Adjusting Overall Survival Estimates of Macitentan in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension After Treatment Switching: Results from the SERAPHIN Study.

INTRODUCTION: Evaluating overall survival in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can often be confounded by bias introduced by treatment switching. SERAPHIN was a large RCT that evaluated the effects of long-term treatment with the endothelin receptor antagonist macitentan in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. In an intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis, a non-significant decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality up to study closure was reported with macitentan 10 mg versus placebo. As patients could switch treatment when experiencing symptoms of disease progression, this analysis attempts to adjust for the confounding effects on overall survival. METHODS: The inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) and rank-preserving structural failure time (RPSFT) models were used to estimate the treatment effect on overall mortality had there been no treatment switching in SERAPHIN. Time to all-cause death was evaluated up to study closure. Treatment switching was defined as patients in the placebo group switching to open-label macitentan 10 mg, and patients in the macitentan 10 mg group prematurely discontinuing macitentan. RESULTS: By study closure, 73.2% (183/250) of patients in the placebo group had switched to macitentan 10 mg. Among these patients, exposure time to macitentan 10 mg represented 28.2% of total study treatment exposure (cumulative exposure 134.6 patient-years). At study closure, 24.8% (60/242) of patients in the macitentan 10 mg group were not receiving open-label macitentan; mean time not receiving macitentan was 44.3 weeks. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for overall survival using the IPCW and RPSFT methods were lower (HR 0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.22, 0.81; p = 0.009, and HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.04, 2.83, respectively) than the ITT unadjusted HR (0.80, 95% CI 0.51, 1.24). CONCLUSION: These results from the current analyses indicate that in SERAPHIN, the standard ITT analysis was confounded by treatment switching resulting in an underestimation of the benefit of macitentan 10 mg on overall survival. By adjusting for switching, the IPCW and RPSFT models estimated a 58% and 67% reduction in risk of mortality, respectively, with macitentan 10 mg versus placebo. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00660179.

Integrating Data From Randomized Controlled Trials and Observational Studies to Assess Survival in Rare Diseases.

Background Conducting randomized controlled trials to investigate survival in a rare disease like pulmonary arterial hypertension has considerable ethical and logistical constraints. In many studies, such as the Study with an Endothelin Receptor Antagonist in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension to Improve Clinical Outcome (SERAPHIN) randomized controlled trial, evaluating survival is further complicated by bias introduced by allowing active therapy among placebo-treated patients who clinically deteriorate. Methods and Results SERAPHIN enrolled and followed patients in the same time frame as the US Registry to Evaluate Early And Long-term PAH Disease Management, providing an opportunity to compare observed survival for SERAPHIN patients with predicted survival had they received real-world treatment as in the Registry to Evaluate Early And Long-term PAH Disease Management. From the Registry to Evaluate Early And Long-term PAH Disease Management (N=3515), 734 patients who met SERAPHIN eligibility criteria were selected and their data used to build a prediction model for time to death up to 3 years based on 10 baseline prognostic variables. The model was used to predict a survival curve for each of the 742 SERAPHIN patients via their baseline variables. The average of these predicted survival curves was compared with observed survival of the placebo (n=250) and macitentan 10 mg (n=242) groups using a log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model. Observed mortality risk for patients randomized to placebo, 62% of whom were taking background pulmonary arterial hypertension therapy, tended to be lower than that predicted for all SERAPHIN patients (16% lower; P=0.259). The observed placebo survival curve closely approximated the predicted survival curve for the first 15 months. Beyond that time, observed risk of mortality decreased compared with predicted mortality, potentially reflecting the impact of crossover of patients in the placebo group to active therapy. Over 3 years, risk of mortality observed with macitentan 10 mg was 35% lower than predicted mortality ( P=0.010). Conclusions These analyses show that, in a rare disease, real-world observational data can complement randomized controlled trial data to overcome some challenges associated with assessing survival in the setting of a randomized controlled trial. Clinical Trial Registration https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifiers: NCT00660179 and NCT00370214.

Pharmacokinetics of IL-18 binding protein in healthy volunteers and subjects with rheumatoid arthritis or plaque psoriasis.

IL-18 binding protein (BP) neutralizes the activity of IL-18, a cytokine implicated in psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We investigated the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety of recombinant human IL-18 BP (r-hIL-18 BP) in healthy volunteers and subjects with psoriasis or RA in four phase I studies. A) Healthy volunteers (n = 24) were randomised to receive a single subcutaneous (sc) injection of r-hIL-18 BP (20, 70, 210 or 350 mg) or placebo. B) Healthy volunteers (n = 10) were randomised to receive six sc injections of r-hIL-18 BP (35 or 175 mg, 48 h between injections) or placebo. C) Subjects with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (n = 35) were randomised to receive r-hIL-18 BP (20, 160 or 320 mg, sc tiw) or placebo for 6 weeks. D) Subjects with active, moderate-to-severe RA (n = 36) were randomised to receive r-hIL-18 BP (20, 80, 160 mg, sc tiw) or placebo for 6 weeks. Pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety were assessed in all four studies. r-hIL-18 BP showed a dose-dependent pharmacokinetic profile, with a peak serum concentration of 6-48 hours. With repeated sc injections tiw, a steady state was achieved in 1-2 weeks among subjects with psoriasis or RA. The majority of adverse events were mild or moderate in severity. Injection site reactions were the most frequently reported event in subjects with psoriasis or RA. r-hIL-18 BP displays dose-dependent pharmacokinetics, has a favourable safety profile and is well-tolerated in healthy volunteers and in subjects with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis or active, moderate-to-severe RA.