Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years.

A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting past climate change and for predicting future climate change. A recent synthesis suggests that the increase in global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5 and 6.2 degrees C (5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is inconsistent with this range. Moreover, most estimates of climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events and may not be applicable to climate change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-million-year timescales. We conclude that a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 degrees C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling.

Confirmation of Romer's Gap as a low oxygen interval constraining the timing of initial arthropod and vertebrate terrestrialization.

The first terrestrialization of species that evolved from previously aquatic taxa was a seminal event in evolutionary history. For vertebrates, one of the most important terrestrialized groups, this event was interrupted by a time interval known as Romer's Gap, for which, until recently, few fossils were known. Here, we argue that geochronologic range data of terrestrial arthropods show a pattern similar to that of vertebrates. Thus, Romer's Gap is real, occupied an interval from 360 million years before present (MYBP) to 345 MYBP, and occurred when environmental conditions were unfavorable for air-breathing, terrestrial animals. These model results suggest that atmospheric oxygen levels were the major driver of successful terrestrialization, and a low-oxygen interval accounts for Romer's Gap. Results also show that terrestrialization among members of arthropod and vertebrate clades occurred in two distinct phases. The first phase was a 65-million-year (My) interval from 425 to 360 MYBP, representing an earlier, prolonged event of complete arthropod terrestrialization of smaller-sized forms (425-385 MYBP) and a subsequent, modest, and briefer event of incipient terrestrialization of larger-sized, aquatic vertebrates (385-360 MYBP). The second phase began at 345 MYBP, characterized by numerous new terrestrial species emerging in both major clades. The first and second terrestrialization phases bracket Romer's Gap, which represents a depauperate spectrum of major arthropod and vertebrate taxa before a major Late Paleozoic colonization of terrestrial habitats.

The rise of oxygen over the past 205 million years and the evolution of large placental mammals.

On the basis of a carbon isotopic record of both marine carbonates and organic matter from the Triassic-Jurassic boundary to the present, we modeled oxygen concentrations over the past 205 million years. Our analysis indicates that atmospheric oxygen approximately doubled over this period, with relatively rapid increases in the early Jurassic and the Eocene. We suggest that the overall increase in oxygen, mediated by the formation of passive continental margins along the Atlantic Ocean during the opening phase of the current Wilson cycle, was a critical factor in the evolution, radiation, and subsequent increase in average size of placental mammals.

Feedbacks and the coevolution of plants and atmospheric CO2.

The coupled evolution of land plants, CO2, and climate over the last half billion years has maintained atmospheric CO2 concentrations within finite limits, indicating the involvement of a complex network of geophysiological feedbacks. But insight into this important regulatory network is extremely limited. Here we present a systems analysis of the physiological and geochemical processes involved, identifying new positive and negative feedbacks between plants and CO2 on geological time scales. Positive feedbacks accelerated falling CO2 concentrations during the evolution and diversification of terrestrial ecosystems in the Paleozoic and enhanced rising CO2 concentrations across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary during flood basalt eruptions. The existence of positive feedbacks reveals the unexpected destabilizing influence of the biota in climate regulation that led to environmental modifications accelerating rates of terrestrial plant and animal evolution in the Paleozoic.

The long-term carbon cycle, fossil fuels and atmospheric composition.

The long-term carbon cycle operates over millions of years and involves the exchange of carbon between rocks and the Earth's surface. There are many complex feedback pathways between carbon burial, nutrient cycling, atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen, and climate. New calculations of carbon fluxes during the Phanerozoic eon (the past 550 million years) illustrate how the long-term carbon cycle has affected the burial of organic matter and fossil-fuel formation, as well as the evolution of atmospheric composition.

Examination of hypotheses for the Permo-Triassic boundary extinction by carbon cycle modeling.

The biological extinction that occurred at the Permian-Triassic boundary represents the most extensive loss of species of any known event of the past 550 million years. There have been a wide variety of explanations offered for this extinction. In the present paper, a number of the more popular recent hypotheses are evaluated in terms of predictions that they make, or that they imply, concerning the global carbon cycle. For this purpose, a mass balance model is used that calculates atmospheric CO2 and oceanic delta13C as a function of time. Hypotheses considered include: (i) the release of massive amounts of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in mass poisoning; (ii) the release of large amounts of CO2 from volcanic degassing; (iii) the release of methane stored in methane hydrates; (iv) the decomposition and oxidation of dead organisms to CO2 after sudden mass mortality; and (v) the long-term reorganization of the global carbon cycle. The modeling indicates that measured short-term changes in delta13C at the boundary are best explained by methane release with mass mortality and volcanic degassing contributing in secondary roles. None of the processes result in excessively high levels of atmospheric CO2 if they occurred on time scales of more than about 1,000 years. The idea of poisoning by high levels of atmospheric CO2 depends on the absence of subthermocline calcium carbonate deposition during the latest Permian. The most far-reaching effect was found to be reorganization of the carbon cycle with major sedimentary burial of organic matter shifting from the land to the sea, resulting in less burial overall, decreased atmospheric O2, and higher atmospheric CO2 for the entire Triassic Period.