Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period.

Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth's past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near-surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.

North Atlantic cooling triggered a zonal mode over the Indian Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1.

Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are thought to affect tropical hydroclimate through adjustment of the latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) involves the largest AMOC reduction in recent geological time; however, over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), proxy records suggest zonal anomalies featuring intense, widespread drought in tropical East Africa versus generally wet but heterogeneous conditions in the Maritime Continent. Here, we synthesize proxy data and an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation and show that the southward ITCZ shift over the eastern IO during HS1 strengthens IO Walker circulation, triggering an east-west precipitation dipole across the basin. This dipole reverses the zonal precipitation anomalies caused by the exposed Sunda and Sahul shelves due to glacial lower sea level. Our study illustrates how zonal modes of atmosphere-ocean circulation can amplify or reverse global climate anomalies, highlighting their importance for future climate change.

African Hydroclimate During the Early Eocene From the DeepMIP Simulations.

The early Eocene (∼56-48 Myr ago) is characterized by high CO2 estimates (1,200-2,500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10°C-16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g., Africa). Here, we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models in the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre-industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model- and geographically dependent, however, these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre-industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low-level circulation is replaced by increased south-westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model-data comparison using newly compiled quantitative climate estimates from paleobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.

Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks.

Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO2. Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO2 forcing.

International perspectives on procedural justice: Trust and respect matter even when body-worn cameras are present.

OBJECTIVE(S): We assessed the impact of body-worn cameras (BWCs) in two countries on perceptions of everyday encounters with police, independent of officer respectfulness and participants' preexisting trust in police. HYPOTHESES: We expected BWC presence, officer respectfulness, and preexisting trust in police to all significantly improve individuals' perceptions of a police encounter. We also expected interactions indicating that BWC presence and preexisting trust in police reduce the effect of officer respectfulness on perceptions of the encounter. METHOD: In each of three experimental studies, we measured participants' preexisting trust in police, and then presented participants with a vignette describing an encounter with a police officer in which officer respectfulness (respectful, disrespectful) and the presence/disclosure of a BWC (absent, present and disclosed by officer, present but undisclosed by officer) were independently manipulated. In Studies 1 (N = 422, Mage = 29 years, 73% women, 68% Australian) and 2 (N = 210, Mage = 19 years, 64% women, 59% Hispanic) in Australia and the United States, respectively, participants assumed the role of the driver in a traffic stop as they read the vignette. In study 3 (N = 504, Mage = 29 years, 72% women, 34% English), participants in Australia assumed the role of a citizen interacting with a police officer enforcing COVID-related restrictions. Participants then recorded their perceptions of procedural justice of and satisfaction with the encounter, legitimacy of the police, and willingness to co-operate with police. RESULTS: Across three studies and two countries, we found no support for the notion that BWC presence influenced people's perceptions of police-citizen interactions independent of officer respectfulness and preexisting trust. CONCLUSION: The effect of BWC presence, established in prior research, might operate via its effect on officer respectfulness. These findings underscore the importance of preexisting trust in police and respectful behavior by police officers, even in BWC-recorded encounters. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Deglacial variability of South China hydroclimate heavily contributed by autumn rainfall.

The deglacial hydroclimate in South China remains a long-standing topic of debate due to the lack of reliable moisture proxies and inconsistent model simulations. A recent hydroclimate proxy suggests that South China became wet in cold stadials during the last deglaciation, with the intensification proposed to be contributed mostly by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Here, based on a deglacial simulation in a state-of-the-art climate model that well reproduces the evolution of EASM, winter monsoon (EAWM) and the associated water isotopes in East Asia, we propose that the intensified hydroclimate in South China is also contributed heavily by the rainfall in autumn, during the transition between EASM and EAWM. The excessive rainfall in autumn results from the convergence between anomalous northerly wind due to amplified land-sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly wind associated with the anticyclone over Western North Pacific, both of which are, in turn, forced by the slowdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Regardless the rainfall change, however, the modeled δ18Op remains largely unchanged in autumn. Our results provide new insights to East Asia monsoon associated with climate change in the North Atlantic.

Antarctic surface temperature and elevation during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.

Jurors' Gender and Their Fear of False Child Sexual Abuse Accusations Are Related to Their Belief in Child Victims' Allegations.

We developed the first Fear of False Accusations scale, measuring the public's fear of personally being the target of untrue child sexual abuse allegations despite no actual wrongdoing as well as the fear of false allegations being a common problem in society. The scale was statistically reliable within a diverse sample of 964 participants. Several months later, in an ostensibly unrelated mock trial experiment, a subset of the participants assumed the role of mock juror and considered a criminal case involving an accusation of child sexual abuse. As predicted, (a) mock jurors with higher levels of fear were less likely than others to believe a specific child sexual abuse allegation (but did not differ in ratings of victim credibility nor responsibility), (b) men had significantly higher levels of this fear than did women, and (c) mediational analyses revealed that gender differences in fear partially explained men's tendency to believe the child abuse allegation less than women did. This research is important for developing the first empirically validated measure of fear of false accusation and linking this fear to perceptions of specific child sexual abuse allegations, and for finding a partial explanation for gender differences in mock jurors' reactions to child sexual abuse allegations.

Abrupt Heinrich Stadial 1 cooling missing in Greenland oxygen isotopes.

Abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation have been well preserved in proxy records across the globe. However, one long-standing puzzle is the apparent absence of the onset of the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) cold event around 18 ka in Greenland ice core oxygen isotope δ18 O records, inconsistent with other proxies. Here, combining proxy records with an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation, we propose that a substantial HS1 cooling onset did indeed occur over the Arctic in winter. However, this cooling signal in the depleted oxygen isotopic composition is completely compensated by the enrichment because of the loss of winter precipitation in response to sea ice expansion associated with AMOC slowdown during extreme glacial climate. In contrast, the Arctic summer warmed during HS1 and YD because of increased insolation and greenhouse gases, consistent with snowline reconstructions. Our work suggests that Greenland δ18 O may substantially underestimate temperature variability during cold glacial conditions.

Energy depletion and opportunistic microbial colonisation in white syndrome lesions from corals across the Indo-Pacific.

Corals are dependent upon lipids as energy reserves to mount a metabolic response to biotic and abiotic challenges. This study profiled lipids, fatty acids, and microbial communities of healthy and white syndrome (WS) diseased colonies of Acropora hyacinthus sampled from reefs in Western Australia, the Great Barrier Reef, and Palmyra Atoll. Total lipid levels varied significantly among locations, though a consistent stepwise decrease from healthy tissues from healthy colonies (HH) to healthy tissue on WS-diseased colonies (HD; i.e. preceding the lesion boundary) to diseased tissue on diseased colonies (DD; i.e. lesion front) was observed, demonstrating a reduction in energy reserves. Lipids in HH tissues were comprised of high energy lipid classes, while HD and DD tissues contained greater proportions of structural lipids. Bacterial profiling through 16S rRNA gene sequencing and histology showed no bacterial taxa linked to WS causation. However, the relative abundance of Rhodobacteraceae-affiliated sequences increased in DD tissues, suggesting opportunistic proliferation of these taxa. While the cause of WS remains inconclusive, this study demonstrates that the lipid profiles of HD tissues was more similar to DD tissues than to HH tissues, reflecting a colony-wide systemic effect and provides insight into the metabolic immune response of WS-infected Indo-Pacific corals.

Past climates inform our future.

As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation-a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.

An Efficient Ice Sheet/Earth System Model Spin-up Procedure for CESM2-CISM2: Description, Evaluation, and Broader Applicability.

Spinning up a highly complex, coupled Earth system model (ESM) is a time consuming and computationally demanding exercise. For models with interactive ice sheet components, this becomes a major challenge, as ice sheets are sensitive to bidirectional feedback processes and equilibrate over glacial timescales of up to many millennia. This work describes and demonstrates a computationally tractable, iterative procedure for spinning up a contemporary, highly complex ESM that includes an interactive ice sheet component. The procedure alternates between a computationally expensive coupled configuration and a computationally cheaper configuration where the atmospheric component is replaced by a data model. By periodically regenerating atmospheric forcing consistent with the coupled system, the data atmosphere remains adequately constrained to ensure that the broader model state evolves realistically. The applicability of the method is demonstrated by spinning up the preindustrial climate in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model Version 2 (CISM2) over Greenland. The equilibrium climate state is similar to the control climate from a coupled simulation with a prescribed Greenland ice sheet, indicating that the iterative procedure is consistent with a traditional spin-up approach without interactive ice sheets. These results suggest that the iterative method presented here provides a faster and computationally cheaper method for spinning up a highly complex ESM, with or without interactive ice sheet components. The method described here has been used to develop the climate/ice sheet initial conditions for transient, ice sheet-enabled simulations with CESM2-CISM2 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales.

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate-biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth's history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change.

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2-3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

A customized belonging intervention improves retention of socially disadvantaged students at a broad-access university.

Broad-access institutions play a democratizing role in American society, opening doors to many who might not otherwise pursue college. Yet these institutions struggle with persistence and completion. Do feelings of nonbelonging play a role, particularly for students from groups historically disadvantaged in higher education? Is belonging relevant to students' persistence-even when they form the numerical majority, as at many broad-access institutions? We evaluated a randomized intervention aimed at bolstering first-year students' sense of belonging at a broad-access university (N = 1,063). The intervention increased the likelihood that racial-ethnic minority and first-generation students maintained continuous enrollment over the next two academic years relative to multiple control groups. This two-year gain in persistence was mediated by greater feelings of social and academic fit one-year post-intervention. Results suggest that efforts to address belonging concerns at broad-access, majority-minority institutions can improve core academic outcomes for historically disadvantaged students at institutions designed to increase college accessibility.

Co-dynamics of Symbiodiniaceae and bacterial populations during the first year of symbiosis with Acropora tenuis juveniles.

Interactions between corals and their associated microbial communities (Symbiodiniaceae and prokaryotes) are key to understanding corals' potential for and rate of acclimatory and adaptive responses. However, the establishment of microalgal and bacterial communities is poorly understood during coral ontogeny in the wild. We examined the establishment and co-occurrence between multiple microbial communities using 16S rRNA (bacterial) and ITS2 rDNA (Symbiodiniaceae) gene amplicon sequencing in juveniles of the common coral, Acropora tenuis, across the first year of development. Symbiodiniaceae communities in juveniles were dominated by Durusdinium trenchii and glynnii (D1 and D1a), with lower abundances of Cladocopium (C1, C1d, C50, and Cspc). Bacterial communities were more diverse and dominated by taxa within Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, and Planctomycetes. Both communities were characterized by significant changes in relative abundance and diversity of taxa throughout the year. D1, D1a, and C1 were significantly correlated with multiple bacterial taxa, including Alpha-, Deltra-, and Gammaproteobacteria, Planctomycetacia, Oxyphotobacteria, Phycisphaerae, and Rhizobiales. Specifically, D1a tended to associate with Oxyphotobacteria and D1 with Alphaproteobacteria, although these associations may represent correlational and not causal relationships. Bioenergetic modeling combined with physiological measurements of coral juveniles (surface area and Symbiodiniaceae cell densities) identified key periods of carbon limitation and nitrogen assimilation, potentially coinciding with shifts in microbial community composition. These results demonstrate that Symbiodiniaceae and bacterial communities are dynamic throughout the first year of ontology and may vary in tandem, with important fitness effects on host juveniles.

Characterization of coral-associated microbial aggregates (CAMAs) within tissues of the coral Acropora hyacinthus.

Bacterial diversity associated with corals has been studied extensively, however, localization of bacterial associations within the holobiont is still poorly resolved. Here we provide novel insight into the localization of coral-associated microbial aggregates (CAMAs) within tissues of the coral Acropora hyacinthus. In total, 318 and 308 CAMAs were characterized via histological and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) approaches respectively, and shown to be distributed extensively throughout coral tissues collected from five sites in Japan and Australia. The densities of CAMAs within the tissues were negatively correlated with the distance from the coastline (i.e. lowest densities at offshore sites). CAMAs were randomly distributed across the six coral tissue regions investigated. Within each CAMA, bacterial cells had similar morphological characteristics, but bacterial morphologies varied among CAMAs, with at least five distinct types identified. Identifying the location of microorganisms associated with the coral host is a prerequisite for understanding their contributions to fitness. Localization of tissue-specific communities housed within CAMAs is particularly important, as these communities are potentially important contributors to vital metabolic functions of the holobiont.

Transgenerational inheritance of shuffled symbiont communities in the coral Montipora digitata.

Adult organisms may "prime" their offspring for environmental change through a number of genetic and non-genetic mechanisms, termed parental effects. Some coral species may shuffle the proportions of Symbiodiniaceae within their endosymbiotic communities, subsequently altering their thermal tolerance, but it is unclear if shuffled communities are transferred to offspring. We evaluated Symbiodiniaceae community composition in tagged colonies of Montipora digitata over two successive annual spawning seasons and the 2016 bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef. ITS2 amplicon sequencing was applied to four families (four maternal colonies and 10-12 eggs per family) previously sampled and sequenced the year before to characterize shuffling potential in these M. digitata colonies and determine if shuffled abundances were preserved in gametes. Symbiont densities and photochemical efficiencies differed significantly among adults in 2016, suggesting differential responses to increased temperatures. Low-abundance ("background") sequence variants differed more among years than between maternal colonies and offspring. Results indicate that shuffling can occur in a canonically 'stable' symbiosis, and that the shuffled community is heritable. Hence, acclimatory changes like shuffling of the Symbiodiniaceae community are not limited to the lifetime of an adult coral and that shuffled communities are inherited across generations in a species with vertical symbiont transmission. Although previously hypothesized, to our knowledge, this is the first evidence that shuffled Symbiodiniaceae communities (at both the inter- and intra- genera level) can be inherited by offspring and supports the hypothesis that shuffling in microbial communities may serve as a mechanism of rapid coral acclimation to changing environmental conditions.

Reduced diversity and stability of coral-associated bacterial communities and suppressed immune function precedes disease onset in corals.

Disease is an emerging threat to coral reef ecosystems worldwide, highlighting the need to understand how environmental conditions interact with coral immune function and associated microbial communities to affect holobiont health. Increased coral disease incidence on reefs adjacent to permanently moored platforms on Australia's Great Barrier Reef provided a unique case study to investigate environment-host-microbe interactions in situ. Here, we evaluate coral-associated bacterial community (16S rRNA amplicon sequencing), immune function (protein-based prophenoloxidase-activating system), and water quality parameters before, during and after a disease event. Over the course of the study, 31% of tagged colonies adjacent to platforms developed signs of white syndrome (WS), while all control colonies on a platform-free reef remained visually healthy. Corals adjacent to platforms experienced significant reductions in coral immune function. Additionally, the corals at platform sites that remained visually healthy throughout the study had reduced bacterial diversity compared to healthy colonies at the platform-free site. Interestingly, prior to the observation of macroscopic disease, corals that would develop WS had reduced bacterial diversity and significantly greater community heterogeneity between colonies compared to healthy corals at the same location. These results suggest that activities associated with offshore marine infrastructure impacts coral immunocompetence and associated bacterial community, which affects the susceptibility of corals to disease.