Estimating and Presenting Hazard Ratios and Absolute Risks from a Cox Model with Complex Non-linear Interactions.

Interaction analysis is a critical component of clinical and public health research and represents a key topic in precision health and medicine. In applied settings, however, interaction assessment is usually limited to the test of a product term in a regression model, and to the presentation of stratified results over levels of additional covariates. Results stratification often relies on categorizing or making linearity assumptions for continuous covariates, with substantial loss of precision and of relevant information. In time-to-event analysis, moreover, interaction assessment is often limited to the multiplicative hazard scale by inclusion of a product terms in a Cox regression model, disregarding the clinically relevant information that are captured by the absolute risk scale. In this paper we present a user-friendly procedure, based on the prediction of individual absolute risks from the Cox model, for the estimation and presentation of interactive effects on both the multiplicative and additive scale in survival analysis. We describe how to flexibly incorporate interactions with continuous covariates, which potentially operate in a non-linear fashion, we provide software material to replicate our procedure, and discuss different approaches to derive confidence intervals. The presented approach will allow clinical and public health researchers assessing complex relationships between multiple covariates as they relate to a clinical endpoint, and providing a more intuitive and precise depiction of the results in applied research papers focusing on interaction and effect stratification.

Cohort profile: the Environmental Reproductive and Glucose Outcomes (ERGO) Study (Boston, Massachusetts, USA) - a prospective pregnancy cohort study of the impacts of environmental exposures on parental cardiometabolic health.

PURPOSE: Pregnancy and the postpartum period are increasingly recognised as sensitive windows for cardiometabolic disease risk. Growing evidence suggests environmental exposures, including endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), are associated with an increased risk of pregnancy complications that are associated with long-term cardiometabolic risk. However, the impact of perinatal EDC exposure on subsequent cardiometabolic risk post-pregnancy is less understood. The Environmental Reproductive and Glucose Outcomes (ERGO) Study was established to investigate the associations of environmental exposures during the perinatal period with post-pregnancy parental cardiometabolic health. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant individuals aged ≥18 years without pre-existing diabetes were recruited at <15 weeks of gestation from Boston, Massachusetts area hospitals. Participants completed ≤4 prenatal study visits (median: 12, 19, 26, 36 weeks of gestation) and 1 postpartum visit (median: 9 weeks), during which we collected biospecimens, health histories, demographic and behavioural data, and vitals and anthropometric measurements. Participants completed a postpartum fasting 2-hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Clinical data were abstracted from electronic medical records. Ongoing (as of 2024) extended post-pregnancy follow-up visits occur annually following similar data collection protocols. FINDINGS TO DATE: We enrolled 653 unique pregnancies and retained 633 through delivery. Participants had a mean age of 33 years, 10% (n=61) developed gestational diabetes and 8% (n=50) developed pre-eclampsia. Participant pregnancy and postpartum urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations and postpartum glycaemic biomarkers were quantified. To date, studies within ERGO found higher exposure to phthalates and phthalate mixtures, and separately, higher exposure to radioactive ambient particulate matter, were associated with adverse gestational glycaemic outcomes. Additionally, certain personal care products used in pregnancy, notably hair oils, were associated with higher urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations, earlier gestational age at delivery and lower birth weight. FUTURE PLANS: Future work will leverage the longitudinal data collected on pregnancy and cardiometabolic outcomes, environmental exposures, questionnaires, banked biospecimens and paediatric data within the ERGO Study.

Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Patients With Left Main Disease With and Without Diabetes: Findings From a Pooled Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes may be associated with differential outcomes in patients undergoing left main coronary revascularization with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The aim of this study was to investigate outcomes in patients with left main disease with and without diabetes randomized to PCI versus CABG. METHODS: Individual patient data were pooled from 4 trials (SYNTAX [Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery], PRECOMBAT [Premier of Randomized Comparison of Bypass Surgery Versus Angioplasty Using Sirolimus-Eluting Stent in Patients With Left Main Coronary Artery Disease], NOBLE [Nordic-Baltic-British Left Main Revascularisation Study], and EXCEL [Evaluation of XIENCE Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization]) that randomized patients with left main disease to PCI or CABG. Patients were considered suitable for either approach. Patients were categorized by diabetes status. Kaplan-Meier event rates, Cox model hazard ratios, and interactions were assessed. RESULTS: Among 4393 patients, 1104 (25.1%) had diabetes. Patients with diabetes experienced higher rates of 5-year death (158/1104 [Kaplan-Meier rate, 14.7%] versus 297/3289 [9.3%]; P<0.001), spontaneous myocardial infarction (MI; 67/1104 [6.7%] versus 114/3289 [3.7%]; P<0.001), and repeat revascularization (189/1104 [18.5%] versus 410/3289 [13.2%]; P<0.001). Rates of all-cause mortality did not differ after PCI versus CABG in those with (84/563 [15.3%] versus 74/541 [14.1%]; hazard ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.82-1.52]) or without (155/1634 [9.7%] versus 142/1655 [8.9%]; hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.86-1.36; PintHR=0.87) diabetes. Rates of stroke within 1 year were lower with PCI versus CABG in the entire population, with no heterogeneity based on diabetes status (PintHR=0.51). The 5-year rates of spontaneous MI and repeat coronary revascularization were higher after PCI regardless of diabetes status (spontaneous MI: 45/563 [8.9%] versus 22/541 [4.4%] in diabetes and 82/1634 [5.3%] versus 32/1655 [2.1%] in no diabetes, PintHR=0.47; repeat revascularization: 127/563 [24.5%] versus 62/541 [12.4%] in diabetes and 254/1634 [16.3%] versus 156/1655 [10.1%] in no diabetes, PintHR=0.18). For spontaneous MI and repeat revascularization, there were greater absolute risk differences beyond 1 year in patients with diabetes (4.9% and 9.9%) compared with those without (2.1% and 4.3%; PintARD=0.047 and 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with left main disease considered equally suitable for PCI or CABG and with largely low to intermediate SYNTAX scores, diabetes was associated with higher rates of death and cardiovascular events through 5 years. Compared with CABG, PCI resulted in no difference in the risk of death and a lower risk of early stroke regardless of diabetes status, and a higher risk of spontaneous MI and repeat coronary revascularization, with larger late absolute excess risks in patients with diabetes. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT01205776, NCT0146651, NCT00422968, and NCT00114972.

Medication use and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: using machine learning for an exposome-wide screen of a large clinical database.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that non-genetic factors have important etiologic roles in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), yet identification of specific culprit factors has been challenging. Many medications target biological pathways implicated in ALS pathogenesis, and screening large pharmacologic datasets for signals could greatly accelerate the identification of risk-modulating pharmacologic factors for ALS. METHOD: We conducted a high-dimensional screening of patients' history of medication use and ALS risk using an advanced machine learning approach based on gradient-boosted decision trees coupled with Bayesian model optimization and repeated data sampling. Clinical and medication dispensing data were obtained from a large Israeli health fund for 501 ALS cases and 4,998 matched controls using a lag period of 3 or 5 years prior to ALS diagnosis for ascertaining medication exposure. RESULTS: Of over 1,000 different medication classes, we identified 8 classes that were consistently associated with increased ALS risk across independently trained models, where most are indicated for control of symptoms implicated in ALS. Some suggestive protective effects were also observed, notably for vitamin E. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that use of certain medications well before the typically recognized prodromal period was associated with ALS risk. This could result because these medications increase ALS risk or could indicate that ALS symptoms can manifest well before suggested prodromal periods. The results also provide further evidence that vitamin E may be a protective factor for ALS. Targeted studies should be performed to elucidate the possible pathophysiological mechanisms while providing insights for therapeutics design.

Natriuretic peptides, body mass index and heart failure risk: Pooled analyses of SAVOR-TIMI 53, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61.

AIM: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations are lower in patients with obesity. The interaction between body mass index (BMI) and NT-proBNP with respect to heart failure risk remains incompletely defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were pooled across three randomized clinical trials enrolling predominantly patients who were overweight or obese with established cardiometabolic disease: SAVOR-TIMI 53, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61. Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) was examined across strata of baseline BMI and NT-proBNP. The effect of dapagliflozin versus placebo was assessed for a treatment interaction across BMI categories in patients with or without an elevated baseline NT-proBNP (≥125 pg/ml). Among 24 455 patients, the median NT-proBNP was 96 (interquartile range [IQR]: 43-225) pg/ml and the median BMI was 33 (IQR 29-37) kg/m2, with 68% of patients having a BMI ≥30 kg/m2. There was a significant inverse association between NT-proBNP and BMI which persisted after adjustment for all clinical variables (p < 0.001). Within any range of NT-proBNP, those at higher BMI had higher risk of HHF at 2 years (comparing BMI <30 vs. ≥40 kg/m2 for NT-proBNP ranges of <125, 125-<450 and ≥450 pg/ml: 0.0% vs. 0.6%, 1.3% vs. 4.0%, and 8.1% vs. 13.8%, respectively), which persisted after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj] 7.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.16-17.66, HRadj 3.22 [95% CI 2.13-4.86], and HRadj 1.87 [95% CI 1.35-2.60], respectively). In DECLARE-TIMI 58, dapagliflozin versus placebo consistently reduced HHF across BMI categories in those with an elevated NT-proBNP (p-trend for HR across BMI = 0.60), with a pattern of greater absolute risk reduction (ARR) at higher BMI (ARR for BMI <30 to ≥40 kg/m2: 2.2% to 4.7%; p-trend = 0.059). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of HHF varies across BMI categories for any given range of circulating NT-proBNP. These findings showcase the importance of considering BMI when applying NT-proBNP for heart failure risk stratification, particularly for patients with low-level elevations in NT-proBNP (125-<450 pg/ml) where there appears to be a clinically meaningful absolute and relative risk gradient.

Risk Assessment of Kidney Disease Progression and Efficacy of SGLT2 Inhibition in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk assessment tool to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at higher risk for kidney disease progression and who might benefit more from sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 41,204 patients with T2D from four Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) clinical trials were divided into derivation (70%) and validation cohorts (30%). Candidate predictors of kidney disease progression (composite of sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], end-stage kidney disease, or kidney death) were selected with multivariable Cox regression. Efficacy of dapagliflozin was assessed by risk categories (low: <0.5%; intermediate: 0.5 to <2%; high: ≥2%) in Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE)-TIMI 58. RESULTS: There were 695 events over a median follow-up of 2.4 years. The final model comprised eight independent predictors of kidney disease progression: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, T2D duration, glycated hemoglobin, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and hemoglobin. The c-indices were 0.798 (95% CI, 0.774-0.821) and 0.798 (95% CI, 0.765-0.831) in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plot slope (deciles of predicted vs. observed risk) was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) in the validation cohort. Whereas relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin did not differ across risk categories, there was greater absolute risk reduction in patients with higher baseline risk, with a 3.5% absolute risk reduction in kidney disease progression at 4 years in the highest risk group (≥1%/year). Results were similar with the 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium risk prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Risk models for kidney disease progression can be applied in patients with T2D to stratify risk and identify those who experience a greater magnitude of benefit from SGLT2 inhibition.

Association of Long-term Exposure to Air Pollution and Dementia Risk: The Role of Homocysteine, Methionine, and Cardiovascular Burden.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Growing evidence links air pollution with dementia risk, but the biological mechanisms are largely unknown. We investigated the role played by homocysteine (tHcy) and methionine in this association and explored whether this could be explained by cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). METHODS: Data were extracted from the ongoing Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), a longitudinal population-based study. At baseline, 2,512 dementia-free participants were examined up to 2013 (mean follow-up: 5.18 ± 2.96 years). Two air pollutants (particulate matter ≤2.5 µm [PM2.5] and nitrogen oxides [NOx]) were assessed yearly from 1990 until 2013 using dispersion models at residential addresses. The hazard ratio of dementia over air pollution levels was estimated using Cox models adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking, socioeconomic status, physical activity, retirement age, creatinine, year of assessment, and the use of supplements. The total effect of air pollutants on dementia was decomposed into 4 pathways involving tHcy/methionine: (1) direct effect; (2) indirect effect (mediation); (3) effect due to interaction; and (4) effect due to both mediation and interaction. To test whether the association was independent from CVDs (ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and stroke), we repeated the analyses excluding those individuals who developed CVDs. RESULTS: The mean age of the study participants was 73.4 years (SD: 10.4), and 62.1% were female individuals. During an average period of 5 years (mean: 5.18; SD: 2.96 years), 376 cases with incident dementia were identified. There was a 70% increased hazard of dementia per unit increase of PM2.5 during the 5 years before baseline (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.71; 95% CI 1.33-2.09). Overall, 50% (51.6%; 95% CI 9.0-94.1) of the total effect of PM2.5 on dementia was due to mediation of tHcy (6.6%; 95% CI 1.6-11.6) and/or interaction (47.8%; 95% CI 4.9-91.7) with tHcy and 48.4% (p = 0.03) to the direct effect of PM2.5 on dementia. High levels of methionine reduced the dementia hazard linked to PM2.5 by 31% (HR: 0.69; 95% CI 0.56-0.85) with 24.8% attributable to the interaction with methionine and 25.9% (p = 0.001) to the direct effect of PM2.5. No mediation effect was found through methionine. Attenuated results were obtained for NOx. Findings for tHcy were attenuated after excluding those who developed CVDs, while remained similar for methionine. DISCUSSION: High levels of homocysteine enhanced the dementia risk attributed to air pollution, while high methionine concentrations reduced this risk. The impact of homocysteine on cardiovascular conditions partly explains this association. Alternative pathways other than cardiovascular mechanisms may be at play between methionine and dementia.

Assessment of Atherothrombotic Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Risk of atherothrombotic events is not uniform in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Tailored risk assessment may help guide selection of pharmacotherapies for cardiovascular primary and secondary prevention. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a risk model for atherothrombosis in patients with T2DM. METHODS: We developed and validated a risk model for myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke (IS) in a pooled cohort of 42,181 patients with T2DM from 4 TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) clinical trial cohorts. Candidate variables were assessed with multivariable Cox regression, and independent variables (P < 0.05) were retained in the final model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. Treatment interactions with dapagliflozin (sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor) and evolocumab (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor) were explored in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 58) and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research with PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects with Elevated Risk) trials, respectively. RESULTS: Sixteen variables were independent predictors of MI or IS. The model identified a >8-fold gradient of MI or IS rates between the top vs bottom risk quintiles in the validation cohort (3-year Kaplan-Meier rate: 14.9% vs 1.4%; P < 0.0001). C-indexes were 0.704 and 0.706 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model was well-calibrated in both primary and secondary prevention. Absolute reduction in the rates of MI or IS tended to be greater in patients with higher baseline predicted risk for both dapagliflozin (absolute risk reduction: 2.1% vs 0.2%) and evolocumab (absolute risk reduction: 3.2% vs 1.0%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a risk score for atherothrombotic events, leveraging 16 routinely assessed clinical variables in patients with T2DM. The score has the potential to improve risk assessment and inform clinical decision-making.

Association between chemical mixtures and female fertility in women undergoing assisted reproduction in Sweden and Estonia.

OBJECTIVE: Women of reproductive age are exposed to ubiquitous chemicals such as phthalates, parabens, and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), which have potential endocrine disrupting properties and might affect fertility. Our objective was to investigate associations between potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and female fertility in two cohorts of women attending fertility clinics. METHODS: In a total population of 333 women in Sweden and Estonia, we studied the associations between chemicals and female fertility, evaluating ovarian sensitivity index (OSI) as an indicator of ovarian response, as well as clinical pregnancy and live birth from fresh and frozen embryo transfers. We measured 59 chemicals in follicular fluid samples and detected 3 phthalate metabolites, di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) metabolites, 1 paraben, and 6 PFAS in >90% of the women. Associations were evaluated using multivariable-adjusted linear or logistic regression, categorizing EDCs into quartiles of their distributions, as well as with Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression. RESULTS: We observed statistically significant lower OSI at higher concentrations of the sum of DEHP metabolites in the Swedish cohort (Q4 vs Q1, ß = -0.21, 95% CI: -0.38, -0.05) and methylparaben in the Estonian cohort (Q3 vs Q1, ß = -0.22, 95% CI: -0.44, -0.01). Signals of potential associations were also observed at higher concentrations of PFUnDA in both the combined population (Q2 vs. Q1, ß = -0.16, 95% CI -0.31, -0.02) and the Estonian population (Q2 vs. Q1, ß = -0.27, 95% CI -0.45, -0.08), and for PFOA in the Estonian population (Q4 vs. Q1, ß = -0.31, 95% CI -0.61, -0.01). Associations of chemicals with clinical pregnancy and live birth presented wide confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Within a large chemical mixture, we observed significant inverse associations levels of DEHP metabolites and methylparaben, and possibly PFUnDA and PFOA, with OSI, suggesting that these chemicals may contribute to altered ovarian function and infertility in women.

Racial and ethnic disparities in preterm birth: a mediation analysis incorporating mixtures of polybrominated diphenyl ethers.

Background: Racial and ethnic disparities persist in preterm birth (PTB) and gestational age (GA) at delivery in the United States. It remains unclear whether exposure to environmental chemicals contributes to these disparities. Objectives: We applied recent methodologies incorporating environmental mixtures as mediators in causal mediation analysis to examine whether racial and ethnic disparities in GA at delivery and PTB may be partially explained by exposures to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a class of chemicals used as flame retardants in the United States. Methods: Data from a multiracial/ethnic US cohort of 2008 individuals with low-risk singleton pregnancies were utilized, with plasma PBDE concentrations measured during early pregnancy. We performed mediation analyses incorporating three forms of mediators: (1) reducing all PBDEs to a weighted index, (2) selecting a PBDE congener, or (3) including all congeners simultaneously as multiple mediators, to evaluate whether PBDEs may contribute to the racial and ethnic disparities in PTB and GA at delivery, adjusted for potential confounders. Results: Among the 2008 participants, 552 self-identified as non-Hispanic White, 504 self-identified as non-Hispanic Black, 568 self-identified as Hispanic, and 384 self-identified as Asian/Pacific Islander. The non-Hispanic Black individuals had the highest mean ∑PBDEs, the shortest mean GA at delivery, and the highest rate of PTB. Overall, the difference in GA at delivery comparing non-Hispanic Black to non-Hispanic White women was -0.30 (95% CI: -0.54, -0.05) weeks. This disparity reduced to -0.23 (95% CI: -0.49, 0.02) and -0.18 (95% CI: -0.46, 0.10) weeks if fixing everyone's weighted index of PBDEs to the median and the 25th percentile levels, respectively. The proportion of disparity mediated by the weighted index of PBDEs was 11.8%. No statistically significant mediation was found for PTB, other forms of mediator(s), or other racial and ethnic groups. Conclusion: PBDE mixtures may partially mediate the Black vs. White disparity in GA at delivery. While further validations are needed, lowering the PBDEs at the population level might help reduce this disparity.

The impact of PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 on Covid-19 severity in a sample of patients with multiple sclerosis: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies investigated the association between air pollution and Covid-19 severity but the only study focusing on patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) exclusively evaluated exposure to PM2.5. We aim to study, in a sample of MS patients, the impact of long-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 on Covid-19 severity, described as occurrence of pneumonia. METHODS: A 1:2 ratio case-control study was designed, differentiating cases and controls based on Covid-19 pneumonia. Associations between pollutants and outcome were studied using logistic regression. Weighted quantile sum (WQS) logistic regression was used to identify the individual contribution of each pollutant within the mixture; Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized regression was performed to confirm the variable selection from WQS. All the analyses were adjusted for confounders selected a priori. RESULTS: Of the 615 eligible patients, 491 patients provided detailed place of exposure and were included in the principal analysis. Higher concentrations of air pollutants were associated with increased odds of developing Covid-19 pneumonia (PM2.5: 3rd vs 1st tercile OR(95% CI)=2.26(1.29;3.96); PM10: 3rd vs 1st tercile OR(95% CI)=2.12(1.22;3.68); NO2: 3rd vs 1st tercile OR(95% CI)=2.12(1.21;3.69)). Pollutants were highly correlated with each other; WQS index was associated to an increased risk of pneumonia (ß=0.44; p-value=0.004) and the main contributors to this association were NO2 (41%) and PM2.5 (34%). Consistently, Lasso method selected PM2.5 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Higher long-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 increased the odds of Covid-19 pneumonia among MS patients and the most dangerous pollutants were NO2 and PM2.5.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers in early pregnancy and preterm birth: Findings from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest associations between exposure to individual polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) with preterm birth (PTB) and shorter gestational age. Little is known about exposure to PBDE mixtures and these outcomes. We evaluated associations of multiple PBDEs in early pregnancy with gestational age at delivery and PTB. METHODS: Data were collected from 2046 women without obesity and 396 women with obesity from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies, who had early pregnancy plasma PBDEs concentrations and gestational age at delivery. PTB was defined as < 37 weeks of gestation at delivery and further categorized into subtypes (late or very early/moderate; spontaneous or medically indicated). We applied (1) generalized linear models (GLM); (2) principal component analysis (PCA); and (3) Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) to evaluate the individual and joint associations of log-transformed PBDE concentrations with gestational age at delivery and PTB, adjusting for potential confounders and evaluating effect modifiers. RESULTS: In GLM analyses, a 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in log-PBDE 153 was associated with shorter gestational age at delivery [adjusted ß (95% CI) = -0.19 (-0.31, -0.06) weeks] among women without obesity. In PCA analyses, 1-SD increase in the principal component summarizing most of PBDE 153 variability was associated with shorter gestational age at delivery [adjusted ß (95% CI) = -0.18 (-0.30, -0.06) weeks], very early/moderate PTB [adjusted OR (95% CI) = 1.91 (1.19, 3.07)], and spontaneous PTB [adjusted OR (95% CI) = 1.34 (1.00, 1.80)] among women without obesity. Associations were stronger among non-Hispanic Black women, women with BMI ranging between 25 and 30 kg/m2, and women who were ≥35 years old among those without obesity. In BKMR analyses, a suggestive inverse association between PBDE 153 and gestational age at delivery, and an inverse U-shaped association between PBDE 154 and gestational age at delivery were observed in women without obesity. No statistically significant association of PBDEs and gestational age or PTB was observed among women with obesity. CONCLUSIONS: PBDEs, specifically PBDE 153, were associated with shorter gestation and higher risk of certain PTB subtypes among pregnant women without obesity.

A Multipollutant Approach to Estimating Causal Effects of Air Pollution Mixtures on Overall Mortality in a Large, Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have confirmed associations between air pollution and overall mortality, but it is unclear to what extent these associations reflect causal relationships. Moreover, few studies to our knowledge have accounted for complex mixtures of air pollution. In this study, we evaluate the causal effects of a mixture of air pollutants on overall mortality in a large, prospective cohort of Dutch individuals. METHODS: We evaluated 86,882 individuals from the LIFEWORK study, assessing overall mortality between 2013 and 2017 through national registry linkage. We predicted outdoor concentration of five air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, PM2.5 absorbance, and oxidative potential) with land-use regression. We used logistic regression and mixture modeling (weighted quantile sum and boosted regression tree models) to identify potential confounders, assess pollutants' relevance in the mixture-outcome association, and investigate interactions and nonlinearities. Based on these results, we built a multivariate generalized propensity score model to estimate the causal effects of pollutant mixtures. RESULTS: Regression model results were influenced by multicollinearity. Weighted quantile sum and boosted regression tree models indicated that all components contributed to a positive linear association with the outcome, with PM2.5 being the most relevant contributor. In the multivariate propensity score model, PM2.5 (OR=1.18, 95% CI: 1.08-1.29) and PM10 (OR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.91-1.14) were associated with increased odds of mortality per interquartile range increase. CONCLUSION: Using novel methods for causal inference and mixture modeling in a large prospective cohort, this study strengthened the causal interpretation of air pollution effects on overall mortality, emphasizing the primary role of PM2.5 within the pollutant mixture.

The associations of prenatal exposure to dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls with neurodevelopment at 6 Months of age: Multi-pollutant approaches.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to persistent organic pollutants, including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs), and nondioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs), has been hypothesized to have a detrimental impact on neurodevelopment. However, the association of prenatal exposure to a dioxin and PCB mixture with neurodevelopment remains largely inconclusive partly because these chemical levels are correlated. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to elucidate the association of in utero exposure to a mixture of dioxins and PCBs with neurodevelopment measured at 6 months of age by applying multipollutant methods. METHODS: A total of 514 pregnant women were recruited between July 2002 and October 2005 in the Sapporo cohort, Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health. The concentrations of individual dioxin and PCB isomers were assessed in maternal peripheral blood during pregnancy. The mental and psychomotor development of the study participants' infants was evaluated using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-2nd Edition (n = 259). To determine both the joint and individual associations of prenatal exposure to a dioxin and PCB mixture with infant neurodevelopment, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and quantile-based g-computation were employed. RESULTS: Suggestive inverse associations were observed between in utero exposure to a dioxin and PCB mixture and infant psychomotor development in both the BKMR and quantile g-computation models. In contrast, we found no association of a dioxin and PCB mixture with mental development. When group-specific posterior inclusion probabilities were estimated, BKMR suggested prenatal exposure to mono-ortho PCBs as the more important contributing factors to early psychomotor development compared with the other dioxin or PCB groups. No evidence of nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships or interactions among the chemical mixtures was detected. CONCLUSIONS: Applying the two complementary statistical methods for chemical mixture analysis, we demonstrated limited evidence of inverse associations of prenatal exposure to dioxins and PCBs with infant psychomotor development.

Urinary phthalate and DINCH metabolite concentrations and gradations of maternal glucose intolerance.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest a link between pregnancy phthalate exposures and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Few studies have evaluated associations between phthalate biomarkers (individual or mixtures) with gradations of maternal glucose intolerance. METHODS: In a subset of 606 women participating in LIFECODES pregnancy cohort, a combination of 50-gram 1-h non-fasting glucose load test (GLT) and 100-gram 3-h fasting oral glucose tolerance test was used to determine pregnancy glycemic status (median: 27 weeks gestation): normoglycemia (n = 136), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (n = 296), and GDM (n = 174). Nineteen metabolites of phthalates and their replacements were measured during each trimester. We used multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate associations between biomarkers (in quartiles) and maternal glycemic status (GDM v. normoglycemia and IGT v. normoglycemia), adjusting for potential confounders. We also used principal component analysis to evaluate associations jointly accounting for metabolites as chemical mixtures. RESULTS: Higher 1st trimester mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate (MCPP) was associated with decreased odds of GDM (Q4 v. Q1: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.67) and IGT (Q4 v. Q1 OR: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.79). Higher 2nd trimester mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP) was associated with increased IGT (Q4 v. Q1 OR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.06, 4.07), and 2nd trimester mono-3-hydroxybutyl phthalate (MHBP) was non-monotonically associated with increased GDM (Q2 v. Q1 OR: 3.21; 95% CI: 1.54, 6.87). Mixture analyses showed similar associations (Q4 v. Q1 for 2nd trimester dibutyl phthalates metabotlites mixtures OR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.04, 4.22). CONCLUSION: Some phthalate biomarkershad trimester-specific associations with glycemic outcomes, with long and short term health implications.

Maternal Thyroid Anomalies and Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Progeny.

Previous epidemiologic investigations suggested that maternal thyroid anomalies are a possible causal factor in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in progeny, yet clinical trials indicated that levothyroxine treatment was ineffective in preventing neurodevelopmental impairments. We used an Israeli cohort of 385,542 singleton births from 1999-2012 to explore the interrelated roles of maternal thyroid conditions, laboratory gestational thyroid hormone measurements, use of thyroid medications, and offspring ADHD. Analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models. Results indicated that maternal hypothyroidism diagnosis was associated with an elevated progeny ADHD hazard (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval = 1.10, 1.18). However, this association was unmitigated by gestational use of levothyroxine and was unexplained by maternal gestational thyroid hormone levels. Associations with gestational thyrotropin values and hypothyroxinemia were also observed but were robust only in mothers without other records indicative of a thyroid problem. Results indicated that maternal thyroid hypofunction was associated with progeny ADHD but possibly not due to a direct causal relationship. Instead, maternal thyroid hypofunction may serve as a proxy indicator for other factors that affect neurodevelopment through thyroid hormone independent pathways, which are thus unaffected by pharmaceutical treatments for thyroid hypofunction. Factors known to disrupt thyroid functioning should be examined for their independent ADHD-related effects.

Ambient PM gross ß-activity and glucose levels during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ionizing radiation has been associated with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. In light of recent work showing an association between ambient particulate matter (PM) gross ß-activity and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) among pregnant women, we examined pregnancy glucose levels in relation to PM gross ß-activity to better understand this pathway. METHODS: Our study included 103 participants receiving prenatal care at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, MA. PM gross ß-activity was obtained from US Environmental Protection Agency's RadNet program monitors, and blood glucose levels were obtained from the non-fasting glucose challenge test performed clinically as the first step of the 2-step GDM screening test. For each exposure window we examined (i.e., moving average same-day, one-week, first-trimester, and second-trimester PM gross ß-activity), we fitted generalized additive models and adjusted for clinical characteristics, socio-demographic factors, temporal variables, and PM with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Subgroup analyses by maternal age and by body mass index were also conducted. RESULTS: An interquartile range increase in average PM gross ß-activity during the second trimester of pregnancy was associated with an increase of 17.5 (95% CI: 0.8, 34.3) mg/dL in glucose concentration. Associations were stronger among younger and overweight/obese participants. Our findings also suggest that the highest compared to the lowest quartile of one-week exposure was associated with 17.0 (95% CI: - 4.0, 38.0) mg/dL higher glucose levels. No associations of glucose were observed with PM gross ß-activity during same-day and first-trimester exposure windows. PM2.5 was not associated with glucose levels during any exposure window in our data. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to higher levels of ambient PM gross ß-activity was associated with higher blood glucose levels in pregnant patients, with implications for how this novel environmental factor could impact pregnancy health.

Socioeconomic and racial/ethnic differences in use of endocrine-disrupting chemical-associated personal care product categories among pregnant women.

Personal care products (PCPs) are important and modifiable sources of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Research is limited on how EDC-associated PCP use differs by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES), particularly during the sensitive period of pregnancy. We investigated differences in PCP use by race/ethnicity and SES among 497 participants in the LIFECODES pregnancy cohort (Boston, Massachusetts). Participants self-reported race/ethnicity, SES indicators (maternal education; insurance status), and recent PCP use via questionnaire at ≤4 prenatal visits. We evaluated trimester-specific differences in use of individual PCP categories by race/ethnicity and SES indicators. We used Poisson regression to estimate trimester-specific mean total product categories used by race/ethnicity and SES indicators. In the first trimester, compared to non-Hispanic White women, Hispanic women reported higher use of hair gel (45% vs. 28%), perfume (75% vs. 39%), and "other" hair products (37% vs. 19%). Compared to women with a college degree, women without a college degree reported higher use of perfume (79% vs. 41%) and bar soap (74% vs. 56%); patterns were similar for insurance status. The estimated mean total product categories used was significantly lower in Asian compared to non-Hispanic White women in all trimesters (e.g., Trimester 1: 4.8 vs. 6.7 categories; p<0.001). Patterns of PCP use differed by race/ethnicity and SES, with implications for potentially modifiable differential EDC exposure and associated pregnancy outcomes.