Associations of Urine and Plasma Metabolites with Kidney Failure and Death in a CKD Cohort.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Biomarkers that enable better identification of persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are at higher risk for disease progression and adverse events are needed. This study sought to identify urine and plasma metabolites associated with progression of kidney disease. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective metabolome-wide association study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Persons with CKD enrolled in the German CKD Study (GCKD) with metabolite measurements; with external validation within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. EXPOSURES: 1,513 urine and 1,416 plasma metabolites (Metabolon, Inc.) measured at study entry using untargeted mass spectrometry. OUTCOMES: Main endpoints were kidney failure (KF), and a composite endpoint of KF, eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73m2, or 40% decline in eGFR (CKE). Death from any cause was a secondary endpoint. After a median of 6.5 years follow-up, 500 persons experienced KF, 1,083 experienced CKE and 680 died. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Time-to-event analyses using multivariable proportional hazard regression models in a discovery-replication design, with external validation. RESULTS: 5,088 GCKD participants were included in analyses of urine metabolites and 5,144 in analyses of plasma metabolites. Among 182 unique metabolites, 30 were significantly associated with KF, 49 with CKE, and 163 with death. The strongest association with KF was observed for plasma hydroxyasparagine (hazard ratio: 1.95, 95% confidence interval: 1.68-2.25). An unnamed metabolite measured in plasma and urine was significantly associated with KF, CKE, and death. External validation of the identified associations of metabolites with KF or CKE revealed direction-consistency for 88% of observed associations. Selected associations of 18 metabolites with study outcomes have not been previously reported. LIMITATIONS: Use of observational data and semi-quantitative metabolite measurements at a single time point. CONCLUSIONS: The observed associations between metabolites and KF, CKE or death in persons with CKD confirmed previously reported findings and also revealed several associations not previously described. These findings warrant confirmatory research in other study cohorts.

Interactive exploration of adverse events and multimorbidity in CKD.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk of adverse events, early mortality, and multimorbidity. A detailed overview of adverse event types and rates from a large CKD cohort under regular nephrological care is missing. We generated an interactive tool to enable exploration of adverse events and their combinations in the prospective, observational German CKD (GCKD) study. METHODS: The GCKD study enrolled 5217 participants under regular nephrological care with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30-60 or >60 mL/min/1.73m2 and an overt proteinuria. Cardio-, cerebro- and peripheral vascular, kidney, infection, and cancer events, as well as deaths were adjudicated following a standard operation procedure. We summarized these time-to-event data points for exploration in interactive graphs within an R shiny app. Multivariable adjusted Cox models for time to first event were fitted. Cumulative incidence functions, Kaplan-Meier curves and intersection plots were used to display main adverse events and their combinations by sex and CKD etiology. RESULTS: Over a median of 6.5 years, 10 271 events occurred in total and 680 participants (13.0%) died while 2947 participants (56.5%) experienced any event. The new publicly available interactive platform enables readers to scrutinize adverse events and their combinations as well as mortality trends as a gateway to better understand multimorbidity in CKD: incident rates per 1000 patient-years varied by event type, CKD etiology, and baseline characteristics. Incidence rates for the most frequent events and their recurrence were 113.6 (cardiovascular), 75.0 (kidney), and 66.0 (infection). Participants with diabetic kidney disease and men were more prone to experiencing events. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive explorative tool to visualize adverse events (https://gckd.diz.uk-erlangen.de/), their combination, mortality, and multimorbidity among persons with CKD may manifest as a valuable resource for patient care, identification of high-risk groups, health services, and public health policy planning.

Expectation of clinical decision support systems: a survey study among nephrologist end-users.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), a major public health problem with differing disease etiologies, leads to complications, comorbidities, polypharmacy, and mortality. Monitoring disease progression and personalized treatment efforts are crucial for long-term patient outcomes. Physicians need to integrate different data levels, e.g., clinical parameters, biomarkers, and drug information, with medical knowledge. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) can tackle these issues and improve patient management. Knowledge about the awareness and implementation of CDSS in Germany within the field of nephrology is scarce. PURPOSE: Nephrologists' attitude towards any CDSS and potential CDSS features of interest, like adverse event prediction algorithms, is important for a successful implementation. This survey investigates nephrologists' experiences with and expectations towards a useful CDSS for daily medical routine in the outpatient setting. METHODS: The 38-item questionnaire survey was conducted either by telephone or as a do-it-yourself online interview amongst nephrologists across all of Germany. Answers were collected and analysed using the Electronic Data Capture System REDCap, as well as Stata SE 15.1, and Excel. The survey consisted of four modules: experiences with CDSS (M1), expectations towards a helpful CDSS (M2), evaluation of adverse event prediction algorithms (M3), and ethical aspects of CDSS (M4). Descriptive statistical analyses of all questions were conducted. RESULTS: The study population comprised 54 physicians, with a response rate of about 80-100% per question. Most participants were aged between 51-60 years (45.1%), 64% were male, and most participants had been working in nephrology out-patient clinics for a median of 10.5 years. Overall, CDSS use was poor (81.2%), often due to lack of knowledge about existing CDSS. Most participants (79%) believed CDSS to be helpful in the management of CKD patients with a high willingness to try out a CDSS. Of all adverse event prediction algorithms, prediction of CKD progression (97.8%) and in-silico simulations of disease progression when changing, e. g., lifestyle or medication (97.7%) were rated most important. The spectrum of answers on ethical aspects of CDSS was diverse. CONCLUSION: This survey provides insights into experience with and expectations of out-patient nephrologists on CDSS. Despite the current lack of knowledge on CDSS, the willingness to integrate CDSS into daily patient care, and the need for adverse event prediction algorithms was high.

Uromodulin and its association with urinary metabolites: the German Chronic Kidney Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), a global public health burden, is accompanied by a declining number of functional nephrons. Estimation of remaining nephron mass may improve assessment of CKD progression. Uromodulin has been suggested as a marker of tubular mass. We aimed to identify metabolites associated with uromodulin concentrations in urine and serum to characterize pathophysiologic alterations of metabolic pathways to generate new hypotheses regarding CKD pathophysiology. METHODS: We measured urinary and serum uromodulin levels (uUMOD, sUMOD) and 607 urinary metabolites and performed cross-sectional analyses within the German Chronic Kidney Disease study (N = 4628), a prospective observational study. Urinary metabolites significantly associated with uUMOD and sUMOD were used to build weighted metabolite scores for urine (uMS) and serum uromodulin (sMS) and evaluated for time to adverse kidney events over 6.5 years. RESULTS: Metabolites cross-sectionally associated with uromodulin included amino acids of the tryptophan metabolism, lipids and nucleotides. Higher levels of the sMS [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64; 0.82), P = 7.45e-07] and sUMOD [HR = 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63; 0.87), P = 2.32e-04] were associated with a lower risk of adverse kidney events over time, whereas uUMOD and uMS showed the same direction of association but were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: We identified urinary metabolites associated with urinary and serum uromodulin. The sUMOD and the sMS were associated with lower risk of adverse kidney events among CKD patients. Higher levels of sUMOD and sMS may reflect a higher number of functional nephrons and therefore a reduced risk of adverse kidney outcomes.