Sensor-based surveillance for digitising real-time COVID-19 tracking in the USA (DETECT): a multivariable, population-based, modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Traditional viral illness surveillance relies on in-person clinical or laboratory data, paper-based data collection, and outdated technology for data transfer and aggregation. We aimed to assess whether continuous sensor data can provide an early warning signal for COVID-19 activity as individual physiological and behavioural changes might precede symptom onset, care seeking, and diagnostic testing. METHODS: This multivariable, population-based, modelling study recruited adult (aged ≥18 years) participants living in the USA who had a smartwatch or fitness tracker on any device that connected to Apple HealthKit or Google Fit and had joined the DETECT study by downloading the MyDataHelps app. In the model development cohort, we included people who had participated in DETECT between April 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2022. In the validation cohort, we included individuals who had participated between Jan 15 and Feb 15, 2022. When a participant joins DETECT, they fill out an intake survey of demographic information, including their ZIP code (postal code), and surveys on symptoms, symptom onset, and viral illness test dates and results, if they become unwell. When a participant connects their device, historical sensor data are collected, if available. Sensor data continue to be collected unless a participant withdraws from the study. Using sensor data, we collected each participant's daily resting heart rate and step count during the entire study period and identified anomalous sensor days, in which resting heart rate was higher than, and step count was lower than, a specified threshold calculated for each individual by use of their baseline data. The proportion of users with anomalous data each day was used to create a 7-day moving average. For the main cohort, a negative binomial model predicting 7-day moving averages for COVID-19 case counts, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in real time, 6 days in the future, and 12 days in the future in the USA and California was fitted with CDC-reported data from 3 days before alone (H0) or in combination with anomalous sensor data (H1). We compared the predictions with Pearson correlation. We then validated the model in the validation cohort. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2022, 35 842 participants enrolled in DETECT, of whom 4006 in California and 28 527 in the USA were included in our main cohort. The H1 model significantly outperformed the H0 model in predicting the 7-day moving average COVID-19 case counts in California and the USA. For example, Pearson correlation coefficients for predictions 12 days in the future increased by 32·9% in California (from 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·73] to 0·93 [0·92-0·94]) and by 12·2% (from 0·82 [0·79-0·84] to 0·92 [0·91-0·93]) in the USA from the H0 model to the H1 model. Our validation model also showed significant correlations for predictions in real time, 6 days in the future, and 12 days in the future. INTERPRETATION: Our study showed that passively collected sensor data from consenting participants can provide real-time disease tracking and forecasting. With a growing population of wearable technology users, these sensor data could be integrated into viral surveillance programmes. FUNDING: The National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the US National Institutes of Health, The Rockefeller Foundation, and Amazon Web Services.

Improving participant representation in the era of digital clinical studies.

Traditional clinical research relies on conventional strategies to invite and enroll research participants. However, these strategies often fail to reach potential participants from marginalized communities or that reflect the diversity of the nation, such as race, ethnicity, or geography. As we discuss here, the digital clinical study model sets the stage for improved and equitable participation in biomedical research.

The Power of Patient Engagement With Electronic Health Records as Research Participants.

Electronic health record (EHR) technology has become a central digital health tool throughout health care. EHR systems are responsible for a growing number of vital functions for hospitals and providers. More recently, patient-facing EHR tools are allowing patients to interact with their EHR and connect external sources of health data, such as wearable fitness trackers, personal genomics, and outside health services, to it. As patients become more engaged with their EHR, the volume and variety of digital health information will serve an increasingly useful role in health care and health research. Particularly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ability for the biomedical research community to pivot to fully remote research, driven largely by EHR data capture and other digital health tools, is an exciting development that can significantly reduce burden on study participants, improve diversity in clinical research, and equip researchers with more robust clinical data. In this viewpoint, we describe how patient engagement with EHR technology is poised to advance the digital clinical trial space, an innovative research model that is uniquely accessible and inclusive for study participants.

Inter-individual variation in objective measure of reactogenicity following COVID-19 vaccination via smartwatches and fitness bands.

The ability to identify who does or does not experience the intended immune response following vaccination could be of great value in not only managing the global trajectory of COVID-19 but also helping guide future vaccine development. Vaccine reactogenicity can potentially lead to detectable physiologic changes, thus we postulated that we could detect an individual's initial physiologic response to a vaccine by tracking changes relative to their pre-vaccine baseline using consumer wearable devices. We explored this possibility using a smartphone app-based research platform that enabled volunteers (39,701 individuals) to share their smartwatch data, as well as self-report, when appropriate, any symptoms, COVID-19 test results, and vaccination information. Of 7728 individuals who reported at least one vaccination dose, 7298 received an mRNA vaccine, and 5674 provided adequate data from the peri-vaccine period for analysis. We found that in most individuals, resting heart rate (RHR) increased with respect to their individual baseline after vaccination, peaked on day 2, and returned to normal by day 6. This increase in RHR was greater than one standard deviation above individuals' normal daily pattern in 47% of participants after their second vaccine dose. Consistent with other reports of subjective reactogenicity following vaccination, we measured a significantly stronger effect after the second dose relative to the first, except those who previously tested positive to COVID-19, and a more pronounced increase for individuals who received the Moderna vaccine. Females, after the first dose only, and those aged <40 years, also experienced a greater objective response after adjusting for possible confounding factors. These early findings show that it is possible to detect subtle, but important changes from an individual's normal as objective evidence of reactogenicity, which, with further work, could prove useful as a surrogate for vaccine-induced immune response.

Passive detection of COVID-19 with wearable sensors and explainable machine learning algorithms.

Individual smartwatch or fitness band sensor data in the setting of COVID-19 has shown promise to identify symptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection or the need for hospitalization, correlations between peripheral temperature and self-reported fever, and an association between changes in heart-rate-variability and infection. In our study, a total of 38,911 individuals (61% female, 15% over 65) have been enrolled between March 25, 2020 and April 3, 2021, with 1118 reported testing positive and 7032 negative for COVID-19 by nasopharyngeal PCR swab test. We propose an explainable gradient boosting prediction model based on decision trees for the detection of COVID-19 infection that can adapt to the absence of self-reported symptoms and to the available sensor data, and that can explain the importance of each feature and the post-test-behavior for the individuals. We tested it in a cohort of symptomatic individuals who exhibited an AUC of 0.83 [0.81-0.85], or AUC = 0.78 [0.75-0.80] when considering only data before the test date, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithm in these conditions. The analysis of all individuals (including asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic) when self-reported symptoms were excluded provided an AUC of 0.78 [0.76-0.79], or AUC of 0.70 [0.69-0.72] when considering only data before the test date. Extending the use of predictive algorithms for detection of COVID-19 infection based only on passively monitored data from any device, we showed that it is possible to scale up this platform and apply the algorithm in other settings where self-reported symptoms can not be collected.

Three year clinical outcomes in a nationwide, observational, siteless clinical trial of atrial fibrillation screening-mHealth Screening to Prevent Strokes (mSToPS).

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common, often without symptoms, and is an independent risk factor for mortality, stroke and heart failure. It is unknown if screening asymptomatic individuals for AF can improve clinical outcomes. METHODS: mSToPS was a pragmatic, direct-to-participant trial that randomized individuals from a single US-wide health plan to either immediate or delayed screening using a continuous-recording ECG patch to be worn for two weeks and 2 occasions, ~3 months apart, to potentially detect undiagnosed AF. The 3-year outcomes component of the trial was designed to compare clinical outcomes in the combined cohort of 1718 individuals who underwent monitoring and 3371 matched observational controls. The prespecified primary outcome was the time to first event of the combined endpoint of death, stroke, systemic embolism, or myocardial infarction among individuals with a new AF diagnosis, which was hypothesized to be the same in the two cohorts but was not realized. RESULTS: Over the 3 years following the initiation of screening (mean follow-up 29 months), AF was newly diagnosed in 11.4% (n = 196) of screened participants versus 7.7% (n = 261) of observational controls (p<0.01). Among the screened cohort with incident AF, one-third were diagnosed through screening. For all individuals whose AF was first diagnosed clinically, a clinical event was common in the 4 weeks surrounding that diagnosis: 6.6% experienced a stroke,10.2% were newly diagnosed with heart failure, 9.2% had a myocardial infarction, and 1.5% systemic emboli. Cumulatively, 42.9% were hospitalized. For those diagnosed via screening, none experienced a stroke, myocardial infarction or systemic emboli in the period surrounding their AF diagnosis, and only 1 person (2.3%) had a new diagnosis of heart failure. Incidence rate of the prespecified combined primary endpoint was 3.6 per 100 person-years among the actively monitored cohort and 4.5 per 100 person-years in the observational controls. CONCLUSIONS: At 3 years, screening for AF was associated with a lower rate of clinical events and improved outcomes relative to a matched cohort, although the influence of earlier diagnosis of AF via screening on this finding is unclear. These observational data, including the high event rate surrounding a new clinical diagnosis of AF, support the need for randomized trials to determine whether screening for AF will yield a meaningful protection from strokes and other clinical events. TRAIL REGISTRATION: The mHealth Screening To Prevent Strokes (mSToPS) Trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT02506244.

The Physiologic Response to COVID-19 Vaccination.

Two mRNA vaccines and one adenovirus-based vaccine against SARS CoV-2 are currently being distributed at scale in the United States. Objective evidence of a specific individual's physiologic response to that vaccine are not routinely tracked but may offer insights into the acute immune response and personal and/or vaccine characteristics associated with that. We explored this possibility using a smartphone app-based research platform developed early in the pandemic that enabled volunteers (38,911 individuals between 25 March 2020 and 4 April 2021) to share their smartwatch and activity tracker data, as well as self-report, when appropriate, any symptoms, COVID-19 test results and vaccination dates and type. Of 4,110 individuals who reported at least one mRNA vaccination dose, 3,312 provided adequate resting heart rate data from the peri-vaccine period for analysis. We found changes in resting heart rate with respect to an individual baseline increased the days after vaccination, peaked on day 2, and returned to normal on day 6, with a much stronger effect after second dose with respect to first dose (average changes 1.6 versus 0.5 beats per minute). The changes were more pronounced for individuals who received the Moderna vaccine (on both doses), those who previously tested positive to COVID-19 (on dose 1), and for individuals aged <40 years, after adjusting for possible confounding factors. Taking advantage of continuous passive data from personal sensors could potentially enable the identification of a digital fingerprint of inflammation, which might prove useful as a surrogate for vaccine-induced immune response.

Wearable sensor data and self-reported symptoms for COVID-19 detection.

Traditional screening for COVID-19 typically includes survey questions about symptoms and travel history, as well as temperature measurements. Here, we explore whether personal sensor data collected over time may help identify subtle changes indicating an infection, such as in patients with COVID-19. We have developed a smartphone app that collects smartwatch and activity tracker data, as well as self-reported symptoms and diagnostic testing results, from individuals in the United States, and have assessed whether symptom and sensor data can differentiate COVID-19 positive versus negative cases in symptomatic individuals. We enrolled 30,529 participants between 25 March and 7 June 2020, of whom 3,811 reported symptoms. Of these symptomatic individuals, 54 reported testing positive and 279 negative for COVID-19. We found that a combination of symptom and sensor data resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (interquartile range (IQR): 0.73-0.86) for discriminating between symptomatic individuals who were positive or negative for COVID-19, a performance that is significantly better (P < 0.01) than a model1 that considers symptoms alone (AUC = 0.71; IQR: 0.63-0.79). Such continuous, passively captured data may be complementary to virus testing, which is generally a one-off or infrequent sampling assay.

Healthcare resource utilization following ECG sensor patch screening for atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Screening for asymptomatic, undiagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) has the potential to allow earlier treatment, possibly resulting in prevention of strokes, but also to increase medical resource utilization. OBJECTIVE: To compare healthcare utilization rates during the year following initiation of screening among participants screened for AF by electrocardiogram (ECG) sensor patch compared with a matched observational control group. METHODS: A total of 1718 participants recruited from a health care plan based on age and comorbidities who were screened with an ECG patch (actively monitored group) as part of a prospective, pragmatic research trial were matched by age, sex, and CHA2DS2-VASc score with 3371 members from the same health plan (observational control group). Healthcare utilization, including visits, prescriptions, procedures, and diagnoses, during the 1 year following screening was compared between the groups using health plan claims data. RESULTS: Overall, the actively monitored group had significantly higher rates of cardiology visits (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 1.43 [1.27, 1.60]), no difference in primary care provider visits (aIRR [95% CI]: 1.0 [0.95, 1.05]), but lower rates of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations (aIRR [95% CI]: 0.80 [0.69, 0.92]) compared with controls. Among those with newly diagnosed AF, the reduction in ED visits and hospitalizations was even greater (aIRR [95% CI]: 0.27 [0.17, 0.43]). CONCLUSION: AF screening in an asymptomatic, moderate-risk population with an ECG patch was associated with an increase in cardiology outpatient visits but also significantly lower rates of ED visits and hospitalizations over the 1 year following screening.

Characteristics of the modern-day physician house call.

Many barriers to primary healthcare accessibility in the United States exist including an increased opportunity cost associated with seeking primary care. New models of healthcare delivery aimed at addressing these problems are emerging. The potential impact that on-demand primary care physician house calls services can have on healthcare accessibility, patient care, and satisfaction by both patients and physicians is poorly characterized.We performed a retrospective observational analysis on data from 13,849 patients who utilized Heal, Inc, an application (app)-based, on-demand house calls platform between August 2016 and July 2017. We assessed house call wait time and visit duration, diagnoses by International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision, Inc (ICD10) codes, and house call outcomes by post-visit prescription and lab requests, and patient satisfaction survey.Patients who utilized this physician house call service had a bimodal age distribution peaking at age 1 year and 36 years. Same day acute sick exams (93.9% of pediatric (Ped) and 66.9% of adult requests) for fever and/or acute upper respiratory infection represented the most common use. The mean wait time for as soon as possible house calls were 96.1 minutes, with an overall mean house call duration of 27.1 minutes. A house call was primarily chosen over an Urgent Care Clinic or Doctor's office (46.2% and 41.6% of respondents, respectively), due to convenience or fastest appointment available (69.6% and 33.8% of respondents, respectively). Most survey respondents (94.2%) would schedule house calls again.On-demand physician house calls programs can expand access options to primary healthcare, primarily used by younger individuals with acute illness and preference for a smartphone app-based home visit.

Digital recruitment and enrollment in a remote nationwide trial of screening for undiagnosed atrial fibrillation: Lessons from the randomized, controlled mSToPS trial.

OBJECTIVES: The advent of large databases, wearable technology, and novel communications methods has the potential to expand the pool of candidate research participants and offer them the flexibility and convenience of participating in remote research. However, reports of their effectiveness are sparse. We assessed the use of various forms of outreach within a nationwide randomized clinical trial being conducted entirely by remote means. METHODS: Candidate participants at possibly higher risk for atrial fibrillation were identified by means of a large insurance claims database and invited to participate in the study by their insurance provider. Enrolled participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups testing a wearable sensor device for detection of the arrhythmia. RESULTS: Over 10 months, the various outreach methods used resulted in enrollment of 2659 participants meeting eligibility criteria. Starting with a baseline enrollment rate of 0.8% in response to an email invitation, the recruitment campaign was iteratively optimized to ultimately include website changes and the use of a five-step outreach process (three short, personalized emails and two direct mailers) that highlighted the appeal of new technology used in the study, resulting in an enrollment rate of 9.4%. Messaging that highlighted access to new technology outperformed both appeals to altruism and appeals that highlighted accessing personal health information. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted outreach, enrollment, and management of large remote clinical trials is feasible and can be improved with an iterative approach, although more work is needed to learn how to best recruit and retain potential research participants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.govNCT02506244. Registered 23 July 2015.

Effect of a Home-Based Wearable Continuous ECG Monitoring Patch on Detection of Undiagnosed Atrial Fibrillation: The mSToPS Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Opportunistic screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) is recommended, and improved methods of early identification could allow for the initiation of appropriate therapies to prevent the adverse health outcomes associated with AF. Objective: To determine the effect of a self-applied wearable electrocardiogram (ECG) patch in detecting AF and the clinical consequences associated with such a detection strategy. Design, Setting, and Participants: A direct-to-participant randomized clinical trial and prospective matched observational cohort study were conducted among members of a large national health plan. Recruitment began November 17, 2015, and was completed on October 4, 2016, and 1-year claims-based follow-up concluded in January 2018. For the clinical trial, 2659 individuals were randomized to active home-based monitoring to start immediately or delayed by 4 months. For the observational study, 2 deidentified age-, sex- and CHA2DS2-VASc-matched controls were selected for each actively monitored individual. Interventions: The actively monitored cohort wore a self-applied continuous ECG monitoring patch at home during routine activities for up to 4 weeks, initiated either immediately after enrolling (n = 1364) or delayed for 4 months after enrollment (n = 1291). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the incidence of a new diagnosis of AF at 4 months among those randomized to immediate monitoring vs delayed monitoring. A secondary end point was new AF diagnosis at 1 year in the combined actively monitored groups vs matched observational controls. Other outcomes included new prescriptions for anticoagulants and health care utilization (outpatient cardiology visits, primary care visits, or AF-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations) at 1 year. Results: The randomized groups included 2659 participants (mean [SD] age, 72.4 [7.3] years; 38.6% women), of whom 1738 (65.4%) completed active monitoring. The observational study comprised 5214 (mean [SD] age, 73.7 [7.0] years; 40.5% women; median CHA2DS2-VASc score, 3.0), including 1738 actively monitored individuals from the randomized trial and 3476 matched controls. In the randomized study, new AF was identified by 4 months in 3.9% (53/1366) of the immediate group vs 0.9% (12/1293) in the delayed group (absolute difference, 3.0% [95% CI, 1.8%-4.1%]). At 1 year, AF was newly diagnosed in 109 monitored (6.7 per 100 person-years) and 81 unmonitored (2.6 per 100 person-years; difference, 4.1 [95% CI, 3.9-4.2]) individuals. Active monitoring was associated with increased initiation of anticoagulants (5.7 vs 3.7 per 100 person-years; difference, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.9-2.2]), outpatient cardiology visits (33.5 vs 26.0 per 100 person-years; difference, 7.5 [95% CI, 7.2-7.9), and primary care visits (83.5 vs 82.6 per 100 person-years; difference, 0.9 [95% CI, 0.4-1.5]). There was no difference in AF-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations (1.3 vs 1.4 per 100 person-years; difference, 0.1 [95% CI, -0.1 to 0]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among individuals at high risk for AF, immediate monitoring with a home-based wearable ECG sensor patch, compared with delayed monitoring, resulted in a higher rate of AF diagnosis after 4 months. Monitored individuals, compared with nonmonitored controls, had higher rates of AF diagnosis, greater initiation of anticoagulants, but also increased health care resource utilization at 1 year. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02506244.