External costs of electricity generation in 27 European countries from 2010-2030: Pathway toward sustainability or business as usual?

Electricity generation in Europe is undergoing a fundamental change. The aim is to increase sustainability by reducing emissions. Each country has a different electricity mix, and there is no established method for measuring environmental impacts of electricity production with a single monetary indicator, in a uniform manner, and with country-specific data. To address this gap, a model that measures the costs of 19 environmental externalities (usually, types of emissions) has been developed. Using country-specific technologies, electricity mixes, and external cost rates, the development of external costs of generating electricity in 27 European countries between 2010 and 2030 is assessed and analyzed. The simulation results show that the external costs vary heavily between 2.1 and 22.4 euro cents per kWh in this period. Despite the initiated transformation of the energy systems in many EU countries, external costs per kWh are decreasing in only eight of them. This fact underlines the need for a drastic change in national energy strategies. Overall, the results show that more far-reaching policy measures are needed in order to significantly reduce the external costs of the energy sector in Europe. The article raises the level of granularity of research on the external costs of electricity in Europe by combining extensive country-specific emission data and country-specific external cost rates.

Public health critical race praxis at the intersection of traffic stops and injury epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: Law enforcement traffic stops are one of the most common entryways to the US justice system. Conventional frameworks suggest traffic stops promote public safety by reducing dangerous driving practices and non-vehicular crime with little to no collateral damage to individuals and communities. Critical frameworks interrogate these assumptions, identifying significant individual and community harms that disparately impact Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) and low-income communities. METHODS: The Public Health Critical Race Praxis (PHCRP) and multi-level frameworks from community anti-racist training were combined into a structured diagram to guide intervention and research teams in contrasting conventional and critical perspectives on traffic stops. The diagram divides law enforcement and drivers/residents as two separate agent types that interact during traffic stops. These two agent types have different conventional and critical histories, priorities, and perspectives at multiple levels, including individual, interpersonal, institutional, and cultural levels. Conventional solutions (identifying explicitly racist officers, "meet-a-cop" programs, police interaction training for drivers) are born from conventional frameworks (rewarding crime prevention regardless of cost, the war on drugs saves lives, driver behavior perfectionism). While conventional perspectives focus on individual and interpersonal levels, critical perspectives more deeply acknowledge dynamics at institutional and cultural levels. Critical solutions may be hard to discover without critical frameworks, including that law enforcement creates measurable collateral damage and disparate social control effects; neighborhood patrol priorities can be set without community self-determination or accountability and may trump individual and interpersonal dynamics; and the war on drugs is highly racialized and disproportionally enforced through traffic stop programs. CONCLUSIONS: Traffic stop enforcement and crash prevention programs that do not deeply and critically consider these dynamics at multiple levels, not just law enforcement-driver interactions at the individual and interpersonal levels, may be at increased risk of propagating histories of BIPOC discrimination. In contrast, public health and transportation researchers and practitioners engaged in crash and injury prevention strategies that employ law enforcement should critically consider disparate history and impacts of law enforcement in BIPOC communities. PHCRP, anti-racism frameworks, and the included diagram may assist them in organizing critical thinking about research studies, interventions, and impacts.

Agenda dynamics in Latin America: theoretical and empirical opportunities / Dinámica de la Agenda de Políticas Públicas en América Latina: oportunidades teóricas y empíricas / Dinâmicas da agenda de políticas públicas na América Latina: oportunidades teóricas e empíricas

Abstract The Comparative Agendas Project (CAP) collects, organizes, and makes freely available millions of bits of information concerning the objects of government attention over long periods of time (often back to the Second World War) for more than 25 political systems, worldwide. As researchers affiliated with the CAP expand their projects into Latin America, they confront some challenges similar to those from other regions, and some unique to their national political systems. In this introductory essay, we explore the background of the CAP and the opportunities posed by its expansion into Latin American political systems.

Resumen: El Comparative Agendas Project (CAP, por sus siglas en inglés) recopila, organiza y pone a disposición de forma gratuita millones de datos sobre los temas que han sido priorizados por parte de políticos y gobernantes en más de 25 sistemas políticos de todo el mundo. Estas bases de datos abarcan un período de tiempo largo, que en la mayoría de casos comienza tras el fin de la Segunda Guerra Mundial). Los investigadores que desarrollan proyectos siguiendo la metodología del CAP en América Latina tienen que hacer frente a los desafíos comunes que los investigadores han encontrado al analizar la agenda política, a otros exclusivos de los sistemas políticos de los países de esta región. En este ensayo introductorio, exploramos los antecedentes del CAP y las oportunidades que se presentan con su expansión a los sistemas políticos latinoamericanos.

Resumo O Comparative Agendas Project (CAP) coleta, organiza e disponibiliza gratuitamente milhões de dados sobre os temas que têm chamado a atenção de governos em mais de 25 sistemas políticos de todo mundo. Os dados disponíveis compreendem um longo período desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Na expansão de seus projetos para a América Latina, os pesquisadores ligados ao CAP enfrentam, além de desafios comuns aqueles encontrados globalmente, outras adversidades particulares dos sistemas políticos adotados nas nações da região. Neste ensaio introdutório, exploramos os antecedentes do CAP e as oportunidades que se apresentam com sua expansão aos sistemas políticos latino-americanos.

Learning to kill: Why a small handful of counties generates the bulk of US death sentences.

We demonstrate strong self-referential effects in county-level data concerning use of the death penalty. We first show event-dependency using a repeated-event model. Higher numbers of previous events reduce the expected time delay before the next event. Second, we use a cross-sectional time-series approach to model the number of death sentences imposed in a given county in a given year. This model shows that the cumulative number of death sentences previously imposed in the same county is a strong predictor of the number imposed in a given year. Results raise troubling substantive implications: The number of death sentences in a given county in a given year is better predicted by that county's previous experience in imposing death than by the number of homicides. This explains the previously observed fact that a large share of death sentences come from a small number of counties and documents the self-referential aspects of use the death penalty. A death sentencing system based on racial dynamics and then amplified by self-referential dynamics is inconsistent with equal protection of the law, but this describes the United States system well.

Re-prioritizing traffic stops to reduce motor vehicle crash outcomes and racial disparities.

BACKGROUND: Law enforcement traffic stops are one of the most common entryways to the US justice system. Conventional frameworks suggest traffic stops promote public safety by reducing dangerous driving practices and non-vehicular crime. Law enforcement agencies have wide latitude in enforcement, including prioritization of stop types: (1) safety (e.g. moving violation) stops, (2) investigatory stops, or (3) economic (regulatory and equipment) stops. In order to prevent traffic crash fatalities and reduce racial disparities, the police department of Fayetteville, North Carolina significantly re-prioritized safety stops. METHODS: Annual traffic stop, motor vehicle crash, and crime data from 2002 to 2016 were combined to examine intervention (2013-2016) effects. Fayetteville was compared against synthetic control agencies built from 8 similar North Carolina agencies by weighted matching on pre-intervention period trends and comparison against post-intervention trends. RESULTS: On average over the intervention period as compared to synthetic controls, Fayetteville increased both the number of safety stops + 121% (95% confidence interval + 17%, + 318%) and the relative proportion of safety stops (+ 47%). Traffic crash and injury outcomes were reduced, including traffic fatalities - 28% (- 64%, + 43%), injurious crashes - 23% (- 49%, + 16%), and total crashes - 13% (- 48%, + 21%). Disparity measures were reduced, including Black percent of traffic stops - 7% (- 9%, - 5%) and Black vs. White traffic stop rate ratio - 21% (- 29%, - 13%). In contrast to the Ferguson Effect hypothesis, the relative de-prioritization of investigatory stops was not associated with an increase in non-traffic crime outcomes, which were reduced or unchanged, including index crimes - 10% (- 25%, + 8%) and violent crimes - 2% (- 33%, + 43%). Confidence intervals were estimated using a different technique and, given small samples, may be asymmetrical. CONCLUSIONS: The re-prioritization of traffic stop types by law enforcement agencies may have positive public health consequences both for motor vehicle injury and racial disparity outcomes while having little impact on non-traffic crime.

Event dependence in U.S. executions.

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution.

Understanding selection bias, time-lags and measurement bias in secondary data sources: Putting the Encyclopedia of Associations database in broader context.

Secondary data gathered for purposes other than research play an important role in the social sciences. A recent data release has made an important source of publicly available data on associational interests, the Encyclopedia of Associations (EA), readily accessible to scholars (www.policyagendas.org). In this paper we introduce these new data and systematically investigate issues of lag between events and subsequent reporting in the EA, as these have important but under-appreciated effects on time-series statistical models. We further analyze the accuracy and coverage of the database in numerous ways. Our study serves as a guide to potential users of this database, but we also reflect upon a number of issues that should concern all researchers who use secondary data such as newspaper records, IRS reports and FBI Uniform Crime Reports.

Stark field control of nonadiabatic dynamics in triatomic hydrogen.

We show experimentally that an external electric field can be used to control the amplitudes of nonadiabatic paths taken by a dissociating molecule. In the example presented here, this control is achieved by Stark-field mixing in H(3) Rydberg states with different decay paths. The final state continuum is in each path formed by three-particle wave packets of slow neutral hydrogen atoms in their electronic ground state. Their momentum vector correlations show signs of interference, since the molecule can access the identical continuum via two distinctly different paths, involving different nonadiabatic coupling mechanisms. As an added feature a preferred alignment of the fragmentation plane in the laboratory frame emerges, corresponding to a selective dissociation of molecules oriented along the field direction.

Direct cross-talk of interleukin-6 and insulin signal transduction via insulin receptor substrate-1 in skeletal muscle cells.

The exercise-induced interleukin (IL)-6 production and secretion within skeletal muscle fibers has raised the question of a putative tissue-specific function of IL-6 in the energy metabolism of the muscle during and after the exercise. In the present study, we followed the hypothesis that IL-6 signaling may directly interact with insulin receptor substrate (IRS)-1, a keystone in the insulin signaling cascade. We showed that IL-6 induces a rapid recruitment of IRS-1 to the IL-6 receptor complex in cultured skeletal muscle cells. Moreover, IL-6 induced a rapid and transient phosphorylation of Ser-318 of IRS-1 in muscle cells and in muscle tissue, but not in the liver of IL-6-treated mice, probably via the IL-6-induced co-recruitment of protein kinase C-delta. This Ser-318 phosphorylation improved insulin-stimulated Akt phosphorylation and glucose uptake in myotubes since transfection with an IRS-1/Glu-318 mutant simulating a permanent phospho-Ser-318 modification increased Akt phosphorylation and glucose uptake. Noteworthily, two inhibitory mechanisms of IL-6 on insulin action, phosphorylation of the inhibitory Ser-307 residue of IRS-1 and induction of SOCS-3 expression, were only found in liver but not in muscle of IL-6-treated mice. Thus, the data provided evidence for a possible molecular mechanism of the physiological metabolic effects of IL-6 in skeletal muscle, thereby exerting short term beneficial effects on insulin action.