Hydrologic resilience and Amazon productivity.

The Amazon rainforest is disproportionately important for global carbon storage and biodiversity. The system couples the atmosphere and land, with moist forest that depends on convection to sustain gross primary productivity and growth. Earth system models that estimate future climate and vegetation show little agreement in Amazon simulations. Here we show that biases in internally generated climate, primarily precipitation, explain most of the uncertainty in Earth system model results; models, empirical data and theory converge when precipitation biases are accounted for. Gross primary productivity, above-ground biomass and tree cover align on a hydrological relationship with a breakpoint at ~2000 mm annual precipitation, where the system transitions between water and radiation limitation of evapotranspiration. The breakpoint appears to be fairly stable in the future, suggesting resilience of the Amazon to climate change. Changes in precipitation and land use are therefore more likely to govern biomass and vegetation structure in Amazonia.Earth system model simulations of future climate in the Amazon show little agreement. Here, the authors show that biases in internally generated climate explain most of this uncertainty and that the balance between water-saturated and water-limited evapotranspiration controls the Amazon resilience to climate change.

Forest productivity and water stress in Amazonia: observations from GOSAT chlorophyll fluorescence.

It is unclear to what extent seasonal water stress impacts on plant productivity over Amazonia. Using new Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) satellite measurements of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, we show that midday fluorescence varies with water availability, both of which decrease in the dry season over Amazonian regions with substantial dry season length, suggesting a parallel decrease in gross primary production (GPP). Using additional SeaWinds Scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT satellite measurements of canopy water content, we found a concomitant decrease in daily storage of canopy water content within branches and leaves during the dry season, supporting our conclusion. A large part (r(2) = 0.75) of the variance in observed monthly midday fluorescence from GOSAT is explained by water stress over moderately stressed evergreen forests over Amazonia, which is reproduced by model simulations that include a full physiological representation of photosynthesis and fluorescence. The strong relationship between GOSAT and model fluorescence (r(2) = 0.79) was obtained using a fixed leaf area index, indicating that GPP changes are more related to environmental conditions than chlorophyll contents. When the dry season extended to drought in 2010 over Amazonia, midday basin-wide GPP was reduced by 15 per cent compared with 2009.