Application of a Rule-Based Approach in Real-Time Crash Risk Prediction Model Development Using Loop Detector Data.

OBJECTIVES: There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways. METHODS: In this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp. RESULTS: The results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems.

Street characteristics and traffic factors determining road users' exposure to black carbon.

Many studies nowadays make the effort of determining personal exposure rather than estimating exposure at the residential address only. While intra-urban air pollution can be modeled quite easily using interpolation methods, estimating exposure in transport is more challenging. The aim of this study is to investigate which factors determine black carbon (BC) concentrations in transport microenvironments. Therefore personal exposure measurements are carried out using portable aethalometers, trip diaries and GPS devices. More than 1500 trips, both by active modes and by motorized transport, are evaluated in Flanders, Belgium. GPS coordinates are assigned to road segments to allow BC concentrations to be linked with trip and road characteristics (trip duration, degree of urbanization, road type, traffic intensity, travel speed and road speed). Average BC concentrations on highways (10.7µg/m(3)) are comparable to concentrations on urban roads (9.6µg/m(3)), but levels are significantly higher than concentrations on rural roads (6.1µg/m(3)). Highways yield higher BC exposures for motorists compared to exposure on major roads and local roads. Overall BC concentrations are elevated at lower speeds (<30km/h) and at speeds above 80km/h, in accordance to vehicle emission functions. Driving on roads with low traffic intensities resulted in lower exposures than driving on roads with higher traffic intensities (from 5.6µg/m(3) for roads with less than 500veh/h, up to 12µg/m(3) for roads with over 2500veh/h). Traffic intensity proved to be the major explanatory variable for in-vehicle BC exposure, together with timing of the trip and urbanization. For cyclists and pedestrians the range in BC exposure is smaller and models are less predictive; for active modes exposure seems to be influenced by timing and degree of urbanization only.

Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: model exploration and application to a fuel price increase.

Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect. We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010-2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890-2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180-880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590-910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120-250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120-290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people. This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make policy integration more tangible. The model can therefore add to identifying win-win situations for both transport and health.

Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling.

Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the transportation system's effectiveness by changing travel behavior. The primary objective to implement such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the traffic safety impact of conducting a fuel-cost increase scenario (i.e. increasing the fuel price by 20%) in Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at an aggregate level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at a geographically aggregated level. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) are considered to present the association between observed crashes in each zone and a set of predictor variables. To this end, an activity-based transportation model framework is applied to produce exposure metrics which will be used in prediction models. This allows us to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models unlike traditional models in which the impact of TDM strategies are assumed. The crash data used in this study consist of fatal and injury crashes observed between 2004 and 2007. The network and socio-demographic variables are also collected from other sources. In this study, different ZCPMs are developed to predict the number of injury crashes (NOCs) (disaggregated by different severity levels and crash types) for both the null and the fuel-cost increase scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the fuel-cost increase scenario apart from its impact on the reduction of the total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A 20% increase in fuel price is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 5.02 billion (11.57% of the total annual VKT in Flanders), which causes the total NOCs to decline by 2.83%.

Translating road safety into health outcomes using a quantitative impact assessment model.

INTRODUCTION: The majority of traffic safety policies are limited to preventing mortality. However, non-fatal injuries also impose a significant risk of adverse health. Therefore, both mortality and morbidity outcomes should be included in the evaluation of traffic safety policies. The authors propose a method to evaluate different policy options taking into account both fatalities and serious injuries. METHODS: A health impact model was developed and aligned with a transport and road safety model, calculating the health impact of fatalities and seriously injured traffic victims for two transport scenarios in Flanders and Brussels (Belgium): a base scenario and a fuel price increase of 20% as an alternative. Victim counts were expressed as disability adjusted life years, using a combination of police and medical data. Seriously injured victims were assigned an injury, using injury distributions derived from hospital data, to estimate the resulting health impact from each crash. Health impact of fatalities was taken as the remaining life expectancy at the moment of the fatal crash. RESULTS: The fuel price scenario resulted in a decrease of health impact due to fatalities of 5.53%--5.85% and 3.37%--3.88% for severe injuries. This decrease was however not equal among all road users. CONCLUSIONS: With this method, the impact of traffic polices can be evaluated on both mortality and morbidity, while taking into account the variability of different injuries following a road crash. This model however still underestimates the impact due to non-fatal injuries.