Retrospective comparisons of competing demographic models give clarity from "messy" management on a Scottish grouse moor.

Retrospective comparison of predictive models that describe competing hypotheses regarding system function can shed light on regulatory mechanisms within the framework of adaptive resource management. We applied this approach to a 28-year study of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) in Scotland, with the aims of reducing uncertainty regarding important drivers of grouse population dynamics, and of evaluating the efficacy of using seasonal versus annual model assessments. We developed three sets of models that predicted pre-breeding and post-breeding grouse density, matching the timing of grouse counts on the ground. We updated conditions and management through time in the spirit of a real-time, adaptive management program and used a Bayesian model weight updating process to compare model predictions with empirical grouse densities. The first two model sets involved single annual updates from either pre-breeding or post-breeding counts; the third set was updated twice a year. Each model set comprised seven models representing increasingly complex hypotheses regarding potentially important drivers of grouse: the baseline model included weather and parasite effects on productivity, shooting losses and density-dependent overwinter survival; subsequent models incorporated the effect of habitat gain/loss (HAB), control of non-protected predators (NPP) and predation by protected hen harriers (Circus cyaneus, HH) and buzzards (Buteo buteo, BZ). The weight of evidence was consistent across model sets, settling within 10 years on the harrier (NPP + HH), buzzard (NPP + HH + BZ) and buzzard + habitat (NPP + HH + BZ + HAB) models, and downgrading the baseline + habitat, non-protected predator, and non-protected predator + habitat models. By the end of the study only the buzzard and buzzard + habitat models retained substantial weights, emphasizing the dynamical complexity of the system. Habitat inclusion failed to improve model predictions, implying that over the period of this study habitat quantity was unimportant in determining grouse abundance. Comparing annually and biannually assessed model sets, the main difference was in the baseline model, whose weight increased or remained stable when assessed annually, but collapsed when assessed biannually. Our adaptive modeling approach is suitable for many ecological situations in which a complex interplay of factors makes experimental manipulation difficult.

The Rural Household Multiple Indicator Survey, data from 13,310 farm households in 21 countries.

The Rural Household Multiple Indicator Survey (RHoMIS) is a standardized farm household survey approach which collects information on 758 variables covering household demographics, farm area, crops grown and their production, livestock holdings and their production, agricultural product use and variables underlying standard socio-economic and food security indicators such as the Probability of Poverty Index, the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, and household dietary diversity. These variables are used to quantify more than 40 different indicators on farm and household characteristics, welfare, productivity, and economic performance. Between 2015 and the beginning of 2018, the survey instrument was applied in 21 countries in Central America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The data presented here include the raw survey response data, the indicator calculation code, and the resulting indicator values. These data can be used to quantify on- and off-farm pathways to food security, diverse diets, and changes in poverty for rural smallholder farm households.

Correlates of pathological lesions associated with respiratory cryptosporidiosis prevalence in shot red grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica from moors in northern England.

Infection of wild red grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica by Cryptosporidium baileyi was first diagnosed in 2010. Within three years, signs of infection were reported from grouse on half of all grouse moors in northern England, bringing severe concerns of economic losses to grouse shooting. A total of 45,914 red grouse shot from 10 moors in northern England between 2013 and 2018 were visually screened for signs of respiratory cryptosporidiosis. Prevalence varied with age, being twice as high in juveniles (4.5%) as in adults (2.4%). It also varied nine-fold between moors and three-fold between years. Prevalence was highest in grouse shot later in the shooting season. Our results are consistent with the concept that disease incidence is highest in naïve juveniles that have previously not been exposed to infection, with prevalence dropping as birds develop immunity. We found no evidence of increased prevalence over time, and fears of escalated disease prevalence, bringing with it increased mortality and lowered productivity, that may have significant impacts on the economic viability of shoots, have not yet been realized. We recommend continued annual screening for clinical signs amongst shot birds, better hygiene associated with potential reservoirs of infection, and practices that both improve the detection and selective culling of diseased individuals and generally reduce overall grouse densities.

Chemical characterisation of potential pheromones from the shoulder gland of the Northern yellow-shouldered-bat, Sturnira parvidens (Phyllostomidae: Stenodermatinae).

Bats of the genus Sturnira (Family Phyllostomidae) are characterised by shoulder glands that are more developed in reproductively mature adult males. The glands produce a waxy secretion that accumulates on the fur around the gland, dyeing the fur a dark colour and giving off a pungent odour. These shoulder glands are thought to play a role in their reproductive behaviour. Using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, we analysed solvent extracts of fur surrounding the shoulder gland in the northern-shouldered bat, Sturnira parvidens to (i) characterise the chemical composition of shoulder gland secretions for the first time, and (ii) look for differences in chemical composition among and between adult males, sub-adult/juvenile males and adult females. Fur solvent extracts were analysed as liquids and also further extracted using headspace solid-phase microextraction to identify volatile components in the odour itself. Odour fingerprint analysis using non-metric multidimensional scaling plots and multivariate analysis revealed clear and significant differences (P < 0.001) between adult males vs both juvenile males and adult females. The chemical components of the shoulder gland secretion included terpenes and phenolics, together with alcohols and esters, most likely derived from the frugivorous diet of the bat. Many of the compounds identified were found exclusively or in elevated quantities among adult (reproductive) males compared with adult females and non-reproductive (juvenile) males. This strongly suggests a specific role in male-female attraction although a function in male-male competition and/or species recognition is also possible.

Measures of predator diet alone may underestimate the collective impact on prey: Common buzzard Buteo buteo consumption of economically important red grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica.

Human-wildlife conflicts often centre on economic loss caused by wildlife. Yet despite being a major issue for land-managers, estimating total prey losses to predation can be difficult. Estimating impacts of protected wildlife on economically important prey can also help management decisions to be evidence-led. The recovery in population and range of common buzzards Buteo buteo in Britain has brought them into conflict with some gamebird interests. However, the magnitude of any impact is poorly understood. We used bioenergetics models that combine measures of buzzard abundance from field surveys with diets assessed by using cameras at nests, prey remains and pellet analysis, to estimate their impact on red grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica on a large (115 km2) moor managed for red grouse shooting in Scotland. Whilst grouse consumption by individual buzzards was lower than previous estimates for other raptor species present on our study site, total consumption could be greater given an estimated 55-73 buzzards were present on the study site year-round. Averaging across diet assessment methods, consumption models estimated that during each of three breeding seasons (April-July 2011-2013), the buzzards foraging on our study site consumed 73-141 adult grouse and 77-185 chicks (depending on year). This represented 5-11% of adult grouse present in April (22-67% of estimated adult mortality) and 2-5% of chicks that hatched (3-9% of estimated chick mortality). During two non-breeding seasons (August-March), consumption models using pellet analysis estimated that buzzards ate a total of 242-400 grouse, equivalent to 7-11% of those present at the start of August and 14-33% of estimated grouse mortality during the non-breeding season. Buzzard consumption of grouse has the potential to lead to non-trivial economic loss to grouse managers, but only if buzzards predated the grouse they ate, and if grouse mortality is additive to other causes.

Are Trichostrongylus tenuis control and resistance avoidance simultaneously manageable by reducing anthelmintic intake by grouse?

Benzimidazole-based anthelmintics bound to grit (medicated grit) are annually prescribed on request by veterinary practices to grouse managers to control Trichostrongylus tenuis an intestinal parasite of red grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica Those prescribing medication typically do without knowledge of parasite loads and hence often prescribe when loads are low and unlikely to impact the host. Inappropriate use of anthelmintics in livestock has led to development of parasite resistance to anthelmintics. To encourage grouse managers to reduce anthelmintic use, the authors experimentally withdrew medication from parts of eight moors. The authors monitored parasite and grouse responses by counting eggs and adult worms and grouse mortality and breeding success. Rapid increases in parasite egg counts in early spring culminated in resuming medication at three wet, blanket-peat sites; one in the first spring and two in the second. Medication was restored, despite low parasite counts, at a fourth moor. On the remaining four moors, drier heaths in the east, parasite levels remained low, were not associated with grouse mortality, but breeding success was 16 per cent lower in years without medication. Better parasite monitoring by grouse managers and vets alike may reduce anthelmintic use, helping prevent drug resistance, but this may be off-set by reduced grouse productivity.

The use and misuse of herbarium specimens in evaluating plant extinction risks.

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Long-term exposure to sensory feed additives during the gestational and postnatal periods affects sows' colostrum and milk sensory profiles, piglets' growth, and feed intake.

This study investigated the effect of feed supplementation in sows and/or their progeny with 2 sensory feed additives (FA1: limonene and cinnamaldehyde; FA2: menthol, carvone, and anethole) on sows' feed intake, body weight, fat deposition, and colostrum/milk composition, as well as piglets' feed intake growth and feed efficiency from birth to slaughter at postnatal day 160 (PND160). During the last third of gestation and the whole of lactation, sows were subjected to a control diet (C) or the same diet containing FA1 or FA2 at 0.1% of complete feed content. Colostrum/milk samples were taken at days 1, 14, and 28 of lactation for gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analyses. After weaning, the progeny was subjected to a control diet (C) or experimental diets with a sweetener (0.015%) but no other additive (S), or to diets with a sweetener and the additive FA1 (FA1S) or FA2 (FA2S). There was no effect of dietary treatment on sows' feed intake, body weight, or adiposity (P > 0.15 for all), but the sensory characteristics of their colostrum/milk were modified by the diet and diet*time interaction. Limonene concentrations were higher in FA1 samples from PND1 to PND28, whereas carvone and anethole concentrations were higher in FA2 samples from PND1 to PND28. The concentration of these 3 compounds increased with time in the respective groups where they were mostly detected. Menthol concentrations were higher in FA2 samples at PND14 and PND28, but there was no time effect. Overall, cinnamaldehyde was always below the detection range. Piglets born from FA1 and FA2 sows had higher body weight (P = 0.034 at PND160), average daily gain (ADG; P = 0.036 for PND0-160), and average daily feed intake (ADFI; P = 0.006 for PND28-160) than piglets born from C sows. Overall, piglets that were never exposed to FA or only after weaning had lower ADG (P = 0.030 for PND0-160) and ADFI (P = 0.016 for PND28-160) than piglets that were exposed to FA only via the maternal diet, the condition combining both pre- and post-natal exposure being intermediary. In conclusion, FA1 and FA2 provided to gestating and lactating sows increased the progeny's feed intake and growth, suggesting nutritional programming and/or sensory conditioning during the perinatal period. Addition of FA only in the progeny's diet was not beneficial.

Development of a Zeolite Filter for Removing Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) from Smoke and Smoked Ingredients while Retaining the Smoky Flavor.

The popularity of smoked foodstuffs such as sauces, marinades, and rubs is on the rise. However, during the traditional smoking process, in addition to the desirable smoky aroma compounds, harmful polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are also generated. In this work, a selective filter was developed that reduces PAH concentrations in a smoke by up to 90% while maintaining a desirable smoky flavor. Preliminary studies using a cocktail of 12 PAHs stirred with a zeolite showed the potential for this zeolite to selectively remove PAHs from a simple solution. However, pretreatment of the smoke prior to application removed the PAHs more efficiently and is more widely applicable to a range of food ingredients. Although volatile analysis showed that there was a concomitant reduction in the concentration of the smoky compounds such as 2-methoxyphenol (guaiacol), 2-methylphenol ( o-cresol), and the isoeugenols, sensory profiling showed that the difference in perception of flavor was minimal.

Microscopic and Molecular Tracing of Cryptosporidium Oocysts: Identifying a Possible Reservoir of Infection in Red Grouse.

Infection by Cryptosporidiumbaileyi causes respiratory cryptosporidiosis in red grouse Lagopuslagopusscotica. First diagnosed in 2010, it has since been detected across half of moors managed for grouse shooting in northern England. We hypothesised that contaminated grouse faeces within communal trays visited by grouse containing grit coated with flubendazole, provided to control Trichostrongylustenuis parasites of grouse, is a reservoir of infection. To establish the basis to this hypothesis, contents of 23 trays from a grouse moor were examined for Cryptosporidium oocysts. Contents were subjected to Immuno Magnetic Separation oocyst concentration techniques prior to examination by Immuno Fluorescence Antibody Test microscopy and molecular analysis on the 18S rRNA gene. Seven of 13 (54%) grit trays known to be used by infected grouse were positive for Cryptosporidium by IMS-IFAT, compared to two of 10 (20%) random background trays. Ten of the 13 (77%) trays used by infected birds amplified positive for Cryptosporidium by Polymerase Chain Reaction and three of the 10 (30%) random trays. All PCR amplified products sequenced matched with C.baileyi, with C.parvum also present in one tray. These data suggest that trays used to "worm" grouse may act as reservoirs of Cryptosporidium infection and their future design may need to be reconsidered to minimise contamination.

Has respiratory cryptosporidiosis spread to black grouse Tetrao tetrix?

Infection by Cryptosporidium baileyi was first confirmed in red grouse in northern England in 2010 and within three years spread to 48 per cent of moors. These form the last English stronghold for the rarer black grouse, and given the rapid spread of respiratory cryptosporidiosis among red grouse, concern has been expressed about possible infection. In 2010, the authors started screening black grouse for cryptosporidiosis in (1) dead birds taken for postmortem examination, (2) sample birds caught at night and (3) an observational study of birds attending leks. Between 2011 and 2016, five males were sent for postmortem examination, of which three had suspected cryptosporidiosis. No disease was found in one; the second had extensive, subacute to chronic sinusitis; and the third had severe sinusitis and unilateral conjunctivitis. PCR analysis detected cryptosporidial DNA in the third bird only; however, the parasite was not seen in stained preparations or on histopathology. No cryptosporidiosis clinical signs were observed in 69 birds caught at night or in 170 birds attending leks. The authors have no conclusive evidence that cryptosporidiosis is causing sinusitis in black grouse. However, a single positive cryptosporidia PCR result from an affected bird does raise the possibility that they may be infected with the parasite.

Effect of general anesthesia on pulmonary function and clinical status on children with cystic fibrosis.

INTRODUCTION: Children with cystic fibrosis (CF) receive general anesthesia (GA) for a variety of different procedures. Historical studies assessing risk of GA report a high risk of morbidity. There is a paucity of data evaluating the risk of currently available anesthetic agents. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of GA on clinical status and lung function on children with CF. METHODS: Children with CF aged 8-18 years admitted for IV antibiotic treatment for a pulmonary exacerbation were invited to participate. Spirometry, forced oscillation technique (FOT), and CF clinical score (CFCS) were measured pre-GA, at 24 and 48 h post-GA. The nature and duration of the GA were recorded. RESULTS: Twenty two patients were recruited of which 19 patients (mean age 11.4 years, range 8-18 years, 12 male) required GA. Typically, either propofol or sevoflurane was used as induction agent and maintenance of anesthesia was with sevoflurane. A laryngeal mask was used in most cases. FEV1 mean (±SD) pre-GA was 75.1% (±23.46) which decreased at 24 h to 74.8 (±23.0) and at 48 h to 74.3 (±20.5). FOT resistance and reactance decreased at 24 and 48 h from baseline. Changes in spirometry and CFCS were not statistically significant. Two adverse events were observed in this cohort. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that children with mild to moderate CF lung disease do not experience significant deterioration in central or peripheral airway function following GA. The low rate of complications suggests an improved level of safety for children with CF with modern anesthesia compared with historical published data.

Separation of thoraco-omphalopagus twins in a rural secondary hospital: Perioperative management.

Providing anaesthesia for the separation surgery of conjoined twins presents unique challenges to the managing anaesthesiologists. The low incidence of such surgeries and anatomical variations in each type of conjoined twins makes each separation surgery a unique experience. This report features the anaesthetic plan and challenges faced in performing the separation surgery of a set of thoraco-omphalopagus twins in a rural secondary hospital in a remote location in India.

Impact of unintentional selective harvesting on the population dynamics of red grouse.

1. The effect of selective exploitation of certain age, stage or sex classes (e.g., trophy hunting) on population dynamics is relatively well studied in fisheries and sexually dimorphic mammals. 2. Harvesting of terrestrial species with no morphological differences visible between the different age and sex classes (monomorphic species) is usually assumed to be nonselective because monomorphicity makes intentionally selective harvesting pointless and impractical. But harvesting of the red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus), a monomorphic species, was recently shown to be unintentionally selective. This study uses a sex- and age-specific model to explore the previously unresearched effects of unintentional harvesting selectivity. 3. We examine the effects of selectivity on red grouse dynamics by considering models with and without selectivity. Our models include territoriality and parasitism, two mechanisms known to be important for grouse dynamics. 4. We show that the unintentional selectivity of harvesting that occurs in red grouse decreases population yield compared with unselective harvesting at high harvest rates. Selectivity also dramatically increases extinction risk at high harvest rates. 5. Selective harvesting strengthens the 3- to 13-year red grouse population cycle, suggesting that the selectivity of harvesting is a previously unappreciated factor contributing to the cycle. 6. The additional extinction risk introduced by harvesting selectivity provides a quantitative justification for typically implemented 20-40% harvest rates, which are below the maximum sustainable yield that could be taken, given the observed population growth rates of red grouse. 7. This study shows the possible broad importance of investigating in future research whether unintentionally selective harvesting occurs on other species.

Anaesthetic considerations for the obese child.

The prevalence of obesity in the paediatric population is increasing worldwide. As a result, more and more children will present for anaesthetic care for surgery and other procedures. This review aims to provide some recent information regarding the anaesthetic management of the obese child. Unfortunately, there is little evidence on which to base our clinical care of these children and what information is available is often extrapolated from adult practice. Further prospective studies are required, with careful attention to definitions and terminology, so that populations can be compared and appropriate conclusions drawn.

Five-year analysis of operative mortality and neonatal outcomes in congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: We sought to compare overall mortality with neonatal outcomes over a five year period to define risk factors for mortality and service development priorities. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of surgical outcomes following repair or palliation of structural congenital heart defects January 2005-2010. We defined mortality according to contemporary international guidelines and classified surgical procedures using the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) score. The effect of age and weight at operation on mortality and annual variation in case-complexity and surgeon case-mix were assessed. Subgroup analysis was performed in patients who were ≤30 days at operation (neonates). RESULTS: Overall mortality within 30 days of operation or prior to hospital discharge was 1.3 and 1.9%, respectively. Mortality was higher in neonates (6.8%) and low birth weight infants (≤2.5kg) (12.1%). Mortality was similar in bypass versus non-bypass procedures (odds ratio 0.74, p=0.425). Annual mortality rates were consistent despite a marked increase in case-complexity. Neonates overall required longer periods of intensive care support and were more likely to suffer serious complications compared to older children. Age, weight and RACHS-1 score were independent risk factors for mortality on multivariate analysis. In neonates undergoing bypass procedures, only RACHS-1 score was a significant risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an accurate and contemporary audit of mortality risk associated with congenital heart surgery. Outcomes compare favourably to international benchmarks but highlight the risks of morbidity and mortality associated with neonatal cardiac surgery.

Allergic reactions to propofol in egg-allergic children.

BACKGROUND: Egg and/or soy allergy are often cited as contraindications to propofol administration. Our aim was to determine whether children with an immunoglobulin (Ig)E-mediated egg and/or soy allergy had an allergic reaction after propofol use. METHODS: We performed a retrospective case review over an 11-year period (1999-2010) of children with IgE-mediated egg and/or soy allergy who had propofol administered to them at the Children's Hospital Westmead, Sydney. RESULTS: Twenty-eight egg-allergic patients with 43 propofol administrations were identified. No child with a soy allergy who had propofol was identified. Twenty-one children (75%) were male, the median age at anesthesia was 2.4 years (range, 1-15 years), and the presence of other atopic disease was common (eczema 61%, asthma 32%, peanut allergy 43%). Most children (n = 19, 68%) had a history of an IgE-mediated clinical reaction to egg with evidence of a significantly positive egg white skin prick test (SPT) reaction (≥7 mm). Two of these had a history of egg anaphylaxis. The remaining children (n = 9, 32%) had never ingested egg because of significantly positive SPT (≥7 mm). All SPTs to egg were performed within 12 months of propofol administration. There was one nonanaphylactic immediate allergic reaction (n = 1 of 43, 2%) that occurred 15 minutes after propofol administration in a 7-year-old boy with a history of egg anaphylaxis and multiple other IgE-mediated food allergies (cow's milk, nut, and sesame). SPT to propofol was positive at 3 mm. No other egg-allergic child reacted to propofol. CONCLUSIONS: Despite current Australian labeling warnings, propofol was frequently administered to egg-allergic children. Propofol is likely to be safe in the majority of egg-allergic children who do not have a history of egg anaphylaxis.

Myocardial membrane injury in pediatric cardiac surgery: An animal model.

OBJECTIVE: Reduced myocardial performance invariably follows pediatric cardiac surgery and is manifested by a low cardiac output state in its severest form. The role of myocardial membrane proteins in this setting is unknown. Dystrophin and dysferlin are involved in membrane integrity, whereas aquaporins selectively transport water. These proteins were examined in a model of pediatric cardiac surgery, together with a trial of poloxamer 188, which may reduce membrane injury. METHODS: Eight lambs were randomized to saline with or without poloxamer 188. Lambs underwent 2 hours of cardiopulmonary bypass and aortic crossclamping. After a further 9 hours of monitoring, the hearts were assessed for water content, capillary leak, and protein expression. RESULTS: Dystrophin expression was unaffected by ischemia/reperfusion, but dysferlin expression was reduced. Aquaporin 1 protein increased after ischemia/reperfusion. Poloxamer 188 administration was associated with supranormal levels of dystrophin, preservation of dysferlin expression, and normalization of aquaporin 1 expression. Poloxamer 188 was associated with less capillary leak, maintained colloid osmotic pressure, and less hemodilution. Poloxamer 188 was associated with an improved hemodynamic profile (higher blood pressure, higher venous saturation, and lower lactate), although the heart rate tended to be higher. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in protein expression within the myocardial membrane were found in a clinically relevant model of pediatric cardiac surgery. Indicators of reduced performance, such as lower blood pressure and lower oxygen delivery, were lessened in association with the administration of the membrane protecting poloxamer 188. Poloxamer 188 was also associated with potentially beneficial changes in membrane protein expression, reduced capillary leakage, and less hemodilution.