Development and assessment of an epidemiologic dashboard for surveillance of Varroa destructor in Ontario apiaries.

Varroosis (caused by the Varroa destructor mite) is a key health issue for honey bees in North America. Because these mites can exist in reservoirs of feral honey bee colonies, eradication is impossible, and instead efforts are made to maintain mites below a critical threshold. Monitoring for Varroa mites within a population is key for allocating resources and targeting interventions but surveillance can be difficult and/or expensive. This project aims to reflect on the success of data dashboards developed throughout the 2019-coronavirus pandemic and showcase how these methods can improve surveillance of Varroa mite infestations in Ontario, Canada. Dashboards provide a consistent source of information and epidemiologic metrics through data visualizations, and mobilize data otherwise bound to tables and intermittent reports. In the present work, an interactive dashboard for the surveillance of Varroa mite infestations across the province is proposed. This dashboard was developed using routine ministry inspection data to depict the spatio-temporal distribution of mites across a five-year data collection period. Through interactive figures and plots, able to be disaggregated to a specific region and time frame, this dashboard will allow for members of the beekeeping community to monitor provincial mite levels throughout the season. Seven criteria found to be common across highly actionable COVID-19 dashboards were used in a beta testing stage of development to assess the quality of the dashboard, and critically reflect on its strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, future directions for surveillance dashboards are explored, including integration with citizen science data collection to develop a comprehensive province-wide surveillance system. The outcome of this project is a functional dashboard proof-of-concept for population-level monitoring of Varroa mites and a model for future tools designed for other species and diseases.

An investigation of blood, milk, and urine test patterns for the diagnosis of ketosis in dairy cows in early lactation.

Ketosis in dairy cattle is primarily diagnosed based on the concentrations of ketone bodies in the blood, milk, or urine. Cow-side tests using these fluids are available for rapid detection of elevated concentrations of ketone bodies. Although these tests have been extensively validated, the performance of different tests has not been compared over time. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between point-of-care diagnostic tests measuring the concentrations of ß-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) in blood (BT; Precision Xtra, Abbott Laboratories), BHB in milk (MT; Keto-Test, Elanco), and acetoacetate (AcAc) in urine (UT; Ketostix, Bayer Corporation) through cases of ketosis. Holstein cows (n = 148) were screened daily for hyperketonemia (HYK; blood BHB ≥1.2 mmol/L) from 3 to 16 d in milk (DIM); moreover, milk and urine samples were collected concomitantly and tested for ketones (ketosis thresholds: 100 µmol/L milk BHB and 5 mg/dL urine AcAc). Of the animals screened (n = 148), 74% were diagnosed with HYK. When diagnosed with HYK, cows were treated with propylene glycol orally once daily for 5 d. After the day of diagnosis (d 0), hyperketonemic cows were retested with BT, MT, and UT for 3 d (d 1, 2, and 3). We assessed the diagnostic test performance and time to ketosis (survival analyses and Cox proportional hazards models) of MT and UT compared with BT. Considering all paired samples (before and after diagnosis of HYK), MT had 61% sensitivity and 91% specificity, whereas the UT had 77% sensitivity and 94% specificity compared with BT. The specificity of MT and UT increased from d 0 to d 1, decreased on d 2, and increased on d 3. The median time to diagnosis of ketosis in blood was 5 DIM (95% CI 5 to 7 DIM); moreover, MT and UT had 2 d greater median time to diagnosis of ketosis compared with the BT [7 DIM (6 to 11 d); and 7 DIM (6 to 13 d), respectively]. We concluded that the UT is a more sensitive predictor of blood BHB concentration than the MT. The UT and MT tests diagnosed ketotic cows approximately 2 d later than the BT. The possible consequences of delay in detection of ketosis in milk and urine should be investigated.

A geographic study of West Nile virus in humans, dead corvids and mosquitoes in Ontario using spatial scan statistics with a survival time application.

Surveillance of West Nile virus (WNv) in Ontario has included passive reporting of human cases and testing of trapped mosquitoes and dead birds found by the public. The dead bird surveillance programme was limited to testing within a public health unit (PHU) until a small number of birds test positive. These dead corvid and mosquito surveillance programmes have not been compared for their ability to provide early warning in geographic areas where human cases occur each year. Spatial scan statistics were applied to time-to-event survival data based on first cases of WNv in found dead corvids, mosquitoes and humans. Clusters identified using raw data were compared to clusters based on model-adjusted survival times to evaluate whether geographic and sociodemographic factors influenced their distribution. Statistically significant (p < .05) space-time clusters of PHUs with faster time to detection were found using each surveillance data stream. During 2002-2004, the corvid surveillance programme outperformed the mosquito programme in terms of time to WNv detection, while the clusters of first-positive mosquito pools were more spatially similar to first human cases. In 2006, a cluster of first-positive dead corvids was located in northern PHUs and preceded a cluster of early human cases that was identified after controlling for the influence of geographic region and sociodemographic profile.

Analysis of the Association of Climate, Weather and Herd Immunity with the Spread of Equine Encephalosis Virus in Horses in Israel.

It is claimed that the distribution of Culicoides-borne viruses is highly influenced by climate. Equine encephalosis virus (EEV) is a Culicoides-borne orbivirus which affects horses and was recently found to be endemic in Israel. To test whether climate is a crucial factor in the geographical distribution of EEV, we collected blood samples from horses in Israel during the years 2002, 2007 and 2010 and tested them for the abundance of antibodies to EEV. Samples were also collected in 2011 from horses that were seronegative to the virus in 2010, to determine the rate of infection with EEV. It was found that seroprevalence fluctuated between the years and that in each year it was highest in a different climatic region. Interestingly, analysis of infection rate at the different farms showed a negative association with seroprevalence at prior observations. In addition, analysis of precipitation preceding the outbreak of EEV which occurred during 2008 revealed that an extremely dry period existed several months prior to the febrile outbreak with the average precipitation of spring 2008 being significantly lower than the average spring precipitation of the years 1997-2009. It is therefore conjectured that exposure to EEV is not climate specific. Rather, it is highly influenced by herd immunity and weather fluctuations which might change annually. This finding may have important implications for the prediction of the abundance of Culicoides-borne viruses in endemic regions.

Evaluation of the Control of West Nile Virus in Ontario: Did Risk Patterns Change from 2005 to 2012?

The goal of this study was to evaluate and compare the risk distribution of human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) disease in Ontario in 2005 to 2012. The objectives were to: map the risk distribution of WNV in 2005 and 2012, identify clusters of human WNV disease and determine whether the clusters are significantly different between the years 2005 and 2012. West Nile virus surveillance data were used to calculate empirical Bayesian smoothed estimates of disease incidence in southern Ontario for 2005 and 2012. Choropleth maps were generated to visualize the spatial risk distribution, and the spatial scan test was performed to identify clusters of disease. Following identification of clusters for 2005 and 2012, a Poisson model was applied to the 2012 human WNV incidence adjusted for the smoothed human WNV incidence rate from 2005 and the scan test was repeated. Two significant clusters were identified in both the year 2005 and 2012. In 2005, the primary cluster was located in the Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent public health units (PHUs). For 2012, the primary cluster was identified in the Golden Horseshoe area. A cluster analysis for 2012 adjusted for those identified in 2005 resulted in one significant cluster in the Windsor-Essex PHU. In 2012, the Windsor-Essex PHU remained as a high-risk area for human WNV disease when compared with the rest of southern Ontario. Although overall risk may change from year to year, public health programming should be employed to decrease the relative risk of WNV in this area.

Nuisances and welfare of free-roaming cats in urban settings and their association with cat reproduction.

Free roaming cats (FRC) are highly abundant in cities around the world. Increasing populations of these cats might result in impairment of cat welfare and cause nuisances and public health risks. In order to study the seasonal dynamics of FRC populations and its association with events of cat welfare impairment and nuisances, we analyzed a database of FRC-associated citizens' telephone complaint events, which were registered in five cities in Israel (total human population of 1.42 million residents) during the years 2007-2011. These complaint events were classified to the following six categories: cat's carcasses, kittens, parturition, aggressive behavior toward people, invasion to human facilities, and cat injuries and distress. Overall, 87,764 complaint events associated with these categories were registered in the five cities during the study period (123.2 complaint events per 10,000 citizens per year). Length of daylight was moderately correlated with the rate of complaints on kittens in the same month (r=0.64) and parturition in the previous month (r=0.54) (P<0.001). Both kitten and parturition-related complaints showed a prominent seasonal pattern, peaking in April and May, respectively, and declining gradually until November. 'Kittens' or 'parturition' were explicitly mentioned in 38%, 39% and 19%, respectively, of the complaints regarding cat aggressiveness toward people, cat invasion to human facilities and cat injuries and distress. In most of the cities the rate of citizen complaints regarding carcasses, aggression, invasion and injuries were still significantly correlated with rate of complaints regarding kittens after omission of these joint complaints and remained significant after controlling for seasonality. These findings imply an association of cat welfare impairment and nuisances with FRC reproduction intensity. The current study revealed the high rate of nuisances and potential public health hazards related to FRC, as well as the impairment of cat welfare, which might be merely 'the tip of the iceberg' of the real welfare situation of these cats. Further studies should examine the effectiveness of FRC population control strategies for the reduction of the rate of nuisances and public health risks related to FRC, as well as for improving their welfare.

An evaluation of rabies vaccination rates among canines and felines involved in biting incidents within the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health Department.

The objectives of this study were to determine the rate of animal bite incidents occurring in the human population of a local health department, and to determine the proportion of these canines and felines that were not up to date on their rabies vaccination at the time the incident occurred. Data were obtained from animal bite incidents reported to Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health during 2010 and 2011. Descriptive statistics of 718 eligible reports revealed the average rate of animal biting was 1.55 bites per 1000 residents per year. Approximately 54% of these animals were vaccinated against rabies, 32% were not up to date with their rabies vaccination, and the remaining 14.5% were of unknown status. The unit of analysis was the municipality, and the four outcomes of interest were: (i) number of animal bite incidents per 1000 residents, (ii) number of dog bite incidents per 1000 residents, (iii) proportion of animals involved in bite incidents that were not up to date with their rabies vaccination, and (iv) proportion of dogs that were not up to date. Associations between the outcomes and selected demographic variables were investigated using regression analysis. The number of veterinary clinics per 10,000 residents, and whether the municipality was urban or rural were identified as significant predictors for the number of animal bites per 1000 residents, and the number of dog bites. There were no significant predictors for the proportion of unvaccinated animals or dogs. Spatial clustering and the location of spatial clusters were assessed using the empirical Bayes index and spatial scan test. This analysis identified five municipalities within the health department that have a high rate of biting incidents and a high proportion of animals that were not up to date on their rabies vaccination. Such municipalities are ideal for targeted educational campaigns regarding the importance of vaccination in pets.

Genetic parameters for producer-recorded health data in Canadian Holstein cattle.

Health traits are of paramount importance for economic dairy production. Improvement in liability to diseases has been made with better management practices, but genetic aspects of health traits have received less attention. Dairy producers in Canada have been recording eight health traits (mastitis (MAST), lameness (LAME), cystic ovarian disease (COD), left displaced abomasum (LDA), ketosis (KET), metritis (MET), milk fever (MF) and retained placenta (RP)) since April 2007. Genetic analyses of these traits were carried out in this study for the Holstein breed. Edits on herd distributions of recorded diseases were applied to the data to ensure a sufficient quality of recording. Traits were analysed either individually (MAST, LAME, COD) or were grouped according to biological similarities (LDA and KET, and MET, MF and RP) and analysed with multiple-trait models. Data included 46 104 cases of any of the above diseases. Incidence ranged from 2.3% for MF to 9.7% for MAST. MET and KET also had an incidence below 4.0%. Variance components were estimated using four different sire threshold models. The differences between models resulted from the inclusion of days at risk (DAR) and a cow effect, in addition to herd, parity and sire effects. Models were compared using mean squared error statistic. Mean squared error favoured, in general, the sire and cow within sire model with regression on DAR included. Heritabilities on the liability scale were between 0.02 (MET) and 0.21 (LDA). There was a moderate, positive genetic correlation between LDA and KET (0.58), and between MET and RP (0.79).

Current status of canine cancer registration - report from an international workshop.

This is a report from a workshop on canine cancer registration hosted at the Norwegian School of Veterinary Science in Oslo in August 2010. The aim is to present a summary of the current efforts to gather data on canine (and feline) cancer based on information from participants at the workshop. A definition and classification of cancer registries is provided together with an inventory of the databases presented. Particular focus is placed on the distinction between population-based and hospital-based cancer registries. Future challenges are discussed and issues relating to harmonization of diagnostic coding, defining the population-at-risk, individual animal identification and data quality are included. Finally, other groups working within the field of cancer registration in companion animals are encouraged to contact the authors for future collaboration.

Antimicrobial resistance in Campylobacter spp. isolated from Ontario sheep flocks and associations between antimicrobial use and antimicrobial resistance.

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in faecal Campylobacter spp. from lambs and adult sheep and associations between antimicrobial use (AMU) and AMR. A total of 275 faecal samples collected during initial and final visits from 51 sheep flocks, including one feedlot, across southern Ontario were tested for the presence of Campylobacter spp. Campylobacter jejuni was detected in 52% (143/275) of the faecal samples, Campylobacter coli in 7% (19/275), Campylobacter lari in 1% (2/275) and 2% (4/275) were non-speciated Campylobacter. Broth microdilution was used to test antimicrobial susceptibility of 162 isolates to nine antimicrobials. Campylobacter jejuni isolates (n = 142) were resistant to tetracycline (39%), ciprofloxacin (4%), nalidixic acid (4%) and telithromycin (1%). C. coli isolates (n = 19) were resistant to tetracycline (74%), and azithromycin, clindamycin, erythromycin, and telithromycin (5%). The C. lari isolate displayed resistance to nalidixic acid. No statistically significant associations were found between AMU and AMR during multivariate modelling in this study.

Environmental characteristics associated with campylobacteriosis: accounting for the effect of age and season.

Campylobacteriosis is a leading cause of acute bacterial gastroenteritis. An ecological study was undertaken to explore the association between environmental characteristics and incidence of campylobacteriosis in relation to four age groups and two seasonal periods. A multi-level Poisson regression model was used for modelling at the municipal level. High ruminant density was positively associated with incidence of campylobacteriosis, with a reduced effect as people become older. High poultry density and presence of a large poultry slaughterhouse were also associated with higher incidence, but only for people aged 16-34 years. The effect of ruminant density, poultry density, and slaughterhouses were constant across seasonal periods. Other associations were detected with population density and average daily precipitation. Close contacts with farm animals are probably involved in the associations observed. The specificity of age and season on this important disease must be considered in further studies and in the design of preventive measures.

The risk of a positive test for bovine tuberculosis in cattle purchased from herds with and without a recent history of bovine tuberculosis in Ireland.

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess if cattle sold from Irish dairy herds within 7 months of herd de-restriction (clearance to trade) from a bovine-tuberculosis (BTB) episode had an excess risk of testing positive for BTB during the following 2 years, and to determine other risk factors associated with this outcome. If possible, a predictive metric for herds at high risk of selling future BTB-positive cattle would be generated. The unexposed cohort included all cattle sold within 7 months of the annual herd test in a random sample of dairy herds that did not test positive for BTB in 2003. The exposed cohort consisted of all cattle sold within 7 months of the date of de-restriction in all dairy herds that cleared a BTB episode in 2003. Only cattle sold from herds that were initially found to test positive for BTB using the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT)-and not due to discovery of a BTB-positive animal at slaughter-were included as exposed cattle. To aid in the development of a predictive metric, the exposed cohort was subcategorized based on the number of reactors to the SICTT in the herd of origin during the BTB episode immediately prior to sale. The final exposure categories of 0 (unexposed), 1-7, and >or=8 total reactors were considered the unexposed, mildly exposed, and severely exposed cohorts, respectively. A multivariable logistic regression model was fit to the final BTB status of the animal using a generalized estimating equation method (GEE), assuming an exchangeable correlation structure of animals within herds, and using robust standard errors. Exposure level and the other available herd- and animal-level information were modeled. After controlling for other risk factors including the size of the herd of origin and the sex and age of the animal, the three-level exposure variable significantly improved the model (based on a change in Quasi-Akaike Information Criteria of 2.2) and demonstrated a trend of increasing risk of a future positive BTB test with increasing exposure category. The severely exposed cohort of animals had significantly higher risk of a future positive BTB test than the unexposed cohort (OR=1.78, p=0.030).

An analysis of the relationship between bulk tank milk quality and wash water quality on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

The objective of this study was to identify regions at high risk for bacterial water or milk contamination, as well as risk factors associated with high bacteria counts in raw milk in Ontario, Canada. Between 2003 and 2004, the Dairy Farmers of Ontario (DFO) tested water samples from 5,421 farms in Ontario for the presence of Escherichia coli and coliforms. The water samples were collected as "point-of-use" samples, meaning that each sample was taken from a tap or water hose in the milk house as soon as the water was turned on. Routine, monthly raw milk bacterial counts were determined by DFO using BactoScan (Foss, Hillerød, Denmark). BactoScan data were retrieved from DFO for all of the farms with water test results. The prevalence of samples with E. coli and coliforms in water and elevated bacteria counts in raw milk was 13.6, 53.8, and 2.8%, respectively. The spatial analysis, using a scan statistic, revealed 1 coliform and 3 E. coli clusters of contaminated water, but no clusters of elevated milk bacteria counts in raw milk in southern Ontario. The coliform water contamination cluster was the largest, with a radius of approximately 200 km. Regression analysis indicated that risk factors associated with the occurrence of high levels of bacteria in raw milk were elevated average monthly somatic cell count, increased total milk production, cooler seasons of the year, and the presence of E. coli in wash water.

Targeted badger removal and the subsequent risk of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in county Laois, Ireland.

We investigated the impact of targeted removal of badgers on the subsequent bovine tuberculosis (BTB) risk in cattle herds in county Laois, Ireland. The study period was 1989-2005. For each of 122 targeted badger-removal licenses (permit to remove badgers in the proximity of cattle herds undergoing a serious BTB episode), the herd number (index herd) for which the license was given was obtained. The herds in the proximity of the index herd were identified from another database. The main "exposure" in our study was the geographical location of herds relative to the area in which targeted badger removal was conducted. We categorized herds into five different exposure groups: herds were classified as non-exposed and denoted as group 0 (reference group) if they were located 500 m or more from the edge of any parcel of land of the index herd; group 1, was the index herds, group 2 the immediate (contiguous) neighbors of the index herd, group 3 herds were not immediate neighbors but within 150 m and group 4 herds were between 150 m and 500 m distance from the edge of any parcel of land of the index herd, respectively. We conducted a survival analysis (allowing multiple failures per herd) to compare the hazard of having a BTB episode in any of the four groups of exposed herds vs. the hazard in herds in the reference group. We controlled for other known risk factors as well taking into account a temporal component. Our analysis showed that the hazard ratio for the index herds (group 1) were non-significantly increased, indicating that there was no difference in the hazard of failing a BTB test (after the targeted badger removal was conducted) between index herds and reference herds. For the rest of the herds farther away from badger removal activities the hazards were lower than herds in areas not under badger removal. The hazard in the reference group decreased over the study period.

Temperature-related risk factors associated with the colonization of broiler-chicken flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2001-2004.

Our objective was to identify temperature-related risk factors associated with the colonization of broiler-chicken flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, with an underlying assumption that at minimum ambient temperatures, flies (Musca domestica) play a role in the epidemiology and seasonality of Campylobacter. At slaughter, pooled caecal samples were obtained from 792 flocks that hatched between March 15 and September 15 each year from 2001 to 2004, and cultured for Campylobacter. Daily temperature data (average, maximum and minimum temperatures) were obtained from the Icelandic Meteorological Office. We determined the closest weather station to each farm using ArcGIS 9. We then used logistic-regression models (with a random-effects term for farm) to examine associations between flock positivity and temperature-related predictors. The overall prevalence of Campylobacter was 27.4%, and the month with the highest prevalence (54.4%) was August. The final model included cumulative degree-days (CDD) above an average temperature of 4.4 degrees C and the presence of 1 or more days below a maximum temperature of 8.9 degrees C (threshold below which fly activity was expected to be substantially reduced and egg laying was not expected to occur) during the period 2-4 weeks (i.e. days 8-28) before slaughter. Below 79 CDD, the risk of flock Campylobacter colonization was generally low. Between 79 and 139 CDD, the risk increased gradually, but was lower for flocks raised during periods with 1 or more days <8.9 degrees C than flocks raised without days <8.9 degrees C. The risk increased sharply under conditions of high CDD (>139) and when the maximum temperature remained >8.9 degrees C during the period 2-4 weeks before slaughter.

Risk factors for disclosure of additional tuberculous cattle in attested-clear herds that had one animal with a confirmed lesion of tuberculosis at slaughter during 2003 in Ireland.

All the Irish cattle herds considered "clear" of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) having a single animal with a tuberculous lesion at slaughter during 2003 were identified. We performed a descriptive and logistic regression analysis to investigate whether selected risk factors had an association with the result of the herd test immediately after the tuberculous lesion was found ("Factory Lesion Test", FLT). At the FLT, only 19.7% (n=338) of these 1713 herds had 1 or more standard reactors. The lesioned animal was home-bred in 46% of the "source" herds; these herds had an increased risk (23.4%) of having at least 1 standard reactor animal relative to herds with a purchased-lesioned animal (16.6%) (RR=1.41). Our logistic models identified a number of important risk factors; two that appeared most important in predicting the FLT outcome were the time spent (residency) by the lesioned animal in the "source" herd, and the presence, or not, of the lesioned animal in a previous BTB episode in either the "source" herd, or the seller's herd in the case the lesioned animal was purchased. Our models fit the data well based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, however their sensitivity and specificity were very low (57% and 61% respectively). Surveillance of the cattle population for BTB using lesions found at slaughter is an essential component of an overall control program. Nonetheless, due to the poor predictability of the variables we measured, complete herd investigations are needed to help explain the FLT outcome of a herd.

Quantifying badger exposure and the risk of bovine tuberculosis for cattle herds in county Kilkenny, Ireland.

The objectives of the study were to quantify the levels of badger exposure for cattle and to test the hypothesis that increased badger exposure does not increase the risk of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in a herd. Information that became available from the targeted removal of badgers over the study period, and from a badger-removal project in county Kilkenny, during 1996-1999 was used. The specific location of cattle within each farm, and the length of time that cattle spent in each farm field during the grazing season, and in the barnyard during winter, was used to build an exposure coefficient to quantify the amount of badger exposure that cattle encountered either on pasture or in the barn. The study design was a matched case-control study in which the control herds were selected using incidence density sampling. During the 4-year study period, 543 badgers were removed and of these 96 badgers were classified as tuberculosis positive; 96 BTB herd breakdowns occurred. There was a significant association between case herds and having a higher badger sett exposure coefficient during 1996-1998. No significant association between case herds and having a higher exposure coefficient based on the number of badgers, or the number of tuberculous badgers, during September 1997-December 1999 was found.

Spatial relationship between Mycobacterium bovis strains in cattle and badgers in four areas in Ireland.

We investigated whether strains (restriction fragment length polymorphism, RFLP-types) of Mycobacterium bovis isolated from badgers and from cattle clustered among and within four areas in Ireland. The spatial scan test and nearest-neighbor analysis were used as the spatial cluster-detection techniques. In addition, for each of the major strains, associations between the distance to badger setts and the "centroid" of the cattle farm were assessed in a logistic model. Overall, between September 1997 and May 2000, 316 and 287 M. bovis samples, from badgers and cattle, respectively, were strain-typed. The distribution of strains in badgers, and separately in cattle, differed among areas. Within each of the four large areas, badgers and cattle tended to have similar strains; this is consistent with the sharing of M. bovis strains within an area. In more detailed within-area analyses, some spatial clusters of M. bovis strains were detected, separately, in both cattle and badgers. Almost half of the infected badger setts with a specific strain were located outside of the "detected" clusters. There was no association between the number of infected badgers with a specific M. bovis strain within 2 or 5 km distances to cattle herds, and the risk of the same strain in cattle. We speculate about the dynamic nature of badger movements, as an explanation for the absence of more clusters of most of the strains of M. bovis isolated from badgers, and its impact on trying to study transmission of M. bovis between cattle and badger.

Spatial relative risk mapping of pseudorabies-seropositive pig herds in an animal-dense region.

This paper describes a new approach for spatial relative risk mapping as a tool for geographical risk assessment. The spatial epidemiological analysis is based on geographically referenced data about pseudorabies (Aujeszky's disease) virus infections at farm level in a region of high animal density in Germany at the beginning of the national eradication project. On the basis of serological findings 186 farms were classified as positive out of a total of 482 investigated farms listed in veterinary administrative registers. Geographical cluster analysis was used to identify two areas of high risk (RR = 2.4 and 3.3). Non-parametric density estimation was used to estimate the proportion of infected farms per square kilometre. Furthermore, the spatial relative risk function was approximated through the prevalence ratio defined by the ratio of the local prevalence and the overall prevalence of the farms outside the cluster regions. The corresponding approximated relative risk map indicates and quantifies a clear spatial pattern of disease frequency.

Choropleth mapping of regional count data of Echinococcus multilocularis among red foxes in Lower Saxony, Germany.

In this paper, choropleth maps display the geographical distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis in red foxes in Lower Saxony. Areas of high prevalence of the infection in foxes and with high fox population density pose high risk for the human population for alveolar echinococcosis. Spatial statistical methods were used to analyse regional count data obtained from 5365 hunted or found-dead foxes. Spatial smoothing (of raw estimates of regional prevalences based on count data before mapping) was used because raw estimates can give an erratic impression of the spatial pattern of the infection. For smoothing, empirical Bayesian methods are used as an explorative spatial epidemiological tool. The resulting map showed the geographical variation of the estimated prevalences around a median at 9% and indicated the presence of spatial-trend effects. Based on this finding, conditional autoregressive spatial modelling for Freeman-Tukey transformed data was used as an inferential spatial epidemiological tool. There were significant additive linear and quadratic spatial-trend effects with elevated prevalences in the north and south and extreme values (prevalences>38%) for the south of Lower Saxony.