Exome sequencing identifies breast cancer susceptibility genes and defines the contribution of coding variants to breast cancer risk.

Linkage and candidate gene studies have identified several breast cancer susceptibility genes, but the overall contribution of coding variation to breast cancer is unclear. To evaluate the role of rare coding variants more comprehensively, we performed a meta-analysis across three large whole-exome sequencing datasets, containing 26,368 female cases and 217,673 female controls. Burden tests were performed for protein-truncating and rare missense variants in 15,616 and 18,601 genes, respectively. Associations between protein-truncating variants and breast cancer were identified for the following six genes at exome-wide significance (P < 2.5 × 10-6): the five known susceptibility genes ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 and PALB2, together with MAP3K1. Associations were also observed for LZTR1, ATR and BARD1 with P < 1 × 10-4. Associations between predicted deleterious rare missense or protein-truncating variants and breast cancer were additionally identified for CDKN2A at exome-wide significance. The overall contribution of coding variants in genes beyond the previously known genes is estimated to be small.

Breast Cancer Risk in Women from Ghana Carrying Rare Germline Pathogenic Mutations.

BACKGROUND: Risk estimates for women carrying germline mutations in breast cancer susceptibility genes are mainly based on studies of European ancestry women. METHODS: We investigated associations between pathogenic variants (PV) in 34 genes with breast cancer risk in 871 cases [307 estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, 321 ER-negative, and 243 ER-unknown] and 1,563 controls in the Ghana Breast Health Study (GBHS), and estimated lifetime risk for carriers. We compared results with those for European, Asian, and African American ancestry women. RESULTS: The frequency of PV in GBHS for nine breast cancer genes was 8.38% in cases and 1.22% in controls. Relative risk estimates for overall breast cancer were: (OR, 13.70; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.03-46.51) for BRCA1, (OR, 7.02; 95% CI, 3.17-15.54) for BRCA2, (OR, 17.25; 95% CI, 2.15-138.13) for PALB2, 5 cases and no controls carried TP53 PVs, and 2.10, (0.72-6.14) for moderate-risk genes combined (ATM, BARD1, CHEK2, RAD51C, RAD52D). These estimates were similar to those previously reported in other populations and were modified by ER status. No other genes evaluated had mutations associated at P < 0.05 with overall risk. The estimated lifetime risks for mutation carriers in BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 and moderate-risk genes were 18.4%, 9.8%, 22.4%, and 3.1%, respectively, markedly lower than in Western populations with higher baseline risks. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed associations between PV and breast cancer risk in Ghanaian women and provide absolute risk estimates that could inform counseling in Ghana and other West African countries. IMPACT: These findings have direct relevance for breast cancer genetic counseling for women in West Africa.

Characterisation of protein-truncating and missense variants in PALB2 in 15 768 women from Malaysia and Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Rare protein-truncating variants (PTVs) in partner and localiser of BRCA2 (PALB2) confer increased risk to breast cancer, but relatively few studies have reported the prevalence in South-East Asian populations. Here, we describe the prevalence of rare variants in PALB2 in a population-based study of 7840 breast cancer cases and 7928 healthy Chinese, Malay and Indian women from Malaysia and Singapore, and describe the functional impact of germline missense variants identified in this population. METHODS: Mutation testing was performed on germline DNA (n=15 768) using targeted sequencing panels. The functional impact of missense variants was tested in mouse embryonic stem cell based functional assays. RESULTS: PTVs in PALB2 were found in 0.73% of breast cancer patients and 0.14% of healthy individuals (OR=5.44; 95% CI 2.85 to 10.39, p<0.0001). In contrast, rare missense variants in PALB2 were not associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Whereas PTVs were associated with later stage of presentation and higher-grade tumours, no significant association was observed with missense variants in PALB2. However, two novel rare missense variants (p.L1027R and p.G1043V) produced unstable proteins and resulted in a decrease in homologous recombination-mediated repair of DNA double-strand breaks. CONCLUSION: Despite genetic and lifestyle differences between Asian and other populations, the population prevalence of PALB2 PTVs and associated relative risk of breast cancer, are similar to those reported in European populations.

Author Correction: A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23162-4.

A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Breast cancer (BC) risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers varies by genetic and familial factors. About 50 common variants have been shown to modify BC risk for mutation carriers. All but three, were identified in general population studies. Other mutation carrier-specific susceptibility variants may exist but studies of mutation carriers have so far been underpowered. We conduct a novel case-only genome-wide association study comparing genotype frequencies between 60,212 general population BC cases and 13,007 cases with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We identify robust novel associations for 2 variants with BC for BRCA1 and 3 for BRCA2 mutation carriers, P < 10-8, at 5 loci, which are not associated with risk in the general population. They include rs60882887 at 11p11.2 where MADD, SP11 and EIF1, genes previously implicated in BC biology, are predicted as potential targets. These findings will contribute towards customising BC polygenic risk scores for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Breast Cancer Risk Genes - Association Analysis in More than 113,000 Women.

BACKGROUND: Genetic testing for breast cancer susceptibility is widely used, but for many genes, evidence of an association with breast cancer is weak, underlying risk estimates are imprecise, and reliable subtype-specific risk estimates are lacking. METHODS: We used a panel of 34 putative susceptibility genes to perform sequencing on samples from 60,466 women with breast cancer and 53,461 controls. In separate analyses for protein-truncating variants and rare missense variants in these genes, we estimated odds ratios for breast cancer overall and tumor subtypes. We evaluated missense-variant associations according to domain and classification of pathogenicity. RESULTS: Protein-truncating variants in 5 genes (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2) were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall with a P value of less than 0.0001. Protein-truncating variants in 4 other genes (BARD1, RAD51C, RAD51D, and TP53) were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall with a P value of less than 0.05 and a Bayesian false-discovery probability of less than 0.05. For protein-truncating variants in 19 of the remaining 25 genes, the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the odds ratio for breast cancer overall was less than 2.0. For protein-truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2, odds ratios were higher for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease than for ER-negative disease; for protein-truncating variants in BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, RAD51C, and RAD51D, odds ratios were higher for ER-negative disease than for ER-positive disease. Rare missense variants (in aggregate) in ATM, CHEK2, and TP53 were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall with a P value of less than 0.001. For BRCA1, BRCA2, and TP53, missense variants (in aggregate) that would be classified as pathogenic according to standard criteria were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall, with the risk being similar to that of protein-truncating variants. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study define the genes that are most clinically useful for inclusion on panels for the prediction of breast cancer risk, as well as provide estimates of the risks associated with protein-truncating variants, to guide genetic counseling. (Funded by European Union Horizon 2020 programs and others.).

CYP3A7*1C allele: linking premenopausal oestrone and progesterone levels with risk of hormone receptor-positive breast cancers.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies provide strong evidence for a role of endogenous sex hormones in the aetiology of breast cancer. The aim of this analysis was to identify genetic variants that are associated with urinary sex-hormone levels and breast cancer risk. METHODS: We carried out a genome-wide association study of urinary oestrone-3-glucuronide and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide levels in 560 premenopausal women, with additional analysis of progesterone levels in 298 premenopausal women. To test for the association with breast cancer risk, we carried out follow-up genotyping in 90,916 cases and 89,893 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. All women were of European ancestry. RESULTS: For pregnanediol-3-glucuronide, there were no genome-wide significant associations; for oestrone-3-glucuronide, we identified a single peak mapping to the CYP3A locus, annotated by rs45446698. The minor rs45446698-C allele was associated with lower oestrone-3-glucuronide (-49.2%, 95% CI -56.1% to -41.1%, P = 3.1 × 10-18); in follow-up analyses, rs45446698-C was also associated with lower progesterone (-26.7%, 95% CI -39.4% to -11.6%, P = 0.001) and reduced risk of oestrogen and progesterone receptor-positive breast cancer (OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.91, P = 6.9 × 10-8). CONCLUSIONS: The CYP3A7*1C allele is associated with reduced risk of hormone receptor-positive breast cancer possibly mediated via an effect on the metabolism of endogenous sex hormones in premenopausal women.

Targeted Resequencing of the Coding Sequence of 38 Genes Near Breast Cancer GWAS Loci in a Large Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Genes regulated by breast cancer risk alleles identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may harbor rare coding risk alleles. METHODS: We sequenced the coding regions for 38 genes within 500 kb of 38 lead GWAS SNPs in 13,538 breast cancer cases and 5,518 controls. RESULTS: Truncating variants in these genes were rare, and were not associated with breast cancer risk. Burden testing of rare missense variants highlighted 5 genes with some suggestion of an association with breast cancer, although none met the multiple testing thresholds: MKL1, FTO, NEK10, MDM4, and COX11. Six common alleles in COX11, MAP3K1 (two), and NEK10 (three) were associated at the P < 0.0001 significance level, but these likely reflect linkage disequilibrium with causal regulatory variants. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that rare coding variants in these genes confer substantial breast cancer risks. However, more modest effect sizes could not be ruled out. IMPACT: We tested the hypothesis that rare variants in 38 genes near breast cancer GWAS loci may mediate risk. These variants do not appear to play a major role in breast cancer heritability.

Low risk of invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast in carriers of BRCA1 (hereditary breast and ovarian cancer) and TP53 (Li-Fraumeni syndrome) germline mutations.

BACKGROUND: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) of the breast has epidemiological, molecular and clinical specificities, and should likely be considered a unique entity. As for genetic susceptibility, CDH1 germline mutations predispose exclusively to ILC. Data are however scarce regarding ILC in women with BRCA1/2 (Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer) and TP53 (Li-Fraumeni syndrome) germline mutations. METHODS: We included all breast cancers from female patients tested at our institute between 1992 and 2016 (n = 3469) for which pathology data were available. ILC proportion comparison according to mutational status was performed by a chi-squared test. The impact of susceptibility genes on ILC proportion was investigated by univariate logistic regression with wild-type patients as reference. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: There were 265 (7.64%) ILC: 2/342 (0.58%) in BRCA1 patients, 24/238 (10%) in BRCA2 patients, 1/57 (1.75%) in TP53 patients and 238/2832 (8.4%) in non-carriers. The majority of breast cancers in all groups were invasive ductal and ductal in situ carcinomas. The difference in ILC proportion was highly significant (P < 0.001). Compared to wild-type patients, BRCA1 was associated with a lower ILC proportion (OR 0.064 [95% CI 0.016;0.259], P < 0.0001). BRCA2 OR was 1.222 [95%CI 0.785;1.902] (P = 0.374), TP53 OR was 0.195 [95%CI 0.027;1.412] (P = 0.105). ILC are therefore underrepresented in BRCA1 and TP53 mutation carriers. Formal significance (P = 0.05) was not reached for TP53, but statistical power was only 38%. Based on ILC incidence in the general population, we make the hypothesis that BRCA1 and TP53 do not predispose to ILC, as the few occurrences of ILC in mutation carriers could be attributed to chance and not to germline mutations. Our observations will be useful to clinical cancer geneticists managing patients with ILC, as a BRCA1 or TP53 mutation in these patients would be unlikely. Genetic counseling should be adapted accordingly.

A transcriptome-wide association study of 229,000 women identifies new candidate susceptibility genes for breast cancer.

The breast cancer risk variants identified in genome-wide association studies explain only a small fraction of the familial relative risk, and the genes responsible for these associations remain largely unknown. To identify novel risk loci and likely causal genes, we performed a transcriptome-wide association study evaluating associations of genetically predicted gene expression with breast cancer risk in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. We used data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project to establish genetic models to predict gene expression in breast tissue and evaluated model performance using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Of the 8,597 genes evaluated, significant associations were identified for 48 at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P < 5.82 × 10-6, including 14 genes at loci not yet reported for breast cancer. We silenced 13 genes and showed an effect for 11 on cell proliferation and/or colony-forming efficiency. Our study provides new insights into breast cancer genetics and biology.

Inherited mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 in an unselected multiethnic cohort of Asian patients with breast cancer and healthy controls from Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Genetic testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2 is offered typically to selected women based on age of onset and family history of cancer. However, current internationally accepted genetic testing referral guidelines are built mostly on data from cancer genetics clinics in women of European descent. To evaluate the appropriateness of such guidelines in Asians, we have determined the prevalence of germ line variants in an unselected cohort of Asian patients with breast cancer and healthy controls. METHODS: Germ line DNA from a hospital-based study of 2575 unselected patients with breast cancer and 2809 healthy controls were subjected to amplicon-based targeted sequencing of exonic and proximal splice site junction regions of BRCA1 and BRCA2 using the Fluidigm Access Array system, with sequencing conducted on a Illumina HiSeq2500 platform. Variant calling was performed with GATK UnifiedGenotyper and were validated by Sanger sequencing. RESULTS: Fifty-five (2.1%) BRCA1 and 66 (2.6%) BRCA2 deleterious mutations were identified among patients with breast cancer and five (0.18%) BRCA1 and six (0.21%) BRCA2 mutations among controls. One thousand one hundred and eighty-six (46%) patients and 97 (80%) carriers fulfilled the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for genetic testing. CONCLUSION: Five per cent of unselected Asian patients with breast cancer carry deleterious variants in BRCA1 or BRCA2. While current referral guidelines identified the majority of carriers, one in two patients would be referred for genetic services. Given that such services are largely unavailable in majority of low-resource settings in Asia, our study highlights the need for more efficient guidelines to identify at-risk individuals in Asia.

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci.

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10-8. The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

Identification of ten variants associated with risk of estrogen-receptor-negative breast cancer.

Most common breast cancer susceptibility variants have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of predominantly estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease. We conducted a GWAS using 21,468 ER-negative cases and 100,594 controls combined with 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer), all of European origin. We identified independent associations at P < 5 × 10-8 with ten variants at nine new loci. At P < 0.05, we replicated associations with 10 of 11 variants previously reported in ER-negative disease or BRCA1 mutation carrier GWAS and observed consistent associations with ER-negative disease for 105 susceptibility variants identified by other studies. These 125 variants explain approximately 16% of the familial risk of this breast cancer subtype. There was high genetic correlation (0.72) between risk of ER-negative breast cancer and breast cancer risk for BRCA1 mutation carriers. These findings may lead to improved risk prediction and inform further fine-mapping and functional work to better understand the biological basis of ER-negative breast cancer.

Rare, protein-truncating variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2, but not XRCC2, are associated with increased breast cancer risks.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in women and has a major heritable component. The risks associated with most rare susceptibility variants are not well estimated. To better characterise the contribution of variants in ATM, CHEK2, PALB2 and XRCC2, we sequenced their coding regions in 13 087 BC cases and 5488 controls from East Anglia, UK. METHODS: Gene coding regions were enriched via PCR, sequenced, variant called and filtered for quality. ORs for BC risk were estimated separately for carriers of truncating variants and of rare missense variants, which were further subdivided by functional domain and pathogenicity as predicted by four in silico algorithms. RESULTS: Truncating variants in PALB2 (OR=4.69, 95% CI 2.27 to 9.68), ATM (OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.82 to 6.46) and CHEK2 (OR=3.11; 95% CI 2.15 to 4.69), but not XRCC2 (OR=0.94; 95% CI 0.26 to 4.19) were associated with increased BC risk. Truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2 were more strongly associated with risk of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive than ER-negative disease, while those in PALB2 were associated with similar risks for both subtypes. There was also some evidence that missense variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 may contribute to BC risk, but larger studies are necessary to quantify the magnitude of this effect. CONCLUSIONS: Truncating variants in PALB2 are associated with a higher risk of BC than those in ATM or CHEK2. A substantial risk of BC due to truncating XRCC2 variants can be excluded.

Association of breast cancer risk with genetic variants showing differential allelic expression: Identification of a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus at 4q21.

There are significant inter-individual differences in the levels of gene expression. Through modulation of gene expression, cis-acting variants represent an important source of phenotypic variation. Consequently, cis-regulatory SNPs associated with differential allelic expression are functional candidates for further investigation as disease-causing variants. To investigate whether common variants associated with differential allelic expression were involved in breast cancer susceptibility, a list of genes was established on the basis of their involvement in cancer related pathways and/or mechanisms. Thereafter, using data from a genome-wide map of allelic expression associated SNPs, 313 genetic variants were selected and their association with breast cancer risk was then evaluated in 46,451 breast cancer cases and 42,599 controls of European ancestry ascertained from 41 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The associations were evaluated with overall breast cancer risk and with estrogen receptor negative and positive disease. One novel breast cancer susceptibility locus on 4q21 (rs11099601) was identified (OR = 1.05, P = 5.6x10-6). rs11099601 lies in a 135 kb linkage disequilibrium block containing several genes, including, HELQ, encoding the protein HEL308 a DNA dependant ATPase and DNA Helicase involved in DNA repair, MRPS18C encoding the Mitochondrial Ribosomal Protein S18C and FAM175A (ABRAXAS), encoding a BRCA1 BRCT domain-interacting protein involved in DNA damage response and double-strand break (DSB) repair. Expression QTL analysis in breast cancer tissue showed rs11099601 to be associated with HELQ (P = 8.28x10-14), MRPS18C (P = 1.94x10-27) and FAM175A (P = 3.83x10-3), explaining about 20%, 14% and 1%, respectively of the variance inexpression of these genes in breast carcinomas.

Identification of independent association signals and putative functional variants for breast cancer risk through fine-scale mapping of the 12p11 locus.

BACKGROUND: Multiple recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs10771399, at 12p11 that is associated with breast cancer risk. METHOD: We performed a fine-scale mapping study of a 700 kb region including 441 genotyped and more than 1300 imputed genetic variants in 48,155 cases and 43,612 controls of European descent, 6269 cases and 6624 controls of East Asian descent and 1116 cases and 932 controls of African descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC; http://bcac.ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/ ), and in 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). Stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify independent association signals. Data from the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements project (ENCODE) and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were used for functional annotation. RESULTS: Analysis of data from European descendants found evidence for four independent association signals at 12p11, represented by rs7297051 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.12; P = 3 × 10(-9)), rs805510 (OR = 1.08, 95 % CI = 1.04-1.12, P = 2 × 10(-5)), and rs1871152 (OR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.06; P = 2 × 10(-4)) identified in the general populations, and rs113824616 (P = 7 × 10(-5)) identified in the meta-analysis of BCAC ER-negative cases and BRCA1 mutation carriers. SNPs rs7297051, rs805510 and rs113824616 were also associated with breast cancer risk at P < 0.05 in East Asians, but none of the associations were statistically significant in African descendants. Multiple candidate functional variants are located in putative enhancer sequences. Chromatin interaction data suggested that PTHLH was the likely target gene of these enhancers. Of the six variants with the strongest evidence of potential functionality, rs11049453 was statistically significantly associated with the expression of PTHLH and its nearby gene CCDC91 at P < 0.05. CONCLUSION: This study identified four independent association signals at 12p11 and revealed potentially functional variants, providing additional insights into the underlying biological mechanism(s) for the association observed between variants at 12p11 and breast cancer risk.

No evidence that protein truncating variants in BRIP1 are associated with breast cancer risk: implications for gene panel testing.

BACKGROUND: BRCA1 interacting protein C-terminal helicase 1 (BRIP1) is one of the Fanconi Anaemia Complementation (FANC) group family of DNA repair proteins. Biallelic mutations in BRIP1 are responsible for FANC group J, and previous studies have also suggested that rare protein truncating variants in BRIP1 are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. These studies have led to inclusion of BRIP1 on targeted sequencing panels for breast cancer risk prediction. METHODS: We evaluated a truncating variant, p.Arg798Ter (rs137852986), and 10 missense variants of BRIP1, in 48 144 cases and 43 607 controls of European origin, drawn from 41 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Additionally, we sequenced the coding regions of BRIP1 in 13 213 cases and 5242 controls from the UK, 1313 cases and 1123 controls from three population-based studies as part of the Breast Cancer Family Registry, and 1853 familial cases and 2001 controls from Australia. RESULTS: The rare truncating allele of rs137852986 was observed in 23 cases and 18 controls in Europeans in BCAC (OR 1.09, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.03, p=0.79). Truncating variants were found in the sequencing studies in 34 cases (0.21%) and 19 controls (0.23%) (combined OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.70, p=0.75). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that truncating variants in BRIP1, and in particular p.Arg798Ter, are not associated with a substantial increase in breast cancer risk. Such observations have important implications for the reporting of results from breast cancer screening panels.

PPM1D Mosaic Truncating Variants in Ovarian Cancer Cases May Be Treatment-Related Somatic Mutations.

Mosaic truncating mutations in the protein phosphatase, Mg(2+)/Mn(2+)-dependent, 1D (PPM1D) gene have recently been reported with a statistically significantly greater frequency in lymphocyte DNA from ovarian cancer case patients compared with unaffected control patients. Using massively parallel sequencing (MPS) we identified truncating PPM1D mutations in 12 of 3236 epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) case patients (0.37%) but in only one of 3431 unaffected control patients (0.03%) (P = .001). All statistical tests were two-sided. A combination of Sanger sequencing, pyrosequencing, and MPS data suggested that 12 of the 13 mutations were mosaic. All mutations were identified in post-chemotherapy treatment blood samples from case patients (n = 1827) (average 1234 days post-treatment in carriers) rather than from cases collected pretreatment (less than 14 days after diagnosis, n = 1384) (P = .002). These data suggest that PPM1D variants in EOC cases are primarily somatic mosaic mutations caused by treatment and are not associated with germline predisposition to EOC.

A risk prediction algorithm for ovarian cancer incorporating BRCA1, BRCA2, common alleles and other familial effects.

BACKGROUND: Although BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations account for only ∼27% of the familial aggregation of ovarian cancer (OvC), no OvC risk prediction model currently exists that considers the effects of BRCA1, BRCA2 and other familial factors. Therefore, a currently unresolved problem in clinical genetics is how to counsel women with family history of OvC but no identifiable BRCA1/2 mutations. METHODS: We used data from 1548 patients with OvC and their relatives from a population-based study, with known BRCA1/2 mutation status, to investigate OvC genetic susceptibility models, using segregation analysis methods. RESULTS: The most parsimonious model included the effects of BRCA1/2 mutations, and the residual familial aggregation was accounted for by a polygenic component (SD 1.43, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.86), reflecting the multiplicative effects of a large number of genes with small contributions to the familial risk. We estimated that 1 in 630 individuals carries a BRCA1 mutation and 1 in 195 carries a BRCA2 mutation. We extended this model to incorporate the explicit effects of 17 common alleles that are associated with OvC risk. Based on our models, assuming all of the susceptibility genes could be identified we estimate that the half of the female population at highest genetic risk will account for 92% of all OvCs. CONCLUSIONS: The resulting model can be used to obtain the risk of developing OvC on the basis of BRCA1/2, explicit family history and common alleles. This is the first model that accounts for all OvC familial aggregation and would be useful in the OvC genetic counselling process.