Cross-model validation of public health microsimulation models; comparing two models on estimated effects of a weight management intervention.

BACKGROUND: Health economic modelling indicates that referral to a behavioural weight management programme is cost saving and generates QALY gains compared with a brief intervention. The aim of this study was to conduct a cross-model validation comparing outcomes from this cost-effectiveness analysis to those of a comparator model, to understand how differences in model structure contribute to outcomes. METHODS: The outcomes produced by two models, the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention (SPHR) and Health Checks (HC) models, were compared for three weight-management programme strategies; Weight Watchers (WW) for 12 weeks, WW for 52 weeks, and a brief intervention, and a simulated no intervention scenario. Model inputs were standardised, and iterative adjustments were made to each model to identify drivers of differences in key outcomes. RESULTS: The total QALYs estimated by the HC model were higher in all treatment groups than those estimated by the SPHR model, and there was a large difference in incremental QALYs between the models. SPHR simulated greater QALY gains for 12-week WW and 52-week WW relative to the Brief Intervention. Comparisons across socioeconomic groups found a stronger socioeconomic gradient in the SPHR model. Removing the impact of treatment on HbA1c from the SPHR model, running both models only with the conditions that the models have in common and, to a lesser extent, changing the data used to estimate risk factor trajectories, resulted in more consistent model outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The key driver of difference between the models was the inclusion of extra evidence-based detail in SPHR on the impacts of treatments on HbA1c. The conclusions were less sensitive to the dataset used to inform the risk factor trajectories. These findings strengthen the original cost-effectiveness analyses of the weight management interventions and provide an increased understanding of what is structurally important in the models.

A narrative review of online food delivery in Australia: challenges and opportunities for public health nutrition policy.

OBJECTIVE: Online food delivery (OFD) platforms offer consumers a convenient and fast delivery service of foods and drinks sourced from foodservice partners (e.g. restaurants, quick service restaurants). There is a need to assess the impact of this emergent segment of the foodservice sector on diet and diet-related health. The aim of this narrative review was to describe the OFD sector in Australia, its use and identify potential ways to include OFD platforms in existing public health nutrition policy. DESIGN: A search was conducted in peer-reviewed and grey literature. Sources were analysed and synthesised to report the characteristics of OFD platforms, delivery process, users and potential drivers of usage. The aim and scope of public health nutrition policies were analysed to identify ways of including OFD platforms. SETTING: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: General population. RESULTS: There are three main operators with 9000-16 000 foodservice partners based predominantly in the main cities of Australia. OFD revenue has grown by 72 % in the last 5 years and is predicted to increase driven by usage by working adults with high disposable income who demand convenience. Current policies and initiatives aimed at manufacturers, retailers and foodservice outlets do not specifically regulate OFD platforms, although there is scope for these to be extended to such platforms. CONCLUSIONS: OFD platforms are disruptors of the foodservice sector. Innovative and consistent health policy options that target the unique challenges and opportunities posed by OFD platforms are required to limit the potentially negative impact of OFD platforms on diet and diet-related health.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of referral to a commercial open group behavioural weight management programme in adults with overweight and obesity: 5-year follow-up of the WRAP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that commercially available behavioural weight management programmes can lead to short-term weight loss and reductions in glycaemia. Here, we aimed to provide the 5-year impact and cost-effectiveness of these interventions compared with a brief intervention. METHODS: WRAP was a non-blinded, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT). We recruited from primary care practices in England and randomly assigned participants to one of three interventions (brief intervention, 12-week open-group behavioural programme [WW, formerly Weight Watchers], or a 52-week open-group WW behavioural programme) in an uneven (2:5:5) allocation. Participants were followed up 5 years after randomisation using data from measurement visits at primary care practices or a research centre, review of primary care electronic medical notes, and self-report questionnaires. The primary outcome was change in weight at 5 years follow-up, assessed using analysis of covariance. We also estimated cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This study is registered at Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN64986150. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2012, and Feb 10, 2014, we recruited 1269 eligible participants (two participants were randomly assigned but not eligible and therefore excluded) and 1040 (82%) consented to be approached about additional follow-up and to have their medical notes reviewed at 5 years. The primary outcome (weight) was ascertained for 871 (69%) of 1267 eligible participants. Mean duration of follow-up was 5·1 (SD 0·3) years. Mean weight change from baseline to 5 years was -0·46 (SD 8·31) kg in the brief intervention group, -1·95 (9·55) kg in the 12-week programme group, and -2·67 (9·81) kg in the 52-week programme. The adjusted difference in weight change was -1·76 (95% CI -3·68 to 0·17) kg between the 52-week programme and the brief intervention; -0·80 (-2·13 to 0·54) kg between the 52-week and the 12-week programme; and -0·96 (-2·90 to 0·97) kg between the 12-week programme and the brief intervention. During the trial, the 12-week programme incurred the lowest cost and produced the highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Simulations beyond 5 years suggested that the 52-week programme would deliver the highest QALYs at the lowest cost and would be the most cost-effective. No participants reported adverse events related to the intervention. INTERPRETATION: Although the difference in weight change between groups was not statistically significant, some weight loss was maintained at 5 years after an open-group behavioural weight management programme. Health economic modelling suggests that this could have important implications to reduce the incidence of weight-related disease and these interventions might be cost-saving. FUNDING: The UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Programme Grants for Applied Research and the Medical Research Council.

Perinatal excellence to reduce injury in preterm birth (PERIPrem) through quality improvement.

Perinatal Excellence to Reduce Injury in Premature Birth (PERIPrem) is an 11-element perinatal care bundle designed to improve outcomes for preterm babies, in line with the National Health Service (NHS) Long Term plan. Designed in collaboration with 12 NHS Trusts (secondary care hospitals), South West and West of England Academic Health Science Networks, South West Neonatal Operational Delivery Network, parent partners and clinical experts, implementation was via bespoke quality improvement (QI) methodology. Before project initiation, there was regional variation in uptake of elements, evidenced by baseline audit. Optimisation of the preterm infant is complex; eligibility for treatments is dependent on gestation and local policies. Preterm infants experience variability in care dependent on the place of birth, and there remains an implementation gap for several effective, evidence-based treatments.The PERIPrem ambition is to reduce severe brain injury and death caused by prematurity by at least 50% through the delivery of a perinatal care bundle. The PERIPrem approach resulted in improved element implementation by 26% (from 3% to 29%) between 2019 and 2021, with dyads significantly more likely to receive the full bundle in 2021 compared with 2019 (probability=0.96 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.99), p<0.001). When examining the impact on psychological safety and team-working of PERIPrem, linear mixed models indicated an improvement in team function (p=0.021), situation monitoring (p=0.029) and communication within teams (p=0.002). Central to success was the development of a committed multiorganisational collaborative that continues to drive perinatal improvement using a common language and streamlining processes. In addition to saving the lives of the most vulnerable babies, PERIPrem aims to improve the chances of disability-free lives and is successfully nurturing high-functioning perinatal teams with enhanced QI skills.

Estimating the impact of changes in weight and BMI on EQ-5D-3L: a longitudinal analysis of a behavioural group-based weight loss intervention.

PURPOSE: To estimate the association between changes in BMI and changes in Health-Related Quality of Life (EQ-5D-3L). METHODS: The WRAP trial was a multicentre, randomised controlled trial with parallel design and recruited 1267 adults (BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2). Participants were allocated to Brief Intervention, a Commercial weight management Programme (WW, formerly Weight Watchers) for 12 weeks, or the same Programme for 52 weeks. Participants were assessed at 0, 3, 12, 24, and 60 months. We analysed the relationship between BMI and EQ-5D-3L, adjusting for age and comorbidities, using a fixed effects model. Test for attrition, model specification and missing data were conducted. Secondary analyses investigated a non-symmetric gradient for weight loss vs. regain. RESULTS: A unit increase in BMI was associated with a - 0.011 (95% CI - 0.01546, - 0.00877) change in EQ-5D-3L. A unit change in BMI between periods of observation was associated with - 0.016 017 (95% CI - 0.0077009, - 0.025086) change in EQ-5D-3L. The negative association was reduced during weight loss, as opposed to weight gain, but the difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between BMI changes and HRQoL. These estimates could be used in economic evaluations of weight loss interventions to inform policymaking. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN82857232.

Using health economic modelling to inform the design and development of an intervention: estimating the justifiable cost of weight loss maintenance in the UK.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to develop cost-effective weight loss maintenance interventions to prolong the positive impact of weight loss on health outcomes. Conducting pre-trial health economic modelling is recommended to inform the design and development of behavioural interventions. We aimed to use health economic modelling to estimate the maximum cost per-person (justifiable cost) of a cost-effective behavioural weight loss maintenance intervention, given an estimated intervention effect for individuals with: i) a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 28 kg/m2 or above without diabetes and ii) a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes prescribed a single non-insulin diabetes medication. METHODS: The School for Public Health Research Diabetes prevention model was used to estimate the lifetime Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains, healthcare costs, and maximum justifiable cost associated with a weight loss maintenance intervention. Based on a meta-analysis, the estimated effect of a weight loss maintenance intervention following a 9 kg weight loss, was a regain of 1.33 kg and 4.38 kg in years one and two respectively compared to greater regain of 2.84 kg and 5.6 kg in the control group. Sensitivity analysis was conducted around the rate of regain, duration of effect and initial weight loss. RESULTS: The justifiable cost for a weight loss maintenance intervention at an ICER of £20,000 per QALY was £104.64 for an individual with a BMI of 28 or over and £88.14 for an individual with type 2 diabetes. Within sensitivity analysis, this varied from £36.42 to £203.77 for the former, and between £29.98 and £173.05 for the latter. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers developing a weight loss maintenance intervention should consider these maximum justifiable cost estimates and the potential impact of the duration of effect and initial weight loss when designing intervention content and deciding target populations. Future research should consider using the methods demonstrated in this study to use health economic modelling to inform the design and budgetary decisions in the development of a behavioural interventions.

Development of a Web-Based, Guided Self-help, Acceptance and Commitment Therapy-Based Intervention for Weight Loss Maintenance: Evidence-, Theory-, and Person-Based Approach.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of weight management programs depend on posttreatment weight maintenance. There is growing evidence that interventions based on third-wave cognitive behavioral therapy, particularly acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), could improve long-term weight management; however, these interventions are typically delivered face-to-face by psychologists, which limits the scalability of these types of intervention. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to use an evidence-, theory-, and person-based approach to develop an ACT-based intervention for weight loss maintenance that uses digital technology and nonspecialist guidance to minimize the resources needed for delivery at scale. METHODS: Intervention development was guided by the Medical Research Council framework for the development of complex interventions in health care, Intervention Mapping Protocol, and a person-based approach for enhancing the acceptability and feasibility of interventions. Work was conducted in two phases: phase 1 consisted of collating and analyzing existing and new primary evidence and phase 2 consisted of theoretical modeling and intervention development. Phase 1 included a synthesis of existing evidence on weight loss maintenance from previous research, a systematic review and network meta-analysis of third-wave cognitive behavioral therapy interventions for weight management, a qualitative interview study of experiences of weight loss maintenance, and the modeling of a justifiable cost for a weight loss maintenance program. Phase 2 included the iterative development of guiding principles, a logic model, and the intervention design and content. Target user and stakeholder panels were established to inform each phase of development, and user testing of successive iterations of the prototype intervention was conducted. RESULTS: This process resulted in a guided self-help ACT-based intervention called SWiM (Supporting Weight Management). SWiM is a 4-month program consisting of weekly web-based sessions for 13 consecutive weeks followed by a 4-week break for participants to reflect and practice their new skills and a final session at week 18. Each session consists of psychoeducational content, reflective exercises, and behavioral experiments. SWiM includes specific sessions on key determinants of weight loss maintenance, including developing skills to manage high-risk situations for lapses, creating new helpful habits, breaking old unhelpful habits, and learning to manage interpersonal relationships and their impact on weight management. A trained, nonspecialist coach provides guidance for the participants through the program with 4 scheduled 30-minute telephone calls and 3 further optional calls. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive approach facilitated the development of an intervention that is based on scientific theory and evidence for supporting people with weight loss maintenance and is grounded in the experiences of the target users and the context in which it is intended to be delivered. The intervention will be refined based on the findings of a planned pilot randomized controlled trial.

Individualised decision making: interpretation of risk for extremely preterm infants-a survey of UK neonatal professionals.

BACKGROUND: The British Association of Perinatal Medicine (BAPM) published a revised framework for perinatal management of extremely preterm infants (EPIs) in 2019. We aimed to assess UK neonatal professionals' interpretation of elements of this framework, as well as the consistency of their estimates of outcome for EPIs. METHODS: An online survey gave participants five cases involving anticipated extremely preterm birth with different favourable and unfavourable risk factors. Respondents were asked to assign a risk category and management option using the BAPM framework and to estimate the chance of survival if the baby received active resuscitation and the chance of severe disability if they survived. RESULTS: Respondents were consistent in interpretation of risk categories. The majority would follow parental wishes about management. Management decisions did not always correspond with risk assessment, with less inclination to recommend palliative (comfort) care. There were wide estimates of survival or severe disability (5%-90%) with consultants providing lower estimates of severe disability than other groups. CONCLUSION: UK neonatal professionals deferred to parental wishes in the cases presented, indicating an emphasis on shared decision making. However, they did not necessarily use the risk stratification approach for management decisions. Variation in estimates of outcome raises questions about the accuracy of informed decision making and suggests support is needed for UK clinicians to incorporate risk factors into individualised counselling. There may be value in validating existing online risk calculators for UK infants or in developing a UK specific risk model.

Mechanisms of Action in a Behavioral Weight-Management Program: Latent Growth Curve Analysis.

BACKGROUND: A greater understanding of the mechanisms of action of weight-management interventions is needed to inform the design of effective interventions. PURPOSE: To investigate whether dietary restraint, habit strength, or diet self-regulation mediated the impact of a behavioral weight-management intervention on weight loss and weight loss maintenance. METHODS: Latent growth curve analysis (LGCA) was conducted on trial data in which adults (N = 1,267) with a body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2 were randomized to either a brief intervention (booklet on losing weight), a 12 week weight-management program or the same program for 52 weeks. LGCA estimated the trajectory of the variables over four time points (baseline and 3, 12 and 24 months) to assess whether potential mechanisms of action mediated the impact of the weight-management program on BMI. RESULTS: Participants randomized to the 12 and 52 week programs had a significantly greater decrease in BMI than the brief intervention. This direct effect became nonsignificant when dietary restraint, habit strength, and autonomous diet self-regulation were controlled for. The total indirect effect was significant for both the 12 (estimate = -1.33, standard error [SE] = 0.41, p = .001) and 52 week (estimate = -2.13, SE = 0.52, p < .001) program. Only the individual indirect effect for dietary restraint was significant for the 12 week intervention, whereas all three indirect effects were significant for the 52 week intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Behavior change techniques that target dietary restraint, habit strength, and autonomous diet self-regulation should be considered when designing weight loss and weight loss maintenance interventions. Longer interventions may need to target both deliberative and automatic control processes to support successful weight management.

Viability and thresholds for treatment of extremely preterm infants: survey of UK neonatal professionals.

BACKGROUND: Decisions about treatments for extremely preterm infants (EPIs) born in the 'grey zone' of viability can be ethically complex. This 2020 survey aimed to determine views of UK neonatal staff about thresholds for treatment of EPIs given a recently revised national Framework for Practice from the British Association of Perinatal Medicine. METHODS: The online survey requested participants indicate the lowest gestation at which they would be willing to offer active treatment and the highest gestation at which they would withhold active treatment of an EPI at parental request (their lower and upper thresholds). Relative risks were used to compare respondents' views based on profession and neonatal unit designation. Further questions explored respondents' conceptual understanding of viability. RESULTS: 336 respondents included 167 consultants, 127 registrars/fellows and 42 advanced neonatal nurse practitioners (ANNPs). Respondents reported a median grey zone for neonatal resuscitation between 22+1 and 24+0 weeks' gestation. Registrars/fellows were more likely to select a lower threshold at 22+0 weeks compared with consultants (Relative Risk (RR)=1.37 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.74)) and ANNPs (RR=2.68 (95% CI 1.42 to 5.06)). Those working in neonatal intensive care units compared with other units were also more likely to offer active treatment at 22+0 weeks (RR=1.86 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.94)). Most participants understood a fetus/newborn to be 'viable' if it was possible to survive, regardless of disability, with medical interventions accessible to the treating team. CONCLUSION: Compared with previous studies, we found a shift in the reported lower threshold for resuscitation in the UK, with greater acceptance of active treatment for infants <23 weeks' gestation.

Systematic review and meta-analyses of the relationship between short sleep and incidence of obesity and effectiveness of sleep interventions on weight gain in preschool children.

The aim of this study is to determine (a) whether short sleep is associated with the incidence of obesity and (b) whether interventions beneficial for sleep reduce weight gain in preschool children. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane up to 12/09/2019. (a) Studies that were included were prospective, had follow-up ≥1 year, with sleep duration at baseline and required outcome measures. (b) Intervention trials with sleep intervention and measures of overweight or obesity were included. Data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines. (a) The risk of developing overweight/obesity was greater in short sleeping children (13 studies, 42 878 participants, RR: 1.54; 95% CI, 1.33 to 1.77; p < 0.001). Sleep duration was associated with a significant change in BMI z-score (10 studies, 11 cohorts and 29 553 participants) (mean difference: -0.02 unit per hour sleep; -0.03 to -0.01; p < 0.001). (b) Four of the five intervention studies reported improved outcomes: for BMI (-0.27 kg/m2 ; -0.50 to -0.03; p = 0.03); for BMI z-score (-0.07 unit; -0.12 to -0.02; p = 0.006). Short sleep duration is a risk factor or marker of the development of obesity in preschool children. Intervention studies suggest that improved sleep may be beneficially associated with a reduced weight gain in these children.

Non-Vocal Behaviors Are More Frequent During the Decisive Negotiation Phases in Barn Owl Siblings.

Animals produce vibrations or noises by means of body movements, which can play a role in communication. These behaviors enhance signal transmission or receiver attention and could be specifically used during turn-taking phases of a reciprocal exchange of signals. In the barn owl Tyto alba, nestlings vocalize one after the other to negotiate which individual will have priority access to the impending prey item to be delivered by the parents. Owlets adjust their vocalization to their own hunger level and to their siblings' vocalization, withdrawing from the contest in front of highly vocal, and hence hungry, motivated nestmates. As sibling negotiation is a multicomponent display, we examined whether body movements could also be part of the negotiation process. To this end, we analyzed whether the vocalizations of one nestling affected its nestmate's movements in three separate experiments: in natural nests, in the lab, and using a playback procedure. Nestling barn owls move in a variety of ways, such as repeated tapping of the floor with a foot, scratching the floor with claws, or flapping wings. Body movements were more frequent during the turn-taking phases of vocal interactions, when siblings emitted longer calls and at a greater rate. Once an individual monopolized vocal activity, siblings became less vocal and less active. Moreover, owlets produced more noisy body movements during the phases of vocal interactions which are crucial to prevail in negotiation. Non-vocal physical activities might reinforce vocal signals during sibling to sibling (sib-sib) interactions, or reflect owlets' arousal, in the critical period during which they vocally settle which individual will dominate the competition.

Strategic vision for improving human health at The Forefront of Genomics.

Starting with the launch of the Human Genome Project three decades ago, and continuing after its completion in 2003, genomics has progressively come to have a central and catalytic role in basic and translational research. In addition, studies increasingly demonstrate how genomic information can be effectively used in clinical care. In the future, the anticipated advances in technology development, biological insights, and clinical applications (among others) will lead to more widespread integration of genomics into almost all areas of biomedical research, the adoption of genomics into mainstream medical and public-health practices, and an increasing relevance of genomics for everyday life. On behalf of the research community, the National Human Genome Research Institute recently completed a multi-year process of strategic engagement to identify future research priorities and opportunities in human genomics, with an emphasis on health applications. Here we describe the highest-priority elements envisioned for the cutting-edge of human genomics going forward-that is, at 'The Forefront of Genomics'.

Phylogenetic signals and predictability in plant-soil feedbacks.

There is strong evidence for a phylogenetic signal in the degree to which species share co-evolved biotic partners and in the outcomes of biotic interactions. This implies there should be a phylogenetic signal in the outcome of feedbacks between plants and the soil microbiota they cultivate. However, attempts to identify a phylogenetic signal in plant-soil feedbacks have produced mixed results. Here we clarify how phylogenetic signals could arise in plant-soil feedbacks and use a recent compilation of data from feedback experiments to identify: whether there is a phylogenetic signal in the outcome of plant-soil feedbacks; and whether any signal arises through directional or divergent changes in feedback outcomes with evolutionary time. We find strong evidence for a divergent phylogenetic signal in feedback outcomes. Distantly related plant species show more divergent responses to each other's soil microbiota compared with closely related plant species. The pattern of divergence implies occasional co-evolutionary shifts in how plants interact with soil microbiota, with strongly contrasting feedback responses among some plant lineages. Our results highlight that it is difficult to predict feedback outcomes from phylogeny alone, other than to say that more closely related species tend to have more similar responses.

Third-wave cognitive behaviour therapies for weight management: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

This systematic review and network meta-analysis synthesized evidence on the effects of third-wave cognitive behaviour therapies (3wCBT) on body weight, and psychological and physical health outcomes in adults with overweight or obesity. Studies that included a 3wCBT for the purposes of weight management and measured weight or body mass index (BMI) pre-intervention and ≥ 3 months post-baseline were identified through database searches (MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Cochrane database [CENTRAL], PsycINFO, AMED, ASSIA, and Web of Science). Thirty-seven studies were eligible; 21 were randomized controlled trials (RCT) and included in the network meta-analyses. Risk of bias was assessed using RoB2, and evidence quality was assessed using GRADE. Random-effects pairwise meta-analysis found moderate- to high-quality evidence suggesting that 3wCBT had greater weight loss than standard behavioural treatment (SBT) at post-intervention (standardized mean difference [SMD]: -0.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.22, 0.04; N = 19; I2 = 32%), 12 months (SMD: -0.17, 95% CI: -0.36, 0.02; N = 5; I2 = 33%), and 24 months (SMD: -0.21, 95% CI: -0.42, 0.00; N = 2; I2 = 0%). Network meta-analysis compared the relative effectiveness of different types of 3wCBT that were not tested in head-to-head trials up to 18 months. Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT)-based interventions had the most consistent evidence of effectiveness. Only ACT had RCT evidence of effectiveness beyond 18 months. Meta-regression did not identify any specific intervention characteristics (dose, duration, delivery) that were associated with greater weight loss. Evidence supports the use of 3wCBT for weight management, specifically ACT. Larger trials with long-term follow-up are needed to identify who these interventions work for, their most effective components, and the most cost-effective method of delivery.

A Systematic Review of Methods to Predict Weight Trajectories in Health Economic Models of Behavioral Weight-Management Programs: The Potential Role of Psychosocial Factors.

Objectives. There is limited evidence on the long-term effectiveness of behavioral weight-management interventions, and thus, when conducting health economic modeling, assumptions are made about weight trajectories. The aims of this review were to examine these assumptions made about weight trajectories, the evidence sources used to justify them, and the impact of assumptions on estimated cost-effectiveness. Given the evidence that some psychosocial variables are associated with weight-loss trajectories, we also aimed to examine the extent to which psychosocial variables have been used to estimate weight trajectories and whether psychosocial variables were measured within cited evidence sources. Methods. A search of databases (Medline, PubMed, Cochrane, NHS Economic Evaluation, Embase, PSYCinfo, CINAHL, EconLit) was conducted using keywords related to overweight, weight-management, and economic evaluation. Economic evaluations of weight-management interventions that included modeling beyond trial data were included. Results. Within the 38 eligible articles, 6 types of assumptions were reported (weight loss maintained, weight loss regained immediately, linear weight regain, subgroup-specific trajectories, exponential decay of effect, maintenance followed by regain). Fifteen articles cited at least 1 evidence source to support the assumption reported. The assumption used affected the assessment of cost-effectiveness in 9 of the 19 studies that tested this in sensitivity analyses. None of the articles reported using psychosocial factors to estimate weight trajectories. However, psychosocial factors were measured in evidence sources cited by 11 health economic models. Conclusions. Given the range of weight trajectories reported and the potential impact on funding decisions, further research is warranted to investigate how psychosocial variables measured in trials can be used within health economic models to simulate heterogeneous weight trajectories and potentially improve the accuracy of cost-effectiveness estimates.

Elevated International Normalized Ratio (INR) is Associated With an Increased Risk of Intraventricular Hemorrhage in Extremely Preterm Infants.

INTRODUCTION: The international normalized ratio (INR), a standardized method of reporting the prothrombin time, can be a surrogate marker of the vitamin K-dependent coagulation pathways. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between INR measurements in the first 48 hours of life and subsequent development of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in extremely preterm infants. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A single-center retrospective, observational cohort study of infants born at <28 weeks gestation. The main outcome measure was defined as the degree of IVH seen on cranial ultrasound examinations at day 7 postnatal age. RESULTS: Of 200 infants, 109 (mean gestational age, 25.2 wk [SD, 1.27]) had coagulation results available. Of 109, 26 developed IVH. Elevated INR was associated with increased risk of a severe IVH (odds ratio [OR] 6.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65-25.62; P=0.008) adjusted for gestation, birth weight, and sex. INR was significantly associated with severe IVH in infants who did not receive blood products (OR, 64.60; 95% CI, 1.35-3081.25; P=0.035), but not in those who did (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 0.67-12.71; P=0.151) (Pinteraction=0.086). CONCLUSION: An elevated INR in the first 48 hours of life may be useful to identify preterm infants at risk of severe IVH and may guide strategies to prevent the development, or limit the extension, of IVH.

Delayed cord clamping with stabilisation at all preterm births - feasibility and efficacy of a low cost technique.

OBJECTIVES: Meta-analysis data suggests that Delayed cord clamping (DCC) in preterm infants is associated with a 32% reduction in mortality. Reported rates of this intervention are low, particularly for caesarean deliveries. Perceived difficulties providing respiratory support and thermal care during DCC may be barriers to implementation of this intervention. Commercially available equipment to facilitate this can be expensive. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of a simple, low cost technique to deliver respiratory support and thermal care during DCC at all preterm deliveries (including caesarean), with the hypothesis that this could increase rates of preterm infants receiving DCC. STUDY DESIGN: Data was collected retrospectively from 46 infants born at <32 weeks gestation in 2015. The technique was introduced in early 2017, as part of a perinatal Quality Improvement project. Data was collected prospectively from 63 infants born at <32 weeks gestation in 2017-2018. RESULTS: Rates of DCC in infants born <32 weeks gestation have increased from 12.5% in 2015 to 89.4% in 2017-2018. In 2017-2018, thermal care and respiratory support was provided to all infants who received DCC. CONCLUSION: Multidisciplinary perinatal team working allowed development of a simple, low cost technique to deliver DCC at all preterm deliveries. We have demonstrated feasibility and efficacy of this technique, and a significant and sustained improvement in rates of DCC in our preterm population. We hope that by sharing this approach, other centres will be able to implement a similar strategy, closing the gap between evidence base and translation into clinical practice, and allowing provision of DCC for preterm infants as a standard part of high quality perinatal care.

Awareness of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer is associated with public support for alcohol policies.

BACKGROUND: Globally, alcohol is causally related to 2.5 million deaths per year and 12.5% of these are due to cancer. Previous research has indicated that public awareness of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer is low and this may contribute to a lack of public support for alcohol policies. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between awareness of the alcohol-cancer link and support for a range of alcohol policies in an English sample and policy context. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 2100 adult residents in England was conducted in which respondents answered questions regarding awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer and support for 21 policy proposals. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the 21 policy proposals down to a set of underlying factors. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to estimate the relationship between awareness of the alcohol-cancer link and each of these policy factors. RESULTS: Thirteen per cent of the sample were aware of the alcohol-cancer link unprompted, a further 34% were aware when prompted and 53% were not aware of the link. PCA reduced the policy items to four policy factors, which were named price and availability, marketing and information, harm reduction and drink driving. Awareness of the alcohol-cancer link unprompted was associated with increased support for each of four underlying policy factors: price and availability (Beta: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.10), marketing and information (Beta: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.09), harm reduction (Beta: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.14), and drink driving (Beta: 0.16, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Support for alcohol policies is greater among individuals who are aware of the link between alcohol and cancer. At the same time, a large proportion of people are unaware of the alcohol-cancer link and so increasing awareness may be an effective approach to increasing support for alcohol policies.