg 1 percent OC. Laboratory aging of spiked sediment at 4°C resulted in a nearly 10-fold decrease in sensitivity over a 40-day period. This study demonstrates oiled sediment as an exposure pathway to fish with dose-dependent effects on embryogenesis that are consistent with PAH mechanisms of developmental toxicity. The results have implications for effects on estuarine fish from oiled coastal areas during the Deepwater Horizon spill.

Augmenting aquatic species sensitivity distributions with interspecies toxicity estimation models.

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are cumulative distribution functions of species toxicity values. The SSD approach is being used increasingly in ecological risk assessment but is often limited by available toxicity data needed for diverse species representation. In the present study, the authors evaluate augmenting aquatic species databases limited to standard test species using toxicity values extrapolated from interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models for SSD development. The authors compared hazard concentrations at the 5th centile (HC5) of SSDs developed using limited measured data augmented with ICE toxicity values (augmented SSDs) with those estimated using larger measured toxicity datasets of diverse species (reference SSDs). When SSDs had similar species composition to the reference SSDs, 0.76 of the HC5 estimates were closer to the reference HC5; however, the proportion of augmented HC5s that were within 5-fold of the reference HC5s was 0.94, compared with 0.96 when predicted SSDs had random species assemblages. The range of toxicity values among represented species in all SSDs also depended on a chemical's mode of action. Predicted HC5 estimations for acetylcholinesterase inhibitors showed the greatest discrepancies from the reference HC5 when SSDs were limited to commonly tested species. The results of the present study indicate that ICE models used to augment datasets for SSDs do not greatly affect HC5 uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis of risk assessments using SSD hazard concentrations should address species composition, especially for chemicals with known taxa-specific differences in toxicological effects. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Sensitivity of species to chemicals: dose-response characteristics for various test types (LC(50), LR(50) and LD(50)) and modes of action.

While variable sensitivity of model species to common toxicants has been addressed in previous studies, a systematic analysis of inter-species variability for different test types, modes of action and species is as of yet lacking. Hence, the aim of the present study was to identify similarities and differences in contaminant levels affecting cold-blooded and warm-blooded species administered via different routes. To that end, data on lethal water concentrations LC50, tissue residues LR50 and oral doses LD50 were collected from databases, each representing the largest of its kind. LC50 data were multiplied by a bioconcentration factor (BCF) to convert them to internal concentrations that allow for comparison among species. For each endpoint data set, we calculated the mean and standard deviation of species' lethal level per compound. Next, the means and standard deviations were averaged by mode of action. Both the means and standard deviations calculated depended on the number of species tested, which is at odds with quality standard setting procedures. Means calculated from (BCF) LC50, LR50 and LD50 were largely similar, suggesting that different administration routes roughly yield similar internal levels. Levels for compounds interfering biochemically with elementary life processes were about one order of magnitude below that of narcotics disturbing membranes, and neurotoxic pesticides and dioxins induced death in even lower amounts. Standard deviations for LD50 data were similar across modes of action, while variability of LC50 values was lower for narcotics than for substances with a specific mode of action. The study indicates several directions to go for efficient use of available data in risk assessment and reduction of species testing.

Evaluation of in silico development of aquatic toxicity species sensitivity distributions.

Determining the sensitivity of a diversity of species to environmental contaminants continues to be a significant challenge in ecological risk assessment because toxicity data are generally limited to a few standard test species. This study assessed whether species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) could be generated with reasonable accuracy using only in silico modeling of toxicity to aquatic organisms. Ten chemicals were selected for evaluation that spanned several modes of actions and chemical classes. Median lethal concentrations (LC50s) were estimated using three internet-based quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) tools that employ different computational approaches: ECOSAR (Ecological Structure Activity Relationships), ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk), and TEST (Toxicity Estimation Software Tool). Each QSAR estimate was then used as input into the SSD module of the internet-based toxicity estimation program Web-ICE to generate an in silico estimated fifth percentile hazard concentration (HC5) for each of the ten chemicals. The accuracy of the estimated HC5s was determined by comparison to measured HC5s developed from an independent dataset of experimental acute toxicity values for a diversity of aquatic species. Estimated HC5s showed generally poor agreement with measured HC5s determined for all available aquatic species, but showed better agreement when species composition of the chemical specific SSDs were identical. These results indicated that LC50 variability and species composition were large sources of error in estimated HC5s. Additional research is needed to reduce uncertainty in HC5s using only in silico approaches and to develop computational approaches for predicting species sensitivity.

Assessment of indirect pesticide effects on worm-eating warbler populations in a managed forest ecosystem.

Ecological risk assessments rarely evaluate indirect pesticide effects. Pesticides causing no direct mortality in wildlife can still reduce prey availability, resulting in a lower reproductive rate or poor juvenile condition. Few studies have examined these consequences at the population level. We use a four-year data set from a forest ecosystem in which Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki (Btk) was applied to control gypsy moths (Lymantria dispar L.). Lower worm-eating warbler (Helmitheros vermivorus) productivity on Btk plots contributed to an intrinsic growth rate <1. Altered provisioning behavior by adults led to lower nestling mass in Btk-treated plots, and simulations of reduced juvenile survival expected as a result further reduced population growth rate. The present study explored different spatial representations of treated areas, using a two-patch matrix model incorporating dispersal. Minimal migration from areas with increasing subpopulations could compensate for detrimental reductions in reproductive success and juvenile survival within treated subpopulations. We also simulated population dynamics with different proportions of treated areas to inform management strategies in similar systems. Nontoxic insecticides are capable of impacting nontarget populations with consistent, long-term use and should be evaluated based on the spatial connectivity representative of habitat availability and the time period appropriate for risk assessment of pesticide effects in wildlife populations.