Hemorrhage Sites and Mitigation Strategies After Pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Importance: Postpancreatectomy hemorrhage is an uncommon but highly morbid complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy. Clinical evidence often draws suspicion to the gastroduodenal artery stump, even without a clear source. Objective: To determine the frequency of gastroduodenal artery bleeding compared to other sites and the results of mitigation strategies. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study involved a retrospective analysis of data for consecutive patients who had pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2011 to 2021 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK) and Thomas Jefferson University Hospital (TJUH). Exposures: Demographic, perioperative, and disease-related variables. Main Outcomes and Measures: The incidence, location, treatment, and outcomes of primary (initial) and secondary (recurrent) hemorrhage requiring invasive intervention were analyzed. Imaging studies were re-reviewed by interventional radiologists to confirm sites. Results: Inclusion criteria were met by 3040 patients (n = 1761 MSK, n = 1279 TJUH). Patients from both institutions were similar in age (median [IQR] age at MSK, 67 [59-74] years, and at TJUH, 68 [60-75] years) and sex (at MSK, 814 female [46.5%] and 947 male [53.8%], and at TJUH, 623 [48.7%] and 623 male [51.3%]). Primary hemorrhage occurred in 90 patients (3.0%), of which the gastroduodenal artery was the source in 15 (16.7%), unidentified sites in 24 (26.7%), and non-gastroduodenal artery sites in 51 (56.7%). Secondary hemorrhage occurred in 23 patients; in 4 (17.4%), the gastroduodenal artery was the source. Of all hemorrhage events (n = 117), the gastroduodenal artery was the source in 19 (16.2%, 0.63% incidence in all pancreaticoduodenectomies). Gastroduodenal artery hemorrhage was more often associated with soft gland texture (14 [93.3%] vs 41 [62.1%]; P = .02) and later presentation (median [IQR], 21 [15-26] vs 10 days [5-18]; P = .002). Twenty-three patients underwent empirical gastroduodenal artery embolization or stent placement, 7 (30.4%) of whom subsequently experienced secondary hemorrhage. Twenty percent of all gastroduodenal artery embolizations/stents (8/40 patients), including 13% (3/13 patients) of empirical treatments, were associated with significant morbidity (7 hepatic infarction, 4 biliary stricture), with a 90-day mortality rate of 38.5% (n = 5) for patients with these complications vs 7.8% without (n = 6; P = .008). Ninety-day mortality was 12.2% (n = 11) for patients with hemorrhage (3 patients [20%] with primary gastroduodenal vs 8 [10.7%] for all others; P = .38) compared with 2% (n = 59) for patients without hemorrhage. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage was uncommon and the spectrum was broad, with the gastroduodenal artery responsible for a minority of bleeding events. Empirical gastroduodenal artery embolization/stent without obvious sequelae of recent hemorrhage was associated with significant morbidity and rebleeding and should not be routine practice. Successful treatment of postpancreatectomy hemorrhage requires careful assessment of all potential sources, even after gastroduodenal artery mitigation.

Hepatocytes coordinate immune evasion in cancer via release of serum amyloid A proteins.

T cell infiltration into tumors is a favorable prognostic feature, but most solid tumors lack productive T cell responses. Mechanisms that coordinate T cell exclusion are incompletely understood. Here we identify hepatocyte activation via interleukin-6/STAT3 and secretion of serum amyloid A (SAA) proteins 1 and 2 as important regulators of T cell surveillance of extrahepatic tumors. Loss of STAT3 in hepatocytes or SAA remodeled the tumor microenvironment with infiltration by CD8+ T cells, while interleukin-6 overexpression in hepatocytes and SAA signaling via Toll-like receptor 2 reduced the number of intratumoral dendritic cells and, in doing so, inhibited T cell tumor infiltration. Genetic ablation of SAA enhanced survival after tumor resection in a T cell-dependent manner. Likewise, in individuals with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, long-term survivors after surgery demonstrated lower serum SAA levels than short-term survivors. Taken together, these data define a fundamental link between liver and tumor immunobiology wherein hepatocytes govern productive T cell surveillance in cancer.

Concordance in Oncogenic Alterations Between the Primary Tumor and Advanced Disease: Insights Into the Heterogeneity of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

PURPOSE: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA) is characterized by significant phenotypic and clinical heterogeneities and poor response to systemic therapy, potentially related to underlying heterogeneity in oncogenic alterations. We aimed to characterize the genomic heterogeneity between primary tumors and advanced disease in patients with ICCA. METHODS: Biopsy-proven CCA specimens (primary tumor and paired advanced disease [metastatic disease, progressive disease on systemic therapy, or postoperative recurrence]) from two institutions were subjected to targeted next-generation sequencing. Overall concordance (oncogenic driver mutations, copy number alterations, and fusion events) and mutational concordance (only oncogenic mutations) were compared across paired samples. A subgroup analysis was performed on the basis of exposure to systemic therapy. Patients with extrahepatic CCA (ECCA) were included as a comparison group. RESULTS: Sample pairs from 65 patients with ICCA (n = 54) and ECCA (n = 11) were analyzed. The median time between sample collection was 19.6 months (range, 2.7-122.9). For the entire cohort, the overall oncogenic concordance was 49% and the mutational concordance was 62% between primary and advanced disease samples. Subgroup analyses of ICCA and ECCA revealed overall/mutational concordance rates of 47%/58% and 60%/84%, respectively. Oncogenic concordance was similarly low for pairs exposed to systemic therapy between sample collections (n = 50, 53% overall, 68% mutational). In patients treated with targeted therapy for IDH1/2 alterations (n = 6) or FGFR2 fusions (n = 3), there was 100% concordance between the primary and advanced disease specimens. In two patients, FGFR2 (n = 1) and IDH1 (n = 1) alterations were detected de novo in the advanced disease specimens. CONCLUSION: The results reflect a high degree of heterogeneity in ICCA and argue for reassessment of the dominant driver mutations with change in disease status.

Risk Factors for Progression in Patients Undergoing Surveillance for Pancreatic Cysts.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors associated with the progression of pancreatic cysts in patients undergoing surveillance. BACKGROUND: Previous studies of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) rely on surgical series to determine malignancy risk and have inconsistently identified characteristics associated with IPMN progression. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of 2197 patients presenting with imaging concerning for IPMN from 2010 to 2019 at a single institution. Cyst progression was defined as resection or pancreatic cancer development. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 84 months from the presentation. The median age was 66 years, and 62% were female. Ten percent had a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer, and 3.2% had a germline mutation or genetic syndrome associated with an increased risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Cumulative incidence of progression was 17.8% and 20.0% at 12 and 60 months postpresentation, respectively. Surgical pathology for 417 resected cases showed noninvasive IPMN in 39% of cases and PDAC with or without associated IPMN in 20%. Only 18 patients developed PDAC after 6 months of surveillance (0.8%). On multivariable analysis, symptomatic disease [hazard ratio (HR)=1.58; 95% CI: 1.25-2.01], current smoker status (HR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.16-2.15), cyst size (HR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.20-1.33), main duct dilation (HR=3.17; 95% CI: 2.44-4.11), and solid components (HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.34-2.66) were associated with progression. CONCLUSIONS: Worrisome features on imaging at presentation, current smoker status, and symptomatic presentation are associated with IPMN progression. Most patients progressed within the first year of presentation to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC). Further investigation is necessary to develop personalized cyst surveillance strategies.

Early-Onset Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: Clinical Presentation, Pathology Features, and Oncological Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Early-Onset (EO) pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PanNET) is a rare disease, but whether it is clinically different from late-onset (LO) PanNET is unknown. Our study aimed to evaluate clinical differences and disease outcomes between EO-PanNET and LO-PanNET and to compare sporadic EO-PanNET with those with a hereditary syndrome. METHODS: Patients with localized PanNET who underwent pancreatectomy at Memorial Sloan Kettering between 2000 and 2017 were identified. Those with metastatic disease and poorly differentiated tumors were excluded. EO-PanNET was defined as <50 and LO-PanNET >50 years of age at the time of diagnosis. Family history and clinical and pathology characteristics were recorded. RESULTS: Overall 383 patients were included, 107 (27.9%) with EO-PanNET. Compared with LO-PanNET, EO-PanNET were more likely to have a hereditary syndrome (2.2% vs. 16%, P <0.001) but had similar pathology features such as tumor grade ( P =0.6), size (2.2 Vs. 2.3 cm, P =0.5) and stageof disease ( P =0.8). Among patients with EO-PanNET, those with hereditary syndrome had more frequently a multifocal disease (65% vs. 3.3%, P <0.001). With a median follow-up of 70 months (range 0-238), the 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence after curative surgery was 19% (95% CI 12%-28%) and 17% (95% CI 13%-23%), in EO-PanNET and LO-PanNET ( P =0.3). Five-year disease-specific survival was 99% (95% CI 98%-100%) with no difference with respect to PanNET onset time ( P =0.26). CONCLUSIONS: In this surgical cohort, we found that EO-PanNET is associated with hereditary syndromes but has pathologic characteristics and oncological outcomes similar to LO-PanNET. These findings suggest that patients with EO-PanNET can be managed similarly to those with LO-PanNET.

Gemcitabine with Cisplatin Versus Hepatic Arterial Infusion Pump Chemotherapy for Liver-Confined Unresectable Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A post-hoc analysis of ABC trials included 34 patients with liver-confined unresectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) who received systemic chemotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin (gem-cis). The median overall survival (OS) was 16.7 months and the 3-year OS was 2.8%. The aim of this study was to compare patients treated with systemic gem-cis versus hepatic arterial infusion pump (HAIP) chemotherapy for liver-confined unresectable iCCA. METHODS: We retrospectively collected consecutive patients with liver-confined unresectable iCCA who received gem-cis in two centers in the Netherlands to compare with consecutive patients who received HAIP chemotherapy with or without systemic chemotherapy in Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. RESULTS: In total, 268 patients with liver-confined unresectable iCCA were included; 76 received gem-cis and 192 received HAIP chemotherapy. In the gem-cis group 42 patients (55.3%) had multifocal disease compared with 141 patients (73.4%) in the HAIP group (p = 0.023). Median OS for gem-cis was 11.8 months versus 27.7 months for HAIP chemotherapy (p < 0.001). OS at 3 years was 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-13.6%) in the gem-cis group versus 34.3% (95% CI 28.1-41.8%) in the HAIP chemotherapy group. After adjusting for male gender, performance status, baseline hepatobiliary disease, and multifocal disease, the hazard ratio (HR) for HAIP chemotherapy was 0.27 (95% CI 0.19-0.39). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed the results from the ABC trials that survival beyond 3 years is rare for patients with liver-confined unresectable iCCA treated with palliative gem-cis alone. With HAIP chemotherapy, one in three patients was alive at 3 years.

Surgical Margin of Resected Colorectal Liver Metastases:: How Accurate is Surgeon Prediction?

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the surgeon's ability to accurately predict the margin following resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The decision to resect CRLM is based on the surgeon's ability to predict tumor free resection margins. However, to date, no study has evaluated the accuracy of surgeon margin prediction. METHODS: In this single-institution prospective study, the operating attending and fellow independently completed a preoperative and postoperative questionnaire describing their expected resection margin in 100 consecutive cases (200 assessments) of colorectal liver metastasis resections. In cases with multiple metastases, the closest margin was assessed as the margin of interest for the primary outcome. Surgeon assessments were compared to the gold-standard histopathologic assessment. RESULTS: After excluding aborted cases, 190 preoperative and 190 postoperative assessments from 95 cases were included in the analysis. The pathologic margin was noted to be wide (≥1 cm), 1 mm to 1 cm, narrow (<1 mm), and positive in 28 (29.5%), 55 (57.9%), 5 (5.3%), and 7 (7.4%) cases, respectively. The 88 cases with negative margins were all predicted to be negative. None of the cases with positive margins were predicted to be positive. Ninety-one (48%) preoperative and 104 (55%) postoperative predictions were accurate. The sensitivity of predicting a margin <1 mm was 8.3% preoperatively and 16.7% postoperatively. The positive predictive value for preoperative and postoperative predictions of margin <1 mm was 18.2% and 26.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons are inaccurate at predicting positive and close surgical margins following resection of CRLM. A predicted close margin should not necessarily preclude resection.

Combined Hepatic Arterial Infusion Pump and Systemic Chemotherapy in the Modern Era for Chemotherapy-Naive Patients with Unresectable Colorectal Liver Metastases.

PURPOSE: Chemotherapy-naive patients with unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) have been the best responders to hepatic arterial infusion (HAI) therapy. The current treatment paradigm has drifted away from HAI in the first-line setting. We aimed to analyze outcomes of combined first-line systemic therapy with HAI therapy (HAI+SYS) in the modern era. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of consecutive chemotherapy-naive patients with unresectable CRLM who received HAI+SYS between 2003 and 2019. Patients were selected from a prospectively maintained database. Outcomes included radiological response rate, conversion to resection (CTR) rate, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Fifty-eight chemotherapy-naive patients were identified out of 546 patients with unresectable CRLM managed with HAI. After induction treatment, 4 patients (7%) had a complete radiological response, including two durable responses. In total, 32 patients (55%) underwent CTR. CTR or complete response without resection was achieved after seven cycles of systemic therapy and four cycles of HAI therapy. Median OS for the whole cohort was 53.0 months (95% confidence interval 23.0-82.9). Three- and 5-year OS in patients who achieved CTR or complete response versus patients who did not was 88% and 72% versus 27% and 0% respectively. Of patients who underwent CTR, complete and major pathological response (no and <10% viable tumor cells, respectively) was observed in 7 (22%) and 12 patients (38%). CONCLUSIONS: Combined HAI+SYS in chemotherapy-naive patients resulted in durable and substantial response in a large proportion of patients. Nearly two-thirds of patients achieved a complete response or proceeded to conversion surgery, which was associated with prolonged survival.

Rates and Patterns of Recurrence After Microwave Ablation of Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Per Lesion Analysis of 416 Tumors in the Era of 2.45 GHz Generators.

BACKGROUND: For some patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs), surgical resection of all visible disease can lead to long-term survival and even cure. When complete resection is not feasible, microwave ablation (MWA) can help achieve hepatic disease control. As modern 2.45-GHz MWA generators gain popularity, the characteristics of tumors most likely to benefit from this method remain unclear. This study aimed to evaluate local recurrence (LR) rates, patterns of recurrence, and factors contributing to treatment failure after 2.45-GHz MWA of CRLM. METHODS: Patients with CRLM who underwent operative 2.45-GHz MWA between 2011 and 2019 were identified in a prospectively maintained single-institution database. Recurrence outcomes were ascertained for each lesion by imaging review. Factors associated with LR were analyzed. RESULTS: The study enrolled 184 patients bearing 416 ablated tumors. Most of the patients (65.8%) had high clinical risk scores (3-5), and 165 (90%) underwent concurrent liver resection. The median tumor size was 10 mm. After a median follow-up period of 28.8 months, LR was observed in 45 tumors, and the cumulative incidence of LR at 24 months was 10.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.0-14.3%]. In 7%, LR was the first recurrence site, often combined with recurrence elsewhere. The cumulative incidence of LR at 24 months was 6.8% (95% CI 3.8-11.0%) for tumors 10 mm in size or smaller, 12.4% (95% CI 7.8-18.1%) for tumors 11 to 20 mm in size, and 30.2% (95% CI 14.2-48.0%) for tumors larger than 20 mm. In the multivariable analysis, tumors larger than 20 mm with a subcapsular location were significantly associated with increased LR risk. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of CRLM with 2.45-GHz MWA offers excellent local control at 2 years and is most successful for small tumors deep within the parenchyma.

Hepatic disease control in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma correlates with overall survival.

PURPOSE: The role of locoregional therapy compared to systemic chemotherapy (SYS) for unresectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHC) remains controversial. The importance of hepatic disease control, either as initial or salvage therapy, is also unclear. We compared overall survival (OS) in patients treated with resection, hepatic arterial infusion pump (HAIP) chemotherapy, or SYS as it relates to hepatic recurrence or progression. We also evaluated recurrence after resection to determine the efficacy of locoregional salvage therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this single-institution retrospective analysis, patients with biopsy-proven IHC treated with either curative-intent resection, HAIP (with or without SYS), or SYS alone were analyzed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to compare patients with liver-limited, advanced disease treated with HAIP versus SYS. The impact of locoregional salvage therapies in patients with liver-limited recurrence was analyzed in the resection cohort. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2017, 714 patients with IHC were treated, 219 (30.7%) with resectable disease, 316 (44.3%) with locally advanced disease, and 179 (25.1%) with metastatic disease. Resected patients were less likely to recur or progress in the liver (hazard ratio [HR] 0.41, 95% CI 0.34-0.45) versus those that received HAIP or SYS (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65 vs. HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.69, respectively). In resected patients, 161 (64.4%) recurred, with 65 liver-only recurrences. Thirty of these patients received subsequent locoregional therapy. On multivariable analysis, locoregional therapy was associated with improved OS after isolated liver recurrence (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.29-0.75; p = 0.002). In patients with locally advanced unresectable or multifocal liver disease (with or without distant organ metastases), PSM demonstrated improved hepatic progression-free survival in patients treated with HAIP versus SYS (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.46-0.91; p = 0.01), which correlated with improved OS (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.43-0.80; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In patients with liver-limited IHC, hepatic disease control is associated with improved OS, emphasizing the potential importance of liver-directed therapy.

Genomic Biomarkers Associated with Response to Induction Chemotherapy in Patients with Localized Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

PURPOSE: There is increasing use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in the management of localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), yet there are few validated biomarkers to guide therapy selection. We aimed to determine whether somatic genomic biomarkers predict response to induction FOLFIRINOX or gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: This single-institution cohort study included consecutive patients (N = 322) with localized PDAC (2011-2020) who received at least one cycle of FOLFIRINOX (N = 271) or gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel (N = 51) as initial treatment. We assessed somatic alterations in four driver genes (KRAS, TP53, CDKN2A, and SMAD4) by targeted next-generation sequencing, and determined associations between these alterations and (1) rate of metastatic progression during induction chemotherapy, (2) surgical resection, and (3) complete/major pathologic response. RESULTS: The alteration rates in driver genes KRAS, TP53, CDKN2A, and SMAD4 were 87.0%, 65.5%, 26.7%, and 19.9%, respectively. For patients receiving first-line FOLFIRINOX, SMAD4 alterations were uniquely associated with metastatic progression (30.0% vs. 14.5%; P = 0.009) and decreased rate of surgical resection (37.1% vs. 66.7%; P < 0.001). For patients receiving induction gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel, alterations in SMAD4 were not associated with metastatic progression (14.3% vs. 16.2%; P = 0.866) nor decreased rate of surgical resection (33.3% vs. 41.9%; P = 0.605). Major pathologic response was rare (6.3%) and not associated with type of chemotherapy regimen. CONCLUSIONS: SMAD4 alterations were associated with more frequent development of metastasis and lower probability of reaching surgical resection during neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX but not gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel. Confirmation in a larger, diverse patient cohort will be important before prospective evaluation of SMAD4 as a genomic biomarker to guide treatment selection.

A Model to Predict Treatment Failure in Patients Undergoing Upfront Surgery for Resectable Colorectal Liver Metastases.

INTRODUCTION: Patients who recur in the first year after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) do poorly. The aim of our study was to predict treatment failure in patients undergoing upfront resection with a nomogram. METHODS: Data from patients resected between 1991 and 2019 were randomly split (70:30) into two cohorts. Treatment failure was defined as any recurrence or death within 12 months. A nomogram was constructed using multivariable logistic regression on the training cohort and validated using the testing cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 783 patients were included. Primary tumor characteristics included 50% left-sided: 75.2% T3/4 and 56.5% node-positive. The median disease-free interval was 10 months, median number of metastases was 1 (1-50), and with a median size of 3.6 cm (0.2-22); 222 (28.3%) patients recurred within 1 year. Recurrence was mostly extrahepatic with or without liver involvement (150/222, 67.6%). Curative-intent treatment was possible in 37.8% of these patients. Primary location, T-stage and node status, disease-free interval, and number and size of metastases were associated with treatment failure. The area under the curve from the validation of the model was 0.6 (95% confidence interval 0.52-0.68). Patients with a high-risk of treatment failure (≥40%) had a worse survival from the landmark time of 12 months from surgery compared with those with low-risk (2-years: 82% vs. 70%; p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: Primary location, T stage, node status, disease-free interval, and number and size of metastases are associated with treatment failure. The survival of patients with a probability of treatment failure ≥40% is unfavorable. Future trials investigating the role of neoadjuvant therapy in these high-risk patients are warranted.

Segmental Versus Diffuse Main Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm: Examination of Main Pancreatic Duct Morphology and Implications for Malignancy Risk and Extent of Surgical Resection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the morphologic features of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) of main-duct-involved-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) (ie, main duct or mixed main duct/side branch) have implications for the risk of malignancy and extent of resection. BACKGROUND: International consensus guidelines acknowledge the presence of various MPD morphologies (ie, diffuse vs segmental main-duct-involved-IPMN) without a precise definition of each entity and with limited data to guide treatment strategy. METHODS: All consecutive main-duct-involved-IPMN patients (2005-2019) with a MPD diameter ≥5 mm by cross-sectional imaging were reviewed from a prospective institutional database. Morphologic features of the MPD were correlated with the identification of high-grade dysplasia or pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (HGD/PDAC) by logistic regression modeling. In patients who underwent partial pancreatectomy, preoperative MPD morphologic features were correlated with the future development of HGD/PDAC in the pancreatic remnant by Cox hazards modeling. RESULTS: In a cohort of 214 main-duct-involved-IPMN patients, the overall rate of HGD/PDAC was 54.2%. MPD morphologic characteristics associated with HGD/PDAC included: maximal MPD diameter (5-10 mm: 29.8%; 10-14 mm: 59.0%; 15-19 mm: 78.6%; ≥20 mm: 95.8%; P <0.001), segmental extent of maximal dilation (<25%: 28.2%; 25%-49%: 54.9%; 50%-74%: 63.1%; ≥75%: 67.9%; P =0.002), and nonsegmental MPD diameter (<5 mm: 21.5% vs ≥5 mm: 78.5%, P <0.001). Diffuse MPD dilation involving ≥90% extent was rare (5.6%). After a median follow-up of 50 months, 7 (7.2%) patients who underwent partial pancreatectomy for IPMN without associated PDAC developed HGD/PDAC in the pancreatic remnant. Maximal MPD diameter, segmental extent of maximal dilation, or nonsegmental MPD diameter were not associated with the development of HGD/PDAC in the pancreatic remnant. However, a mural nodule on preoperative imaging was associated with the development of HGD/PDAC in the pancreatic remnant. CONCLUSIONS: "Diffuse" involvement with homogenous dilation of the MPD was rare. For the majority of patients with segmental main-duct-involved-IPMN, the MPD morphology conferred malignancy risk. Duct morphology was not predictive for the development of HGD or invasive disease in the pancreatic remnant, implying the safety of limited pancreatic resection for initial surgical management.

Recurrence-free survival versus overall survival as a primary endpoint for studies of resected colorectal liver metastasis: a retrospective study and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recurrence-free survival has been used as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in trials involving patients with resected colorectal liver metastases. We aimed to assess the correlation between recurrence-free survival and overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases to determine the adequacy of this surrogate endpoint. METHODS: In this retrospective study and meta-analysis, we compiled an institutional cohort of consecutive patients who had complete resection of colorectal liver metastases from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (New York, NY, USA) prospective database. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 18 years or older, and underwent hepatectomy, with or without operative ablation, between Jan 1, 1991, and April 30, 2019. We estimated overall survival and recurrence-free survival probabilities at various timepoints using the Kaplan-Meier method, and we assessed pairwise associations between these endpoints using Spearman's rank correlation. We also did a meta-analysis of adjuvant phase 3 clinical trials for colorectal liver metastases to assess the correlation between hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrence-free survival and overall survival. We searched MEDLINE for articles of phase 3 randomised controlled trials analysing adjuvant treatment strategies for resected colorectal metastases from database inception to Jan 1, 2022. The titles and abstracts of identified studies were screened before full-text screening and summary data were either recalculated or extracted manually from the published Kaplan-Meier curves (depending on data availability). FINDINGS: Data were available for 3299 patients in the institutional database, of whom 2983 were eligible for inclusion in our cohort. Median follow-up was 8·4 years (95% CI 7·9-9·1) , during which time there were 1995 (67%) disease recurrences and 1684 (56%) deaths. Median recurrence-free survival was 1·3 years (95% CI 1·3-1·4) and median overall survival was 5·2 years (95% CI 5·0-5·5). 1428 (85%) of 1684 deaths were preceded by recurrence, and median time from recurrence to death was 2·0 years (IQR 1·0-3·4). Pairwise correlations between recurrence-free survival and overall survival were low to moderate, with a correlation estimate ranging from 0·30 (SD 0·17) to 0·56 (0·13). In the meta-analysis of adjuvant clinical trials, the Spearman's correlation coefficient between recurrence-free survival HR and overall survival HR was r=0·20 (p=0·71). INTERPRETATION: We found a minimal correlation between recurrence-free survival and overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases. Recurrence-free survival is an inadequate surrogate endpoint for overall survival in this disease setting. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute.

Development and validation of the Massachusetts General Hospital/Memorial Sloan Kettering nomogram to predict overall survival of resected patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

BACKGROUND: Prognostication in patients undergoing resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma following neoadjuvant therapy remains challenging. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival of these patients. METHODS: Patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgical resection at the Massachusetts General Hospital were analyzed (training cohort). Patients from Memorial Sloan Kettering were included as a validation cohort. A nomogram to predict overall survival was designed, trained, and subjected to internal (bootstrap) validation. RESULTS: A total of 325 patients were identified from Massachusetts General Hospital. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age (hazard ratio 1.828, 95% confidence interval 1.251-2.246; P = .007), serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ≥ 37 U/mL (HR 1.602, 95% confidence interval 1.187-3.258; P = .015), tumor size (hazard ratio 2.278, 95% confidence interval 1.405-4.368; P = .003), nodal status (hazard ratio 1.309, 95% confidence interval 1.108-2.439; P = .032), and R1 tumor resection (hazard ratio 1.481, 95% confidence interval 1.049-2.091; P = .026) were independent factors associated with overall survival. A nomogram that incorporated these significant prognostic factors was established. The calibration plots demonstrated high concordance between predictive nomogram values and actual overall survival for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival. The model demonstrated excellent discriminatory power in both the Massachusetts General Hospital and Memorial Sloan Kettering cohorts, with adjusted Harrel's concordance index values of 0.729 and 0.712, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this report, we established and validated a novel nomogram for predicting the survival of patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by pancreatectomy. This model allows clinicians to better estimate the survival of these specific patients.