The quick and the dead: "managing" inpatient care in British Columbia hospitals, 1969-1995/96.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in hospital use in British Columbia during a decade of capacity reductions. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: The data used are all separation records for British Columbia hospitals for the years 1969, 1978, 1985/86, 1993/94, and 1995/96. Separation records include acute care, rehabilitation, extended care, and surgical day care hospital encounters in British Columbia that were concluded during the years of interest. STUDY DESIGN: Analyses were based on per capita use of services for five-year age groups of the population to ages 90+; the emphasis was on looking at changes in the use of specific types of hospital services over the 26 years of study, with a particular focus on the most recent decade. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data were extracted from hospital separations files owned by the British Columbia Ministry of Health and housed at the Centre for Health Services and Policy Research. All separation records for the years of interest were included in the study. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Acute care use continued to fall over the last decade. The rate of decline increased during the last time period of study and affected seniors to the same degree as younger patients. At the same time, use of extended care decreased, compared to steady increases in earlier years. The result was that by 1995/96 nearly 40 percent of inpatient days were used by people who died in hospital, compared to 9 percent in 1969. These people, however, still represent a small proportion of separations. CONCLUSIONS: The "bed blocker" problem common to many hospital systems appears to have been largely alleviated in British Columbia over the decade 1985-95. The concurrent decrease in extended care use, however, makes it difficult to say where and how these people are now being cared for. Care for the dying has become a bigger issue for hospitals, but whether this is because of heroic interventions at the end of life is not clear. A "top-down," capacity-driven management approach to hospital use in British Columbia has produced effects that may seem familiar to those involved in more "bottom-up" managed care approaches in the United States.

Hospital downsizing and trends in health care use among elderly people in British Columbia.

BACKGROUND: There has been considerable downsizing of acute care services in British Columbia over the past 2 decades. In this population-based study we examined changes in the proportion of elderly people who used acute care, long-term care and home care services between 1986-1988 and 1993-1995 to explore whether the downsizing has influenced use. Changes in death rates were also examined. METHODS: The British Columbia Linked Health Database was used to select all British Columbia residents aged 65 years, 75-76 years, 85-87 years or 90-93 years as of Jan. 1, 1986 (cohort 1), and Jan. 1, 1993 (cohort 2). Each person was assigned to 1 of 6 mutually exclusive categories of health care use reflecting different intensities of use (i.e., hospital, long-term or home care). The proportions of people within each category were compared between the 2 periods, as were the age-standardized death rates. RESULTS: There were 79,175 people in cohort 1 and 92,320 in cohort 2. Overall, the relative proportion of people in each use category was similar between the 2 study periods. The most substantial changes were an increase of 2 percentage points in the proportion of people who received no facility or home care services and a decrease of 2 to 3 percentage points in the proportion who received some acute care but no facility-based continuing care. The age-adjusted all-cause death rates for the earlier and later cohorts were virtually identical (15.7% and 15.8% respectively), although the rate increased from 63.6% to 70.1% among those in the "full-time facility with acute care" group. INTERPRETATION: Overall changes in health care use were small, which suggests that the repercussions of the decline in acute care services for elderly people have been minimal. The higher age-adjusted death rates in the later cohort in full-time care suggests that long-term stays are becoming reserved for a sicker group of elderly people than in the past.

Age, costs of acute and long-term care and proximity to death: evidence for 1987-88 and 1994-95 in British Columbia.

BACKGROUND: the consequences of ageing populations for health care costs have become a concern for governments and health care funders in most countries. However, there is increasing evidence that costs are more closely related to proximity to death than to age. This means that projections using age-specific costs will exaggerate the impact of ageing. Previous studies of the relationship of age, proximity to death and costs have been restricted to acute medical care. OBJECTIVE: to assess the effects of age and proximity to death on costs of both acute medical care and nursing and social care, and to assess if this relationship was stable in a time of rapid change in health care expenditure. DESIGN AND METHODS: we compared all decedents in the chosen age categories for the years 1987-88 and 1994-95 with all survivors in the same age groups. We measured use of health and social care for each individual using the British Columbia linked data, and costs of care assessed by multiplying the number of services by the unit cost of each service. SETTING: the Province of British Columbia. SUBJECTS: all decedents in 1987-88 and 1994-95 in British Columbia in the chosen age groups, and all survivors in the same age groups. RESULTS: costs of acute care rise with age, but the proximity to death is a more important factor in determining costs. The additional costs of dying fall with age. In contrast, costs of nursing and social care rise with age, but additional costs for those who are dying increase with age. Similar patterns were found for the two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: age is less important than proximity to death as a predictor of costs. However, the pattern of social and nursing care costs is different from that for acute medical care. In planning services it is important to take into account the relatively larger impact of ageing on social and nursing care than on acute care.

Mortality rates after cataract extraction.

Senile cataract may be a marker of generalized tissue aging. We examined this hypothesis using population-based linked health data. We hypothesized that any such association would diminish with increased use of cataract surgery. Mortality rates of those 50-95 years of age undergoing cataract surgery in British Columbia during either 1985 or 1989 were compared with the provincial population of comparable age who did not undergo cataract surgery during the study period. The 1985 cohort included 8,262 patients undergoing surgery and a comparison population of 804,303, and the 1989 cohort included 11,952 patients and a comparison population of 839,393. Using Cox regression, for the 1985 cohort, the hazard ratios for dying during follow-up were 3.2 for males 50-54.9 years of age [95% confidence limits (CL) = 2.0, 5.0] and 3.3 for females (95% CL = 1.9, 5.7). Hazard ratios for older age groups decreased with age. We also fit an additive risk model that produced excess mortalities that were less age dependent. In the 1985 analysis, these ranged from +7.1 per 1,000 (95% CL = +0.44, +13.76) to +20.3 (95% CL = +13.24, +27.36) for males and -17.5 (95% CL = -28.28, -6.72) to +2.0 (95% CL = -2.12, +6.12) for females. Findings for the 1989 analyses were similar, indicating that the association between cataracts and generalized aging remained constant despite a large increase in the use of cataract surgery.

Creating a population-based linked health database: a new resource for health services research.

As the availability of both health utilization and outcome information becomes increasingly important to health care researchers and policy makers, the ability to link person-specific health data becomes a critical objective. The integration of population-based administrative health databases has been realized in British Columbia by constructing an historical file of all persons registered with the health care system, and by probabilistically linking various program files to this 'coordinating' file. The linkages have achieved a high rate of success in matching service events to person-specific registration records. This success has allowed research projects to be proposed which would otherwise not have been feasible, and has initiated the development of policies and procedures regarding research access to linked data. These policies and procedures include a framework for addressing the ethical issues surrounding data linkage. With continued attention to confidentiality issues, these linked data present a valuable resource for health services research and planning.

Socioeconomic status, mortality, and the development of cataract at a young age.

It has been hypothesized that senile cataract may serve as a marker for generalised tissue aging, since structural changes occurring in the proteins of the lens during cataract formation are similar to those which occur elsewhere as part of the aging process. An earlier analysis we carried out to test this hypothesis revealed a strong age-dependent relationship between undergoing cataract surgery and subsequent mortality. Relative risks for dying over 9 yr of follow-up were particularly increased for individuals who had developed cataract requiring operation between the ages of 50-65. This finding prompted us to test the hypothesis that younger patients undergoing surgery for cataract (those in which surgery was undertaken at 50-65 yr of age) would tend disproportionately to be resident in areas of generally lower socioeconomic status. A population-based linked health data resource containing data on all hospital separations in the province of British Columbia was used to examine this hypothesis. Linkage to Canadian census data was used to assign a socioeconomic decile to the area of residence for all individuals in British Columbia who either did, or did not, undergo cataract surgery over a 3 yr period, and were aged 50-95. Relative to those who resided in the highest socioeconomic areas, odds ratios for undergoing cataract surgery between 50 and 65 yr of age were significantly greater than 1 for the four lowest socioeconomic deciles. This association was observed despite a conservative bias in our setting that favoured those of higher socioeconomic status tending to receive earlier treatment. The results of this ecologic study prompt consideration of whether factors which have the dual attributes of being correlates of socioeconomic status and implicated in the development of cataract may play a role in mediating the processes involved in the well known association of socioeconomic status and mortality.

Emergency department use as a component of total ambulatory care: a population perspective.

OBJECTIVES: (a) To describe the overall proportion of ambulatory care provided in emergency departments for a complete urban population, (b) to describe the variation across small geographic areas in the overall proportion of ambulatory care provided in emergency departments and (c) to identify attributes of small-area populations that are related to the provision of high proportions of total ambulatory care in emergency departments. DESIGN: Cross-sectional ecologic study combining 4 sources of secondary data on health service utilization and socioeconomic status. SETTING: Winnipeg. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 657,871 residents of metropolitan Winnipeg in the period April 1991 to March 1992, grouped into 112 neighbourhoods. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: A proportion calculated, for each neighbourhood population, from the estimated count of emergency department visits divided by the population's use of total ambulatory care for a sample of 55 days in the study period. RESULTS: The overall proportion of ambulatory care provided in emergency departments was 4.9% (range 2.6% to 10.8%), representing 35.5 emergency department visits per 100 person-years. Neighbourhoods with a higher proportion of total ambulatory care provided in emergency departments were characterized by lower mean household income, a higher proportion of emergency department visits for mental illness and a higher proportion of residents with treaty Indian status. Measures of need for medical care for were not consistently associated with the proportion of ambulatory care received in emergency departments. CONCLUSIONS: In a health care system with an adequate supply of primary care physicians and universal insurance, this study has documented significant variation across small geographic areas in the proportion of total ambulatory care received in emergency departments. In the absence of strong evidence that this variation was associated with underlying need, the results suggest that attention be paid to the accessibility of conventional primary care.

Canadians' use of U.S. medical services.

To explore the extent of cross-border care seeking among Canadians, we analyzed the growth and distribution of Ontario Health Insurance Plan expenditures for medical care services provided in the United States to Ontario residents from 1987 to 1995. Although total out-of-province spending is low relative to in-province spending, there is evidence of cross-border care seeking for cardiovascular and orthopedic procedures, mental health services, and cancer treatments. However, combined with a preliminary investigation of cross-border patient care seeking using nonpublic funding sources, these analyses do not support the perception of widespread cross-border medical care seeking by Ontario residents.

Re-minding our Ps and Qs: medical cost controls in Canada.

During the past few years the landscape of Canadian physician reimbursement policy has undergone dramatic change. Rapidly eroding fiscal environments for provincial (and federal) governments have forced provinces to "get serious" about controlling a significant, previously uncontrolled, budget line: physician expenditures. All provinces now impose medical expenditure caps, with eight of these being hard caps under which any overruns are the responsibility of the profession. In addition, policies in five provinces now include individual income caps. One of the effects of this new environment has been a rush to adopt supply-control policies. This paper explores a number of other side effects, such as heightened interest in alternative methods of payment, as well as the emergence of, and difficulties for, joint province/medical association management committees.

Trends and determinants of prescription drug expenditures in the elderly: data from the British Columbia Pharmacare Program.

This paper uses claims data from the prescription drug program for the elderly in British Columbia to describe temporal trends in prescription drug use and the determinants of those trends. Drug expenditures under the program increased by 317% from $21.6 million in 1981-82 to $90 million in 1988-89. Of the $68.4 million-dollar increase in overall expenditures, 34% was due to new drugs, 24% to increased age-specific utilization rates of old drugs, 21% to increased prices of old drugs, and 14% to the increased size of the elderly population. The analysis indicates that 61.5% of new drug expenditures can be attributed to four specific drugs and that the relative importance of price and utilization rates in determining changes in expenditures on old drugs varies by drug category. The paper provides a framework for understanding and predicting expenditures for drug benefit plans.