Associations of Menstrual Cycle and Progesterone-to-Estradiol Ratio With Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Use Disorder: A Sex-Separated Multicenter Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) constitutes a critical public health issue and has sex-specific characteristics. Initial evidence suggests that progesterone and estradiol might reduce or increase alcohol intake, respectively. However, there is a need for a better understanding of how the menstrual cycle in females and the ratio of progesterone to estradiol in females and males influence alcohol use patterns in individuals with AUD. METHODS: In this sex-separated multicenter longitudinal study, the authors analyzed 12-month data on real-life alcohol use (from 21,460 smartphone entries), menstrual cycle, and serum progesterone-to-estradiol ratios (from 667 blood samples at four individual study visits) in 74 naturally cycling females and 278 males with AUD between 2020 and 2022, using generalized and general linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: Menstrual cycle phases were significantly associated with binge drinking and progesterone-to-estradiol ratio. During the late luteal phase, females showed a lower predicted binge drinking probability of 13% and a higher predicted marginal mean of progesterone-to-estradiol ratio of 95 compared with during the menstrual, follicular, and ovulatory phases (binge drinking probability and odds ratios vs. late luteal phase, respectively: 17%, odds ratio=1.340, 95% CI=1.031, 1.742; 19%, odds ratio=1.523, 95% CI=1.190, 1.949; and 20%, odds ratio=1.683, 95% CI=1.285, 2.206; difference in progesterone-to-estradiol ratios, respectively: -61, 95% CI=-105.492, -16.095; -78, 95% CI=-119.322, -37.039; and -71, 95% CI=-114.568, -27.534). In males, a higher progesterone-to-estradiol ratio was related to lower probabilities of binge drinking and of any alcohol use, with a 10-unit increase in the hormone ratio resulting in odds ratios of 0.918 (95% CI=0.843, 0.999) and 0.914 (95% CI=0.845, 0.988), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These ecologically valid findings suggest that high progesterone-to-estradiol ratios can have a protective effect against problematic alcohol use in females and males with AUD, highlighting the progesterone-to-estradiol ratio as a promising treatment target. Moreover, the results indicate that females with AUD may benefit from menstrual cycle phase-tailored treatments.

Measuring self-regulation in everyday life: Reliability and validity of smartphone-based experiments in alcohol use disorder.

Self-regulation, the ability to guide behavior according to one's goals, plays an integral role in understanding loss of control over unwanted behaviors, for example in alcohol use disorder (AUD). Yet, experimental tasks that measure processes underlying self-regulation are not easy to deploy in contexts where such behaviors usually occur, namely outside the laboratory, and in clinical populations such as people with AUD. Moreover, lab-based tasks have been criticized for poor test-retest reliability and lack of construct validity. Smartphones can be used to deploy tasks in the field, but often require shorter versions of tasks, which may further decrease reliability. Here, we show that combining smartphone-based tasks with joint hierarchical modeling of longitudinal data can overcome at least some of these shortcomings. We test four short smartphone-based tasks outside the laboratory in a large sample (N = 488) of participants with AUD. Although task measures indeed have low reliability when data are analyzed traditionally by modeling each session separately, joint modeling of longitudinal data increases reliability to good and oftentimes excellent levels. We next test the measures' construct validity and show that extracted latent factors are indeed in line with theoretical accounts of cognitive control and decision-making. Finally, we demonstrate that a resulting cognitive control factor relates to a real-life measure of drinking behavior and yields stronger correlations than single measures based on traditional analyses. Our findings demonstrate how short, smartphone-based task measures, when analyzed with joint hierarchical modeling and latent factor analysis, can overcome frequently reported shortcomings of experimental tasks.

Patterns of Alcohol Consumption Among Individuals With Alcohol Use Disorder During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdowns in Germany.

Importance: Alcohol consumption (AC) leads to death and disability worldwide. Ongoing discussions on potential negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on AC need to be informed by real-world evidence. Objective: To examine whether lockdown measures are associated with AC and consumption-related temporal and psychological within-person mechanisms. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quantitative, intensive, longitudinal cohort study recruited 1743 participants from 3 sites from February 20, 2020, to February 28, 2021. Data were provided before and within the second lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: before lockdown (October 2 to November 1, 2020); light lockdown (November 2 to December 15, 2020); and hard lockdown (December 16, 2020, to February 28, 2021). Main Outcomes and Measures: Daily ratings of AC (main outcome) captured during 3 lockdown phases (main variable) and temporal (weekends and holidays) and psychological (social isolation and drinking intention) correlates. Results: Of the 1743 screened participants, 189 (119 [63.0%] male; median [IQR] age, 37 [27.5-52.0] years) with at least 2 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) yet without the need for medically supervised alcohol withdrawal were included. These individuals provided 14 694 smartphone ratings from October 2020 through February 2021. Multilevel modeling revealed significantly higher AC (grams of alcohol per day) on weekend days vs weekdays (ß = 11.39; 95% CI, 10.00-12.77; P < .001). Alcohol consumption was above the overall average on Christmas (ß = 26.82; 95% CI, 21.87-31.77; P < .001) and New Year's Eve (ß = 66.88; 95% CI, 59.22-74.54; P < .001). During the hard lockdown, perceived social isolation was significantly higher (ß = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.06-0.15; P < .001), but AC was significantly lower (ß = -5.45; 95% CI, -8.00 to -2.90; P = .001). Independent of lockdown, intention to drink less alcohol was associated with lower AC (ß = -11.10; 95% CI, -13.63 to -8.58; P < .001). Notably, differences in AC between weekend and weekdays decreased both during the hard lockdown (ß = -6.14; 95% CI, -9.96 to -2.31; P = .002) and in participants with severe AUD (ß = -6.26; 95% CI, -10.18 to -2.34; P = .002). Conclusions and Relevance: This 5-month cohort study found no immediate negative associations of lockdown measures with overall AC. Rather, weekend-weekday and holiday AC patterns exceeded lockdown effects. Differences in AC between weekend days and weekdays evinced that weekend drinking cycles decreased as a function of AUD severity and lockdown measures, indicating a potential mechanism of losing and regaining control. This finding suggests that temporal patterns and drinking intention constitute promising targets for prevention and intervention, even in high-risk individuals.