Data-driven decision making for the screening of cognitive impairment in primary care: a machine learning approach using data from the ELSA-Brasil study.

The systematic assessment of cognitive performance of older people without cognitive complaints is controversial and unfeasible. Identifying individuals at higher risk of cognitive impairment could optimize resource allocation. We aimed to develop and test machine learning models to predict cognitive impairment using variables obtainable in primary care settings. In this cross-sectional study, we included 8,291 participants of the baseline assessment of the ELSA-Brasil study, who were aged between 50 and 74 years and were free of dementia. Cognitive performance was assessed with a neuropsychological battery and cognitive impairment was defined as global cognitive z-score below 2 standard deviations. Variables used as input to the prediction models included demographics, social determinants, clinical conditions, family history, lifestyle, and laboratory tests. We developed machine learning models using logistic regression, neural networks, and gradient boosted trees. Participants' mean age was 58.3±6.2 years, 55% were female. Cognitive impairment was present in 328 individuals (4%). Machine learning algorithms presented fair to good discrimination (areas under the ROC curve between 0.801 and 0.873). Extreme Gradient Boosting presented the highest discrimination, high specificity (97%), and negative predictive value (97%). Seventy-six percent of the individuals with cognitive impairment were included among the highest ranked individuals by this algorithm. In conclusion, we developed and tested a machine learning model to predict cognitive impairment based on primary care data that presented good discrimination and high specificity. These characteristics could support the detection of patients who would not benefit from cognitive assessment, facilitating the allocation of human and economic resources.

Data-driven decision making for the screening of cognitive impairment in primary care: a machine learning approach using data from the ELSA-Brasil study

The systematic assessment of cognitive performance of older people without cognitive complaints is controversial and unfeasible. Identifying individuals at higher risk of cognitive impairment could optimize resource allocation. We aimed to develop and test machine learning models to predict cognitive impairment using variables obtainable in primary care settings. In this cross-sectional study, we included 8,291 participants of the baseline assessment of the ELSA-Brasil study, who were aged between 50 and 74 years and were free of dementia. Cognitive performance was assessed with a neuropsychological battery and cognitive impairment was defined as global cognitive z-score below 2 standard deviations. Variables used as input to the prediction models included demographics, social determinants, clinical conditions, family history, lifestyle, and laboratory tests. We developed machine learning models using logistic regression, neural networks, and gradient boosted trees. Participants' mean age was 58.3±6.2 years, 55% were female. Cognitive impairment was present in 328 individuals (4%). Machine learning algorithms presented fair to good discrimination (areas under the ROC curve between 0.801 and 0.873). Extreme Gradient Boosting presented the highest discrimination, high specificity (97%), and negative predictive value (97%). Seventy-six percent of the individuals with cognitive impairment were included among the highest ranked individuals by this algorithm. In conclusion, we developed and tested a machine learning model to predict cognitive impairment based on primary care data that presented good discrimination and high specificity. These characteristics could support the detection of patients who would not benefit from cognitive assessment, facilitating the allocation of human and economic resources.

Whole genome sequencing and the application of a SNP panel reveal primary evolutionary lineages and genomic variation in the lion (Panthera leo).

BACKGROUND: Previous phylogeographic studies of the lion (Panthera leo) have improved our insight into the distribution of genetic variation, as well as a revised taxonomy which now recognizes a northern (Panthera leo leo) and a southern (Panthera leo melanochaita) subspecies. However, existing whole range phylogeographic studies on lions either consist of very limited numbers of samples, or are focused on mitochondrial DNA and/or a limited set of microsatellites. The geographic extent of genetic lineages and their phylogenetic relationships remain uncertain, clouded by massive sampling gaps, sex-biased dispersal and incomplete lineage sorting. RESULTS: In this study we present results of low depth whole genome sequencing and subsequent variant calling in ten lions sampled throughout the geographic range, resulting in the discovery of >150,000 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). Phylogenetic analyses revealed the same basal split between northern and southern populations, as well as four population clusters on a more local scale. Further, we designed a SNP panel, including 125 autosomal and 14 mitochondrial SNPs, which was tested on >200 lions from across their range. Results allow us to assign individuals to one of these four major clades (West & Central Africa, India, East Africa, or Southern Africa) and delineate these clades in more detail. CONCLUSIONS: The results presented here, particularly the validated SNP panel, have important applications, not only for studying populations on a local geographic scale, but also for tracing samples of unknown origin for forensic purposes, and for guiding conservation management of ex situ populations. Thus, these genomic resources not only contribute to our understanding of the evolutionary history of the lion, but may also play a crucial role in conservation efforts aimed at protecting the species in its full diversity.

Ideal vascular health and cognitive performance in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Most evidence for the association between ideal vascular health (IVH) and cognitive performance comes from high income countries. The aim was to investigate this association in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health. METHODS: Cognition was assessed using the word list, verbal fluency and trail making tests. The IVH score included ideal metrics for body mass index, smoking, physical activity, diet, blood pressure, fasting glucose and total cholesterol. Poor, intermediate and optimal health were characterized in those presenting 0-2, 3-4, 5-7 ideal metrics, respectively. To determine the association between IVH score and cognitive performance, linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, race, alcohol use, depression and thyroid function were used. RESULTS: In 12 271 participants, the mean age was 51.3 ± 8.9 years, 54% were women, 57% White and 53% had poor vascular health. Participants with intermediate (ß = 0.064, 95% confidence interval 0.033; 0.096) and optimal health (ß = 0.108, 95% confidence interval 0.052; 0.164) had better global cognitive Z-scores. In addition, interactions of IVH score with age, education and race were found, suggesting a better cognitive performance with higher IVH in older adults, Black/Brown participants and those with lower levels of education. CONCLUSION: Ideal vascular health was associated with better cognitive performance. Older, Black/Brown and low-educated participants had better cognition in the presence of higher IVH scores.

Association between cognitive performance and self-reported glaucoma in middle-aged and older adults: a cross-sectional analysis of ELSA-Brasil.

Recent evidence suggests that glaucoma and Alzheimer's disease are neurodegenerative diseases sharing common pathophysiological and etiological features, although findings are inconclusive. We sought to investigate whether self-reported glaucoma patients without dementia present poorer cognitive performance, an issue that has been less investigated. We employed cross-sectional data from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) and included participants ≥50 years of age without a known diagnosis of dementia and a self-reported glaucoma diagnosis. We excluded those with previous stroke, other eye conditions, and using drugs that could impair cognition. We evaluated cognition using delayed word recall, phonemic verbal fluency, and trail making (version B) tests. We used multinomial linear regression models to investigate associations between self-reported glaucoma with cognition, adjusted by several sociodemographic and clinical variables. Out of 4,331 participants, 139 reported glaucoma. Fully-adjusted models showed that self-reported glaucoma patients presented poorer performance in the verbal fluency test (ß=-0.39, 95%CI=-0.64 to -0.14, P=0.002), but not in the other cognitive assessments. Thus, our results support the hypothesis that self-reported glaucoma is associated with poor cognitive performance; however, longitudinal data are necessary to corroborate our findings.

Association between cognitive performance and self-reported glaucoma in middle-aged and older adults: a cross-sectional analysis of ELSA-Brasil

Recent evidence suggests that glaucoma and Alzheimer's disease are neurodegenerative diseases sharing common pathophysiological and etiological features, although findings are inconclusive. We sought to investigate whether self-reported glaucoma patients without dementia present poorer cognitive performance, an issue that has been less investigated. We employed cross-sectional data from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) and included participants ≥50 years of age without a known diagnosis of dementia and a self-reported glaucoma diagnosis. We excluded those with previous stroke, other eye conditions, and using drugs that could impair cognition. We evaluated cognition using delayed word recall, phonemic verbal fluency, and trail making (version B) tests. We used multinomial linear regression models to investigate associations between self-reported glaucoma with cognition, adjusted by several sociodemographic and clinical variables. Out of 4,331 participants, 139 reported glaucoma. Fully-adjusted models showed that self-reported glaucoma patients presented poorer performance in the verbal fluency test (β=-0.39, 95%CI=-0.64 to -0.14, P=0.002), but not in the other cognitive assessments. Thus, our results support the hypothesis that self-reported glaucoma is associated with poor cognitive performance; however, longitudinal data are necessary to corroborate our findings.

Phylogeographic Patterns in Africa and High Resolution Delineation of Genetic Clades in the Lion (Panthera leo).

Comparative phylogeography of African savannah mammals shows a congruent pattern in which populations in West/Central Africa are distinct from populations in East/Southern Africa. However, for the lion, all African populations are currently classified as a single subspecies (Panthera leo leo), while the only remaining population in Asia is considered to be distinct (Panthera leo persica). This distinction is disputed both by morphological and genetic data. In this study we introduce the lion as a model for African phylogeography. Analyses of mtDNA sequences reveal six supported clades and a strongly supported ancestral dichotomy with northern populations (West Africa, Central Africa, North Africa/Asia) on one branch, and southern populations (North East Africa, East/Southern Africa and South West Africa) on the other. We review taxonomies and phylogenies of other large savannah mammals, illustrating that similar clades are found in other species. The described phylogeographic pattern is considered in relation to large scale environmental changes in Africa over the past 300,000 years, attributable to climate. Refugial areas, predicted by climate envelope models, further confirm the observed pattern. We support the revision of current lion taxonomy, as recognition of a northern and a southern subspecies is more parsimonious with the evolutionary history of the lion.

Role of EGFR family receptors in proliferation of squamous carcinoma cells induced by wound healing fluids of head and neck cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence suggests that recurrence of resected head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs) is due to the outgrowth of unrecognized residual tumor cells as well as to the premalignant and/or precursor-field epithelial cells. We studied the impact of processes triggered by HNSCC surgery in stimulating both residual tumor cells [demonstrated to overexpress epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)], and premalignant cells surrounding the resected lesion. PATIENTS AND METHODS: EGFR expression/activation by immunohistochemistry/biochemistry and gene status by FISH were investigated in 23 primary HNSCCs and surrounding tissues. The ability to induce cell proliferation of wound healing drainages collected from 12 relapsed and 11 not relapsed patients was evaluated by a colorimetric assay in squamous cell carcinoma cell lines A431 (carrying EGFR amplification) and CAL27 (carrying three EGFR copies) in the presence/absence of EGFR therapeutic inhibitors. RESULTS: Primary tumors showed intermediate/high EGFR expression (91%), EGFR phosphorylation and EGFR-positive FISH (35%). Normal, metaplastic and dysplastic epithelium surrounding the resected tumor displayed EGFR overexpression. EGFR activation and gene amplification were observed in normal and dysplastic epithelium, respectively. Each tested wound healing drainage induced the cells to proliferate and the proliferation was significantly higher in relapsed compared with not relapsed HNSCC patients (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03). Anti-EGFR treatments inhibited the drainage-induced proliferation, with the highest inhibitory efficiency by cetuximab on A431 cells, while CAL27 cell growth was more efficiently inhibited by tyrosine kinase inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Surgery could favor the proliferation of cells showing EGFR overexpression/activation/amplification such as residual tumor cells and/or precursor-field epithelial cells already present after surgery. Treatment with anti-EGFR reagents inhibits wound-induced stimulation, according to the EGFR family status.

Role of non-HLA genetic polymorphisms in graft-versus-host disease after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) is the main complication after haematopoietic stem cells transplantation (HSCT) and acute forms (aGvHD) occur in 20-40% of cases even after donor (D) and recipient (R) HLA matching, apparently because of D/R minor histocompatibility antigen (mHA) mismatches and cytokine polymorphisms. The genotype of cytokines and mHA of 77 haematological R following HSCT from HLA identical siblings were determined to detect genetic polymorphisms correlated with GvHD. We analysed TNFA (-863 C/A, -857 C/T and G/A at positions -574, -376, -308, -244, -238), IL-10 (-1082 G/A, -819 C/A, -592 C/T), IL-1B (T/C +3953), IL-1RA (VNTR), HA-1 (H/R allele) and CD-31 (C/G at codon 125, A/G at codon 563). Allele frequencies were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and similar to those of 77 healthy controls. We observed positive correlations between a lower risk of clinically significant aGvHD and both the presence of -1082G -819C -592C IL-10 haplotype when both R and D are considered together and the absence of R IL-1RA allele 2. Furthermore, we observed an association between the absence of TNF-A -238 A allele and the risk of extensive chronic GvHD. mHA and cytokines genotyping would thus seem a valid source of information for the prior identification of recipients with a higher risk of aGvHD.

Identification of a new HLA-DRB1 allele in three members of an Italian family.

Abstract A new human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1 allele, HLA-DRB1*1149, has been identified in three members of an Italian family during routine sequence based typing. This new allele differs from HLA-DRB1*110101 only for a single nucleotide substitution at position 113 of exon 2 resulting in an amino acid change from Valine (GTG) to Alanine (GCG) at codon 38.

New HLA-A*11 allele, A*1112, identified by sequence-based typing.

In this report, we describe the identification of HLA-A*1112, a novel HLA-A*11 allele found in two Italian families. The new allele was detected during routine HLA typing by a polymerase chain reaction sequence-specific primer and was confirmed by high-resolution sequencing-based typing. The nucleotide sequences of HLA-A*1112 exons 2 and 3 are identical to HLA-A*11011 except for a single nucleotide substitution in codon 90 (GAC-->GCC).

Polymorphisms in the promoter region and at codon 54 of the MBL2 gene are not associated with IgA nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) occurs sporadically in unrelated individuals. Several different polymorphic genes have been investigated in recent years in order to demonstrate their possible association with IgAN. Three recent, different studies with conflicting conclusions have discussed the role of the mannose binding lectin (MBL), a serum lectin involved in natural immunity, in the IgAN pathogenesis by examination of MBL deposits in biopsies. In the present study we investigated several polymorphisms of the MBL gene located in the promoter region and in the first exon. METHODS: MBL polymorphism detection was performed in 22 Italian patients with familial IgA nephropathy and in 138 Italian patients with the sporadic form of the disease. The polymorphisms in the MBL2 promoter region and in the exon 1 were investigated, respectively, by direct sequencing and by amplification refractory mutation system-polymerase chain reaction on genomic DNA collected from peripheral blood. Seventy-four unrelated healthy subjects matched for ethnic origin were used as controls. RESULTS: Allelic and genotypic frequencies of the polymorphisms at position -550, -328, -221 and at codon 54 did not show any differences between patients and controls. Similar frequency distributions of these polymorphisms were also found in the subgroups of IgAN patients subdivided according to the clinical manifestations and the progression of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the analysed polymorphisms of the MBL gene do not appear to be primarily involved in the susceptibility and severity of IgAN.

Analysis of the turin umbilical cord blood bank registry.

BACKGROUND: The polymorphic nature of the HLA system reduces a patient's probability of finding an HLA-compatible unrelated bone marrow (BM) donor, even though more than 6 million individuals are enrolled in international registries. Recently, umbilical cord blood (UCB) has been successfully employed as a source of HPCs. The use of such cells reduces the risk of GVHD and allows transplants with one or two HLA mismatches. UCB represents an expensive resource: therefore, it is necessary to carefully manage the UCB unit inventory. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The current study analyzed the genetic heterogeneity of HLA-A, -B, and -DR gene frequencies between pools of UCB and unrelated-donor BM in the Piedmont (an administrative region of Italy). An Italian hematology patient's probability of finding complete or partial matches as a function of donor pool size was determined by considering subsamples randomly selected from the local unrelated BM donors. RESULTS: The HLA gene frequencies in UCB and unrelated-donor BM pools were not significantly different. The search simulation, based on actual HLA phenotypes, showed that the percentage of Italian patients matched with an HPC unit increases remarkably if 1 or 2 mismatches are accepted, reaching a proportion of 90 percent with an inventory of only about 500 units, while the increment is not so remarkable if the number of UCB units is greater. CONCLUSION: To optimize economic resources and to be internationally competitive, UCB banks should aim to increase the genetic heterogeneity of their units rather than increasing the UCB inventory, acquire efficient quality control systems, and acquire and preserve UCB units with a greater number of nucleated cells.