Long-term effectiveness and safety of edoxaban in patients with atrial fibrillation: 4-year data from the ETNA-AF-Europe study.

BACKGROUND: To assess long-term effectiveness and safety of edoxaban in Europe. METHODS AND RESULTS: ETNA-AF-Europe, a prospective, multinational, multi-centre, post-authorisation, observational study was conducted in agreement with the European Medicines Agency. The primary and secondary objectives assessed real-world safety (including bleeding and deaths) and effectiveness (including stroke, systemic embolic events and clinical edoxaban use), respectively. Median (interquartile range) age of the 13,164 patients was 75.0 (68.0-80.0) years; CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores were 3.0 (2.0-4.0) and 2.0 (1.0-2.0), respectively. Follow-up duration was 3.98 (3.21-4.05) years. Patients on edoxaban 30 mg (n = 3042) at baseline were older (80.0 vs 73.0 years), more likely assessed as frail by investigators (27.0% vs 6.6%) and had more comorbidities than those on edoxaban 60 mg (n = 9617; missing dosing information for n = 505). Annualised event rates of all-cause and cardiovascular death in the overall population, edoxaban 60 mg and edoxaban 30 mg groups were 4.1%, 2.8% and 8.4%, and 1.0%, 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. Annualised rates of stroke were relatively constant throughout the follow-up, transient ischaemic attack and systemic embolism were < 1% in the overall population. Rates of any major and major gastrointestinal bleeding were low, with slightly higher rates for edoxaban 30 vs 60 mg group. Intracranial haemorrhage was uncommon (0.2%). CONCLUSIONS: In European patients with AF, long-term therapy with edoxaban is associated with low and relatively constant annualised rates of stroke and major bleeding. Differences in outcomes between the two approved doses are attributable to differences in clinical characteristics.

Behavioral Science: Enhancing Our Approach to the Development of Effective Additional Risk Minimization Strategies.

Additional risk minimization strategies may be required to assure a positive benefit-risk balance for some therapeutic products associated with serious adverse drug reactions/risks of use, without which these products may be otherwise unavailable to patients. The goals of risk minimization strategies are often fundamentally to influence the behavior of healthcare professionals (HCPs) and/or patients and can include appropriate patient selection, provision of education and counselling, appropriate medication use, adverse drug reaction monitoring, and adoption of other elements to assure safe use, such as pregnancy prevention. Current approaches to additional risk minimization strategy development rely heavily on information provision, without full consideration of the contextual factors and multi-level influences on patient and HCP behaviors that impact adoption and long-term adherence to these interventions. Application of evidence-based behavioral science methods are urgently needed to improve the quality and effectiveness of these strategies. Evidence from the fields of adherence, health promotion, and drug utilization research underscores the value and necessity for using established behavioral science frameworks and methods if we are to achieve clinical safety goals for patients. The current paper aims to enhance additional risk minimization strategy development and effectiveness by considering how a behavioral science approach can be applied, drawing from evidence in understanding of engagement with pharmaceutical medicines as well as wider public health interventions for patients and HCPs.

Development of delivery indicators and delivery enablers for cardiovascular disease in the UK: a modified Delphi study.

INTRODUCTION: Standards to define and measure quality in healthcare for cardiovascular disease risk reduction and secondary prevention are available, but there is a paucity of indicators that could serve as facilitators of structural change at a system level. This research study aimed to develop a range of delivery indicators to help cardiac clinical networks assess delivery of and progress towards cardiovascular disease objectives. METHODS: This study used an adapted version of the European Society of Cardiology's four-step process for the development of quality indicators. The four steps in this study were as follows: identify critical factors of enablement, construct a list of candidate indicators, select a final set of indicators and assess availability of national data for each indicator. In this iterative process, a core project group of six members was supported by a wider review group of 21 people from the National Health Service (NHS) clinical and management personnel database. RESULTS: The core project group identified six relevant cardiovascular disease priorities in the NHS Long Term Plan and used an iterative process to identify 21 critical factors that impact on their implementation. A total of 57 potential indicators that could be measures of implementation were developed. The core project group agreed on a set of 38 candidate indicators that were circulated to the review group for rating. Based on these scores, the core project group excluded 5 indicators to arrive at a final set of 33 delivery indicators. National datasets were available for 22 of the final indicators, which were designated as delivery indicators. The remaining 11, for which national datasets were not available but locally available datasets could be used, were designated as delivery enablers. CONCLUSION: The suite of delivery indicators and delivery enablers for cardiovascular disease could allow a more focused evaluation of factors that impact on delivery of healthcare for cardiovascular disease.

Nebulized Recombinant Tissue Plasminogen Activator (rt-PA) for Acute COVID-19-Induced Respiratory Failure: An Exploratory Proof-of-Concept Trial.

Acute lung injury in COVID-19 results in diffuse alveolar damage with disruption of the alveolar-capillary barrier, coagulation activation, alveolar fibrin deposition and pulmonary capillary thrombi. Nebulized recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) has the potential to facilitate localized thrombolysis in the alveolar compartment and improve oxygenation. In this proof-of-concept safety study, adults with COVID-19-induced respiratory failure and a <300 mmHg PaO2/FiO2 (P/F) ratio requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS) received nebulized rt-PA in two cohorts (C1 and C2), alongside standard of care, between 23 April-30 July 2020 and 21 January-19 February 2021, respectively. Matched historical controls (MHC; n = 18) were used in C1 to explore efficacy. Safety co-primary endpoints were treatment-related bleeds and <1.0-1.5 g/L fibrinogen reduction. A variable dosing strategy with clinical efficacy endpoint and minimal safety concerns was determined in C1 for use in C2; patients were stratified by ventilation type to receive 40-60 mg rt-PA daily for ≤14 days. Nine patients in C1 (IMV, 6/9; NIRS, 3/9) and 26 in C2 (IMV, 12/26; NIRS, 14/26) received nebulized rt-PA for a mean (SD) of 6.7 (4.6) and 9.1(4.6) days, respectively. Four bleeds (one severe, three mild) in three patients were considered treatment related. There were no significant fibrinogen reductions. Greater improvements in mean P/F ratio from baseline to study end were observed in C1 compared with MHC (C1; 154 to 299 vs. MHC; 154 to 212). In C2, there was no difference in the baseline P/F ratio of NIRS and IMV patients. However, a larger improvement in the P/F ratio occurred in NIRS patients (NIRS; 126 to 240 vs. IMV; 120 to 188) and fewer treatment days were required (NIRS; 7.86 vs. IMV; 10.5). Nebulized rt-PA appears to be well-tolerated, with a trend towards improved oxygenation, particularly in the NIRS group. Randomized clinical trials are required to demonstrate the clinical effect significance and magnitude.

Clinical outcomes by supplemental oxygen use in remdesivir-treated, hospitalised adults with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials show different effects of remdesivir on clinical outcomes relative to COVID-19 severity at hospital admission; in Europe, there are few real-world data. METHODS: A multicentre, multinational retrospective cohort study in adult patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 was conducted to understand remdesivir clinical use in different countries and to describe outcomes for patients receiving remdesivir stratified by oxygen use. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality at day 28 and hospitalisation duration. Patients were categorised by baseline disease severity: no supplemental oxygen (NSO); low flow oxygen ≤ 6 litres (l)/minute (LFO); high flow oxygen > 6 l/minute (HFO). RESULTS: Four hundred and forty-eight (448) patients (72 [16.1%] HFO; 295 [65.8%] LFO; 81 (18.1%] NSO) were included; median age was 65 years and 64% were male. Mortality was higher in patients on HFO (rate 23.6%) compared to LFO (10.2%; p = 0.001) or NSO (6.2%; p = 0.002). Duration of hospitalisation was longer in patients on HFO (13 days) compared to LFO (9 days; p = 0.003) and NSO (9 days; p = 0.021). Patients who initiated remdesivir ≥ 2 days compared to within a day of hospitalisation had a 4.2 times higher risk of death, irrespective of age, sex, comorbidities, and oxygen support at baseline. Requirement for mechanical ventilation/ECMO and readmission within 28 days of discharge was similar across groups. Remdesivir use and outcomes differed by country. CONCLUSIONS: A higher mortality rate and duration of hospitalisation was seen in remdesivir-treated COVID-19 patients on HFO compared to LFO and NSO. Initiation of remdesivir upon admission as opposed to delayed initiation has a mortality benefit. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04847622.

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment using a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker: a comparison with existing risk scores.

Aims: This study aims to evaluate the ability of a deep-learning-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) retinal biomarker, Reti-CVD, to identify individuals with intermediate- and high-risk for CVD. Methods and results: We defined the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), QRISK3, and modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Reti-CVD's prediction was compared to the number of individuals identified as intermediate- and high-risk according to standard CVD risk assessment tools, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated to assess the results. In the UK Biobank, among 48 260 participants, 20 643 (42.8%) and 7192 (14.9%) were classified into the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to PCE, and QRISK3, respectively. In the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases study, among 6810 participants, 3799 (55.8%) were classified as intermediate- and high-risk group according to modified FRS. Reti-CVD identified PCE-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.7%, 87.6%, 86.5%, and 84.0%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified QRISK3-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.6%, 85.5%, 49.9%, and 96.6%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the modified FRS with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.1%, 80.6%, 76.4%, and 85.5%, respectively. Conclusion: The retinal photograph biomarker (Reti-CVD) was able to identify individuals with intermediate and high-risk for CVD, in accordance with existing risk assessment tools.

Validation of a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker (Reti-CVD) in the prediction of cardiovascular disease: data from UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Currently in the United Kingdom, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is based on the QRISK3 score, in which 10% 10-year CVD risk indicates clinical intervention. However, this benchmark has limited efficacy in clinical practice and the need for a more simple, non-invasive risk stratification tool is necessary. Retinal photography is becoming increasingly acceptable as a non-invasive imaging tool for CVD. Previously, we developed a novel CVD risk stratification system based on retinal photographs predicting future CVD risk. This study aims to further validate our biomarker, Reti-CVD, (1) to detect risk group of ≥ 10% in 10-year CVD risk and (2) enhance risk assessment in individuals with QRISK3 of 7.5-10% (termed as borderline-QRISK3 group) using the UK Biobank. METHODS: Reti-CVD scores were calculated and stratified into three risk groups based on optimized cut-off values from the UK Biobank. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to evaluate the ability of Reti-CVD to predict CVD events in the general population. C-statistics was used to assess the prognostic value of adding Reti-CVD to QRISK3 in borderline-QRISK3 group and three vulnerable subgroups. RESULTS: Among 48,260 participants with no history of CVD, 6.3% had CVD events during the 11-year follow-up. Reti-CVD was associated with an increased risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.52) with a 13.1% (95% CI, 11.7-14.6%) 10-year CVD risk in Reti-CVD-high-risk group. The 10-year CVD risk of the borderline-QRISK3 group was greater than 10% in Reti-CVD-high-risk group (11.5% in non-statin cohort [n = 45,473], 11.5% in stage 1 hypertension cohort [n = 11,966], and 14.2% in middle-aged cohort [n = 38,941]). C statistics increased by 0.014 (0.010-0.017) in non-statin cohort, 0.013 (0.007-0.019) in stage 1 hypertension cohort, and 0.023 (0.018-0.029) in middle-aged cohort for CVD event prediction after adding Reti-CVD to QRISK3. CONCLUSIONS: Reti-CVD has the potential to identify individuals with ≥ 10% 10-year CVD risk who are likely to benefit from earlier preventative CVD interventions. For borderline-QRISK3 individuals with 10-year CVD risk between 7.5 and 10%, Reti-CVD could be used as a risk enhancer tool to help improve discernment accuracy, especially in adult groups that may be pre-disposed to CVD.

Shining a light on an additional clinical burden: work-related digital communication survey study - COVID-19 impact on NHS staff wellbeing.

Work-related communication volume within the United Kingdom's National Health Service (NHS) has had little systematic research previously. The impact of communication volume on work-life balance of healthcare staff in the NHS is also not known and has not been an area of focus or governance. COVID-19 led to a shift to non-physical work, with greater reliance on digital communication for clinical decision making. We sought to elucidate the relationship between communication, work-life balance, and COVID-19. An online survey was conducted to assess the platforms used to communicate professionally, the volume of and time spent on work-related communications, how this has changed from before to during COVID-19, and the effect on work-life balance. A total of 3047 healthcare staff provided consent and evaluable data. Emails were reported as the most frequently used communication tool, and the majority of staff asked, reported increased work-related communications due to COVID-19. Staff estimated receiving 14 emails on an average day before COVID-19. During the pandemic, staff estimated getting approximately 17 emails on an average day and 29 emails on a busy day. Work communications reportedly took up increased amounts of family and home time during COVID-19. A large proportion (36%) of staff were unable to switch off from work-related communications already before COVID-19, worsening (57%) during the pandemic. Work-related digital communication is a vital component of working in the NHS. We provide the first detailed data on the types, volume, and impact of such communication on NHS staff during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic levels. We found that 82% of staff support the need for NHS guidance on work-related communications to help manage overload, protect emotional wellbeing, and increase resilience. Further work is urgently needed in this area to tackle the negative impact of communication technologies (technostress) on work-life balance to reduce staff stress, burnout, and turnover or early retirement of some staff.

Edoxaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation and age-adjusted predictors of clinical outcomes in routine clinical care.

AIMS: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulation still suffer from cardiovascular complications including cardiovascular death, stroke, and major bleeding. To identify risk factors for predicting stroke and bleeding outcomes in anticoagulated patients, we assessed 2-year outcomes in patients with AF treated with edoxaban in routine care. We also report the age-adjusted risk predictors of clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Edoxaban Treatment in Routine Clinical Practice for Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (ETNA-AF) Europe (NCT02944019) is a prospective, multi-centre, post-authorisation, observational study with an overall 4-year follow-up conducted in 825 centres enrolling edoxaban-treated patients in 10 European countries. Of the 13 133 patients with AF (mean age: 73.6 ± 9.5 years), 5682 (43.3%) were female. At the 2-year follow-up, 9017/13 133 patients were still on edoxaban; 1830 discontinued treatment including 937 who died (annualised event rate of all-cause death was 3.87%). 518 (2.14%) patients died of cardiovascular causes; 234 (0.97%) experienced major bleeding and 168 (0.70%) experienced stroke or systemic embolic events (SEE). Intracranial haemorrhage was noted in 49 patients (0.20%). History of transient ischaemic attack (TIA) at baseline was the strongest predictor of ischaemic stroke or SEE (Wald χ2: 73.63; P < 0.0001). Low kidney function at baseline was the strongest predictor of major bleeding (Wald χ2: 30.68; P < 0.0001). History of heart failure (HF) was the strongest predictor of all-cause (Wald χ2: 146.99; P < 0.0001) and cardiovascular death (Wald χ2: 100.38; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Patients treated with edoxaban in ETNA-AF-Europe reported low 2-year event rates in unselected AF patients. Prior stroke, reduced kidney function, and HF identify patients at high risk of stroke, bleeding and all-cause/cardiovascular death, respectively.

Perceived vs. objective frailty in patients with atrial fibrillation and impact on anticoagulant dosing: an ETNA-AF-Europe sub-analysis.

AIMS: Frailty is common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), with possible impact on therapies and outcomes. However, definitions of frailty are variable, and may not overlap with frailty perception among physicians. We evaluated the prevalence of frailty as perceived by enrolling physicians in the Edoxaban Treatment in Routine Clinical Practice for Patients With Non-Valvular AF (ETNA-AF)-Europe registry (NCT02944019), and compared it with an objective frailty assessment. METHODS AND RESULTS: ETNA-AF-Europe is a prospective, multi-centre, post-authorization, observational study. There we assessed the presence of frailty according to (i) a binary subjective investigators' judgement and (ii) an objective measure, the Modified Frailty Index. Baseline data on frailty were available in 13 621/13 980 patients. Prevalence of perceived frailty was 10.6%, with high variability among participating countries and healthcare settings (range 5.9-19.6%). Conversely, only 5.0% of patients had objective frailty, with minimal variability (range 4.5-6.7%); and only <1% of patients were identified as frail by both approaches. Compared with non-frailty-perceived, perceived frail patients were older, more frequently female, and with lower body weight; conversely, objectively frail patients had more comorbidities. Non-recommended edoxaban dose regimens were more frequently prescribed in both frail patient categories. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' perception of frailty in AF patients is variable, mainly driven by age, sex, and weight, and quite different compared with the results of an objective frailty assessment. Whatever the approach, frailty appears to be associated with non-recommended anticoagulant dosages. Whether this apparent inappropriateness influences hard outcomes remains to be assessed.

Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIMS: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths. CONCLUSION: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.

Edoxaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation in routine clinical care: 1-year follow-up of the prospective observational ETNA-AF-Europe study.

AIMS: Non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants are safe and effective for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Data on the safety and efficacy of edoxaban in routine care are limited in Europe. We report 1-year outcomes in patients with AF treated with edoxaban in routine care. METHODS AND RESULTS: ETNA-AF-Europe is a prospective, multicentre, post-authorization, observational study enrolling patients treated with edoxaban in 10 European countries, the design of which was agreed with the European Medicines Agency as part of edoxaban's post-approval safety plan. Altogether 13 092 patients in 852 sites completed the 1-year follow-up [mean age: 73.6 ± 9.5 years; 57% male, mean follow-up: 352 ± 49 days (median: 366 days)]. Most patients had associated comorbidities (mean CHA2DS2-VASc score: 3.1 ± 1.4). Stroke or systemic embolism was reported in 103 patients (annualized event rate: 0.82%/year), and major bleeding events were reported in 132 patients (1.05%/year). Rates of intracranial haemorrhage were low [30 patients (0.24%/year)]. Death occurred in 442 patients (3.50%/year); cardiovascular (CV) death occurred in 206 patients (1.63%/year). The approved dosing of edoxaban was chosen in 83%. All-cause and CV mortality were higher in patients receiving edoxaban 30 mg vs. 60 mg, in line with the higher age and more frequent comorbidities of the 30 mg group. Major bleeding was also numerically more common in patients receiving edoxaban 30 mg vs. 60 mg. CONCLUSION: The rates of stroke, systemic embolism, and major bleeding are low in this large unselected cohort of high-risk AF patients routinely treated with edoxaban.

Real-world data on the incidence, mortality, and cost of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding events among non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients in England.

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: Several novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are licensed for atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment in the United Kingdom. We describe the incidence and mortality from ischaemic stroke and major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients in England, including treatment patterns before/following introduction of NOACs, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and costs post-onset of these events. METHOD: Data were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data. RESULTS: Of 42 966 patients with a first AF record between 2011 and 2016, 9143 patients (21.3%) remained without AF (antiplatelets/antithrombotics) treatment post-index diagnosis. The proportion of patients receiving aspirin for ≥3 months post-index declined during the study (50.6%-5.5%), irrespective of CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, while the proportion prescribed NOACs increased (2.0%-70.1%). Rates of ischaemic stroke per 1000 patient-years (95% CI) were 9.4 (3.8-15.0) with NOACs, 10.4 (8.0-12.9) with warfarin, 20.1 (16.4-23.8) with aspirin, 21.3 (5.3-37.2) with other antiplatelets and 43.6 (39.3-47.8) in patients without AF prescription. Major bleeding occurred at a similar rate with different treatments. All-cause mortality rates were 42.8 (31.4-54.3) with NOACs, 46.3 (41.1-51.5) with warfarin, 56.5 (50.5-62.4) with aspirin, 102.2 (76.2-128.3) with other antiplatelets and 412.8 (399.6-426.0) with no AF prescription. Mean annual National Health Service healthcare costs up to 1 year post-index were lowest in patients receiving aspirin plus other antiplatelets without an event (£6152), and highest in patients with an event without AF prescriptions (£17 957). By extrapolation, national AF HRU in the United Kingdom in 2016 was estimated at £8-16 billion annually. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide temporal insights into AF treatment patterns and outcomes for NVAF patients in England and highlight the need to review higher stroke risk AF patients not receiving antiplatelet/antithrombotic prescriptions.

Ventilación no invasiva con presión positiva (CPAP o doble nivel) para el edema agudo de pulmón cardiogénico / Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (CPAP or bilevel NPPV) for cardiogenic pulmonary oedema

No disponible

Predicting atrial fibrillation in primary care using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained heart arrhythmia. However, as many cases are asymptomatic, a large proportion of patients remain undiagnosed until serious complications arise. Efficient, cost-effective detection of the undiagnosed may be supported by risk-prediction models relating patient factors to AF risk. However, there exists a need for an implementable risk model that is contemporaneous and informed by routinely collected patient data, reflecting the real-world pathology of AF. METHODS: This study sought to develop and evaluate novel and conventional statistical and machine learning models for risk-predication of AF. This was a retrospective, cohort study of adults (aged ≥30 years) without a history of AF, listed on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, from January 2006 to December 2016. Models evaluated included published risk models (Framingham, ARIC, CHARGE-AF), machine learning models, which evaluated baseline and time-updated information (neural network, LASSO, random forests, support vector machines), and Cox regression. RESULTS: Analysis of 2,994,837 individuals (3.2% AF) identified time-varying neural networks as the optimal model achieving an AUROC of 0.827 vs. 0.725, with number needed to screen of 9 vs. 13 patients at 75% sensitivity, when compared with the best existing model CHARGE-AF. The optimal model confirmed known baseline risk factors (age, previous cardiovascular disease, antihypertensive medication usage) and identified additional time-varying predictors (proximity of cardiovascular events, body mass index (both levels and changes), pulse pressure, and the frequency of blood pressure measurements). CONCLUSION: The optimal time-varying machine learning model exhibited greater predictive performance than existing AF risk models and reflected known and new patient risk factors for AF.

Real-World Associations of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Inhibitor Dose, Hyperkalemia, and Adverse Clinical Outcomes in a Cohort of Patients With New-Onset Chronic Kidney Disease or Heart Failure in the United Kingdom.

Background Dosing of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) may be modified to manage associated hyperkalemia risk; however, this approach could adversely affect cardiorenal outcomes. This study investigated real-world associations of RAASi dose, hyperkalemia, and adverse clinical outcomes in a large cohort of UK cardiorenal patients. Methods and Results This observational study included RAASi-prescribed patients with new-onset chronic kidney disease (n=100 572) or heart failure (n=13 113) first recorded between January 2006 and December 2015 in Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics databases. Odds ratios associating hyperkalemia and RAASi dose modification were estimated using logistic generalized estimating equations with normal (<5.0 mmol/L) serum potassium level as the reference category. Patients with serum potassium ≥5.0 mmol/L had higher risk of RAASi down-titration (adjusted odds ratios, chronic kidney disease: 1.79 [95% CI, 1.64-1.96]; heart failure: 1.33 [95% CI, 1.08-1.62]). Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted incident rate ratios of adverse outcomes based on total RAASi exposure (<50% and ≥50% of the guideline-recommended RAASi dose). Incidence of major adverse cardiac events and mortality was consistently higher in the lower dose group (adjusted incident rate ratios: chronic kidney disease: 5.60 [95% CI, 5.29-5.93] for mortality and 1.60 [95% CI, 1.55-1.66] for nonfatal major adverse cardiac events; heart failure: 7.34 [95% CI, 6.35-8.48] for mortality and 1.85 [95% CI, 1.71-1.99] for major adverse cardiac events). Conclusions The results of this real-world analysis highlight the potential negative impact of suboptimal RAASi dosing and the need for strategies that allow patients to be maintained on appropriate therapy, avoiding RAASi dose modification or discontinuation.

Characteristics of patients initiated on edoxaban in Europe: baseline data from edoxaban treatment in routine clinical practice for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe (ETNA-AF-Europe).

BACKGROUND: Non-vitamin K antagonist (VKA) oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have substantially improved anticoagulation therapy for prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The available routine care data have demonstrated the safety of different NOACs; however, such data for edoxaban are scarce. Here, we report baseline characteristics of 13,638 edoxaban-treated patients with AF enrolled between November 2016 and February 2018. METHODS: ETNA-AF-Europe is a multinational, multi-centre, post-authorisation, observational study conducted in 825 sites in 10 European countries. Patients will be followed up for four years. RESULTS: Overall, 13,980 patients were enrolled of which 342 patients were excluded from the analysis. Mean patient age was 73.6 years with an average creatinine clearance of 69.4 mL/min. 56.6% were male. The calculated CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED mean scores were 3.1 and 2.6, respectively. Overall, 3.3, 14.6 and 82.0% of patients had low (CHA2DS2-VASc = 0), intermediate (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1) and high (CHA2DS2-VASc≥2) risks of stroke, respectively. High-risk patients (those with prior stroke, prior major bleeding, prior intracranial bleed or CHA2DS2-VASc ≥4) comprised 38.4% of the overall population. For 75.1% of patients edoxaban was their first anticoagulant prescription, whilst 16.9% switched from a VKA and 8.0% from another NOAC. A total of 23.4% of patients in ETNA-AF-Europe received the reduced dose of edoxaban 30 mg. Overall, 83.8% of patients received an edoxaban dose in line with the criteria outlined in the label. CONCLUSION: Edoxaban was predominantly initiated in older, often anticoagulation-naïve, unselected European patients with AF, with a good overall adherence to the approved label. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02944019; Date of registration: October 24, 2016.