Epidemiology of Escherichia coli bloodstream infection antimicrobial resistance trends across South West England during the first 2 years of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic response.

OBJECTIVES: Between 2016 and 2019, the proportion of Escherichia coli bloodstream infection (BSI) with resistance to at least one antibiotic increased nationally. Public health interventions implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic changed population contact patterns and healthcare systems, with consequent effects on epidemiological trends of numerous pathogens. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on epidemiological trends of E. coli BSI antimicrobial resistance (AMR) across South West England. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective ecological analysis utilizing routine surveillance data of E. coli BSI cases reported to the UK Health Security Agency between 2016 and 2021. We analysed AMR trends for antimicrobial agents including amoxicillin-clavulanate, ciprofloxacin, piperacillin-tazobactam, gentamicin, third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems before and after the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions (23 March 2020) using Bayesian segmented regression. RESULTS: We identified 19 055 cases. A total of 50.2% were male. Median age was 76 (interquartile range, 65-85 years). Piperacillin-tazobactam (-2.90% [95% highest density interval {HDI} -4.51%, -0.48%]) and ciprofloxacin (-2.40% [95% HDI -4.35%, 0.48%]) resistance demonstrated immediate step changes at the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions. Gentamicin (odds ratio [OR] 0.92 [95% HDI 0.76, 1.12]) and third-generation cephalosporins (OR 0.95 [95% HDI 0.80, 1.14]) exhibited decreasing annual resistance trends after the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions, with moderate evidence for a lower OR after restrictions as compared to the period before (gentamicin Bayes Factor = 5.10, third-generation cephalosporins Bayes Factor = 6.67). DISCUSSION: COVID-19 restrictions led to abrupt and longer term changes to E.coli BSI AMR. The immediate effects suggest altered transmission, whereas changes to resistant E. coli reservoirs may explain trend effects.

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in England during the COVID-19 pandemic, measured by laboratory, clinical, and syndromic surveillance: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause a clinically significant burden of disease among young children. Non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted at SARS-CoV-2 have affected the activity of other respiratory pathogens. We describe changes in the epidemiology of RSV among children younger than 5 years in England since 2020. METHODS: Surveillance data on RSV infections, comprising laboratory-confirmed cases, proportion of positive tests, hospital admissions for RSV-attributable illness, and syndromic indicators for RSV-associated disease (emergency department attendances for acute bronchitis or bronchiolitis, non-emergency health advice telephone service [NHS 111] calls for cough, general practitioner [GP] in-hours consultations for respiratory tract infections, and GP out-of-hours contacts for acute bronchitis or bronchiolitis) were analysed from Dec 29, 2014 to March 13, 2022, for children younger than 5 years. Data were extracted from national laboratory, clinical, and syndromic surveillance systems. Time-series analyses using generalised linear models were used to estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 on RSV indicators, with absolute and relative changes calculated by comparing observed and predicted values. FINDINGS: RSV-associated activity was reduced for all RSV indicators during winter 2020-21 in England, with 10 280 (relative change -99·5% [95% prediction interval -100·0 to -99·1]) fewer laboratory-confirmed cases, 22·2 (-99·6%) percentage points lower test positivity, 92 530 (-80·8% [-80·9 to -80·8]) fewer hospital admissions, 96 672 (-73·7% [-73·7 to -73·7]) fewer NHS 111 calls, 2924 (-88·8% [-90·4 to -87·2]) fewer out-of-hours GP contacts, 91 304 (-89·9% [-90·0 to -89·9]) in-hours GP consultations, and 27 486 (-85·3% [-85·4 to -85·2]) fewer emergency department attendances for children younger than 5 years compared with predicted values based on winter seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic. An unprecedented summer surge of RSV activity occurred in 2021, including 11 255 (1258·3% [1178·3 to 1345·8]) extra laboratory-confirmed cases, 11·6 percentage points (527·3%) higher test positivity, 7604 (10·7% [10·7 to 10·8]) additional hospital admissions, 84 425 (124·8% [124·7 to 124·9]) more calls to NHS 111, 409 (39·0% [36·6 to 41·8]) more out-of-hours GP contacts, and 9789 (84·9% [84·5 to 85·4]) more emergency department attendances compared with the predicted values, although there were 21 805 (-34·1% [-34·1 to -34·0]) fewer in-hours GP consultations than expected. Most indicators were also lower than expected in winter 2021-22, although to a lesser extent than in winter 2020-21. INTERPRETATION: The extraordinary absence of RSV during winter 2020-21 probably resulted in a cohort of young children without natural immunity to RSV, thereby raising the potential for increased RSV incidence, out-of-season activity, and health-service pressures when measures to restrict SARS-CoV-2 transmission were relaxed. FUNDING: None.

Prospective Study of the Performance of Parent-Collected Nasal and Saliva Swab Samples, Compared with Nurse-Collected Swab Samples, for the Molecular Detection of Respiratory Microorganisms.

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are ubiquitous among children in the community. A prospective observational study was performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance and quality of at-home parent-collected (PC) nasal and saliva swab samples, compared to nurse-collected (NC) swab samples, from children with RTI symptoms. Children with RTI symptoms were swabbed at home on the same day by a parent and a nurse. We compared the performance of PC swab samples as the test with NC swab samples as the reference for the detection of respiratory pathogen gene targets by reverse transcriptase PCR, with quality assessment using a human gene. PC and NC paired nasal and saliva swab samples were collected from 91 and 92 children, respectively. Performance and interrater agreement (Cohen's κ) of PC versus NC nasal swab samples for viruses combined showed sensitivity of 91.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85.47 to 95.73%) and κ of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.88), respectively; the respective values for bacteria combined were 91.4% (95% CI, 86.85 to 94.87%) and κ of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.89). In saliva samples, viral and bacterial sensitivities were lower at 69.0% (95% CI, 57.47 to 79.76%) and 78.1% (95% CI, 71.60 to 83.76%), as were κ values at 0.64 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.72) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.76), respectively. Quality assessment for human biological material (18S rRNA) indicated perfect interrater agreement. At-home PC nasal swab samples performed comparably to NC swab samples, whereas PC saliva swab samples lacked sensitivity for the detection of respiratory microbes. IMPORTANCE RTIs are ubiquitous among children. Diagnosis involves a swab sample being taken by a health professional, which places a considerable burden on community health care systems, given the number of cases involved. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has seen an increase in the at-home self-collection of upper respiratory tract swab samples without the involvement of health professionals. It is advised that parents conduct or supervise swabbing of children. Surprisingly, few studies have addressed the quality of PC swab samples for subsequent identification of respiratory pathogens. We compared NC and PC nasal and saliva swab samples taken from the same child with RTI symptoms, for detection of respiratory pathogens. The PC nasal swab samples performed comparably to NC samples, whereas saliva swab samples lacked sensitivity for the detection of respiratory microbes. Collection of swab samples by parents would greatly reduce the burden on community nurses without reducing the effectiveness of diagnoses.

The English National Cohort Study of Flooding & Health: psychological morbidity at three years of follow up.

BACKGROUND: Flooding is expected to increase due to climate change, population growth and urban development. The longer-term mental health impacts of flooding are not well understood. In 2015, the English National Study of Flooding and Health was established to improve understanding of the impact of flooding on health and inform future public health action. METHODS: We used 3 years of data from the English National Study of Flooding and Health. Participants who had consented to follow up were sent a questionnaire. Participants were classified into either "unaffected", "disrupted" or "flooded" according to their exposure. Logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in each exposure group. The Wald test was used to assess the difference in probable mental health outcomes for those who did and did not experience "persistent damage" to their home. Conditional logistic regression was conducted to assess change in prevalence over the 3 years and to identify possible determinants of recovery. RESULTS: Eight hundred nineteen individuals were included in the final analysis - 119 were classified as unaffected, 421 disrupted and 279 flooded. Overall, 5.7% had probable depression, 8.1% had probable anxiety and 11.8% had probable PTSD, with higher prevalence in the flooded group compared with the unaffected group. After adjustment for potential confounders, probable mental health outcomes were higher in the flooded group compared to the unaffected group, significantly for probable depression (aOR 8.48, 95% CI 1.04-68.97) and PTSD (aOR 7.74, 95% CI 2.24-26.79). Seventy-seven (9.4%) participants reported experiencing persistent damage to their home, most commonly damp (n = 40) and visible mould (n = 26) in liveable rooms. Of the 569 participants who responded at all 3 years, a significant reduction in prevalence for all probable mental health outcomes was observed in the flooded group. CONCLUSIONS: Flooding can have severe long-lasting consequences on mental health in affected populations. If these problems are not identified and treated early, they may persist for years. Further research is necessary to develop and evaluate interventions to increase resilience in at risk populations and to ensure timely access to support services following flooding.

Impact of repeat flooding on mental health and health-related quality of life: a cross-sectional analysis of the English National Study of Flooding and Health.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between flooding/repeat flooding and: (1) psychological morbidity (anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)) and (2) health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 6 months post-flooding. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of data from the English National Study of Flooding and Health. SETTING: Cumbria, England. PARTICIPANTS: Questionnaires were sent to 2500 residential addresses at 6 months post-flooding; 590 people responded. OUTCOMES: Probable depression was assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire, probable anxiety using the Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale and probable PTSD using the short-form PTSD checklist (PCL-6). HRQoL was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L. Mental health outcomes were analysed using logistic regression; HRQoL dimensions using ordinal regression; and summary index/Visual Analogue Scale scores using linear regression. RESULTS: One hundred and nineteen participants had been flooded, over half of whom were experiencing a repeat flooding event (54%; n=64). Mental health outcomes were elevated among flooded compared with unaffected participants (adjusted OR for probable depression: 7.77, 95% CI: 1.51 to 40.13; anxiety: 4.16, 95% CI: 1.18 to 14.70; PTSD: 14.41, 95% CI: 3.91 to 53.13). The prevalence of depression was higher among repeat compared with single flooded participants, but this was not significant after adjustment. There was no difference in levels of anxiety or PTSD. Compared with unaffected participants, those flooded had lower EQ-5D-5L index scores (adjusted coefficient: -0.06, 95% CI: -0.12 to -0.01) and lower self-rated health scores (adjusted coefficient: -6.99, 95% CI: -11.96 to -2.02). There was, however, little difference in HRQoL overall between repeat and single flooded participants. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions are needed to help minimise the impact of flooding on people's mental health and HRQoL.

Cannabis use and the risk of tuberculosis: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Cannabis has been identified as a possible risk factor in some tuberculosis (TB) outbreaks. As the most widely used (largely) illegal substance in Western countries this may be an important public health concern. We aim to systematically review the evidence on the association between cannabis use and TB (latent infection and active disease) to inform ongoing and future TB prevention and control strategies. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review. We searched Ovid Medline, Embase and PsycInfo, together with the World Health Organization website and Google Scholar, for all years to January 2018. Reference lists and conference abstracts were hand-searched, a forward citation search was conducted on the Web of Science, and experts were contacted. Two authors independently screened studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias using an adapted version of ROBINS-I ("Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions"). Data were narratively synthesised. RESULTS: Of 377 records identified, 11 studies were eligible. Study designs were heterogeneous. Six studies utilised a relevant comparator group. Four of these investigated the association between cannabis use and latent TB infection; all provided some evidence of an association, although only two of these had adjusted for confounders. The remaining two comparator studies investigated the association between cannabis use and active TB disease; neither found evidence of an association after adjusting for confounding. All six studies were at "Serious" risk of bias. The five studies which did not utilise a relevant comparator group were all indicative of TB outbreaks occurring among cannabis users, but the quality of the evidence was very weak. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence for an association between cannabis use and TB acquisition is weak. The topic warrants further robust primary research including the collection of consistent and accurate exposure information, including cannabis use practices, dose and frequency, and adjustment for confounders.

Effect of Insurance-Related Factors on the Association between Flooding and Mental Health Outcomes.

Floods are a significant public health problem linked with increased psychological morbidity. We aimed to investigate the effect of insurance-related factors on the association between flooding and probable mental health outcomes. We performed a secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the English National Study of Flooding and Health (NSFH) collected two years after an initial flooding event in 2013-14. Our analysis focused on 851 respondents who experienced flooding or disruption. Multivariable logistic regression models were run for each exposure group. Among those whose homes had been flooded, not having household insurance was associated with increased odds of all outcomes compared to those with household insurance, significantly so for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (aOR 4.31, 95% CI 1.31-14.20). Those who reported severe stress due to insurance issues had increased odds of probable depression (aOR 11.08, 95% CI 1.11-110.30), anxiety (aOR 4.48, 95% CI 1.02-19.70) and PTSD (aOR 7.95, 95% CI 2.10-30.1) compared to those reporting no/mild stress. The study suggests there is increased psychological morbidity amongst the uninsured and those who report feeling severe stress as a result of insurance issues associated with flooding. Services should be prepared to support communities through insurance processes, to reduce probable mental health morbidity following a flood event.

Social network analysis and whole genome sequencing in a cohort study to investigate TB transmission in an educational setting.

BACKGROUND: TB outbreaks in educational institutions can result in significant transmission and pose a considerable threat to TB control. Investigation using traditional microbiological and epidemiological tools can lead to imprecise screening strategies due to difficulties characterising complex transmission networks. Application of whole genome sequencing (WGS) and social network analysis can provide additional information that may facilitate rapid directed public health action. We report the utility of these methods in combination with traditional approaches for the first time to investigate a TB outbreak in an educational setting. METHODS: Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) cases were screenees with a positive T-SPOT®.TB test. Active TB cases were defined through laboratory confirmation of M. tuberculosis on culture or through clinical or radiological findings consistent with infection. Epidemiological data were collected from institutional records and screenees. Samples were cultured and analysed using traditional M. tuberculosis typing and WGS. We undertook multivariable multinomial regression and social network analysis to identify exposures associated with case status and risk communities. RESULTS: We identified 189 LTBI cases (13.7% positivity rate) and nine active TB cases from 1377 persons screened. The LTBI positivity rate was 39.1% (99/253) among persons who shared a course with an infectious case (odds ratio 7.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2 to 10.3). The community structure analysis divided the students into five communities based on connectivity, as opposed to the 11 shared courses. Social network analysis identified that the community including the suspected index case was at significantly elevated risk of active disease (odds ratio 7.5, 95% CI 1.3 to 44.0) and contained eight persons who were lost to follow-up. Five sputum samples underwent WGS, four had zero single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences and one had a single SNP difference. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the public health impact an undiagnosed case of active TB disease can have in an educational setting within a low incidence area. Social network analysis and whole genome sequencing provided greater insight to evolution of the transmission network and identification of communities of risk. These tools provide further information over traditional epidemiological and microbiological approaches to direct public health action in this setting.

Population-based paediatric respiratory infection surveillance: a prospective inception feasibility cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to reduce unnecessary general practitioner (GP) consultations and improve antibiotic stewardship in primary care. Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in children are the most common reason for consulting and prescribing. Most RTI research is conducted at the point of consultation, leaving a knowledge gap regarding the population burden of RTIs. METHODS: Community-based, online prospective inception cohort study with nested qualitative study, to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of collecting RTI symptom and microbiological data from children recruited prior to RTI onset. RESULTS: Parents of 10,310 children were invited. Three hundred thirty-one parents of 485 (4.7%) children responded and completed baseline data. Respondents were less socioeconomically deprived (p < 0.001) with younger (median ages 4 vs. 6 years, p < 0.001) children than non-respondents. The same parents reported 346 RTI episodes in 259 children, and 305 RTIs (in 225 children) were retained to parent-reported symptom resolution. Restricting analyses to the first RTI episode per family (to account for clustering effects), parents fully completed symptom diaries for 180 (87%) of 192 first illness episodes. Research nurses conducted home visits for 199 RTI episodes, collecting complete (symptomatic) swab sets in 195 (98%). Parents collected 194 (98% of 199 possible) symptomatic (during the nurse visit) and 282 (92% of 305 possible) asymptomatic swab sets (on symptom resolution, no nurse present). Interviews with 30 mothers and 11 children indicated study acceptability. CONCLUSIONS: Invitation response rates were in the expected range. The high retention and qualitative evidence suggest that community-based paediatric syndromic and microbiological surveillance research is feasible.

Two cases of monkeypox imported to the United Kingdom, September 2018.

In early September 2018, two cases of monkeypox were reported in the United Kingdom (UK), diagnosed on 7 September in Cornwall (South West England) and 11 September in Blackpool (North West England). The cases were epidemiologically unconnected and had recently travelled to the UK from Nigeria, where monkeypox is currently circulating. We describe the epidemiology and the public health response for the first diagnosed cases outside the African continent since 2003.

The English National Cohort Study of Flooding and Health: the change in the prevalence of psychological morbidity at year two.

BACKGROUND: The longer term impact of flooding on health is poorly understood. In 2015, following widespread flooding in the UK during winter 2013/14, Public Health England launched the English National Study of Flooding and Health. The study identified a higher prevalence of probable psychological morbidity one year after exposure to flooding. We now report findings after two years. METHODS: In year two (2016), a self-assessment questionnaire including flooding-related exposures and validated instruments to screen for probable anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was sent to all participants who consented to further follow-up. Participants exposure status was categorised according to responses in year one; we assessed for exposure to new episodes of flooding and continuing flood-related problems in respondents homes. We calculated the prevalence and odds ratio for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. We used the McNemar test to assess change in outcomes between year one and year two. RESULTS: In year two, 1064 (70%) people responded. The prevalence of probable psychological morbidity remained elevated amongst flooded participants [n = 339] (depression 10.6%, anxiety 13.6%, PTSD 24.5%) and disrupted participants [n = 512] (depression 4.1%, anxiety 6.4%, PTSD 8.9%), although these rates were reduced compared to year one. A greater reduction in anxiety 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6-9.9) was seen than depression 3.8% (95% CI 1.5-6.1) and PTSD: 6.6% (95% CI 3.9-9.2). Exposure to flooding was associated with a higher odds of anxiety (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.2 95%, 95% CI 1.7-16.3) and depression (aOR 8.7, 95% CI 1.9-39.8) but not PTSD. Exposure to disruption caused by flooding was not significantly associated with probable psychological morbidity. Persistent damage in the home as a consequence of the original flooding event was reported by 119 participants (14%). The odds of probable psychological morbidity amongst flooded participants who reported persistent damage, compared with those who were unaffected, were significantly higher than the same comparison amongst flooded participants who did not report persistent damage. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a continuance of probable psychological morbidity at least two years following exposure to flooding. Commissioners and providers of health and social care services should be aware that the increased need in populations may be prolonged. Efforts to resolve persistent damage to homes may reduce the risk of probable psychological morbidity.

Outbreak of group A Streptococcus emm94.0 affecting people who inject drugs in southwest England, April 2017.

We report an outbreak of invasive and noninvasive group A Streptococcus during April 2017 among people who inject drugs in southwest England. To date we have identified 14 cases linked to a specific town, all confirmed as group A Streptococcus emm94.0, a strain type not previously reported in the area. We have yet to identify a source for this ongoing outbreak. Actions described here may help reduce the burden of infection in vulnerable populations.

Secondary stressors are associated with probable psychological morbidity after flooding: a cross-sectional analysis.

Background: The impact of flooding on mental health is exacerbated due to secondary stressors, although the mechanism of action is not understood. We investigated the role of secondary stressors on psychological outcomes through analysis of data collected one-year after flooding, and effect modification by sex. Methods: We analysed data from the English National Study on Flooding and Health collected from households flooded, disrupted and unexposed to flooding during 2013-14. Psychological outcomes were probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to determine the effect of secondary stressors on the psychological outcomes. Sex was tested as an effect modifier using subgroup analyses. Results: A total of 2006 people participated (55.5% women, mean age 60 years old). Participants reporting concerns about their personal health and that of their family (concerns about health) had greater odds of probable depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.17-2.65) and PTSD (aOR 2.58, 95% CI 1.82-3.66). Loss of items of sentimental value was associated with probable anxiety (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.26-2.62). For women, the strongest associations were between concerns about health and probable PTSD (aOR 2.86, 95% CI 1.79-4.57). For men, the strongest associations were between 'relationship problems' and probable depression (aOR 3.25, 95% CI 1.54-6.85). Conclusions: Concerns about health, problems with relationships and loss of sentimental items were consistently associated with poor psychological outcomes. Interventions to reduce the occurrence of these secondary stressors are needed to mitigate the impact of flooding on probable psychological morbidity.

Effectiveness of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccines: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The clinical effectiveness of monovalent influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines has not been comprehensively summarised. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) for adjuvanted and unadjuvanted vaccines. METHODS: We searched healthcare databases and grey literature from 11 June 2009 to 12 November 2014. Two researchers independently assessed titles and abstracts to identify studies for full review. Random effects meta-analyses estimated the pooled effect size of vaccination compared to placebo or no vaccination for crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) to prevent laboratory confirmed influenza illness (LCI) and related hospitalization. VE was calculated as (1-pooled OR)∗100. Narrative synthesis was undertaken where meta-analysis was not possible. RESULTS: We identified 9229 studies of which 38 at moderate risk of bias met protocol eligibility criteria; 23 were suitable for meta-analysis. Pooled adjusted VE against LCI with adjuvanted and unadjuvanted vaccines both reached statistical significance (adjuvanted: VE=80%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 59-90%; unadjuvanted: VE=66%; 95% CI 47-78%); in planned secondary analyses, VE in adults often failed to reach statistical significance and pooled point estimates were lower than observed in children. Overall pooled adjusted VE against hospitalization was 61% (95% CI 14-82%); in planned secondary analyses, adjusted VE attained statistical significance in adults aged 18-64years and children for adjuvanted vaccines. Adjuvanted vaccines were significantly more effective in children compared to adults for both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvanted and unadjuvanted monovalent influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines were both effective in preventing LCI. Overall, the vaccines were also effective against influenza-related hospitalization. For both outcomes adjuvanted vaccines were more effective in children than in adults.

Ongoing outbreak of invasive and non-invasive disease due to group A Streptococcus (GAS) type emm66 among homeless and people who inject drugs in England and Wales, January to December 2016.

We report an outbreak of invasive and non-invasive disease due to an unusual type of Streptococcus pyogenes (group A Streptococcus, emm66) among a vulnerable, largely homeless population in southern England and Wales, detected in September 2016. Twenty-seven confirmed cases were subsequently identified between 5 January and 29 December 2016; 20 injected drugs and six reported problematic alcohol use. To date, we have ruled out drug-related vehicles of infection and identified few common risk factors.

The English national cohort study of flooding and health: cross-sectional analysis of mental health outcomes at year one.

BACKGROUND: In winter 2013/14 there was widespread flooding in England. Previous studies have described an increased prevalence of psychological morbidity six months after flooding. Disruption to essential services may increase morbidity however there have been no studies examining whether those experiencing disruption but not directly flooded are affected. The National Study of Flooding and Health was established in order to investigate the longer-term impact of flooding and related disruptions on mental health and wellbeing. METHODS: In year one we conducted a cross sectional analysis of people living in neighbourhoods affected by flooding between 1 December 2013 and 31 March 2014. 8761 households were invited to participate. Participants were categorised according to exposure as flooded, disrupted by flooding or unaffected. We used validated instruments to screen for probable psychological morbidity, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ 2), Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2) and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) checklist (PCL-6). We calculated prevalence and odds ratios for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: 2126 people (23%) responded. The prevalence of psychological morbidity was elevated amongst flooded participants ([n = 622] depression 20.1%, anxiety 28.3%, PTSD 36.2%) and disrupted participants ([n = 1099] depression 9.6%, anxiety 10.7% PTSD 15.2%). Flooding was associated with higher odds of all outcomes (adjusted odds ratios (aORs), 95% CIs for depression 5.91 (3.91-10.99), anxiety 6.50 (3.77-11.24), PTSD 7.19 (4.33-11.93)). Flooded participants who reported domestic utilities disruption had higher odds of all outcomes than other flooded participants, (aORs, depression 6.19 (3.30-11.59), anxiety 6.64 (3.84-11.48), PTSD 7.27 (4.39-12.03) aORs without such disruption, depression, 3.14 (1.17-8.39), anxiety 3.45 (1.45-8.22), PTSD 2.90 (1.25-6.73)). Increased floodwater depth was significantly associated with higher odds of each outcome. Disruption without flooding was associated with borderline higher odds of anxiety (aOR 1.61 (0.94-2.77)) and higher odds of PTSD 2.06 (1.27-3.35)) compared with unaffected participants. Disruption to health/social care and work/education was also associated with higher odds of psychological morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an insight into the impact of flooding on mental health, suggesting that the impacts of flooding are large, prolonged and extend beyond just those whose homes are flooded.

An International Comparison of the Instigation and Design of Health Registers in the Epidemiological Response to Major Environmental Health Incidents.

CONTEXT: Epidemiological preparedness is vital in providing relevant, transparent, and timely intelligence for the management, mitigation, and prevention of public health impacts following major environmental health incidents. A register is a set of records containing systematically collected, standardized data about individual people. Planning for a register of people affected by or exposed to an incident is one of the evolving tools in the public health preparedness and response arsenal. OBJECTIVE: We compared and contrasted the instigation and design of health registers in the epidemiological response to major environmental health incidents in England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States. DESIGN: Consultation with experts from the 5 nations, supplemented with a review of gray and peer-reviewed scientific literature to identify examples where registers have been used. SETTING: Populations affected by or at risk from major environmental health incidents in England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States. METHODS: Nations were compared with respect to the (1) types of major incidents in their remit for considering a register; (2) arrangements for triggering a register; (3) approaches to design of register; (4) arrangements for register implementation; (5) uses of registers; and (6) examples of follow-up studies. RESULTS: Health registers have played a key role in the effective public health response to major environmental incidents, including sudden chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear, as well as natural, more prolonged incidents. Value has been demonstrated in the early and rapid deployment of health registers, enabling the capture of a representative population. CONCLUSION: The decision to establish a health register must ideally be confirmed immediately or soon after the incident using a set of agreed criteria. The establishment of protocols for the instigation, design, and implementation of health registers is recommended as part of preparedness activities. Key stakeholders must be aware of the importance of, and protocols for, establishing a register.Agencies will find value in preparing and implementing registers as part of an effective public health response to major environmental incidents, including sudden chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear incidents, as well as natural, more prolonged incidents.

Risk of nosocomial respiratory syncytial virus infection and effectiveness of control measures to prevent transmission events: a systematic review.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a significant public health burden, and outbreaks among vulnerable patients in hospital settings are of particular concern. We reviewed published and unpublished literature from hospital settings to assess: (i) nosocomial RSV transmission risk (attack rate) during outbreaks, (ii) effectiveness of infection control measures. We searched the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, together with key websites, journals and grey literature, to end of 2012. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool or Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A narrative synthesis was conducted. Forty studies were included (19 addressing research question one, 21 addressing question two). RSV transmission risk varied by hospital setting; 6-56% (median: 28·5%) in neonatal/paediatric settings (n = 14), 6-12% (median: 7%) in adult haematology and transplant units (n = 3), and 30-32% in other adult settings (n = 2). For question two, most studies (n = 13) employed multi-component interventions (e.g. cohort nursing, personal protective equipment (PPE), isolation), and these were largely reported to be effective in reducing nosocomial transmission. Four studies examined staff PPE; eye protection appeared more effective than gowns and masks. One study reported on RSV prophylaxis for patients (RSV-Ig/palivizumab); there was no statistical evidence of effectiveness although the sample size was small. Overall, risk of bias for included studies tended to be high. We conclude that RSV transmission risk varies widely during hospital outbreaks. Although multi-component control strategies appear broadly successful, further research is required to disaggregate the effectiveness of individual components including the potential role of palivizumab prophylaxis.

The roles of transportation and transportation hubs in the propagation of influenza and coronaviruses: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses spread in humans across wide geographical areas in short periods of time, resulting in high levels of morbidity and mortality. We undertook a systematic review to assess the evidence that air, ground and sea mass transportation systems or hubs are associated with propagating influenza and coronaviruses. METHODS: Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched using pre-defined criteria between April and June 2014. Two reviewers screened all identified records against the protocol, undertook risk of bias assessments and extracted data using a piloted form. Results were analysed using a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Forty-one studies met the eligibility criteria. Risk of bias was high in the observational studies, moderate to high in the reviews and moderate to low in the modelling studies. In-flight influenza transmission was identified substantively on five flights with up to four confirmed and six suspected secondary cases per affected flight. Five studies highlighted the role of air travel in accelerating influenza spread to new areas. Influenza outbreaks aboard cruise ships affect 2-7% of passengers. Influenza transmission events have been observed aboard ground transport vehicles. High heterogeneity between studies and the inability to exclude other sources of infection means that the risk of influenza transmission from an index case to other passengers cannot be accurately quantified. A paucity of evidence was identified describing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission events associated with transportation systems or hubs. CONCLUSION: Air transportation appears important in accelerating and amplifying influenza propagation. Transmission occurs aboard aeroplanes, at the destination and possibly at airports. Control measures to prevent influenza transmission on cruise ships are needed to reduce morbidity and mortality. There is no recent evidence of sea transport accelerating influenza or coronavirus spread to new areas. Further investigation is required regarding the roles of ground transportation systems and transport hubs in pandemic situations.