Overview of the Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) Field Experiment.

The Alaskan Layered Pollution And Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) field experiment was a collaborative study designed to improve understanding of pollution sources and chemical processes during winter (cold climate and low-photochemical activity), to investigate indoor pollution, and to study dispersion of pollution as affected by frequent temperature inversions. A number of the research goals were motivated by questions raised by residents of Fairbanks, Alaska, where the study was held. This paper describes the measurement strategies and the conditions encountered during the January and February 2022 field experiment, and reports early examples of how the measurements addressed research goals, particularly those of interest to the residents. Outdoor air measurements showed high concentrations of particulate matter and pollutant gases including volatile organic carbon species. During pollution events, low winds and extremely stable atmospheric conditions trapped pollution below 73 m, an extremely shallow vertical scale. Tethered-balloon-based measurements intercepted plumes aloft, which were associated with power plant point sources through transport modeling. Because cold climate residents spend much of their time indoors, the study included an indoor air quality component, where measurements were made inside and outside a house to study infiltration and indoor sources. In the absence of indoor activities such as cooking and/or heating with a pellet stove, indoor particulate matter concentrations were lower than outdoors; however, cooking and pellet stove burns often caused higher indoor particulate matter concentrations than outdoors. The mass-normalized particulate matter oxidative potential, a health-relevant property measured here by the reactivity with dithiothreiol, of indoor particles varied by source, with cooking particles having less oxidative potential per mass than pellet stove particles.

Geological evidence of extensive N-fixation by volcanic lightning during very large explosive eruptions.

Most of the nitrogen (N) accessible for life is trapped in dinitrogen (N2), the most stable atmospheric molecule. In order to be metabolized by living organisms, N2 has to be converted into biologically assimilable forms, so-called fixed N. Nowadays, nearly all the N-fixation is achieved through biological and anthropogenic processes. However, in early prebiotic environments of the Earth, N-fixation must have occurred via natural abiotic processes. One of the most invoked processes is electrical discharges, including from thunderstorms and lightning associated with volcanic eruptions. Despite the frequent occurrence of volcanic lightning during explosive eruptions and convincing laboratory experimentation, no evidence of substantial N-fixation has been found in any geological archive. Here, we report on the discovery of a significant amount of nitrate in volcanic deposits from Neogene caldera-forming eruptions, which are well correlated with the concentrations of species directly emitted by volcanoes (sulfur, chlorine). The multi-isotopic composition (δ18O, Δ17O) of the nitrates reveals that they originate from the atmospheric oxidation of nitrogen oxides formed by volcanic lightning. According to these first geological volcanic nitrate archive, we estimate that, on average, about 60 Tg of N can be fixed during a large explosive event. Our findings hint at a unique role potentially played by subaerial explosive eruptions in supplying essential ingredients for the emergence of life on Earth.

Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation.

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

Ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative.

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift.

The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

No Robust Evidence of Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings: A Multi-model Assessment from CCMI.

Major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Due to their relevance for the troposphere-stratosphere system, several previous studies have focused on their potential response to anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to a decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs, and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. Here we revisit the question of future SSWs changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative. From analyzing future integrations we find no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of SSWs. Changes in other SSWs characteristics, such as their duration and the tropospheric forcing, are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.

Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.

As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.

Stratospheric Ozone destruction by the Bronze-Age Minoan eruption (Santorini Volcano, Greece).

The role of volcanogenic halogen-bearing (i.e. chlorine and bromine) compounds in stratospheric ozone chemistry and climate forcing is poorly constrained. While the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo resulted in stratospheric ozone loss, it was due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic sulfate aerosols involving chlorine of anthropogenic rather than volcanogenic origin, since co-erupted chlorine was scavenged within the plume. Therefore, it is not known what effect volcanism had on ozone in pre-industrial times, nor what will be its role on future atmospheres with reduced anthropogenic halogens present. By combining petrologic constraints on eruption volatile yields with a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we show here that the Bronze-Age 'Minoan' eruption of Santorini Volcano released far more halogens than sulfur and that, even if only 2% of these halogens reached the stratosphere, it would have resulted in strong global ozone depletion. The model predicts reductions in ozone columns of 20 to >90% at Northern high latitudes and an ozone recovery taking up to a decade. Our findings emphasise the significance of volcanic halogens for stratosphere chemistry and suggest that modelling of past and future volcanic impacts on Earth's ozone, climate and ecosystems should systematically consider volcanic halogen emissions in addition to sulfur emissions.

Projected changes in clear-sky erythemal and vitamin D effective UV doses for Europe over the period 2006 to 2100.

The benefits and the harmful effects of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure have been well discussed. Most studies show concern for the solar overexposure in the tropics and low latitude sites and its scarcity at higher latitudes. Both cases are of concern, the first for diseases such as skin cancer and the second for the lack of vitamin D production in the skin. In this study, we evaluate the influence of climate change scenarios on the total ozone content (TOC) and typical aerosol properties, such as the optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA), over Europe. From these parameters, we estimate the erythemal and the vitamin D effective UVR doses from 2006 to 2100. Our results indicate a small reduction of the UVR daily doses caused by the ozone layer recovery and partially compensated by an AOD diminution through this century. The attenuation will be larger at high latitudes, during the springtime and for more polluted scenarios during this century. However, this diminution should not be sufficient to provide a protection condition for erythema. On the other hand, at higher latitudes, it possibly contributes to a relevant increase in the exposure time necessary for the synthesis of vitamin D, mainly during autumn and spring seasons.

Tracing the origin and fate of NOx in the Arctic atmosphere using stable isotopes in nitrate.

Atmospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx =NO+ NO2) play a pivotal role in the cycling of reactive nitrogen (ultimately deposited as nitrate) and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Combined measurements of nitrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios of nitrate collected in the Arctic atmosphere were used to infer the origin and fate of NOx and nitrate on a seasonal basis. In spring, photochemically driven emissions of reactive nitrogen from the snowpack into the atmosphere make local oxidation of NOx by bromine oxide the major contributor to the nitrate budget. The comprehensive isotopic composition of nitrate provides strong constraints on the relative importance of the key atmospheric oxidants in the present atmosphere, with the potential for extension into the past using ice cores.