Pandemic Risk Assessment for Swine Influenza A Virus in Comparative In Vitro and In Vivo Models.

Swine influenza A viruses pose a public health concern as novel and circulating strains occasionally spill over into human hosts, with the potential to cause disease. Crucial to preempting these events is the use of a threat assessment framework for human populations. However, established guidelines do not specify which animal models or in vitro substrates should be used. We completed an assessment of a contemporary swine influenza isolate, A/swine/GA/A27480/2019 (H1N2), using animal models and human cell substrates. Infection studies in vivo revealed high replicative ability and a pathogenic phenotype in the swine host, with replication corresponding to a complementary study performed in swine primary respiratory epithelial cells. However, replication was limited in human primary cell substrates. This contrasted with our findings in the Calu-3 cell line, which demonstrated a replication profile on par with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. These data suggest that the selection of models is important for meaningful risk assessment.

Isolation and whole genome sequencing of North American lineage class I avian orthoavulavirus 1 isolated from wild Eurasian teal in South Korea.

We report the first North American origin class I avian orthoavulavirus 1 (AOAV-1) isolated from a faecal dropping of wild Eurasian teal (Anas crecca) in South Korea. Whole genome sequencing and comparative phylogenetic analysis revealed that the AOAV-1/Eurasian teal/South Korea/KU1405-3/2017 virus belongs to the sub-genotype 1.2 of class I AOAV-1. Phylogenetic analysis suggested multiple introductions of the North American sub-genotype 1.2 viruses into Asia and its establishment in the wild bird population in East Asia since May 2011. These results provide information on the epidemiology of AOAV-1, particularly the role of migratory wild birds in exchanging viruses between the Eurasian and North American continents. Enhanced genomic surveillance is required to improve our understanding on the evolution and transmission dynamics of AOAV-1 in wild birds.

Assessment of Humoral Immune Responses to Repeated Influenza Vaccination in a Multiyear Cohort: A 5-Year Follow-up.

The long-term effects of host factors on vaccine-elicited immune responses have not been well studied, and the interactions of host factors with annual influenza vaccinations are yet to be explored. We analyzed data from a cohort of 386 individuals who received the standard-dose influenza vaccine and enrolled in ≥2 seasons from 2016 to 2020. Our analyses indicated disparate vaccine-elicited immune responses between males and females in adults when they were repeatedly vaccinated for at least 2 seasons. Notably, we found interactive effects between age and body mass index (BMI) on overall immune responses, and between sex at birth and BMI in adults.

Beyond scale-free networks: integrating multilayer social networks with molecular clusters in the local spread of COVID-19.

This study evaluates the scale-free network assumption commonly used in COVID-19 epidemiology, using empirical social network data from SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant molecular local clusters in Houston, Texas. We constructed genome-informed social networks from contact and co-residence data, tested them for scale-free power-law distributions that imply highly connected hubs, and compared them to alternative models (exponential, log-normal, power-law with exponential cutoff, and Weibull) that suggest more evenly distributed network connections. Although the power-law model failed the goodness of fit test, after incorporating social network ties, the power-law model was at least as good as, if not better than, the alternatives, implying the presence of both hub and non-hub mechanisms in local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. These findings enhance our understanding of the complex social interactions that drive SARS-CoV-2 transmission, thereby informing more effective public health interventions.

Annual (2023) taxonomic update of RNA-directed RNA polymerase-encoding negative-sense RNA viruses (realm Riboviria: kingdom Orthornavirae: phylum Negarnaviricota).

In April 2023, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by one new family, 14 new genera, and 140 new species. Two genera and 538 species were renamed. One species was moved, and four were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV.

The species coalescent indicates possible bat and pangolin origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A consensus species tree is reconstructed from 11 gene trees for human, bat, and pangolin beta coronaviruses from samples taken early in the pandemic (prior to April 1, 2020). Using coalescent theory, the shallow (short branches relative to the hosts) consensus species tree provides evidence of recent gene flow events between bat and pangolin beta coronaviruses predating the zoonotic transfer to humans. The consensus species tree was also used to reconstruct the ancestral sequence of human SARS-CoV-2, which was 2 nucleotides different from the Wuhan sequence. The time to most recent common ancestor was estimated to be Dec 8, 2019 with a bat origin. Some human, bat, and pangolin coronavirus lineages found in China are phylogenetically distinct, a rare example of a class II phylogeography pattern (Avise et al. in Ann Rev Eco Syst 18:489-422, 1987). The consensus species tree is a product of evolutionary factors, providing evidence of repeated zoonotic transfers between bat and pangolin as a reservoir for future zoonotic transfers to humans.

Comparing the transmission potential from sequence and surveillance data of 2009 North American influenza pandemic waves.

Technological advancements in phylodynamic modeling coupled with the accessibility of real-time pathogen genetic data are increasingly important for understanding the infectious disease transmission dynamics. In this study, we compare the transmission potentials of North American influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 derived from sequence data to that derived from surveillance data. The impact of the choice of tree-priors, informative epidemiological priors, and evolutionary parameters on the transmission potential estimation is evaluated. North American Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences are analyzed using the coalescent and birth-death tree prior models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ). Epidemiological priors gathered from published literature are used to simulate the birth-death skyline models. Path-sampling marginal likelihood estimation is conducted to assess model fit. A bibliographic search to gather surveillance-based R 0 values were consistently lower (mean ≤ 1.2) when estimated by coalescent models than by the birth-death models with informative priors on the duration of infectiousness (mean ≥ 1.3 to ≤2.88 days). The user-defined informative priors for use in the birth-death model shift the directionality of epidemiological and evolutionary parameters compared to non-informative estimates. While there was no certain impact of clock rate and tree height on the R 0 estimation, an opposite relationship was observed between coalescent and birth-death tree priors. There was no significant difference (p = 0.46) between the birth-death model and surveillance R 0 estimates. This study concludes that tree-prior methodological differences may have a substantial impact on the transmission potential estimation as well as the evolutionary parameters. The study also reports a consensus between the sequence-based R 0 estimation and surveillance-based R 0 estimates. Altogether, these outcomes shed light on the potential role of phylodynamic modeling to augment existing surveillance and epidemiological activities to better assess and respond to emerging infectious diseases.

Diversity and evolution of computationally predicted T cell epitopes against human respiratory syncytial virus.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory infection. Despite more than 60 years of research, there is no licensed vaccine. While B cell response is a major focus for vaccine design, the T cell epitope profile of RSV is also important for vaccine development. Here, we computationally predicted putative T cell epitopes in the Fusion protein (F) and Glycoprotein (G) of RSV wild circulating strains by predicting Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) class I and class II binding affinity. We limited our inferences to conserved epitopes in both F and G proteins that have been experimentally validated. We applied multidimensional scaling (MDS) to construct T cell epitope landscapes to investigate the diversity and evolution of T cell profiles across different RSV strains. We find the RSV strains are clustered into three RSV-A groups and two RSV-B groups on this T epitope landscape. These clusters represent divergent RSV strains with potentially different immunogenic profiles. In addition, our results show a greater proportion of F protein T cell epitope content conservation among recent epidemic strains, whereas the G protein T cell epitope content was decreased. Importantly, our results suggest that RSV-A and RSV-B have different patterns of epitope drift and replacement and that RSV-B vaccines may need more frequent updates. Our study provides a novel framework to study RSV T cell epitope evolution. Understanding the patterns of T cell epitope conservation and change may be valuable for vaccine design and assessment.

H1N1 G4 swine influenza T cell epitope analysis in swine and human vaccines and circulating strains uncovers potential risk to swine and humans.

BACKGROUND: Pandemic influenza viruses may emerge from animal reservoirs and spread among humans in the absence of cross-reactive antibodies in the human population. Immune response to highly conserved T cell epitopes in vaccines may still reduce morbidity and limit the spread of the new virus even when cross-protective antibody responses are lacking. METHODS: We used an established epitope content prediction and comparison tool, Epitope Content Comparison (EpiCC), to assess the potential for emergent H1N1 G4 swine influenza A virus (G4) to impact swine and human populations. We identified and computed the total cross-conserved T cell epitope content in HA sequences of human seasonal and experimental influenza vaccines, swine influenza vaccines from Europe and the United States (US) against G4. RESULTS: The overall T cell epitope content of US commercial swine vaccines was poorly conserved with G4, with an average T cell epitope coverage of 35.7%. EpiCC scores for the comparison between current human influenza vaccines and circulating human influenza strains were also very low. In contrast, the T cell epitope coverage of a recent European swine influenza vaccine (HL03) was 65.8% against G4. CONCLUSIONS: Poor T cell epitope cross-conservation between emergent G4 and swine and human influenza vaccines in the US may enable G4 to spread in swine and spillover to human populations in the absence of protective antibody response. One European influenza vaccine, HL03, may protect against emergent G4. This study illustrates the use of the EpiCC tool for prospective assessment of existing vaccine strains against emergent viruses in swine and human populations.

2022 taxonomic update of phylum Negarnaviricota (Riboviria: Orthornavirae), including the large orders Bunyavirales and Mononegavirales.

In March 2022, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by two new families (bunyaviral Discoviridae and Tulasviridae), 41 new genera, and 98 new species. Three hundred forty-nine species were renamed and/or moved. The accidentally misspelled names of seven species were corrected. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV.

Spatiotemporal changes in influenza A virus prevalence among wild waterfowl inhabiting the continental United States throughout the annual cycle.

Avian influenza viruses can pose serious risks to agricultural production, human health, and wildlife. An understanding of viruses in wild reservoir species across time and space is important to informing surveillance programs, risk models, and potential population impacts for vulnerable species. Although it is recognized that influenza A virus prevalence peaks in reservoir waterfowl in late summer through autumn, temporal and spatial variation across species has not been fully characterized. We combined two large influenza databases for North America and applied spatiotemporal models to explore patterns in prevalence throughout the annual cycle and across the continental United States for 30 waterfowl species. Peaks in prevalence in late summer through autumn were pronounced for dabbling ducks in the genera Anas and Spatula, but not Mareca. Spatially, areas of high prevalence appeared to be related to regional duck density, with highest predicted prevalence found across the upper Midwest during early fall, though further study is needed. We documented elevated prevalence in late winter and early spring, particularly in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Our results suggest that spatiotemporal variation in prevalence outside autumn staging areas may also represent a dynamic parameter to be considered in IAV ecology and associated risks.

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America.

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes), two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

Host diversity and behavior determine patterns of interspecies transmission and geographic diffusion of avian influenza A subtypes among North American wild reservoir species.

Wild birds can carry avian influenza viruses (AIV), including those with pandemic or panzootic potential, long distances. Even though AIV has a broad host range, few studies account for host diversity when estimating AIV spread. We analyzed AIV genomic sequences from North American wild birds, including 303 newly sequenced isolates, to estimate interspecies and geographic viral transition patterns among multiple co-circulating subtypes. Our results show high transition rates within Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, but limited transitions between these orders. Patterns of transition between species were positively associated with breeding habitat range overlap, and negatively associated with host genetic distance. Distance between regions (negative correlation) and summer temperature at origin (positive correlation) were strong predictors of transition between locations. Taken together, this study demonstrates that host diversity and ecology can determine evolutionary processes that underlie AIV natural history and spread. Understanding these processes can provide important insights for effective control of AIV.

Novel and extendable genotyping system for human respiratory syncytial virus based on whole-genome sequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the leading causes of respiratory infections, especially in infants and young children. Previous RSV sequencing studies have primarily focused on partial sequencing of G gene (200-300 nucleotides) for genotype characterization or diagnostics. However, the genotype assignment with G gene has not recapitulated the phylogenetic signal of other genes, and there is no consensus on RSV genotype definition. METHODS: We conducted maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis with 10 RSV individual genes and whole-genome sequence (WGS) that are published in GenBank. RSV genotypes were determined by using phylogenetic analysis and pair-wise node distances. RESULTS: In this study, we first statistically examined the phylogenetic incongruence, rate variation for each RSV gene sequence and WGS. We then proposed a new RSV genotyping system based on a comparative analysis of WGS and the temporal distribution of strains. We also provide an RSV classification tool to perform RSV genotype assignment and a publicly accessible up-to-date instance of Nextstrain where the phylogenetic relationship of all genotypes can be explored. CONCLUSIONS: This revised RSV genotyping system will provide important information for disease surveillance, epidemiology, and vaccine development.

High-Throughput Next-Generation Sequencing Respiratory Viral Panel: A Diagnostic and Epidemiologic Tool for SARS-CoV-2 and Other Viruses.

Two serious public health challenges have emerged in the current COVID-19 pandemic namely, deficits in SARS-CoV-2 variant monitoring and neglect of other co-circulating respiratory viruses. Additionally, accurate assessment of the evolution, extent, and dynamics of the outbreak is required to understand the transmission of the virus. To address these challenges, we evaluated 533 samples using a high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) respiratory viral panel (RVP) that includes 40 viral pathogens. The performance metrics revealed a PPA, NPA, and accuracy of 95.98%, 85.96%, and 94.4%, respectively. The clade for pangolin lineage B that contains certain distant variants, including P4715L in ORF1ab, Q57H in ORF3a, and S84L in ORF8 covarying with the D614G spike protein mutation, were the most prevalent early in the pandemic in Georgia, USA. The isolates from the same county formed paraphyletic groups, indicating virus transmission between counties. The study demonstrates the clinical and public health utility of the NGS-RVP to identify novel variants that can provide actionable information to prevent or mitigate emerging viral threats and models that provide insights into viral transmission patterns and predict transmission/resurgence of regional outbreaks as well as providing critical information on co-circulating respiratory viruses that might be independent factors contributing to the global disease burden.

2021 Taxonomic update of phylum Negarnaviricota (Riboviria: Orthornavirae), including the large orders Bunyavirales and Mononegavirales.

In March 2021, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by four families (Aliusviridae, Crepuscuviridae, Myriaviridae, and Natareviridae), three subfamilies (Alpharhabdovirinae, Betarhabdovirinae, and Gammarhabdovirinae), 42 genera, and 200 species. Thirty-nine species were renamed and/or moved and seven species were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV.

Quantifying the Persistence of Vaccine-Related T Cell Epitopes in Circulating Swine Influenza A Strains from 2013-2017.

When swine flu vaccines and circulating influenza A virus (IAV) strains are poorly matched, vaccine-induced antibodies may not protect from infection. Highly conserved T cell epitopes may, however, have a disease-mitigating effect. The degree of T cell epitope conservation among circulating strains and vaccine strains can vary, which may also explain differences in vaccine efficacy. Here, we evaluate a previously developed conserved T cell epitope-based vaccine and determine the persistence of T cell epitope conservation over time. We used a pair-wise homology score to define the conservation between the vaccine's swine leukocyte antigen (SLA) class I and II-restricted epitopes and T cell epitopes found in 1272 swine IAV strains sequenced between 2013 and 2017. Twenty-four of the 48 total T cell epitopes included in the epitope-based vaccine were highly conserved and found in >1000 circulating swine IAV strains over the 5-year period. In contrast, commercial swine IAV vaccines developed in 2013 exhibited a declining conservation with the circulating IAV strains over the same 5-year period. Conserved T cell epitope vaccines may be a useful adjunct for commercial swine flu vaccines and to improve protection against influenza when antibodies are not cross-reactive.

Proposal for Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Nomenclature below the Species Level.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the leading viral cause of serious pediatric respiratory disease, and lifelong reinfections are common. Its 2 major subgroups, A and B, exhibit some antigenic variability, enabling HRSV to circulate annually. Globally, research has increased the number of HRSV genomic sequences available. To ensure accurate molecular epidemiology analyses, we propose a uniform nomenclature for HRSV-positive samples and isolates, and HRSV sequences, namely: HRSV/subgroup identifier/geographic identifier/unique sequence identifier/year of sampling. We also propose a template for submitting associated metadata. Universal nomenclature would help researchers retrieve and analyze sequence data to better understand the evolution of this virus.