Towards Inferring Network Properties from Epidemic Data.

Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional mass-action models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using mean-field models, such as the pairwise model (PWM), the high-dimensionality becomes tractable. While such models have been used extensively for model analysis, there is limited work in the context of statistical inference. In this paper, we explore the extent to which the PWM with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic can be used to infer disease- and network-related parameters. Data from an epidemics can be loosely categorised as being population level, e.g., daily new cases, or individual level, e.g., recovery times. To understand if and how network inference is influenced by the type of data, we employed the widely-used MLE approach for population-level data and dynamical survival analysis (DSA) for individual-level data. For scenarios in which there is no model mismatch, such as when data are generated via simulations, both methods perform well despite strong dependence between parameters. In contrast, for real-world data, such as foot-and-mouth, H1N1 and COVID19, whereas the DSA method appears fairly robust to potential model mismatch and produces parameter estimates that are epidemiologically plausible, our results with the MLE method revealed several issues pertaining to parameter unidentifiability and a lack of robustness to exact knowledge about key quantities such as population size and/or proportion of under reporting. Taken together, however, our findings suggest that network-based mean-field models can be used to formulate approximate likelihoods which, coupled with an efficient inference scheme, make it possible to not only learn about the parameters of the disease dynamics but also that of the underlying network.

The Impact of Contact Structure and Mixing on Control Measures and Disease-Induced Herd Immunity in Epidemic Models: A Mean-Field Model Perspective.

The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many 'structured models' capture aspects of the contact pattern through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in unstructured models of a disease that confers immunity is that once a fraction [Formula: see text] has been infected, the residual susceptible population can no longer sustain an epidemic. A recent observation of some structured models is that this threshold can be crossed with a smaller fraction of infected individuals, because the disease acts like a targeted vaccine, preferentially immunising higher-risk individuals who play a greater role in transmission. Therefore, a limited 'first wave' may leave behind a residual population that cannot support a second wave once interventions are lifted. In this paper, we set out to investigate this more systematically. While networks offer a flexible framework to model contact patterns explicitly, they suffer from several shortcomings: (i) high-fidelity network models require a large amount of data which can be difficult to harvest, and (ii) very few, if any, theoretical contact network models offer the flexibility to tune different contact network properties within the same framework. Therefore, we opt to systematically analyse a number of well-known mean-field models. These are computationally efficient and provide good flexibility in varying contact network properties such as heterogeneity in the number contacts, clustering and household structure or differentiating between local and global contacts. In particular, we consider the question of herd immunity under several scenarios. When modelling interventions as changes in transmission rates, we confirm that in networks with significant degree heterogeneity, the first wave of the epidemic confers herd immunity with significantly fewer infections than equivalent models with less or no degree heterogeneity. However, if modelling the intervention as a change in the contact network, then this effect may become much more subtle. Indeed, modifying the structure disproportionately can shield highly connected nodes from becoming infected during the first wave and therefore make the second wave more substantial. We strengthen this finding by using an age-structured compartmental model parameterised with real data and comparing lockdown periods implemented either as a global scaling of the mixing matrix or age-specific structural changes. Overall, we find that results regarding (disease-induced) herd immunity levels are strongly dependent on the model, the duration of the lockdown and how the lockdown is implemented in the model.

Inference of brain networks with approximate Bayesian computation - assessing face validity with an example application in Parkinsonism.

This paper describes and validates a novel framework using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm for parameter estimation and model selection in models of mesoscale brain network activity. We provide a proof of principle, first pass validation of this framework using a set of neural mass models of the cortico-basal ganglia thalamic circuit inverted upon spectral features from experimental, in vivo recordings. This optimization scheme relaxes an assumption of fixed-form posteriors (i.e. the Laplace approximation) taken in previous approaches to inverse modelling of spectral features. This enables the exploration of model dynamics beyond that approximated from local linearity assumptions and so fit to explicit, numerical solutions of the underlying non-linear system of equations. In this first paper, we establish a face validation of the optimization procedures in terms of: (i) the ability to approximate posterior densities over parameters that are plausible given the known causes of the data; (ii) the ability of the model comparison procedures to yield posterior model probabilities that can identify the model structure known to generate the data; and (iii) the robustness of these procedures to local minima in the face of different starting conditions. Finally, as an illustrative application we show (iv) that model comparison can yield plausible conclusions given the known neurobiology of the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic circuit in Parkinsonism. These results lay the groundwork for future studies utilizing highly nonlinear or brittle models that can explain time dependant dynamics, such as oscillatory bursts, in terms of the underlying neural circuits.

Temporal ordering of input modulates connectivity formation in a developmental neuronal network model of the cortex.

Preterm infant brain activity is discontinuous; bursts of activity recorded using EEG (electroencephalography), thought to be driven by subcortical regions, display scale free properties and exhibit a complex temporal ordering known as long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs). During brain development, activity-dependent mechanisms are essential for synaptic connectivity formation, and abolishing burst activity in animal models leads to weak disorganised synaptic connectivity. Moreover, synaptic pruning shares similar mechanisms to spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP), suggesting that the timing of activity may play a critical role in connectivity formation. We investigated, in a computational model of leaky integrate-and-fire neurones, whether the temporal ordering of burst activity within an external driving input could modulate connectivity formation in the network. Connectivity evolved across the course of simulations using an approach analogous to STDP, from networks with initial random connectivity. Small-world connectivity and hub neurones emerged in the network structure-characteristic properties of mature brain networks. Notably, driving the network with an external input which exhibited LRTCs in the temporal ordering of burst activity facilitated the emergence of these network properties, increasing the speed with which they emerged compared with when the network was driven by the same input with the bursts randomly ordered in time. Moreover, the emergence of small-world properties was dependent on the strength of the LRTCs. These results suggest that the temporal ordering of burst activity could play an important role in synaptic connectivity formation and the emergence of small-world topology in the developing brain.

Epidemic threshold in pairwise models for clustered networks: closures and fast correlations.

The epidemic threshold is probably the most studied quantity in the modelling of epidemics on networks. For a large class of networks and dynamics, it is well studied and understood. However, it is less so for clustered networks where theoretical results are mostly limited to idealised networks. In this paper we focus on a class of models known as pairwise models where, to our knowledge, no analytical result for the epidemic threshold exists. We show that by exploiting the presence of fast variables and using some standard techniques from perturbation theory we are able to obtain the epidemic threshold analytically. We validate this new threshold by comparing it to the threshold based on the numerical solution of the full system. The agreement is found to be excellent over a wide range of values of the clustering coefficient, transmission rate and average degree of the network. Interestingly, we find that the analytical form of the threshold depends on the choice of closure, highlighting the importance of model selection when dealing with real-world epidemics. Nevertheless, we expect that our method will extend to other systems in which fast variables are present.

Edge-Based Compartmental Modelling of an SIR Epidemic on a Dual-Layer Static-Dynamic Multiplex Network with Tunable Clustering.

The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a dual-layer static-dynamic multiplex network. The static network layer affords tunable clustering and describes an individual's permanent community structure. The dynamic network layer describes the transient connections an individual makes with members of the wider population by imposing constant edge rewiring. We follow the edge-based compartmental modelling approach to derive equations describing the evolution of a susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic spreading through this multiplex network of individuals. We derive the basic reproduction number, measuring the expected number of new infectious cases caused by a single infectious individual in an otherwise susceptible population. We validate model equations by showing convergence to pre-existing edge-based compartmental model equations in limiting cases and by comparison with stochastically simulated epidemics. We explore the effects of altering model parameters and multiplex network attributes on resultant epidemic dynamics. We validate the basic reproduction number by plotting its value against associated final epidemic sizes measured from simulation and predicted by model equations for a number of set-ups. Further, we explore the effect of varying individual model parameters on the basic reproduction number. We conclude with a discussion of the significance and interpretation of the model and its relation to existing research literature. We highlight intrinsic limitations and potential extensions of the present model and outline future research considerations, both experimental and theoretical.

Propagation of beta/gamma rhythms in the cortico-basal ganglia circuits of the parkinsonian rat.

Much of the motor impairment associated with Parkinson's disease is thought to arise from pathological activity in the networks formed by the basal ganglia (BG) and motor cortex. To evaluate several hypotheses proposed to explain the emergence of pathological oscillations in parkinsonism, we investigated changes to the directed connectivity in BG networks following dopamine depletion. We recorded local field potentials (LFPs) in the cortex and basal ganglia of rats rendered parkinsonian by injection of 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) and in dopamine-intact controls. We performed systematic analyses of the networks using a novel tool for estimation of directed interactions (nonparametric directionality, NPD). We used a "conditioned" version of the NPD analysis that reveals the dependence of the correlation between two signals on a third reference signal. We find evidence of the dopamine dependency of both low-beta (14-20 Hz) and high-beta/low-gamma (20-40 Hz) directed network interactions. Notably, 6-OHDA lesions were associated with enhancement of the cortical "hyperdirect" connection to the subthalamic nucleus (STN) and its feedback to the cortex and striatum. We find that pathological beta synchronization resulting from 6-OHDA lesioning is widely distributed across the network and cannot be located to any individual structure. Furthermore, we provide evidence that high-beta/gamma oscillations propagate through the striatum in a pathway that is independent of STN. Rhythms at high beta/gamma show susceptibility to conditioning that indicates a hierarchical organization compared with those at low beta. These results further inform our understanding of the substrates for pathological rhythms in salient brain networks in parkinsonism. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We present a novel analysis of electrophysiological recordings in the cortico-basal ganglia network with the aim of evaluating several hypotheses concerning the origins of abnormal brain rhythms associated with Parkinson's disease. We present evidence for changes in the directed connections within the network following chronic dopamine depletion in rodents. These findings speak to the plausibility of a "short-circuiting" of the network that gives rise to the conditions from which pathological synchronization may arise.

Relating Vertex and Global Graph Entropy in Randomly Generated Graphs.

Combinatoric measures of entropy capture the complexity of a graph but rely upon the calculation of its independent sets, or collections of non-adjacent vertices. This decomposition of the vertex set is a known NP-Complete problem and for most real world graphs is an inaccessible calculation. Recent work by Dehmer et al. and Tee et al. identified a number of vertex level measures that do not suffer from this pathological computational complexity, but that can be shown to be effective at quantifying graph complexity. In this paper, we consider whether these local measures are fundamentally equivalent to global entropy measures. Specifically, we investigate the existence of a correlation between vertex level and global measures of entropy for a narrow subset of random graphs. We use the greedy algorithm approximation for calculating the chromatic information and therefore Körner entropy. We are able to demonstrate strong correlation for this subset of graphs and outline how this may arise theoretically.

The Parkinsonian Subthalamic Network: Measures of Power, Linear, and Non-linear Synchronization and their Relationship to L-DOPA Treatment and OFF State Motor Severity.

In this paper we investigated the dopaminergic modulation of neuronal interactions occurring in the subthalamic nucleus (STN) during Parkinson's disease (PD). We utilized linear measures of local and long range synchrony such as power and coherence, as well as Detrended Fluctuation Analysis for Phase Synchrony (DFA-PS)- a recently developed non-linear method that computes the extent of long tailed autocorrelations present in the phase interactions between two coupled signals. Through analysis of local field potentials (LFPs) taken from the STN we seek to determine changes in the neurodynamics that may underpin the pathophysiology of PD in a group of 12 patients who had undergone surgery for deep brain stimulation. We demonstrate up modulation of alpha-theta (5-12 Hz) band power in response to L-DOPA treatment, whilst low beta band power (15-20 Hz) band-power is suppressed. We also find evidence for significant local connectivity within the region surrounding STN although there was evidence for its modulation via administration of L-DOPA. Further to this we present evidence for a positive correlation between the phase ordering of bilateral STN interactions and the severity of bradykinetic and rigidity symptoms in PD. Although, the ability of non-linear measures to predict clinical state did not exceed standard measures such as beta power, these measures may help identify the connections which play a role in pathological dynamics.

Beyond clustering: mean-field dynamics on networks with arbitrary subgraph composition.

Clustering is the propensity of nodes that share a common neighbour to be connected. It is ubiquitous in many networks but poses many modelling challenges. Clustering typically manifests itself by a higher than expected frequency of triangles, and this has led to the principle of constructing networks from such building blocks. This approach has been generalised to networks being constructed from a set of more exotic subgraphs. As long as these are fully connected, it is then possible to derive mean-field models that approximate epidemic dynamics well. However, there are virtually no results for non-fully connected subgraphs. In this paper, we provide a general and automated approach to deriving a set of ordinary differential equations, or mean-field model, that describes, to a high degree of accuracy, the expected values of system-level quantities, such as the prevalence of infection. Our approach offers a previously unattainable degree of control over the arrangement of subgraphs and network characteristics such as classical node degree, variance and clustering. The combination of these features makes it possible to generate families of networks with different subgraph compositions while keeping classical network metrics constant. Using our approach, we show that higher-order structure realised either through the introduction of loops of different sizes or by generating networks based on different subgraphs but with identical degree distribution and clustering, leads to non-negligible differences in epidemic dynamics.

Oscillating epidemics in a dynamic network model: stochastic and mean-field analysis.

An adaptive network model using SIS epidemic propagation with link-type-dependent link activation and deletion is considered. Bifurcation analysis of the pairwise ODE approximation and the network-based stochastic simulation is carried out, showing that three typical behaviours may occur; namely, oscillations can be observed besides disease-free or endemic steady states. The oscillatory behaviour in the stochastic simulations is studied using Fourier analysis, as well as through analysing the exact master equations of the stochastic model. By going beyond simply comparing simulation results to mean-field models, our approach yields deeper insights into the observed phenomena and help better understand and map out the limitations of mean-field models.

Resting state MEG oscillations show long-range temporal correlations of phase synchrony that break down during finger movement.

The capacity of the human brain to interpret and respond to multiple temporal scales in its surroundings suggests that its internal interactions must also be able to operate over a broad temporal range. In this paper, we utilize a recently introduced method for characterizing the rate of change of the phase difference between MEG signals and use it to study the temporal structure of the phase interactions between MEG recordings from the left and right motor cortices during rest and during a finger-tapping task. We use the Hilbert transform to estimate moment-to-moment fluctuations of the phase difference between signals. After confirming the presence of scale-invariance we estimate the Hurst exponent using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). An exponent of >0.5 is indicative of long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs) in the signal. We find that LRTCs are present in the α/µ and ß frequency bands of resting state MEG data. We demonstrate that finger movement disrupts LRTCs correlations, producing a phase relationship with a structure similar to that of Gaussian white noise. The results are validated by applying the same analysis to data with Gaussian white noise phase difference, recordings from an empty scanner and phase-shuffled time series. We interpret the findings through comparison of the results with those we obtained from an earlier study during which we adopted this method to characterize phase relationships within a Kuramoto model of oscillators in its sub-critical, critical, and super-critical synchronization states. We find that the resting state MEG from left and right motor cortices shows moment-to-moment fluctuations of phase difference with a similar temporal structure to that of a system of Kuramoto oscillators just prior to its critical level of coupling, and that finger tapping moves the system away from this pre-critical state toward a more random state.

Markers of criticality in phase synchronization.

The concept of the brain as a critical dynamical system is very attractive because systems close to criticality are thought to maximize their dynamic range of information processing and communication. To date, there have been two key experimental observations in support of this hypothesis: (i) neuronal avalanches with power law distribution of size and (ii) long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs) in the amplitude of neural oscillations. The case for how these maximize dynamic range of information processing and communication is still being made and because a significant substrate for information coding and transmission is neural synchrony it is of interest to link synchronization measures with those of criticality. We propose a framework for characterizing criticality in synchronization based on an analysis of the moment-to-moment fluctuations of phase synchrony in terms of the presence of LRTCs. This framework relies on an estimation of the rate of change of phase difference and a set of methods we have developed to detect LRTCs. We test this framework against two classical models of criticality (Ising and Kuramoto) and recently described variants of these models aimed to more closely represent human brain dynamics. From these simulations we determine the parameters at which these systems show evidence of LRTCs in phase synchronization. We demonstrate proof of principle by analysing pairs of human simultaneous EEG and EMG time series, suggesting that LRTCs of corticomuscular phase synchronization can be detected in the resting state and experimentally manipulated. The existence of LRTCs in fluctuations of phase synchronization suggests that these fluctuations are governed by non-local behavior, with all scales contributing to system behavior. This has important implications regarding the conditions under which one should expect to see LRTCs in phase synchronization. Specifically, brain resting states may exhibit LRTCs reflecting a state of readiness facilitating rapid task-dependent shifts toward and away from synchronous states that abolish LRTCs.

Identification of Criticality in Neuronal Avalanches: II. A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Driven Case.

The observation of apparent power laws in neuronal systems has led to the suggestion that the brain is at, or close to, a critical state and may be a self-organised critical system. Within the framework of self-organised criticality a separation of timescales is thought to be crucial for the observation of power-law dynamics and computational models are often constructed with this property. However, this is not necessarily a characteristic of physiological neural networks-external input does not only occur when the network is at rest/a steady state. In this paper we study a simple neuronal network model driven by a continuous external input (i.e. the model does not have an explicit separation of timescales from seeding the system only when in the quiescent state) and analytically tuned to operate in the region of a critical state (it reaches the critical regime exactly in the absence of input-the case studied in the companion paper to this article). The system displays avalanche dynamics in the form of cascades of neuronal firing separated by periods of silence. We observe partial scale-free behaviour in the distribution of avalanche size for low levels of external input. We analytically derive the distributions of waiting times and investigate their temporal behaviour in relation to different levels of external input, showing that the system's dynamics can exhibit partial long-range temporal correlations. We further show that as the system approaches the critical state by two alternative 'routes', different markers of criticality (partial scale-free behaviour and long-range temporal correlations) are displayed. This suggests that signatures of criticality exhibited by a particular system in close proximity to a critical state are dependent on the region in parameter space at which the system (currently) resides.

Higher-order structure and epidemic dynamics in clustered networks.

Clustering is typically measured by the ratio of triangles to all triples regardless of whether open or closed. Generating clustered networks, and how clustering affects dynamics on networks, is reasonably well understood for certain classes of networks (Volz et al., 2011; Karrer and Newman, 2010), e.g. networks composed of lines and non-overlapping triangles. In this paper we show that it is possible to generate networks which, despite having the same degree distribution and equal clustering, exhibit different higher-order structure, specifically, overlapping triangles and other order-four (a closed network motif composed of four nodes) structures. To distinguish and quantify these additional structural features, we develop a new network metric capable of measuring order-four structure which, when used alongside traditional network metrics, allows us to more accurately describe a network׳s topology. Three network generation algorithms are considered: a modified configuration model and two rewiring algorithms. By generating homogeneous networks with equal clustering we study and quantify their structural differences, and using SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) and SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) dynamics we investigate computationally how differences in higher-order structure impact on epidemic threshold, final epidemic or prevalence levels and time evolution of epidemics. Our results suggest that characterising and measuring higher-order network structure is needed to advance our understanding of the impact of network topology on dynamics unfolding on the networks.

Rectification of EMG in low force contractions improves detection of motor unit coherence in the beta-frequency band.

Rectification of surface EMG before spectral analysis is a well-established preprocessing method used in the detection of motor unit firing patterns. A number of recent studies have called into question the need for rectification before spectral analysis, pointing out that there is no supporting experimental evidence to justify rectification. We present an analysis of 190 records from 13 subjects consisting of simultaneous recordings of paired single motor units and surface EMG from the extensor digitorum longus muscle during middle finger extension against gravity (unloaded condition) and against gravity plus inertial loading (loaded condition). We directly examine the hypothesis that rectified surface EMG is a better predictor of the frequency components of motor unit synchronization than the unrectified (or raw) EMG in the beta-frequency band (15-32 Hz). We use multivariate analysis and estimate the partial coherence between the paired single units using both rectified and unrectified surface EMG as a predictor. We use a residual partial correlation measure to quantify the difference between raw and rectified EMG as predictor and analyze unloaded and loaded conditions separately. The residual correlation for the unloaded condition is 22% with raw EMG and 3.5% with rectified EMG and for the loaded condition it is 5.2% with raw EMG and 1.4% with rectified EMG. We interpret these results as strong supporting experimental evidence in favor of using the preprocessing step of surface EMG rectification before spectral analysis.

Identification of Criticality in Neuronal Avalanches: I. A Theoretical Investigation of the Non-driven Case.

In this paper, we study a simple model of a purely excitatory neural network that, by construction, operates at a critical point. This model allows us to consider various markers of criticality and illustrate how they should perform in a finite-size system. By calculating the exact distribution of avalanche sizes, we are able to show that, over a limited range of avalanche sizes which we precisely identify, the distribution has scale free properties but is not a power law. This suggests that it would be inappropriate to dismiss a system as not being critical purely based on an inability to rigorously fit a power law distribution as has been recently advocated. In assessing whether a system, especially a finite-size one, is critical it is thus important to consider other possible markers. We illustrate one of these by showing the divergence of susceptibility as the critical point of the system is approached. Finally, we provide evidence that power laws may underlie other observables of the system that may be more amenable to robust experimental assessment.

Adaptive time-varying detrended fluctuation analysis.

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a technique commonly used to assess and quantify the presence of long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs) in neurophysiological time series. Convergence of the method is asymptotic only and therefore its application assumes a constant scaling exponent. However, most neurophysiological data are likely to involve either spontaneous or experimentally induced scaling exponent changes. We present a novel extension of the DFA method that permits the characterisation of time-varying scaling exponents. The effectiveness of the methodology in recovering known changes in scaling exponents is demonstrated through its application to synthetic data. The dependence of the method on its free parameters is systematically explored. Finally, application of the methodology to neurophysiological data demonstrates that it provides experimenters with a way to identify previously un-recognised changes in the scaling exponent in the data. We suggest that this methodology will make it possible to go beyond a simple demonstration of the presence of scaling to an appreciation of how it may vary in response to either intrinsic changes or experimental perturbations.

Long-range temporal correlations in the EEG bursts of human preterm babies.

The electrical activity in the very early human preterm brain, as recorded by scalp EEG, is mostly discontinuous and has bursts of high-frequency oscillatory activity nested within slow-wave depolarisations of high amplitude. The temporal organisation of the occurrence of these EEG bursts has not been previously investigated. We analysed the distribution of the EEG bursts in 11 very preterm (23-30 weeks gestational age) human babies through two estimates of the Hurst exponent. We found long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs) in the occurrence of these EEG bursts demonstrating that even in the very immature human brain, when the cerebral cortical structure is far from fully developed, there is non-trivial temporal structuring of electrical activity.

Design and validation of surface-marker clusters for the quantification of joint rotations in general movements in early infancy.

Lack of complexity in general movements in early infancy is an important marker of potential motor disorders of neurological origin, such as cerebral palsy. Quantitative approaches to characterising this complexity are hampered by experimental difficulties in recording from infants in their first few months of life. The aim of this study was to design and validate bespoke surface-marker clusters to facilitate data acquisition and enable full quantification of joint rotations. The clusters were validated by recording the controlled movements of a soft-body dummy doll simultaneously with an optical (Qualisys) and inertial (XSens) motion capture system. The angles estimated from the optical system were compared with those measured by the inertial system. We demonstrate that the surface-marker based approach compares well with the use of an inertial system to obtain "direct" readings of the rotations whilst alleviating the issues associated with the use of an optical motion capture system. We briefly report use of this technique in 1-5 month old infants. By enabling full quantification of joint rotation, use of the custom made markers could pave the way for early diagnosis of movement disorders.