Coordinated support for local action: Modeling strategies to facilitate behavior adoption in urban-poor communities of Liberia for sustained COVID-19 suppression.

BACKGROUND: Long-term suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission will involve strategies that recognize the heterogeneous capacity of communities to undertake public health recommendations. We highlight the epidemiological impact of barriers to adoption and the potential role of community-led coordination of support for cases and high-risk contacts in urban slums. METHODS: A compartmental model representing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in urban poor versus less socioeconomically vulnerable subpopulations was developed for Montserrado County, Liberia. Adoption of home-isolation behavior was assumed to be related to the proportion of each subpopulation residing in housing units with multiple rooms and with access to sanitation, water, and food. We evaluated the potential impact of increasing the maximum attainable proportion of adoption among urban poor following the scheduled lifting of the state of emergency. RESULTS: Without intervention, the model estimated higher overall infection burden but fewer severe cases among urban poor versus the less socioeconomically vulnerable population. With self-isolation by mildly symptomatic individuals, median reductions in cumulative infections, severe cases, and maximum daily incidence were 7.6% (IQR: 2.2%-20.9%), 7.0% (2.0%-18.5%), and 9.9% (2.5%-31.4%), respectively, in the urban poor subpopulation and 16.8% (5.5%-29.3%), 15.0% (5.0%-26.4%), and 28.1% (9.3%-47.8%) in the less socioeconomically vulnerable population. An increase in the maximum attainable percentage of behavior adoption by the urban slum subpopulation was associated with median reductions of 19.2% (10.1%-34.0%), 21.1% (13.3%-34.2%), and 26.0% (11.5%-48.9%) relative to the status quo scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Post-lockdown recommendations that prioritize home-isolation by confirmed cases are limited by resource constraints. Investing in community-based initiatives that coordinate support for self-identified cases and their contacts could more effectively suppress COVID-19 in settings with socioeconomic vulnerabilities.

A review and agenda for integrated disease models including social and behavioural factors.

Social and behavioural factors are critical to the emergence, spread and containment of human disease, and are key determinants of the course, duration and outcomes of disease outbreaks. Recent epidemics of Ebola in West Africa and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) globally have reinforced the importance of developing infectious disease models that better integrate social and behavioural dynamics and theories. Meanwhile, the growth in capacity, coordination and prioritization of social science research and of risk communication and community engagement (RCCE) practice within the current pandemic response provides an opportunity for collaboration among epidemiological modellers, social scientists and RCCE practitioners towards a mutually beneficial research and practice agenda. Here, we provide a review of the current modelling methodologies and describe the challenges and opportunities for integrating them with social science research and RCCE practice. Finally, we set out an agenda for advancing transdisciplinary collaboration for integrated disease modelling and for more robust policy and practice for reducing disease transmission.

Seeding COVID-19 across Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Reported Importation Events across 49 Countries.

The first case of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was reported by Nigeria on February 27, 2020. Whereas case counts in the entire region remain considerably less than those being reported by individual countries in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, variation in preparedness and response capacity as well as in data availability has raised concerns about undetected transmission events in the SSA region. To capture epidemiological details related to early transmission events into and within countries, a line list was developed from publicly available data on institutional websites, situation reports, press releases, and social media accounts. The availability of indicators-gender, age, travel history, date of arrival in country, reporting date of confirmation, and how detected-for each imported case was assessed. We evaluated the relationship between the time to first reported importation and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) overall score; 13,201 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported by 48 countries in SSA during the 54 days following the first known introduction to the region. Of the 2,516 cases for which travel history information was publicly available, 1,129 (44.9%) were considered importation events. Imported cases tended to be male (65.0%), with a median age of 41.0 years (range: 6 weeks-88 years; IQR: 31-54 years). A country's time to report its first importation was not related to the GHSI overall score, after controlling for air traffic. Countries in SSA generally reported with less publicly available detail over time and tended to have greater information on imported than local cases.

Behaviour adoption approaches during public health emergencies: implications for the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

Human behaviour will continue to play an important role as the world grapples with public health threats. In this paper, we draw from the emerging evidence on behaviour adoption during diverse public health emergencies to develop a framework that contextualises behaviour adoption vis-à-vis a combination of top-down, intermediary and bottom-up approaches. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, we operationalise the contextual framework to demonstrate how these three approaches differ in terms of their implementation, underlying drivers of action, enforcement, reach and uptake. We illustrate how blended strategies that include all three approaches can help accelerate and sustain protective behaviours that will remain important even when safe and effective vaccines become more widely available. As the world grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic and prepares to respond to (re)emerging public health threats, our contextual framework can inform the design, implementation, tracking and evaluation of comprehensive public health and social measures during health emergencies.

Integrated digital system for community engagement and community-based surveillance during the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone: lessons for future health emergencies.

Community engagement and community-based surveillance are essential components of responding to infectious disease outbreaks, but real-time data reporting remains a challenge. In the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, the Social Mobilisation Action Consortium was formed to scale-up structured, data-driven community engagement. The consortium became operational across all 14 districts and supported an expansive network of 2500 community mobilisers, 6000 faith leaders and 42 partner radio stations. The benefit of a more agile digital reporting system became apparent within few months of implementing paper-based reporting given the need to rapidly use the data to inform the fast-evolving epidemic. In this paper, we aim to document the design, deployment and implementation of a digital reporting system used in six high transmission districts. We highlight lessons learnt from our experience in scaling up the digital reporting system during an unprecedented public health crisis. The lessons learnt from our experience in Sierra Leone have important implications for designing and implementing similar digital reporting systems for community engagement and community-based surveillance during public health emergencies.

Community engagement in outbreak response: lessons from the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone.

Documentation of structured community engagement initiatives and real-time monitoring of community engagement activities during large-scale epidemics is limited. To inform such initiatives, this paper analyses the Community Led Ebola Action (CLEA) approach implemented through the Social Mobilization Action Consortium (SMAC) during the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The SMAC initiative consisted of a network of 2466 community mobilisers, >6000 religious leaders and 42 local radio stations across all 14 districts of Sierra Leone. Community mobilisers were active in nearly 70% of all communities across the country using the CLEA approach to facilitate community analysis, trigger collective action planning and maintain community action plans over time. CLEA was complemented by interactive radio programming and intensified religious leader engagement.Community mobilisers trained in the CLEA approach used participatory methods, comprised of an initial community 'triggering' event, action plan development and weekly follow-ups to monitor progress on identified action items. Mobilisers collected operational and behavioural data on a weekly basis as part of CLEA. We conducted a retrospective analysis of >50 000 weekly reports from approximately 12 000 communities from December 2014 to September 2015. The data showed that 100% of the communities that were engaged had one or more action plans in place. Out of the 63 110 cumulative action points monitored by community mobilisers, 92% were marked as 'in-progress' (85%) or 'achieved' (7%) within 9 months. A qualitative examination of action points revealed that the in-progress status was indicative of the long-term sustainability of most action points (eg, continuous monitoring of visitors into the community) versus one-off action items that were marked as achieved (eg, initial installation of handwashing station). Analysis of behavioural outcomes of the intervention indicate an increase over time in the fraction of reported safe burials and fraction of reported cases referred for medical care within 24 hours of symptom onset in the communities that were engaged.Through CLEA, we have demonstrated how large-scale, coordinated community engagement interventions can be achieved and monitored in real-time during future Ebola epidemics and other similar epidemics. The SMAC initiative provides a practical model for the design, implementation and monitoring of community engagement, integration and coordination of community engagement interventions with other health emergency response pillars, and adaptive strategies for large-scale community-based operational data collection.

Unmet needs and behaviour during the Ebola response in Sierra Leone: a retrospective, mixed-methods analysis of community feedback from the Social Mobilization Action Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The west African Ebola epidemic (2014-15) necessitated behaviour change in settings with prevalent and pre-existing unmet needs as well as extensive mechanisms for local community action. We aimed to assess spatial and temporal trends in community-reported needs and associations with behaviour change, community engagement, and the overall outbreak situation in Sierra Leone. METHODS: We did a retrospective, mixed-methods study. Post-hoc analyses of data from 12 096 mobiliser visits as part of the Social Mobilization Action Consortium were used to describe the evolution of satisfied and unsatisfied needs (basic, security, autonomy, respect, and social support) between Nov 12, 2014, and Dec 18, 2015, and across 14 districts. Via Bayesian hierarchical regression modelling, we investigated associations between needs categories and behaviours (numbers of individuals referred to treatment within 24 h of symptom onset or deaths responded to with safe and dignified burials) and the role of community engagement programme status (initial vs follow-up visit) in the association between satisfied versus unsatisfied needs and behaviours. FINDINGS: In general, significant associations were observed between unsatisfied needs categories and both prompt referrals to treatment and safe burials. Most notably, communities expressing unsatisfied capacity needs reported fewer safe burials (relative risk [RR] 0·86, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0·82-0·91) and fewer prompt referrals to treatment (RR 0·76, 0·70-0·83) than did those without unsatisfied capacity needs. The exception was expression of unsatisfied basic needs, which was associated with significantly fewer prompt referrals only (RR 0·86, 95% CrI 0·79-0·93). Compared with triggering visits by community mobilisers, follow-up visits were associated with higher numbers of prompt referrals (RR 1·40, 95% CrI 1·30-1·50) and safe burials (RR 1·08, 1·02-1·14). INTERPRETATION: Community-based development of locally feasible, locally owned action plans, with the support of community mobilisers, has potential to address unmet needs for more sustained behaviour change in outbreak settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.

The Development of Standard Operating Procedures for Social Mobilization and Community Engagement in Sierra Leone During the West Africa Ebola Outbreak of 2014-2015.

This article describes the development of standard operating procedures (SOPs) for social mobilization and community engagement (SM/CE) in Sierra Leone during the Ebola outbreak of 2014-2015. It aims to (a) explain the rationale for a standardized approach, (b) describe the methodology used to develop the resulting SOPs, and (c) discuss the implications of the SOPs for future outbreak responses. Mixed methodologies were applied, including analysis of data on Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices; consultation through a national forum; and a series of workshops with more than 250 participants active in SM/CE in seven districts with recent confirmed cases. Specific challenges, best practices, and operational models were identified in relation to (a) the quality of SM/CE approaches; (b) coordination and operational structures; and (c) integration with Ebola services, including case management, burials, quarantine, and surveillance. This information was synthesized and codified into the SOPs, which include principles, roles, and actions for partners engaging in SM/CE as part of the Ebola response. This experience points to the need for a set of global principles and standards for meaningful SM/CE that can be rapidly adapted as a high-priority response component at the outset of future health and humanitarian crises.