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1.
Hernia ; 2024 Apr 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38615297

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Intraoperative fascial traction (IFT) for the treatment of large ventral hernias and loss of domain (LOD) hernias is a promising tool in abdominal wall surgery. However, little is known about the extent of gain in myofascial advancement especially for the anterior rectus sheath. We, therefore, used a cadaveric model to determine the medialization during IFT. METHODS: 4 fresh frozen specimens were used. Retromuscular preparation was carried out followed by IFT with diagonal vertical traction for 30 min. Medial advancement of the anterior rectus sheath was measured after 15 and 30 min as well as traction forces. RESULTS: Total medialization for anterior rectus sheath after 30 min of IFT was 10.5 cm (mean). The mean traction force was 16.28 kg. Total medialization was significantly higher during the first 15 min of vertical fascial traction (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: IFT provides significant medialization for the anterior rectus sheath in the cadaveric model. The findings align with results from a retrospective case study. Therefore, we see IFT as a beneficial tool in abdominal wall surgery.

2.
Hernia ; 28(1): 179-190, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37603090

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Open sublay and laparoscopic IPOM repair have specific disadvantages and risks. In recent years, this evidence led to a paradigm shift and induced the development of new minimally invasive techniques of sublay mesh repair. METHODS: Pioneering this trend, we developed the endoscopically assisted mini- or less-open sublay (MILOS) concept. The operation is performed trans-hernially via a small incision with light-holding laparoscopic instruments either under direct, or endoscopic visualization. After dissection of an extra-peritoneal space of at least 8 cm, port placement and CO2 insufflation, each MILOS operation can be continued endoscopically (EMILOS repair). All E/MILOS operations were prospectively documented in the Herniamed Registry with 1- and 5-year questionnaire follow-ups. Propensity score matching of incisional hernia operations comparing the results of the E/MILOS operation with the laparoscopic intraperitoneal onlay mesh operation (IPOM) and open sublay repair from all other institutions participating in the Herniamed Registry was performed. The results with perioperative complications and 1-year follow-up have been published previously. RESULTS: This paper reports on the 5-year results. The 5-year follow-up rate was 87.5% (538 of 615 patients with E/MILOS incisional hernia operations). Comparing E/MILOS repair with laparoscopic IPOM and open sublay operation, propensity score matching analysis was possible with 448 and 520 pairs of operations, respectively. Compared with laparoscopic IPOM incisional hernia operation, the E/MILOS repair is associated with significantly fewer general complications (P = 0.004), recurrences (P < 0.001), less pain on exertion (P < 0.001), and less chronic pain requiring treatment (P = 0.016) and tends to result in fewer postoperative complications (P = 0.052), and less pain at rest (P = 0.053). Matched pair analysis with open sublay repair revealed significantly fewer general complications (P < 0.001), postoperative complications (P < 0.001), recurrences (P = 0.002), less pain at rest (P = 0.004), less pain on exertion (P < 0.001), and less chronic pain requiring treatment (P = 0.014). A limitation of this analysis is a relative low 5-year follow-up rate for laparoscopic IPOM and open sublay. CONCLUSIONS: The E/MILOS technique allows minimally invasive trans-hernial repair of incisional hernias using large standard meshes with low morbidity and good long-term results. The technique combines the advantages of sub-lay repair and a mini- or less-invasive approach. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03133000.


Subject(s)
Chronic Pain , Hernia, Ventral , Incisional Hernia , Laparoscopy , Humans , Incisional Hernia/surgery , Surgical Mesh , Chronic Pain/surgery , Propensity Score , Hernia, Ventral/surgery , Herniorrhaphy/adverse effects , Herniorrhaphy/methods , Laparoscopy/adverse effects , Laparoscopy/methods , Postoperative Complications/surgery , Registries
3.
Osteoporos Int ; 35(4): 599-611, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38040857

ABSTRACT

Awareness of the prevalence of osteoporosis and fractures across jurisdictions can guide the development of local preventive programs and healthcare policies. We observed geographical variations in total hip bone mineral density and in the prevalence of major osteoporotic fractures across Canadian provinces, which persisted after adjusting for important covariates. PURPOSE: We aimed to describe sex-specific total hip bone mineral density (aBMD) and prevalent major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) variation between Canadian provinces. METHODS: We used baseline data from 21,227 Canadians (10,716 women, 10,511 men) aged 50-85 years in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA; baseline: 2012-2015). Linear and logistic regression models were used to examine associations between province of residence and total hip aBMD and self-reported MOF, stratified by sex. CLSA sampling weights were used to generate the prevalence and regression estimates. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of participants was 63.9 (9.1) years. The mean body mass index (kg/m2) was lowest in British Columbia (27.4 [5.0]) and highest in Newfoundland and Labrador (28.8 [5.3]). Women and men from British Columbia had the lowest mean total hip aBMD and the lowest prevalence of MOF. Alberta had the highest proportion of participants reporting recent falls (12.0%), and Manitoba (8.4%) the fewest (p-value=0.002). Linear regression analyses demonstrated significant differences in total hip aBMD: women and men from British Columbia and Alberta, and women from Manitoba and Nova Scotia had lower adjusted total hip aBMD than Ontario (p-values<0.02). Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals, CI) for prevalent MOF were significantly lower in women from British Columbia (0.47 [95% CI: 0.32; 0.69]) and Quebec (0.68 [95% CI: 0.48; 0.97]) and in men from British Columbia (0.40 [95% CI:0.22; 0.71]) compared to Ontario (p-values<0.03). Results were similar when adjusting for physical performance measures and when restricting the analyses to participants who reported White race/ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Geographical variations in total hip aBMD and in the prevalence of MOF between provinces persisted after adjusting for important covariates which suggests an association with unmeasured individual and environmental factors.


Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , North American People , Osteoporotic Fractures , Female , Humans , Male , Aging , Bone Density , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Longitudinal Studies , Osteoporotic Fractures/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Canada
4.
Ann Oncol ; 35(6): 559-568, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38142939

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Osteosarcoma stratification relies on clinical parameters and histological response. We developed a new personalized stratification using less invasive circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) quantification. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Plasma from patients homogeneously treated in the prospective protocol OS2006, at diagnosis, before surgery and end of treatment, were sequenced using low-passage whole-genome sequencing (lpWGS) for copy number alteration detection. We developed a prediction tool including ctDNA quantification and known clinical parameters to estimate patients' individual risk of event. RESULTS: ctDNA quantification at diagnosis (diagCPA) was evaluated for 183 patients of the protocol OS2006. diagCPA as a continuous variable was a major prognostic factor, independent of other clinical parameters, including metastatic status [diagCPA hazard ratio (HR) = 3.5, P = 0.002 and 3.51, P = 0.012, for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS)]. At the time of surgery and until the end of treatment, diagCPA was also a major prognostic factor independent of histological response (diagCPA HR = 9.2, P < 0.001 and 11.6, P < 0.001, for PFS and OS). Therefore, the addition of diagCPA to metastatic status at diagnosis or poor histological response after surgery improved the prognostic stratification of patients with osteosarcoma. We developed the prediction tool PRONOS to generate individual risk estimations, showing great performance ctDNA quantification at the time of surgery and the end of treatment still required improvement to overcome the low sensitivity of lpWGS and to enable the follow-up of disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of ctDNA quantification to known risk factors improves the estimation of prognosis calculated by our prediction tool PRONOS. To confirm its value, an external validation in the Sarcoma 13 trial is underway.


Subject(s)
Biomarkers, Tumor , Bone Neoplasms , Circulating Tumor DNA , Osteosarcoma , Humans , Osteosarcoma/genetics , Osteosarcoma/blood , Osteosarcoma/pathology , Osteosarcoma/surgery , Osteosarcoma/mortality , Osteosarcoma/diagnosis , Circulating Tumor DNA/genetics , Circulating Tumor DNA/blood , Male , Female , Bone Neoplasms/genetics , Bone Neoplasms/pathology , Bone Neoplasms/blood , Bone Neoplasms/surgery , Bone Neoplasms/mortality , Adult , Adolescent , Prognosis , Biomarkers, Tumor/genetics , Biomarkers, Tumor/blood , Prospective Studies , Young Adult , Child , DNA Copy Number Variations , Neoplasm Grading , Middle Aged , Whole Genome Sequencing , Progression-Free Survival
5.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis ; 27(6): 458-464, 2023 06 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37231600

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Twelve weeks of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine (3HP) prevents TB disease among people with HIV (PWH), but the costs to people of taking TB preventive treatment is not well described.METHODS: We surveyed PWH who initiated 3HP at a large urban HIV/AIDS clinic in Kampala, Uganda, as part of a larger trial. We estimated the cost of one 3HP visit from the patient perspective, including both out-of-pocket costs and estimated lost wages. Costs were reported in 2021 Ugandan shillings (UGX) and US dollars (USD; USD1 = UGX3,587)RESULTS: The survey included 1,655 PWH. The median participant cost of one clinic visit was UGX19,200 (USD5.36), or 38.5% of the median weekly income. Per visit, the cost of transportation was the largest component (median: UGX10,000/USD2.79), followed by lost income (median: UGX4,200/USD1.16) and food (median: UGX2,000/USD0.56). Men reported greater income loss than women (median: UGX6,400/USD1.79 vs. UGX3,300/USD0.93), and participants who lived further than a 30-minute drive to the clinic had higher transportation costs than others (median: UGX14,000/USD3.90 vs. UGX8,000/USD2.23).CONCLUSION: Patient-level costs to receive 3HP accounted for over one-third of weekly income. Patient-centered approaches to averting or defraying these costs are needed.


Subject(s)
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , Latent Tuberculosis , Tuberculosis , Male , Humans , Female , Isoniazid/therapeutic use , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Uganda , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Latent Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Drug Therapy, Combination , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/drug therapy
6.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 18328, 2022 10 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36316348

ABSTRACT

In mountain areas, the phenology and productivity of grassland are closely related to snow dynamics. However, the influence that snow melt timing has on grassland growing still needs further attention for a full understanding, particularly at high spatial resolution. Aiming to reduce this knowledge gap, this work exploits 1 m resolution snow depth and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index observations acquired with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle at a sub-alpine site in the Pyrenees. During two snow seasons (2019-2020 and 2020-2021), 14 NDVI and 17 snow depth distributions were acquired over 48 ha. Despite the snow dynamics being different in the two seasons, the response of grasslands greening to snow melt-out exhibited a very similar pattern in both. The NDVI temporal evolution in areas with distinct melt-out dates reveals that sectors where the melt-out date occurs in late April or early May (optimum melt-out) reach the maximum vegetation productivity. Zones with an earlier or a later melt-out rarely reach peak NDVI values. The results obtained in this study area, suggest that knowledge about snow depth distribution is not needed to understand NDVI grassland dynamics. The analysis did not reveal a clear link between the spatial variability in snow duration and the diversity and richness of grassland communities within the study area.


Subject(s)
Grassland , Snow , Seasons , Temperature
10.
Science ; 373(6552): 300-306, 2021 07 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34112725

ABSTRACT

On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27 × 106 cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.

11.
Hum Reprod ; 36(6): 1561-1573, 2021 05 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33744927

ABSTRACT

STUDY QUESTION: Which chemotherapeutic agents and body site-specific radiation fields are dose-dependently associated with an increased risk of fertility impairment in long-term female childhood, adolescent and young adulthood (CAYA) cancer survivors? SUMMARY ANSWER: Busulfan, lower abdominal radiotherapy (RT) and total body irradiation (TBI) seem to be associated with fertility impairment at any dose, whereas gonadotoxicity of melphalan and procarbazine is suggested at medium/high (>140 mg/m2) or high dose (>5600 mg/m2) therapy, respectively. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Several treatment-related fertility deficits, as assessed by both self-reported outcomes and hormonal markers are known to occur following treatment of CAYA cancer. However, knowledge regarding precise dose-related estimates of these treatment-related risks are scarce. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The current case-control study was nested within the PanCareLIFE cohort study. In total, 1332 CAYA survivors from 8 countries, 9 institutions and 11 cohorts, participated in and contributed data to the study. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All participants were female 5-year CAYA cancer survivors. In total, 450 cases (fertility impaired survivors) and 882 matched controls (not fertility impaired survivors) were included. Fertility impairment was defined using both questionnaire data (primary or secondary amenorrhea; use of artificial reproductive techniques; unfulfilled wish to conceive) and hormonal data (FSH and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH)). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate the effect of (i) alkylating agent exposure, and (ii) dose categories for individual chemotherapeutic agents and for RT-exposed body sites. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A positive dose-effect relationship between cyclophosphamide equivalent dose (CED) score and fertility impairment was found, with survivors with a CED score > 7121 mg/m2 being at a significantly increased risk of fertility impairment (odds ratio (95% CI) = 2.6 (1.9-3.6) P < 0.001). Moreover, cumulative dose variables of the following treatments were significantly associated with fertility impairment: busulfan, carmustine, cyclophosphamide, melphalan, procarbazine, lower abdominal RT and TBI. Busulfan, lower abdominal RT and TBI seem to be associated with fertility impairment at any dose, whereas gonadotoxicity of melphalan and procarbazine is suggested at medium/high (>140 mg/m2) or high dose (>5600 mg/m2) therapy, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study may have been subject to selection bias since data from about half of the original base cohorts were available for the current study. This could impact the generalizability of our study results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We identified survivors at high risk for fertility impairment and, consequently, for a reduced or even absent reproductive life span. Both girls and young women who are about to start anti-cancer treatment, as well as adult female survivors, should be counselled about future parenthood and referred to a reproductive specialist for fertility preservation, if desired. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 602030. There are no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: n/a.


Subject(s)
Cancer Survivors , Fertility Preservation , Neoplasms , Adolescent , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Child , Cohort Studies , Female , Fertility , Humans , Male , Neoplasms/drug therapy , Young Adult
12.
Anaesthesist ; 70(9): 772-784, 2021 09.
Article in German | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33660043

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The number of high-risk patients undergoing surgery is steadily increasing. In order to maintain and, if necessary, optimize perioperative hemodynamics as well as the oxygen supply to the organs (DO2) in this patient population, a timely assessment of cardiac function and the underlying pathophysiological causes of hemodynamic instability is essential for the anesthesiologist. A variety of hemodynamic monitoring procedures are available for this purpose; however, due to method-immanent limitations they are often not able to directly identify the underlying cause of cardiovascular impairment. OBJECTIVE: To present a stepwise algorithm for a perioperative echocardiography-based hemodynamic optimization in noncardiac surgery high-risk patients. In this context, echocardiography on demand according to international guidelines can be performed under certain conditions (hemodynamic instability, nonresponse to hemodynamic treatment) as well as in the context of a planned intraoperative procedure, mostly as a transesophageal echocardiography. METHODS AND RESULTS: Hemodynamically focused echocardiography as a rapidly available bedside method, enables the timely diagnosis and assessment of cardiac filling obstructions, volume status and volume response, right and left heart function, and the function of the heart valves. CONCLUSION: Integrating all echocardiographic findings in a differentiated assessment of the patient's cardiovascular function enables a (patho)physiologically oriented and individualized hemodynamic treatment.


Subject(s)
Echocardiography, Transesophageal , Echocardiography , Anesthesiologists , Heart , Hemodynamics , Humans
13.
J Clin Monit Comput ; 35(2): 229-243, 2021 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32458170

ABSTRACT

The number of high-risk patients undergoing surgery is growing. To maintain adequate hemodynamic functioning as well as oxygen delivery to the vital organs (DO2) amongst this patient population, a rapid assessment of cardiac functioning is essential for the anesthesiologist. Pinpointing any underlying cardiovascular pathophysiology can be decisive to guide interventions in the intraoperative setting. Various techniques are available to monitor the hemodynamic status of the patient, however due to intrinsic limitations, many of these methods may not be able to directly identify the underlying cause of cardiovascular impairment. Hemodynamic focused echocardiography, as a rapid diagnostic method, offers an excellent opportunity to examine signs of filling impairment, cardiac preload, myocardial contractility and the function of the heart valves. We thus propose a 6-step-echocardiographic approach to assess high-risk patients in order to improve and maintain perioperative DO2. The summary of all echocardiographic based findings allows a differentiated assessment of the patient's cardiovascular function and can thus help guide a (patho)physiological-orientated and individualized hemodynamic therapy.


Subject(s)
Echocardiography , Hemodynamics , Anesthesiologists , Heart , Humans , Monitoring, Physiologic
15.
Arch Osteoporos ; 15(1): 147, 2020 09 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32955674

ABSTRACT

Fracture determinants differ between Canadians of Chinese and White descent, the former constituting the second largest visible minority group in Canada. The results of this study support the importance of characterizing bone health predictors in Canadians of different ethnicity to improve population-specific fracture prevention and treatment strategies. PURPOSE: We aimed to compare clinical risk factors, bone mineral density, prevalence of osteoporosis, and fractures between Chinese and White Canadians to identify ethnicity-specific risks. METHODS: We studied 236 Chinese and 8945 White Canadians aged 25+ years from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos). The prevalence of osteoporosis using ethnicity-specific peak bone mass (PBM), and of prior and incident low trauma fractures were assessed and compared between groups. Linear regressions, adjusting for age and anthropometric measures, were used to examine the association between baseline and 5-year changes in BMD and ethnicity. RESULTS: Chinese participants had shorter stature, lower BMI, and lower rate of falls than White participants. Adjusted models showed no significant differences in baseline BMD between ethnic groups except in younger men where total hip BMD was 0.059 g/cm2 (0.009; 0.108) lower in Chinese. Adjusted 5-year BMD change at lumbar spine was higher in older Chinese women and men compared with Whites. When using Chinese-specific PBM, the prevalence of osteoporosis in Chinese women was 2-fold lower than when using that of White women The prevalence of fractures was higher in White women compared with Chinese with differences up to 14.5% (95% CI 9.2; 19.7) and 10.5% (95% CI 4.5-16.4) in older White men. Incident fractures were rare in young Chinese compared with White participants and not different in the older groups. CONCLUSION: Our results support the importance of characterizing bone strength predictors in Chinese Canadians and the development of ethnicity-specific fracture prediction and prevention strategies.


Subject(s)
Asian People/statistics & numerical data , Bone Density , Fractures, Bone/epidemiology , Osteoporosis/epidemiology , White People/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Canada/epidemiology , Female , Fractures, Bone/ethnology , Humans , Male , Osteoporosis/ethnology , Prevalence , Risk Factors
16.
HNO ; 68(11): 838-846, 2020 Nov.
Article in German | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32840646

ABSTRACT

Experience with an interdisciplinary SOP (standard operating procedure) for tracheostomy (TS) in COVID-19 patients, taking into account the general national and international recommendations, is reported. The operative timing of TS due to prolonged invasive ventilation and frustrating weaning attempts was determined on an interdisciplinary level and involved phases of both high and low disease activity. Five TS were performed in patients with an average age of 70.6 years. In addition to the standard COVID-19 protective measures for medical staff to avoid nosocomial COVID-19 infection, SOP-supported communication during the TS leads to periprocedural safety for all involved. COVID-19 infections among medical staff in the departments involved are not yet known.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Tracheostomy , Aged , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Eur J Surg Oncol ; 46(7): 1301-1309, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32334938

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Survival of adolescents and young adults (AYA) with sarcoma is lower than in younger patients. The objective of this study was to describe the regional healthcare circuits, the differences in the management between adult, paediatric and mixed units and to assess the prognostic impact of compliance with clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) on overall survival (OS) and on relapse free survival (RFS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the management and long term follow-up of all 13-25 year old patients with a sarcoma diagnosed in the Rhône-Alpes area between 2000 and 2005. RESULTS: 140 patients satisfied inclusion criteria and were selected. The majority of 13-25 year old patients were treated in paediatric units. Joint management resulted in a higher rate of discussion in multidisciplinary tumour board, inclusion in clinical trials, and fertility preservation. Non-compliance with guidelines was observed in 65% of cases. Overall compliance was not reported to correlate to survival. Compliance of radiotherapy with CPG's seemed associated with a better prognosis for OS (HR = 0.20, 95% CI = [0.10-0.40]; p < 0.0001) and RFS (HR = 0.18, 95% CI = [0.09-0.37; p < 0.0001) as well as compliance of surgery for OS (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = [0.23-0.81]; p = 0.01). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed other independent predictors of OS like age at diagnosis, stage and histological subtype. CONCLUSIONS: Management of AYA in joint units seems to improve the quality of care. Compliance of surgery and radiotherapy with CGP's seems to improve survival.


Subject(s)
Guideline Adherence , Sarcoma/pathology , Sarcoma/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Disease-Free Survival , Female , Follow-Up Studies , France , Humans , Interdisciplinary Communication , Male , Neoplasm Staging , Patient Care Team , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Radiotherapy/standards , Retrospective Studies , Surgical Procedures, Operative/standards , Survival Rate , Young Adult
20.
Osteoporos Int ; 31(6): 1145-1153, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32034452

ABSTRACT

We examined the underlying relationship between fracture risk factors and their imminent risk. Results suggested that having past year fracture, worse past year general health, worse past year physical functioning, and lower past year BMD T-score directly predicted higher imminent fracture risk. Past year falls indirectly predicted imminent risk through physical functioning and general health. INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to examine direct and indirect effects of several factors on imminent (1 year) fracture risk. METHODS: Data from women age 65 and older from population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were used. Predictors were identified from study years 5 and 10, and imminent fracture data (1-year fracture) came from years 6 and 11 (year 5 predicts year 6, year 10 predicts year 11). A structural equation model (SEM) was used to test the theoretical construct. General health and physical functioning were measured as latent variables using items from the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and bone mineral density (BMD) T-score was a latent variable based on observed site-specific BMD data (spine L1-L4, femoral neck, total hip). Observed variables were fractures and falls. Model fit was evaluated using root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), Tucker Lewis index (TLI), and comparative fit index (CFI). RESULTS: The analysis included 3298 women. Model fit tests showed that the SEM fit the data well; χ2(172) = 1122.10 < .001, RMSEA = .03, TLI = .99, CFI = .99. Results suggested that having past year fracture, worse past year general health, worse past year physical functioning, and lower past year BMD T-score directly predicted higher risk of fracture in the subsequent year (p < .001). Past year falls had a statistically significant but indirect effect on imminent fracture risk through physical functioning and general health (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We found several direct and indirect pathways that predicted imminent fracture risk in elderly women. Future studies should extend this work by developing risk scoring methods and defining imminent risk thresholds.


Subject(s)
Bone Density , Fractures, Bone/epidemiology , Osteoporosis/epidemiology , Aged , Canada/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Risk Factors
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