Identifying age- and sex-specific COVID-19 mortality trends over time in six countries.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by successive waves that each developed differently over time and through space. We aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the evolution of COVID-19 mortality during 2020 and 2021 in a selection of countries. METHODS: We focus on five European countries and the United States. Using standardized and age-specific mortality rates, we address variations in COVID-19 mortality within and between countries, and demographic characteristics and seasonality patterns. RESULTS: Our results highlight periods of acceleration and deceleration in the pace of COVID-19 mortality, with substantial differences across countries. Periods of stabilization were identified during summer (especially in 2020) among the European countries analyzed but not in the United States. The latter stands out as the study population with the highest COVID-19 mortality at young ages. In general, COVID-19 mortality is highest at old ages, particularly during winter. Compared with women, men have higher COVID-19 mortality rates at most ages and in most seasons. CONCLUSION: There is seasonality in COVID-19 mortality for both sexes at all ages, characterized by higher rates during winter. In 2021, the highest COVID-19 mortality rates continued to be observed at ages 75+, despite vaccinations having targeted those ages specifically.

Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of frailty in aging populations represents a major social and public health challenge which warrants a better understanding of the contribution of frailty to the morbid process. OBJECTIVE: To examine frailty-related mortality as reported on the death certificate in France, Italy, Spain and the United States in 2017. METHODS: We identify frailty at death for the population aged 50 years and over in France, Italy, Spain and the United States. We estimate the proportions of deaths by sex, age group and country with specific frailty-related ICD-codes on the death certificate 1) as the underlying cause of death (UC), 2) elsewhere in Part I (sequence of diseases or conditions or events leading directly to death), and 3) anywhere in Part II (conditions that do not belong in Part I but whose presence contributed to death). RESULTS: The age-standardized proportion of deaths with frailty at ages 50 and over is highest in Italy (25.0%), then in France (24.1%) and Spain (17.3%), and lowest in the United States (14.0%). Cross-country differences are smaller when frailty-related codes are either the underlying cause of the death or reported in Part II. Frailty-related mortality increases with age and is higher among females than males. Dementia is the most frequently reported frailty-related code. CONCLUSIONS: Notable cross-country differences were found in the prevalence and the type of frailty-related symptoms at death even after adjusting for differential age distributions.

The demography of COVID-19 deaths database, a gateway to well-documented international data.

National authorities publish COVID-19 death counts, which are extensively re-circulated and compared; but data are generally poorly sourced and documented. Academics and stakeholders need tools to assess data quality and to track data-related discrepancies for comparability over time or across countries. "The Demography of COVID-19 Deaths" database aims at bridging this gap. It provides COVID-19 death counts along with associated documentation, which includes the exact data sources and points out issues of quality and coverage of the data. The database - launched in April 2020 and continuously updated - contains daily cumulative death counts attributable to COVID-19 broken down by sex and age, place and date of occurrence of the death. Data and metadata undergo quality control checks prior to online release. As of mid-December 2021, it covers 21 countries in Europe and beyond. It is open access at a bilingual (English and French) website with content intended for expert users and non-specialists ( https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/en/ ; figshare: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5807027 ). Data and metadata are available for each country separately and pooled over all countries.

Socioeconomic Disparities Do Not Explain the U.S. International Disadvantage in Mortality.

OBJECTIVES: The articles examines the contribution of internal socioeconomic disparities in mortality to the U.S. international disadvantage in life expectancy at birth. METHODS: Using individual death records from the U.S. national vital statistics system for years 1982-2019 and data for other countries from the Human Mortality Database, we compare age-specific death rates and life expectancy between counties classified into 10 socioeconomic categories and 20 high-income countries. We also calculate the number of years of life lost in each socioeconomic decile in relation to the comparison set. RESULTS: There is a clear and increasing socioeconomic gradient of mortality in the United States, but the growing divergence in internal mortality trends does not explain the rising gap between the country and its peers. In 2019, even American women in the most socioeconomically advantaged decile lived shorter lives, while only 10% of men in the most affluent decile fared better than their peers. The long-standing U.S. disadvantage in young adult mortality has been growing and the country's previous advantage in mortality at ages 75 years and older has virtually disappeared for all but for Americans in the most affluent counties. DISCUSSION: The similar age pattern of differences in mortality rates between each socioeconomic deciles and the comparison group suggests that the underlying factors might be the same. The role of external causes (including drug overdoses) for middle-aged adults and a slowing down in progress to control cardiovascular diseases at older ages at the national level are consistent with this pattern.

County-level socio-economic disparities in COVID-19 mortality in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Preliminary studies have suggested a link between socio-economic characteristics and COVID-19 mortality. Such studies have been carried out on particular geographies within the USA or selective data that do not represent the complete experience for 2020. METHODS: We estimated COVID-19 mortality rates, number of years of life lost to SARS-CoV-2 and reduction in life expectancy during each of the three pandemic waves in 2020 for 3144 US counties grouped into five socio-economic status categories, using daily death data from the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine and weekly mortality age structure from the Centers for Disease Control. RESULTS: During March-May 2020, COVID-19 mortality was highest in the most socio-economically advantaged quintile of counties and lowest in the two most-disadvantaged quintiles. The pattern reversed during June-August and widened by September-December, such that COVID-19 mortality rates were 2.58 times higher in the bottom than in the top quintile of counties. Differences in the number of years of life lost followed a similar pattern, ultimately resulting in 1.002 (1.000, 1.004) million years in the middle quintile to 1.381 (1.378, 1.384) million years of life lost in the first (most-disadvantaged) quintile during the whole year. CONCLUSIONS: Diverging trajectories of COVID-19 mortality among the poor and affluent counties indicated a progressively higher rate of loss of life among socio-economically disadvantaged communities. Accounting for socio-economic disparities when allocating resources to control the spread of the infection and to reinforce local public health infrastructure would reduce inequities in the mortality burden of the disease.

The short-term mortality fluctuation data series, monitoring mortality shocks across time and space.

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable approach to quantify the mortality burden due to short-term risk factors is based on estimating weekly excess deaths. This approach is more reliable than monitoring deaths with COVID-19 diagnosis or calculating incidence or fatality rates affected by numerous problems such as testing coverage and comparability of diagnostic approaches. In response to the emerging data challenges, a new data resource on weekly mortality has been established. The Short-term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF, available at www.mortality.org ) data series is the first international database providing open-access harmonized, uniform, and fully documented data on weekly all-cause mortality. The STMF online vizualisation tool provides an opportunity to perform a quick assessment of the excess weekly mortality in one or several countries by means of an interactive graphical interface.

Geographically targeted COVID-19 vaccination is more equitable and averts more deaths than age-based thresholds alone.

COVID-19 mortality increases markedly with age and is also substantially higher among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations in the United States. These two facts can have conflicting implications because BIPOC populations are younger than white populations. In analyses of California and Minnesota­demographically divergent states­we show that COVID vaccination schedules based solely on age benefit the older white populations at the expense of younger BIPOC populations with higher risk of death from COVID-19. We find that strategies that prioritize high-risk geographic areas for vaccination at all ages better target mortality risk than age-based strategies alone, although they do not always perform as well as direct prioritization of high-risk racial/ethnic groups. Vaccination schemas directly implicate equitability of access, both domestically and globally.

Evaluation of the Cancer Transition Theory in the US, Select European Nations, and Japan by Investigating Mortality of Infectious- and Noninfectious-Related Cancers, 1950-2018.

Importance: Despite cancer being a leading cause of death worldwide, scant research has been carried out on the validity of the cancer transition theory, the idea that as nations develop, they move from a situation where infectious-related cancers are prominent to one where noninfectious-related cancers dominate. Objective: To examine whether cancer transitions exist in the US, select European countries, and Japan. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, annual cause-of-death data from the 1950s to 2018 for the US, England and Wales, France, Sweden, Norway, and Japan were extracted from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization (WHO). Statistical analysis was performed from April 2020 to February 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates for all ages and both sexes combined were estimated for cancers of the stomach, cervix, liver, lung, pancreas, esophagus, colorectum, breast, and prostate. Results: The results of the analysis show that for all countries in this study except for Japan, mortality from infectious-related cancers has declined steadily throughout the period, so that by the end of the period, for Norway, England and Wales, Sweden, and the US, rates were approximately 20 deaths per 100 000 population. Regarding noninfectious-related cancers, at the beginning of the period, all countries exhibited an increasing trend in rates, with England and Wales having the greatest peak of 215.1 deaths per 100 000 population (95% CI 213.7-216.6 deaths per 100 000 population) in 1985 followed by a decline, with most of the other countries reaching a peak around 1990 and declining thereafter. Furthermore, there is a visible crossover in the trends for infectious-related and noninfectious-related cancers in Japan and Norway. This crossover occurred in 1988 in Japan, when the rates for both types of cancers stood at 116 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 115.0-116.5 per 100 000 population), and in 1955 in Norway, when they passed each other at 100 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 96.4-105.3 per 100 000 population). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the findings suggest that cancer mortality patterns parallel the epidemiological transition, which states that as nations develop, they move from a stage where infectious diseases are prominent to one where noninfectious diseases dominate. An implication is that the epidemiological transition theory as originally formulated continues to be relevant, despite some researchers arguing that there should be additional stages beyond the original 3.

Geographically-targeted COVID-19 vaccination is more equitable than age-based thresholds alone.

COVID-19 mortality increases dramatically with age and is also substantially higher among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations in the United States. These two facts introduce tradeoffs because BIPOC populations are younger than white populations. In analyses of California and Minnesota--demographically divergent states--we show that COVID vaccination schedules based solely on age benefit the older white populations at the expense of younger BIPOC populations with higher risk of death from COVID-19. We find that strategies that prioritize high-risk geographic areas for vaccination at all ages better target mortality risk than age-based strategies alone, although they do not always perform as well as direct prioritization of high-risk racial/ethnic groups.

Costa Rican Mortality 1950-2013: An Evaluation of Data Quality and Trends Compared with Other Countries.

BACKGROUND: Mortality estimates from various sources suggest that Costa Ricans experience record-high life expectancy at birth in Latin America and higher longevity than the populations of many high-income countries, although there is some uncertainty as to the reliability of those estimates. OBJECTIVE: We construct a life table series for Costa Rica to assess the quality of national demographic statistics for the period 1950-2013 and to determine whether reliable mortality estimates can be directly calculated from these data. METHODS: We apply the methods from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to national statistics to construct the Costa Rica life table series without adjusting for data quality, and we validate our results through internal consistency by evaluating the plausibility of the mortality patterns and its change over time and through external consistency by comparing our results with those from other sources. RESULTS: Our mortality estimates for Costa Rica tend to be lower than others, especially for the period before 1970. They also produce a suspicious age pattern of mortality, with low adult and old-age mortality relative to the infant and child mortality, casting doubt on the quality of national demographic data. CONCLUSIONS: Other organizations have produced mortality estimates for Costa Rica that are higher than our unadjusted estimates, but it is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of the available estimates. CONTRIBUTION: This analysis provides a more thorough evaluation of data quality issues regarding Costa Rica mortality than previously available. Unadjusted life tables by sex for 1950-2013 are included as supplemental material, together with the raw data upon which those life tables are based and with links to the detailed methods protocol implemented.

The contribution of drug-related deaths to the US disadvantage in mortality.

BACKGROUND: The USA ranks last in life expectancy among high-income countries. Since 2000, excess US mortality has been particularly concentrated in the working ages, which are also the ages hardest hit by the increase in drug deaths. This study measures the effect of drug-related mortality on the gap in life expectancy between the USA and other countries. METHODS: Data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization were combined to construct age-standardized mortality rates for 2000-14 in 12 high-income countries and the USA for seven broad causes of death, including drug use. The contribution of each cause to the difference in life expectancy between the USA and the other 12 countries was estimated. RESULTS: In 2014, the increase in drug-related deaths accounted for 10-15% of the US disadvantage in mortality, but with marked differences by age group. For working-age men, the increase in drug-related deaths accounted for up to 38% of the difference. Overall, American mortality is higher than the comparison countries across a wide range of causes. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of the drug epidemic appears to be specific to the USA, but it only partly contributes to the American shortfall in mortality.

Trends in Black and White Opioid Mortality in the United States, 1979-2015.

BACKGROUND: Recent research on the US opioid epidemic has focused on the white or total population and has largely been limited to data after 1999. However, understanding racial differences in long-term trends by opioid type may contribute to improving interventions. METHODS: Using multiple cause of death data, we calculated age-standardized opioid mortality rates, by race and opioid type, for the US resident population from 1979 to 2015. We analyzed trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: From 1979 to 2015, the long-term trends in opioid-related mortality for Earlier data did not include ethnicity so this is incorrect. It is all black and all white residents in the US. blacks and whites went through three successive waves. In the first wave, from 1979 to the mid-1990s, the epidemic affected both populations and was driven by heroin. In the second wave, from the mid-1990s to 2010, the increase in opioid mortality was driven by natural/semi-synthetic opioids (e.g., codeine, morphine, hydrocodone, or oxycodone) among whites, while there was no increase in mortality for blacks. In the current wave, increases in opioid mortality for both populations have been driven by heroin and synthetic opioids (e.g., fentanyl and its analogues). Heroin rates are currently increasing at 31% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 27, 35) per year for whites and 34% (95% CI = 30, 40) for blacks. Concurrently, respective synthetic opioids are increasing at 79% (95% CI = 50, 112) and 107% (95% CI = -15, 404) annually. CONCLUSION: Since 1979, the nature of the opioid epidemic has shifted from heroin to prescription opioids for the white population to increasing of heroin/synthetic deaths for both black and white populations. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B377.

A Flexible Bayesian Model for Estimating Subnational Mortality.

Reliable subnational mortality estimates are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations among which the stochastic variation in death counts is relatively high, and thus the underlying mortality levels are unclear. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mortality at the subnational level. The model builds on characteristic age patterns in mortality curves, which are constructed using principal components from a set of reference mortality curves. Information on mortality rates are pooled across geographic space and are smoothed over time. Testing of the model shows reasonable estimates and uncertainty levels when it is applied both to simulated data that mimic U.S. counties and to real data for French départements. The model estimates have direct applications to the study of subregional health patterns and disparities.

Obesity-related mortality in France, Italy, and the United States: a comparison using multiple cause-of-death analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We investigate the reporting of obesity on death certificates in three countries (France, Italy, and the United States) with different levels of prevalence, and we examine which causes are frequently associated with obesity. METHODS: We use cause-of-death data for all deaths at ages 50-89 in 2010-2011. Since obesity may not be the underlying cause (UC) of death, we compute age- and sex-standardized death rates considering all mentions of obesity (multiple causes or MC). We use cluster analyses to identify patterns of cause-of-death combinations. RESULTS: Obesity is selected as UC in no more than 20% of the deaths with a mention of obesity. Mortality levels, whether measured from the UC or the MC, are weakly related to levels of prevalence. Patterns of cause-of-death combinations are similar across the countries. In addition to strong links with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, we identify several less familiar associations. CONCLUSIONS: Considering all mentions on the deaths certificates reduces the underestimation of obesity-related mortality based on the UC only. It also enables us to describe the various mortality patterns involving obesity.

Recent Demographic Developments in France: Relatively Low Mortality at Advanced Ages.

France had 65.3 million inhabitants as of 1 January 2012, including 1.9 million in the overseas départements. The population is slightly younger than that of the European Union as a whole. Population growth continues at the same rate, mainly through natural increase. There are now more African than European immigrants living in France. Fertility was practically stable in 2011 (2.01 children per woman), but the lifetime fertility of the 1971-1972 cohorts reached a historic low in metropolitan France (1.99 children per woman), nevertheless remaining among the highest in Europe. Abortion levels remained stable and rates among young people are no longer increasing. The marriage rate is falling and the divorce rate has stabilized (46.2 divorces per 100 marriages in 2011). The risk of divorce decreases with age, but has greatly increased among the under-70s over the last decade. Life expectancy at birth (78.4 years for men, 85.0 for women) has continued to increase at the same rate, mainly thanks to progress at advanced ages. Among European countries, France has the lowest mortality in the over-65 age group, but it ranks less well for premature mortality.

The Demography of Canada and the United States from the 1980s to the 2000s A Summary of Changes and a Statistical Assessment.

Canada and the United States have enjoyed vigorous population growth since the early 1980s. Although mortality is slightly higher in the United States than in Canada, this is largely offset by much higher fertility, with a total fertility rate at replacement level, compared with just 1.5 children per woman in Canada. The United States is also the world's largest immigrant receiving country, although its immigration rate is only half that of Canada, where today one person in five is foreign-born, versus one in eight in the United States. Based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and international migration, the populations of these two North American countries will continue to grow over the next five decades, but at a progressively slower pace. The most acute demographic issue today is not, as in Europe, that of imminent population decline, but rather of the geographic and social inequalities which have increased steadily since the early 1980s and which are reflected in major fertility and health differentials between regions and social groups.