Optimizing Medical Care during a Nerve Agent Mass Casualty Incident Using Computer Simulation.

INTRODUCTION: Chemical mass casualty incidents (MCIs) pose a substantial threat to public health and safety, with the capacity to overwhelm healthcare infrastructure and create societal disorder. Computer simulation systems are becoming an established mechanism to validate these plans due to their versatility, cost-effectiveness and lower susceptibility to ethical problems. METHODS: We created a computer simulation model of an urban subway sarin attack analogous to the 1995 Tokyo sarin incident. We created and combined evacuation, dispersion and victim models with the SIMEDIS computer simulator. We analyzed the effect of several possible approaches such as evacuation policy ('Scoop and Run' vs. 'Stay and Play'), three strategies (on-site decontamination and stabilization, off-site decontamination and stabilization, and on-site stabilization with off-site decontamination), preliminary triage, victim distribution methods, transport supervision skill level, and the effect of search and rescue capacity. RESULTS: Only evacuation policy, strategy and preliminary triage show significant effects on mortality. The total average mortality ranges from 14.7 deaths in the combination of off-site decontamination and Scoop and Run policy with pretriage, to 24 in the combination of onsite decontamination with the Stay and Play and no pretriage. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that in a simulated urban chemical MCI, a Stay and Play approach with on-site decontamination will lead to worse outcomes than a Scoop and Run approach with hospital-based decontamination. Quick transport of victims in combination with on-site antidote administration has the potential to save the most lives, due to faster hospital arrival for definitive care.

Advancing Military Medical Planning in Large Scale Combat Operations: Insights From Computer Simulation and Experimentation in NATO's Vigorous Warrior Exercise 2024.

INTRODUCTION: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine from Russian invasion presents a critical challenge to medical planning in the context of multi-domain battle against a peer adversary deploying conventional weapon systems. The potential escalation of preventable morbidity and mortality, reaching a scale unprecedented since World War II, underscores the paramount importance of effective phases of care from Point of Injury (PoI)/Point of Wounding (PoW) or Point of Exposure (PoE) to Role 1 (R1) and Role 2 (R2) echelons of care.The NATO Vigorous Warrior (VW) Live Exercise (LIVEX) serves as a strategic platform for NATO and its partners, providing an opportunity to challenge operational concepts, experiment, innovate life-saving systems, and foster best practices across the Alliance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study delineates the strategic application of the VW LIVEX platform for the adaptation of the computational simulation software Simulation for the Assessment and Optimization of Medical Disaster Management (SIMEDIS) within the context of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). The SIMEDIS computer simulator plays a pivotal role by furnishing real-time insights into the evolving injury patterns of patients, employing an all-hazards approach. This simulator facilitates the examination of temporal shifts in medical timelines and the ramifications of resource scarcity against both morbidity and mortality outcomes. The VW LIVEX provides a unique opportunity for systematic validation to evaluate the results of the computer simulator in a realistic setting and identify gaps for future concepts of operations. RESULTS: We report the process and methodologies to be evaluated at the VW LIVEX in far forward and retrospective medical support operations. Using the SIMEDIS simulator, we can define battlefield scenarios for varied situations including artillery, drone strikes, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and explosive (CBRNe) attacks. Casualty health progressions versus time are dependent on each threat. Mortality is computed based on the concepts found in Tactical Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) of "self-aid"/"buddy-aid" factoring in the application or absence of definitive traumatic hemorrhage control and on the distribution policy of victims to medical treatment facilities through appropriate Command and Control (C2) ("Scoop and Run" versus "Stay and Play"). The number of medical supplies available along with the number of transport resources and personnel are set and are scalable, with their effect on both morbidity and mortality quantified.Concept of Medical Operations can be optimized and interoperability enhanced when shared data are provided to C2 for prospective medical planning with retrospective data. The SIMEDIS simulator determines best practices of medical management for a myriad of injury types and tactical/operational situations relevant to policy making and battlefield medical planning for LSCO. CONCLUSIONS: The VW LIVEX provides a Concept Development and Experimentation platform for SIMEDIS refinement and conclusive insights into medical planning to reduce preventable morbidity and mortality. Recommending further iterations of similar methodologies at other NATO LIVEXs for validation is crucial, as is information sharing across the Alliance and partners to ensure best practice standards are met.

Creating realistic nerve agent victim profiles for computer simulation of medical CBRN disaster response.

In the last decades, Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats have become serious risks prompting countries to prioritize preparedness for such incidents. As CBRN scenarios are very difficult and expensive to recreate in real life, computer simulation is particularly suited for assessing the effectiveness of contingency plans and identifying areas of improvement. These computer simulation exercises require realistic and dynamic victim profiles, which are unavailable in a civilian context. In this paper we present a set of civilian nerve agent injury profiles consisting of clinical parameters and their evolution, as well as the methodology used to create them. These injury profiles are based on military injury profiles and adapted to the civilian population, using sarin for the purpose of illustration. They include commonly measured parameters in the prehospital setting. We demonstrate that information found in military sources can easily be adjusted for a civilian population using a few simple assumptions and validated methods. This methodology can easily be expanded to other chemical warfare agents as well as different ways of exposure. The resulting injury profiles are generic so they can also be used in tabletop and live simulation exercises. Modeling and simulation, if used correctly and in conjunction with empirical data gathered from lessons learned, can assist in providing the evidence practices for effective and efficient response decisions and interventions, considering the contextual factors of the affected area and the specific disaster scenario.