Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway.

Globally, climate change greatly impacts the production of major crops, and there have been many attempts to model future yields under warming scenarios in recent years. However, projections of future yields may not be generalisable to all crop growing regions, particularly those with diverse topography and bioclimates. In this study, we demonstrate this by evaluating the links between changes in temperature and precipitation and changes in wheat, barley, and potato yields at the county-level during 1980-2019 in Norway, a Nordic country with a range of climates across a relatively small spatial scale. The results show that the impacts of climate variables on yield vary widely by county, and that for some crops, the strength and direction of the link depends on underlying local bioclimate. In addition, our analysis demonstrates the need for some counties to focus on weather changes during specific crucial months corresponding with certain crop growth stages. Furthermore, due to the local climatic conditions and varying projected climate changes, different production opportunities are likely to occur in each county.

Good-bye to tropical alpine plant giants under warmer climates? Loss of range and genetic diversity in Lobelia rhynchopetalum.

The main aim of this paper is to address consequences of climate warming on loss of habitat and genetic diversity in the enigmatic tropical alpine giant rosette plants using the Ethiopian endemic Lobelia rhynchopetalum as a model. We modeled the habitat suitability of L. rhynchopetalum and assessed how its range is affected under two climate models and four emission scenarios. We used three statistical algorithms calibrated to represent two different complexity levels of the response. We analyzed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms and assessed the impact of the projected range loss. Under all model and scenario combinations and consistent across algorithms and complexity levels, this afro-alpine flagship species faces massive range reduction. Only 3.4% of its habitat seems to remain suitable on average by 2,080, resulting in loss of 82% (CI 75%-87%) of its genetic diversity. The remaining suitable habitat is projected to be fragmented among and reduced to four mountain peaks, further deteriorating the probability of long-term sustainability of viable populations. Because of the similar morphological and physiological traits developed through convergent evolution by tropical alpine giant rosette plants in response to diurnal freeze-thaw cycles, they most likely respond to climate change in a similar way as our study species. We conclude that specialized high-alpine giant rosette plants, such as L. rhynchopetalum, are likely to face very high risk of extinction following climate warming.

DNA Metabarcoding Reveals Diet Overlap between the Endangered Walia Ibex and Domestic Goats - Implications for Conservation.

Human population expansion and associated degradation of the habitat of many wildlife species cause loss of biodiversity and species extinctions. The small Simen Mountains National Park in Ethiopia is one of the last strongholds for the preservation of a number of afro-alpine mammals, plants and birds, and it is home to the rare endemic Walia ibex, Capra walie. The narrow distribution range of this species as well as potential competition for resources with livestock, especially with domestic goat, Capra hircus, may compromise its future survival. Based on a curated afro-alpine taxonomic reference library constructed for plant taxon identification, we investigated the diet of the Walia ibex and addressed the dietary overlap with domestic goat using DNA metabarcoding of faecal samples. Faeces of both species were collected from different localities in the National Park. We show that both species are browsers, with forbs, shrubs and trees comprising the largest proportion of their diet, supplemented by grasses. There was a considerable overlap in dietary preferences. Several of the preferred diet items of the Walia ibex (Alchemilla sp., Hypericum revolutum, Erica arborea and Rumex sp.) were also among the most preferred diet items of the domestic goat. These results indicate that there is potential for competition between the two species, especially during the dry season, when resources are limited. Our findings, in combination with the expected increase in domestic herbivores, suggest that management plans should consider the potential threat posed by domestic goats to ensure future survival of the endangered Walia ibex.

Genetic roadmap of the Arctic: plant dispersal highways, traffic barriers and capitals of diversity.

We provide the first comparative multispecies analysis of spatial genetic structure and diversity in the circumpolar Arctic using a common strategy for sampling and genetic analyses. We aimed to identify and explain potential general patterns of genetic discontinuity/connectivity and diversity, and to compare our findings with previously published hypotheses. We collected and analyzed 7707 samples of 17 widespread arctic-alpine plant species for amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). Genetic structure, diversity and distinctiveness were analyzed for each species, and extrapolated to cover the geographic range of each species. The resulting maps were overlaid to produce metamaps. The Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, the Greenlandic ice cap, the Urals, and lowland areas between southern mountain ranges and the Arctic were the strongest barriers against gene flow. Diversity was highest in Beringia and gradually decreased into formerly glaciated areas. The highest degrees of distinctiveness were observed in Siberia. We conclude that large-scale general patterns exist in the Arctic, shaped by the Pleistocene glaciations combined with long-standing physical barriers against gene flow. Beringia served as both refugium and source for interglacial (re)colonization, whereas areas further west in Siberia served as refugia, but less as sources for (re)colonization.

Spatial and temporal variability in epilithic biofilm bacterial communities along an upland river gradient.

Riverine biofilms remain one of the least-studied habitats despite the significant increase in the examination of aquatic microbial communities in recent years. In this study, the dynamics of epilithic biofilm communities native on rocks from a low-order upland stream were examined over a period of 3 years. Spatial and temporal variations in bacterial communities were assessed using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism, based on analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. In total, 108 epilithic biofilm samples were analysed and 170 different ribotypes were detected. A strong temporal gradient in ribotype composition was noticed, especially between samples collected in 2001 and those collected in 2002 and 2003, most likely reflecting interannual differences in weather conditions, such as temperature. A spatial gradient in ribotype composition, from upstream sites to the low-lying sites, was also evident and interpreted as an environmental variation gradient along the river course. Distinct biofilm communities consistently occurred at the first site along the river, which was significantly correlated to low pH. Temporal factors explained the highest degree of variation within the epilithic biofilms. Recurrent blooms of certain bacteria were noted within the system. Phylogenetic relationships of bacteria at one point in the river were determined using a cloning and sequencing approach, with Alphaproteobacteria dominating the community, followed by Cyanobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Betaproteobacteria.

Extrinsic and intrinsic controls of zooplankton diversity in lakes.

Pelagic crustacean zooplankton were collected from 336 Norwegian lakes covering a wide range of latitude, altitude, lake area, mean depth, production (as chlorophyll a), and fish community structure. Mean zooplankton species richness during the ice-free season was generally low at high latitudes and altitudes. Further, lower species richness was recorded in western lakes, possibly reflecting constraints on migration and dispersal. However, despite obvious spatial limitations, geographic boundaries were only weak predictors of mean zooplankton richness. Similarly, lake surface area did not contribute positively to mean richness such as seen in other ecosystem surveys. Rather, intrinsic factors such as primary production and fish community (planktivore) structure were identified by regression analysis as the major predictors of zooplankton diversity, while a positive correlation was observed between species richness and total zooplankton biomass. However, in spite of a large number of variables included in this study, the predictive power of multiple regression models was modest (<50% variance explained), pointing to a major role for within-lake properties, as yet unidentified intrinsic forces, stochasticity, or dispersal as constraints on zooplankton diversity in these lakes.